Start or Sit: Week 7

[Schmoopy1000]

Mahomes had his best game of the year in my league.
Still didnt come close to Baker's points.

 

[tlance]

Mahomes had his best game of the year in my league.
Still didnt come close to Baker's points.

Volume is king.

Mahomes doesn’t have the volume anymore.

 

[Shanemansj13]

Mahomes had his best game of the year in my league.
Still didnt come close to Baker's points.

It doesn’t matter! Start Patty cakes! He is a former MVP!!!

 

[cwalke3408]

Dont want to jinx him, but what the hell.
I started Baker even though he lost all his starting WRs. Figuring this wont stop him from slingin' it.

Started off 13/14 & two TD passes!
(yes, Mahomes continue to ride the bench)

Nice. I unfortunately started Geno over Baker today but came through with the W
Now it's to the point to start Baker no matter what, even against KC next week

 

[Schmoopy1000]

Nice. I unfortunately started Geno over Baker today but came through with the W
Now it's to the point to start Baker no matter what, even against KC next week

that is what I had to tell myself.
He is gonna be like Brett Favre.
Good or bad he will keep slingin' it.

Mahomes is playing like he should.
Just doing what he needs to do. Nothing more.
& with that defense. he wont need to do a lot.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Mahomes had his best game of the year in my league.
Still didnt come close to Baker's points.

It doesn’t matter! Start Patty cakes! He is a former MVP!!!

I said this in another thread:

If you're benching Patrick Mahomes against the Raiders then there is really no reason to roster him at all. Drop or trade him.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I said this in another thread:

If you're benching Patrick Mahomes against the Raiders then there is really no reason to roster him at all. Drop or trade him.

You're not in my league where I have him!

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Volume is king.

Mahomes doesn’t have the volume anymore.

The difference in "volume" between Baker and Mahomes is three passing attempts per game right now.

And that's with the Chiefs sitting on leads for the majority of the year.

If you want to make an argument about guys who don't have the "volume" this year I'd point you to Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

The difference in "volume" between Baker and Mahomes is three passing attempts per game right now.

And that's with the Chiefs sitting on leads for the majority of the year.

Similar volume as Baker, but Baker has almost double the fantasy points.... that's it, you've sold me on Baker starting over Mahomes rest of season. You just make too strong of a point here

 

[tlance]

The difference in "volume" between Baker and Mahomes is three passing attempts per game right now.

And that's with the Chiefs sitting on leads for the majority of the year.

If you want to make an argument about guys who don't have the "volume" this year I'd point you to Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts.

Those guys get a lot of their value from running the ball.

And Baker is slinging it downfield.

Most of Mahomes throws this year have been short area targets.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Similar volume as Baker, but Baker has almost double the fantasy points

Sounds sustainable.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Those guys get a lot of their value from running the ball.

And Baker is slinging it downfield.

Most of Mahomes throws this year have been short area targets.

So it's not a volume issue?

You're right about Mahomes, but this isn't exactly new. Their offense has been running this way for years, really ever since Tyreek left.

But to be clear, Baker and Mahomes are BOTH bottom of the league in aDOT this year.



That's not including this week but I'm seeing 6.4 for Baker and 5.8 for Mahomes with this week included.

Air Yards Per Attempt:
Baker 3.7
Mahomes 3.5

Neither one is "slinging it downfield"

 

[Shanemansj13]

So it's not a volume issue?

You're right about Mahomes, but this isn't exactly new. Their offense has been running this way for years, really ever since Tyreek left.

But to be clear, Baker and Mahomes are BOTH bottom of the league in aDOT this year.

View attachment 378559

That's not including this week but I'm seeing 6.4 for Baker and 5.8 for Mahomes with this week included.

Air Yards Per Attempt:
Baker 3.7
Mahomes 3.5

Neither one is "slinging it downfield"

Ok so knowing this you don’t draft Mahomes bc he was way overdrafted. That is another factor in all this…what is his average draft position? If he is going in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th. You are missing out on a very good or great rb/wr option. That being said, knowing this information and drafting him that high…you deserve to lose

 

[SmokingMonkey]

If Baker (@KC 11th vs QBs) outscores Mahomes (vTB 32nd vs QBs) this weekend might as well cut Patty Cakes off your redraft squads and stream rest of season

 

[tlance]

So it's not a volume issue?

You're right about Mahomes, but this isn't exactly new. Their offense has been running this way for years, really ever since Tyreek left.

But to be clear, Baker and Mahomes are BOTH bottom of the league in aDOT this year.

View attachment 378559

That's not including this week but I'm seeing 6.4 for Baker and 5.8 for Mahomes with this week included.

Air Yards Per Attempt:
Baker 3.7
Mahomes 3.5

Neither one is "slinging it downfield"

Alright…

But all of these stats are favoring Baker.

Including rushing efficiency.

What you are waiving off as being insignificant had led Baker to outscore Mahomes by a lot of points.

The difference is situational. Baker is in desperation mode to score almost every week.

Mahomes hasn’t been there yet this season.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Alright…

But all of these stats are favoring Baker.

Including rushing efficiency.

What you are waiving off as being insignificant had led Baker to outscore Mahomes by a lot of points.

The difference is situational. Baker is in desperation mode to score almost every week.

Mahomes hasn’t been there yet this season.

The difference in pass EPA is insane - Mahomes isn't even attempting value-added passes, just managing the game like he's SF Alex Smith and letting Hunt pound TDs in

 

[tlance]

The difference in pass EPA is insane - Mahomes isn't even attempting value-added passes, just managing the game like he's SF Alex Smith and letting Hunt pound TDs in

And it always used to be they get to the 1 and it is Mahomes to Kelce time

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Ok so knowing this you don’t draft Mahomes bc he was way overdrafted. That is another factor in all this…what is his average draft position? If he is going in the 2nd, 3rd or 4th. You are missing out on a very good or great rb/wr option. That being said, knowing this information and drafting him that high…you deserve to lose

No, ADP is not a factor in determining who you'd start moving forward. This is a completely off topic response to a post where I disproved a false claim about how much more "volume" Baker gets and how much more he "slings it downfield" vs Mahomes.

But for the record, since this is the second time ADP has been brought up, Mahomes was going late 3rd or early 4th this year. QB 2 or 3.

He was still a low end QB1 last year even with a bad second half of the season. When you consider the way he ended last year in the playoffs and consider that the Chiefs were set up to have more weapons on offense this year, how many guys were really going to be taken ahead of Mahomes this season? Allen, Hurts, and Lamar were the only guys obviously ahead of him. Late 3rd and early 4th is where top 4/5 QBs go.

And to clarify, you're responding to a post where I quoted THIS YEAR'S stats about air yards per attempt and ADOT. Your claim is that if you knew those stats and drafted him at his ADP then you fucked up. But that doesn't really track. Mahomes has had similarly low (bottom of the league) air yards per attempt and ADOT going back to 2021. He's been QB 5, QB 2, and QB 11 in ppg each year since then.

In hindsight of course he was over drafted based on his actual stats thus far. But I don't think that's what you're arguing. That's obvious.

Finally, what very good or great player were you guys grabbing instead of Mahomes in the late 3rd or early 4th?

Sam Laporta? Oops.
James Cook? Nice.
Rachaad White? Meh.
Brandon Aiyuk? Oops.
Michael Pittman? Oops.
Cooper Kupp? Oops.
Mike Evans? Nice, but dude's hurt now.
Lamar Jackson? Nice.
Jaylen Waddle? Oops.
DJ Moore? Okay.

That's picks 30-40. Maybe you hit on someone there but odds are you're equally disappointed with somebody you took in that range.

But again, this is all irrelevant to the original discussion.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Alright…

But all of these stats are favoring Baker.

Including rushing efficiency.

What you are waiving off as being insignificant had led Baker to outscore Mahomes by a lot of points.

The difference is situational. Baker is in desperation mode to score almost every week.

Mahomes hasn’t been there yet this season.

Air yards per attempt and ADOT do, in fact, favor Baker.

That wasn't really your claim though. The claims have been that Mahomes doesn't have volume and that Baker really slings it while Mahomes doesn't.

The facts are that their "volume", ADOT, and air yards per attempt are all similar.

The situational aspect you've brought up is part of it, but there's also a lot of variance involved there. The Bucs play as if they are in desperation mode even when they aren't sometimes. It's similar to what we're seeing from the Cowboys or Seahawks this year. Baker has just been hyper efficient where Dak and Geno have performed about how well you'd expect somebody to perform in those same situations.

Regression to the mean is mostly likely coming. Guys in these situations don't typically keep this up all year.

 

[Shanemansj13]

No, ADP is not a factor in determining who you'd start moving forward. This is a completely off topic response to a post where I disproved a false claim about how much more "volume" Baker gets and how much more he "slings it downfield" vs Mahomes.

But for the record, since this is the second time ADP has been brought up, Mahomes was going late 3rd or early 4th this year. QB 2 or 3.

He was still a low end QB1 last year even with a bad second half of the season. When you consider the way he ended last year in the playoffs and consider that the Chiefs were set up to have more weapons on offense this year, how many guys were really going to be taken ahead of Mahomes this season? Allen, Hurts, and Lamar were the only guys obviously ahead of him. Late 3rd and early 4th is where top 4/5 QBs go.

And to clarify, you're responding to a post where I quoted THIS YEAR'S stats about air yards per attempt and ADOT. Your claim is that if you knew those stats and drafted him at his ADP then you fucked up. But that doesn't really track. Mahomes has had similarly low (bottom of the league) air yards per attempt and ADOT going back to 2021. He's been QB 5, QB 2, and QB 11 in ppg each year since then.

In hindsight of course he was over drafted based on his actual stats thus far. But I don't think that's what you're arguing. That's obvious.

Finally, what very good or great player were you guys grabbing instead of Mahomes in the late 3rd or early 4th?

Sam Laporta? Oops.
James Cook? Nice.
Rachaad White? Meh.
Brandon Aiyuk? Oops.
Michael Pittman? Oops.
Cooper Kupp? Oops.
Mike Evans? Nice, but dude's hurt now.
Lamar Jackson? Nice.
Jaylen Waddle? Oops.
DJ Moore? Okay.

That's picks 30-40. Maybe you hit on someone there but odds are you're equally disappointed with somebody you took in that range.

But again, this is all irrelevant to the original discussion.

You went off topic a long time ago so this is approved. You start off this entire conversation saying this...

Good God. Don't start Baker fucking Mayfield over Patrick Mahomes.

What are we even doing here folks? Y'all remember what Mahomes did to SF in the Super Bowl?

LOL you keep moving the goalposts yourself so if the OVERALL conversation is Baker vs Mahomes this meets the guidelines. You already have a stronger team if you drafted Baker in the 10th rather than Mahomes in the 3rd.