Suh Not so Suh-per Against the Run Last Season After All?

[tpaulus_2]

I know we've all been spoon fed (or force fed, in some instances) a line about Suh being the "#1 rated DT" against the run, but apparently it was just that- a line.

The truth is that he was our biggest weakness against the run last year. Here's an excerpt from an Mlive article explaining:

"According to the league's stat-tracking service, it didn't matter which direction opponents tried to run the ball. The Lions ranked in the top eight defending the run from every angle, whether it was up the middle, off left guard or around the right edge. Well, every angle except one, off right guard, where dominant defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh patrolled.

The 27 times opponents ran behind their right guard, they averaged 4.37 yards, eighth-best that direction. It was Detroit's only statistical weakness."


Now don't get me wrong, Suh was (is) a beast of a DT, and, imo, the best DT in the league, but I also think some have gone just a wee-bit overboard on the man-love for the guy. Turns out he wasn't as good against the run last season as we're being sold on. Certainly not the "#1 rated DT" against the run, that's for sure...



Detroit Lions defense looking to repeat historic performance against the run | MLive.com

 

[Mebert]

I think there is a reason that the sample size of running behind the right guard was so small. Teams only ran there 27 times because Suh was there.

I would be curious to see how often they ran at certain areas, but I bet it was more then 1.8 times a game.

 

[Old Lion]

Not sure that shows that he was not number 1DT vs the run, but it does prove the rest of the Lions defense was just as good if not better. I am not worried yet.

 

[Mebert]

I think there is a reason that the sample size of running behind the right guard was so small. Teams only ran there 27 times because Suh was there.

I would be curious to see how often they ran at certain areas, but I bet it was more then 1.8 times a game.

It turns out that I was curious to see, curious enough to look it up!

Lions opponents ran on average just under 22 times a game against them. If you look at the 5 options (Middle, off left/right guard, off left/right edge), it is about 4.4 runs per location per game if broken up evenly. Teams only ran at Suh 1.68 times a game though. which means the other 4 average around 5 runs at them a game. So while then while the number was higher for Suh in a small sample size, no one ran there because Suh was there. I think if given the same sample size of 80 carries the other spots received you would see that number come down as well.

 

[Thruthefog]

This is why Enron happened. Present an incomplete statistic as representative of the whole.

118 yards last season running at Suh. Now we need the breakdown of those 27 rushing attempts to get a clear picture. Were they consistently getting 4 to 5 yards a run, or did one 'aw shit' play go for 45 yards?

I think statistical analysis of football is useless, but if you're going to make the attempt, do a full study to get as accurate a picture of what's going on as possible. Just throwing an average out there to support a desired result is a little too political for my tastes.

 

[tpaulus_2]

I think there is a reason that the sample size of running behind the right guard was so small. Teams only ran there 27 times because Suh was there.

I would be curious to see how often they ran at certain areas, but I bet it was more then 1.8 times a game.

This is true, definitely a small sample size. We did, though, have the least amount of carries against us last year, primarily because teams gave up on the concept of running against us late in the season...

 

[tpaulus_2]

Not sure that shows that he was not number 1DT vs the run, but it does prove the rest of the Lions defense was just as good if not better. I am not worried yet.

I don't think you can be the #1 DT against the run while giving up 4.3+ yards per carry when teams ran at your gap(s).

Suh is still a monster, again- don't get me wrong, but pass rushing was his strength and the thing we won't be able to replace. Ngata is as good, if not better, against the run...

 

[tpaulus_2]

It turns out that I was curious to see, curious enough to look it up!

Lions opponents ran on average just under 22 times a game against them. If you look at the 5 options (Middle, off left/right guard, off left/right edge), it is about 4.4 runs per location per game if broken up evenly. Teams only ran at Suh 1.68 times a game though. which means the other 4 average around 5 runs at them a game. So while then while the number was higher for Suh in a small sample size, no one ran there because Suh was there. I think if given the same sample size of 80 carries the other spots received you would see that number come down as well.

Excellent research. A learned fan is a credible fan, imo- way to keep the conversation progressing with very good supporting material.

 

[broncosmitty]

So Suh was responsible for less than 7 yards rushing per game?

That seems very good to me.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

but it does prove the rest of the Lions defense was just as good if not better

 

[broncosmitty]

Seriously, 6.88 yards per game against? Is that correct?

What am I missing here?

 

[TBBishop]

I read this earlier and I wasn't that shocked. I brought it up a few weeks ago the way San Fran kept stuffing it down his throat. He obviously played better against the run last year but losing him and replacing him with Ngata doesn't sink our run defense. Something is certainly lost in our pass defense, and we'll see how much, but I expect the run D to be close to what it was last year.

 

[TrustMeIamRight]

I don't see why anyone would be shocked? Suh was an all-pro DT because of his pass rushing and ability to collapse the pocket from the DT spot. He was adequate against the run, but it was far from a strength. Last year was the first time he played well against the run.

Detroit's run defense became really good with the development of Levy, the addition of Tulloch and drafting Ansah, among other things.

If you want to put it in perspective. 2009 (pre-Suh) -- Detroit gave up 126 ypg on the ground. 2010 -- we draft Suh, he is 1st team all-pro -- we give up 125 ypg. 2011 -- Detroit gives up 128 ypg on the ground. 2012 -- Detroit got slightly better at 118 ypg (this is when Levy was started to show progression). 2013 -- we gave up less than 100 ypg. Levy has his breakout year, we draft Ansah and Taylor. 2014 -- we bring in Austin, play a new scheme and everyone on the defensive side of the ball played unreal.

Detroit will definitely miss Suh, but IMO, it will be because of his pass rushing skills. If Ngata misses time, I think it will hurt much more losing Suh. If he is healthy by the opener -- I'm sure the rushing numbers will go up, as there is really nowhere else to go, as it is unrealistic to hold opponents to under 70 ypg. Especially with AP coming back and the guys they face in the their non-conference (Jamaal Charles, DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch, whoever Denver wants to throw in their backfield, etc.).

I still think Detroit will have a top 10 rush defense and absolutely think they will have a better rush defense than Miami, who have a much easier schedule.

 

[tpaulus_2]

Solid discussion all-around on this topic.


Its nice to talk about Suh realistically like this, without all the hyperbole...

 

[lionscanWIN]

truly solid stuff guys though i will chip in here and say that i do think some of the numbers are skewed because of the various sample sizes. no team/ group/ player is perfect and immune from a mistake turning into a big gash.

suh probably had a few runs pop off that makes his numbers look worse than what he actually contributed and his athleticism allowed him to come back and put a lid on the few that would sneak threw from other areas of the line making the whole run D better.

that said i do have terrible memories of teams running traps and pulls right at him and watching him struggle. the combo of the eventual experience of that and a improved defense around him did result in what was a great season for us and a better one for him.

i think with our LB depth and the youth around ngata our run defense should hold up well the tough part will be whether the secondary can progress enough to wash out the loss of his pass rush

 

[Rollingthndr]

Sucks we couldn't pay Suh. It was fun to watch him though. He should still be a monster for 3-4 years.

 

[RobBase]

The truth is that he was our biggest weakness against the run last year.

Alcohol fetal syndrome is real.

 

[RobBase]

I know we've all been spoon fed (or force fed, in some instances) a line about Suh being the "#1 rated DT" against the run, but apparently it was just that- a line.

The truth is that he was our biggest weakness against the run last year.

Congrats on being a semi-functional adult retard, TP.

 

[tpaulus_2]

View attachment 23077

Congrats on being a semi-functional adult retard, TP.

What a classy individual you are.

It makes me sick to my stomach a little bit that you're indoctrinating another generation into your demented, delusional, and dysfunctional world.

Shame you let your daddy issues spiral your life into such a shallow place...

 

[RobBase]

What a classy individual you are.

It makes me sick to my stomach a little bit that you're indoctrinating another generation into your demented, delusional, and dysfunctional world.

Shame you let your daddy issues spiral your life into such a shallow place...

How about you just admit you were wrong.