Sun Belt Preview and Idaho Predictions Update

[Cave_Johnson]

Alright, with the college football season technically already started and two Sun Belt games coming up on Thursday I think I've waited long enough on this one.

The Sun Belt has a chance to take a big step forward this season. They'll have plenty of opportunities on a national stage with the projected top three teams in the conference all having big out of conference games against the likes of Tennessee, Miami (FL), Auburn, Ole Miss, and Georgia Tech.

Those top three are of course Appalachian State, Arkansas State, and Georgia Southern. So let's start with them as they make up what I consider the top tier of the conference.

Tier I Projections:

1. Appalachian State: 10-2 (8-0)

The main reason I have App St this high? Taylor Lamb. The top rated passer in the conference from last season accounted for 36 TD's in 2015 despite not accumulating a ton of yards. This guy is very efficient though and I expect App St's offense to follow his lead in that regard. Couple that offense with just enough defense and I think they'll cruise through conference play. I have them losing two OOC games to Tennessee and Miami. Tennessee probably has too much talent for App St. to stay in the game into the third quarter but there is a great shot for App St. to upset Miami in a home game that may shatter all Mountaineer attendance records. Taking Appalachian State as conference champs.

2. Arkansas State: 10-2 (7-1)

Finally some coaching consistency for stAte as Blake Anderson ( doesn't look like a head football coach does he?) heads into his third straight year at the program after going undefeated in conference and winning the Sun Belt straight up last season. They'll start the season with a challenge against the Rockets of Toledo who have really had their number as of late. I have them winning that one at home to get some revenge for the last two blow-outs. ASU also has Utah State and Auburn before starting conference play. They should give Auburn a game, as the Tigers have had issues against G5 schools early in the season lately. Ultimately I do think Auburn takes that one. Put them down for a single conference loss to ULL because....well gut feeling I guess. It's a damn shame they don't play App St. year.

3. Georgia Southern: 7-5 (6-2)

It was a bit odd to see Eagles head coach Willie Fritz make what was essentially a lateral move to Tulane at the end of last season. But after the news came out that the school was going to be placed on probation for the next two years due to certain student athletes receiving inappropriate help with coursework, Fritz's move started to make sense. A former assistant coach in Tyson Summer takes over the program this season after holding defensive coordinator jobs at UCF in 2014 and Colorado State in 2015.

The Eagles return some great talent at QB and RB with Kevin Ellison and Matt Breida both having the potential to be all-conference selections. Still, I see some growing pains for the new head coach. And with tough OOC games against Western Michigan, Georgia Tech, and Ole Miss I see them being a step behind the top two in the conference.

Tier II is next and includes Georgia State and ULL.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Tier II Projections:

4. Louisiana Lafayette: 7-5 (5-3)

The Cajuns had a down year last season in the wake of several accusations of exam fraud and recruit payment. Like Georgia Southern they will face sanctions for the next few years. That's the bad news. The good news is that ULL likely has their QB situation figured out after one potential starter transferred and another made the transition to running back. This should be Sophomore Jordan Davis' job to lose and in his limited playing time last season he looked like he may have been the best QB on the roster. Davis' job should be made easier by the return of Elijah McGuire who ran for over 1000 yards and 13 TDs last season.

The offensive line has some holes to fill, but defensively they have a lot of size in the trenches and some experienced players in the secondary. I see the Cajuns rebounding and going bowling again this year.

5. Georgia State: 6-6 (4-4)

The Panthers struggled their first few years at the FBS level and didn't look to be doing much better midway through last season. At 2-6 something clicked with this team though. They finished the regular season 4-0 as QB Nick Arbuckle went off on opposing defenses. GSU ended conference play with a blowout of rival Georgia Southern before falling to San Jose State in their first ever bowl game.

Replacing Arbuckle is going to be difficult, but the Panthers return 4 of their top 5 pass catchers as well as their full committee of running backs from last season. There's enough talent on that offense to make up for whomever ends up behind center. If their defense can continue the bend but don't break trend from last season they'll have plenty of success in the Sun Belt. That said, they did lose their top two leading tacklers from last year even if they did retain pretty much everyone else.

Overall they have the talent to win 6 and may steal a few more W's if things go their way.

Tier III is next with previews of Idaho and Troy.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Tier III Projections:

6. Idaho: 5-7 (4-4)

I'll keep this one short since I'm going to go into more depth on Idaho for my Week 1 preview. Basically the Vandals blew two huge leads against NMSU and USA last year and finished the season at 4-8. They have a ton of returning talent on the offensive side of the ball and are more deep on the defensive side than last season. Only three games are really out of reach this season but I think they fall to Georgia State on Senior Night to just miss a bowl.

7. Troy: 5-7 (3-5)

The Trojans struggled the first half of the season in 2015 but began to get back on track going 3-3 during their last 6. QB Brandon Silvers showed some promise at times but needs to learn to be more consistent if Troy wants to go bowling this year. This should be an improved team, but with a tough conference schedule and OOC games against Clemson and Southern Miss I don't see them getting to 6 wins.

I'll sum up Tier IV pretty quickly.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Tier IV Predictions:

8. Texas State: 4-8 (3-5)

This team is just not in great shape right now, but I still like them to sneak up on a few teams they probably shouldn't beat to get to 4 wins.

9. New Mexico State: 2-10 (2-6)

I had the Aggies much higher initially mostly due to Larry Rose III who is an absolute beast. But they've recently lost one QB who was a graduate transfer and the projected starter, Tyler Rogers, was just arrested on battery charges. If Rogers ends up missing time even Rose is not going to be enough to compensate for their defense which is not looking to be great. If Rogers can play then I think NMSU has an outside chance to get 5 or even 6 wins. They're going to have to win shootouts, but that's exactly how they won games last year.

10. Louisiana-Monroe: 2-10 (1-7)

The Warhawks just have too many issues to make much progress this year. I see a repeat two-win season.

11. South Alabama: 2-10 (1-7)

Pretty much ditto for the Jaguars but I do think they have more upside than Monroe at this point.

Next post will be the Idaho Week 1 Preview for the game against Montana State. Going with a movie theme for each game this year just to spice it up.