playoff predictions

[DanBengalfan]

I like the CJ Stroud story better than CLE sacrificing their franchise for a sex offender.

Houston over Cleveland.

Miami might be better than KC this year, but that might not matter, they are playing in KC. but, the refs might not be giving KC a "do over" every time they fail to convert a 4th down.

going with Miami over KC

 

[DanBengalfan]

the browns will be "unloading" on some massage parlors after the game, since they couldn't "unload" during the game.

 

[Cincyfan78]

All Cleveland did this year was show has massively they overpaid Watson....without a run in the playoffs - winning all those games with a 1-done QB does nothing for them.

They can't even bring Flacco back as a backup because the minute Watson struggles - fans will be all over the Organization to make the switch....but they can't. Man...that is one screwed up situation.

 

[DanBengalfan]

the only thing Watson is struggling with is his junk, aimed at a masseuse.

 

[jbuck]

good call. stroud was on fire

 

[DanBengalfan]

really didn't think Miami would get beat that bad. KC is back, I guess. as long as they re @KC

...


going with the home teams today

Dallas over GB
DET over Rams

 

[Cincyfan78]

really didn't think Miami would get beat that bad. KC is back, I guess. as long as they re @KC

...


going with the home teams today

Dallas over GB
DET over Rams

Miami had 1 win against a team with a winning record. They were woefully outscored in those games - their offense went from something like (I'm making this up because I can't remember, but it was drastic) 34ppg against losing teams to 17ppg against winning teams.

The biggest blow, IMO, was to their defense as they lost a few key guys as the season went along. Once the defense tanked - the offense got behind and it made it much harder for them to keep running the ball - which was such a key component of what they were able to do in the passing game. Once that went away - teams did what they did to the Bengals - pinned their ears back and simply went full on at the QB every play.

 

[DanBengalfan]

apparently, Dallas sucks.

 

[Cincyfan78]

apparently, Dallas sucks.

I believe they said Dallas was 8-0 at home and had a +100point differential when at home...Of course they gave up almost 50 and lost....Sports, man...sports.

 

[cincygrad]

Miami had 1 win against a team with a winning record. They were woefully outscored in those games - their offense went from something like (I'm making this up because I can't remember, but it was drastic) 34ppg against losing teams to 17ppg against winning teams.

The biggest blow, IMO, was to their defense as they lost a few key guys as the season went along. Once the defense tanked - the offense got behind and it made it much harder for them to keep running the ball - which was such a key component of what they were able to do in the passing game. Once that went away - teams did what they did to the Bengals - pinned their ears back and simply went full on at the QB every play.

I think you're right. They were obviously a different team when guys were healthy and they were never very inspiring against winning teams. That tends to show in the playoffs and it definitely did on Saturday. To some extent this is also what happened with Cleveland. They had about 4 games that they could have easily lost and they were forced to patch everything together to make their run. I give them credit for what they were able to do with those injuries, but sooner or later it will catch up to you as it did on Saturday. This is what would have happened if the Bengals would have snuck into the playoffs - Weakness is magnified.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think you're right. They were obviously a different team when guys were healthy and they were never very inspiring against winning teams. That tends to show in the playoffs and it definitely did on Saturday. To some extent this is also what happened with Cleveland. They had about 4 games that they could have easily lost and they were forced to patch everything together to make their run. I give them credit for what they were able to do with those injuries, but sooner or later it will catch up to you as it did on Saturday. This is what would have happened if the Bengals would have snuck into the playoffs - Weakness is magnified.

The luck factor for both Cleveland and Pitt was insane - and against bad schedules, too. That is likely to show itself not only in the playoffs, but in next season. Especially since both are over the cap and need additions badly.

Bengals played the hardest schedule in nearly 40 years by DVOA (Or something like that) still won 9 games, and basically had no Burrow, or injured Burrow for 12 of 18 games. The more I look at that, the more impressed I am with the job the coaching staff did...despite my chagrin about Taylor's play calling...lol

Another year for the secondary together will pay off huge, IMO. We saw a huge jump this year from CTB...I think Turner will do the same as well as Hill (who played CB mostly last year, and then moved back to Safety so only had this year in his normal spot) and Battle. Add a little depth...still need a bit more along the lines (Reader back...true 3-tech run DT next to him)...but I think we could quickly see a rebound year from this team. At least, I'm hoping...

Doesn't hurt they have roughly $70M in cap space, too. That's more than enough to Pay Chase, tag Higgins, and make moves. Higgins would be roughly $20M...so that still leaves $50M (plus you can free up $10M by cutting Mixon and Scott).

As for the playoffs...Happy to see the Lions win. Rooting for them. Not sure about the AFC...lol

 

[cincygrad]

The luck factor for both Cleveland and Pitt was insane - and against bad schedules, too. That is likely to show itself not only in the playoffs, but in next season. Especially since both are over the cap and need additions badly.

Bengals played the hardest schedule in nearly 40 years by DVOA (Or something like that) still won 9 games, and basically had no Burrow, or injured Burrow for 12 of 18 games. The more I look at that, the more impressed I am with the job the coaching staff did...despite my chagrin about Taylor's play calling...lol

Another year for the secondary together will pay off huge, IMO. We saw a huge jump this year from CTB...I think Turner will do the same as well as Hill (who played CB mostly last year, and then moved back to Safety so only had this year in his normal spot) and Battle. Add a little depth...still need a bit more along the lines (Reader back...true 3-tech run DT next to him)...but I think we could quickly see a rebound year from this team. At least, I'm hoping...

Doesn't hurt they have roughly $70M in cap space, too. That's more than enough to Pay Chase, tag Higgins, and make moves. Higgins would be roughly $20M...so that still leaves $50M (plus you can free up $10M by cutting Mixon and Scott).

As for the playoffs...Happy to see the Lions win. Rooting for them. Not sure about the AFC...lol

I'm disappointed by the defense and I have some concerns. That said, I think once these things start happening in a season, there isn't much you can do but move onto the offseason and get better. The D got demoralized a few times early in the season and never really found their groove. They also weren't provided the luxury of playing in front with the exception of a few games (when they looked their best). The overreactions from our fans on twitter will tell you the sky is falling and that Dax is a bust. Lou now has an entire season of film to work with - It's on him to figure out ways to generate pass rush, limit explosives and be more consistent against the run. I don't see them as a top 10 unit, but I think they can improve their weaknesses and get to the level they were in our super bowl year.

I think the offense will be lights out next year. Higgins in a contract year, a new piece in the slot, more Chase Brown and a healthy Burrow will pair well with the lessons the offense learned this year.

So, I have my concerns, but overall I'm optimistic.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I'm disappointed by the defense and I have some concerns. That said, I think once these things start happening in a season, there isn't much you can do but move onto the offseason and get better. The D got demoralized a few times early in the season and never really found their groove. They also weren't provided the luxury of playing in front with the exception of a few games (when they looked their best). The overreactions from our fans on twitter will tell you the sky is falling and that Dax is a bust. Lou now has an entire season of film to work with - It's on him to figure out ways to generate pass rush, limit explosives and be more consistent against the run. I don't see them as a top 10 unit, but I think they can improve their weaknesses and get to the level they were in our super bowl year.

I think the offense will be lights out next year. Higgins in a contract year, a new piece in the slot, more Chase Brown and a healthy Burrow will pair well with the lessons the offense learned this year.

So, I have my concerns, but overall I'm optimistic.

I think we saw where the lack of experience in the secondary really impacted the run game as well. Those big runs were largely limited by Bates and Bell. Even Apple, who I was never really high on, had his moments where he was at least in the right spot - even if he couldn't make the plays. Hilton even spoke on this saying he felt like he was having to do more to make up for more and it often cost him positioning or being in the right spots. That secondary just didn't have the time to gel, and then CBT goes down twice. Awuzie did what he could, but was coming off ACL - so you lost a step there, and Turner flashed, but struggled down the stretch as the season wore on. I think things will be better in year 2 for the secondary overall.

I think they need a true 3-tech next to Reader. Hill is fine, but I don't think Hill is a full time run stop guy. They need someone to pair with Reader on 1st and 2nd downs/obvious run downs. They need more out of the ends. Hubbard is great but lacks actual pass-rush. Hendrickson is the only guy that is a true threat. Murphy actually had great pass-win rates, but it didn't translate to sacks. I'd like to see him line up where Hubbard is more on 3rd downs, slide Hubbard inside with Hill, and then I think you get more rush (Just my thoughts).

Offensively - they need a RT - I don't think they re-sign Williams...but either way it is a focus. I think they still need to figure out Volson at LG - had a really good last 6-7 games, but those first 11 were bottom 5 in the league bad...Cappa and Karras aren't getting younger, and each had their struggles. I still feel like there is room here to improve.

Chase gets more touches, a healthy Chase/Higgins and Jones in the slot offer some real speed and play making ability to pair with a healthy Burrow. I think learning to lean a bit more on the run game without Burrow, HOPEFULLY, opens up the door to a better mix next year in the run/pass department.

At least the season ending isn't in a "the sky is falling" area - it's an area where clear improvements are needed, but just with health alone, this team should be back to competing for the AFCN title and the playoffs.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think you're right. They were obviously a different team when guys were healthy and they were never very inspiring against winning teams. That tends to show in the playoffs and it definitely did on Saturday. To some extent this is also what happened with Cleveland. They had about 4 games that they could have easily lost and they were forced to patch everything together to make their run. I give them credit for what they were able to do with those injuries, but sooner or later it will catch up to you as it did on Saturday. This is what would have happened if the Bengals would have snuck into the playoffs - Weakness is magnified.

Found it:

Miami went 1-6 and averaged 15.1 points per game on offense against teams with a winning record. Against the rest of the league, they went 10-1 and more than doubled their scoring, generating 35.5 points per game

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I think we saw where the lack of experience in the secondary really impacted the run game as well. Those big runs were largely limited by Bates and Bell. Even Apple, who I was never really high on, had his moments where he was at least in the right spot - even if he couldn't make the plays. Hilton even spoke on this saying he felt like he was having to do more to make up for more and it often cost him positioning or being in the right spots. That secondary just didn't have the time to gel, and then CBT goes down twice. Awuzie did what he could, but was coming off ACL - so you lost a step there, and Turner flashed, but struggled down the stretch as the season wore on. I think things will be better in year 2 for the secondary overall.

I think they need a true 3-tech next to Reader. Hill is fine, but I don't think Hill is a full time run stop guy. They need someone to pair with Reader on 1st and 2nd downs/obvious run downs. They need more out of the ends. Hubbard is great but lacks actual pass-rush. Hendrickson is the only guy that is a true threat. Murphy actually had great pass-win rates, but it didn't translate to sacks. I'd like to see him line up where Hubbard is more on 3rd downs, slide Hubbard inside with Hill, and then I think you get more rush (Just my thoughts).

Offensively - they need a RT - I don't think they re-sign Williams...but either way it is a focus. I think they still need to figure out Volson at LG - had a really good last 6-7 games, but those first 11 were bottom 5 in the league bad...Cappa and Karras aren't getting younger, and each had their struggles. I still feel like there is room here to improve.

Chase gets more touches, a healthy Chase/Higgins and Jones in the slot offer some real speed and play making ability to pair with a healthy Burrow. I think learning to lean a bit more on the run game without Burrow, HOPEFULLY, opens up the door to a better mix next year in the run/pass department.

At least the season ending isn't in a "the sky is falling" area - it's an area where clear improvements are needed, but just with health alone, this team should be back to competing for the AFCN title and the playoffs.

I think the Hubbard/Murphy idea needs to be reversed. Hubbard is good against the run but lacks a little in the pass rushing area. Murphy needs to be more of a situational pass rusher where Hubbard gets more run downs IMO.

 

[DanBengalfan]

i don't think anyone thought Pittsburgh would upset Buffalo, but they played better than I thought they would. considering they suck.
glad BUF won

PHI over TB

 

[DanBengalfan]

apparently PHI doesn't know how to tackle anyone anymore.

 

[cincygrad]

Found it:

Miami went 1-6 and averaged 15.1 points per game on offense against teams with a winning record. Against the rest of the league, they went 10-1 and more than doubled their scoring, generating 35.5 points per game

I mean, there is something to be said for that.... Marvin Lewis made a career out of beating the teams he should (except the Texans for whatever reason) and then getting beat up by the big boys. It's nice to be competitive but sooner or later you want to get over the hump

 

[Cincyfan78]

I think the Hubbard/Murphy idea needs to be reversed. Hubbard is good against the run but lacks a little in the pass rushing area. Murphy needs to be more of a situational pass rusher where Hubbard gets more run downs IMO.

That's kind of what I was meaning. Hubbard on 1st/2nd down. I'd slide him inside to DT on passing downs, and bring Murphy in on that side opposite of Hendrickson.

Right now, mainly looks like he comes in FOR Henderson...I'd like to see the guys with the 2 best win rates on the line at the same time. Hubbard has enough size that he could be solid at DT on passing downs, and enough quickness to give IOL some issues. Then you can add Carter/Hill to the other side at DT as well...again, would be for pretty obvious passing situations.

 

[Cincyfan78]

I mean, there is something to be said for that.... Marvin Lewis made a career out of beating the teams he should (except the Texans for whatever reason) and then getting beat up by the big boys. It's nice to be competitive but sooner or later you want to get over the hump

Sooner or later you have to have a QB who can go out and win you games.

You need an average defense, but without an above average/elite run game and above average/elite Defense - you can't win with a Marginal QB. Dalton was Marginal. That was some of the biggest issues. Then, of course, I think Palmer would have trended towards elite - injury did not help (2 of them)...and he wasn't quite the same. He was also done with the clown show that Marvin had allowed to perpetuate in the locker-room. Can't say I really blame him.