Start or Sit: Week 7

[MilkSpiller22]

Air yards per attempt and ADOT do, in fact, favor Baker.

That wasn't really your claim though. The claims have been that Mahomes doesn't have volume and that Baker really slings it while Mahomes doesn't.

The facts are that their "volume", ADOT, and air yards per attempt are all similar.

The situational aspect you've brought up is part of it, but there's also a lot of variance involved there. The Bucs play as if they are in desperation mode even when they aren't sometimes. It's similar to what we're seeing from the Cowboys or Seahawks this year. Baker has just been hyper efficient where Dak and Geno have performed about how well you'd expect somebody to perform in those same situations.

Regression to the mean is mostly likely coming. Guys in these situations don't typically keep this up all year.

JMO but people use term like regression to the mean without really knowing what that means... and in this situation there is no reason to believe he will regress to his mean... the bucs are in a playoff race and not in first, they have all the reason in the world to go all in every game... and to be aggressive...

they are in a division where their offense is much better than anyone's defense... so i doubt any of them can stop this offense...

the bucs do face a good defense this week, so it is possible Mayfield has a weaker game... but that is not because he is due to have a bad game because of previous games...

in fact previous games have no importance to what someone does in the future...

regression to the mean in sports is a very overused term, and almost always used wrong, all it means is that a player is doing better than they are supposed to, and that the player will play like they are supposed to from now on...

 

[Cave_Johnson]

You went off topic a long time ago so this is approved. You start off this entire conversation saying this...

LOL you keep moving the goalposts yourself so if the OVERALL conversation is Baker vs Mahomes this meets the guidelines. You already have a stronger team if you drafted Baker in the 10th rather than Mahomes in the 3rd.

So no real response to all that then? That tracks.

Yeah forgive me for responding to every weird, usually wrong claim you guys are making.

 

[tlance]

Air yards per attempt and ADOT do, in fact, favor Baker.

That wasn't really your claim though. The claims have been that Mahomes doesn't have volume and that Baker really slings it while Mahomes doesn't.

The facts are that their "volume", ADOT, and air yards per attempt are all similar.

The situational aspect you've brought up is part of it, but there's also a lot of variance involved there. The Bucs play as if they are in desperation mode even when they aren't sometimes. It's similar to what we're seeing from the Cowboys or Seahawks this year. Baker has just been hyper efficient where Dak and Geno have performed about how well you'd expect somebody to perform in those same situations.

Regression to the mean is mostly likely coming. Guys in these situations don't typically keep this up all year.

I haven’t looked at the advanced stats in depth.

But I have watched a lot of Chiefs games over the last 5 years.

And the stats do not adequately explain the difference in how Mahomes plays today vs. 3 years ago when he truly was an elite fantasy QB.

Maybe Baker is a bad comp and he is living on borrowed time with his top weapons being out.

But there are still a bunch of other guys who deserve to start over Mahomes on an average week.

Mahomes is a matchup play right now. Which seems crazy to say, but it is the truth.

Against a pass funnel defense in a game where the opposition is going to put some points on the board?

Go ahead and start him.

In a neutral week against teams like the Broncos or Chargers?

Prepare to be disappointed.

 

[Cave_Johnson]

JMO but people use term like regression to the mean without really knowing what that means... and in this situation there is no reason to believe he will regress to his mean... the bucs are in a playoff race and not in first, they have all the reason in the world to go all in every game... and to be aggressive...

they are in a division where their offense is much better than anyone's defense... so i doubt any of them can stop this offense...

the bucs do face a good defense this week, so it is possible Mayfield has a weaker game... but that is not because he is due to have a bad game because of previous games...

in fact previous games have no importance to what someone does in the future...

regression to the mean in sports is a very overused term, and almost always used wrong, all it means is that a player is doing better than they are supposed to, and that the player will play like they are supposed to from now on...

I'm not exactly sure what you're getting at here.

When I say "regression to the mean" I'm saying exactly what you've stated in that last sentence. He is putting up bigger stats than you'd expect him to based on what we know about him as a player and based on what most guys do in these situations. He'll probably put up normal Baker Mayfield stats moving forward.

He probably won't be throwing 50+ times when they're down multiple scores in the fourth quarter moving forward.

 

[tlance]

I'm not exactly sure what you're getting at here.

When I say "regression to the mean" I'm saying exactly what you've stated in that last sentence. He is putting up bigger stats than you'd expect him to based on what we know about him as a player and based on what most guys do in these situations. He'll probably put up normal Baker Mayfield stats moving forward.

He probably won't be throwing 50+ times when they're down multiple scores in the fourth quarter moving forward.

Why not?

Their defense sucks and their run game isn’t great either.

nobody averages 50 attempts.

But I would expect the margin between Mahomes attempts and Baker’s attempts only to grow as we move forward.

Yeah, his efficiency is going to decline without Evans and Godwin. So again this whole comp probably isn’t the right one to be making.

And yes. This week I would be starting Mahomes over Baker.

But I wouldn’t feel great about it.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

And yes. This week I would be starting Mahomes over Baker.

But I wouldn’t feel great about it.

Starting Baker and Mahomes over Goff again this week and have Hunt and Otton in at flex, gonna be a fun Monday night

 

[Cave_Johnson]

Why not?

Their defense sucks and their run game isn’t great either.

nobody averages 50 attempts.

But I would expect the margin between Mahomes attempts and Baker’s attempts only to grow as we move forward.

Yeah, his efficiency is going to decline without Evans and Godwin. So again this whole comp probably isn’t the right one to be making.

And yes. This week I would be starting Mahomes over Baker.

But I wouldn’t feel great about it.

Well their run game is fine.

Statistically better than KC's but debatable if you're talking actual football and the eye test.

The real issue they have I think is that Raachad White isn't that good as a runner. Fine catching passes of the backfield, but the other two guys probably need more carries.

As you said though, the efficiency is PROBABLY going to go down. There are other factors, but that's a lot of it.

He's on pace for 45 TDs right now. That PROBABLY slows down.

 

[Schmoopy1000]

@Cave_Johnson keeps bring up all these weird stats about QBs Air yards & all these other things.
I think he forgets we are talking "Fantasy" football!
Baker has had over 300 yds the past 3 weeks.
He has had 3+ TDs the past 4 weeks straight (5 total weeks)
I mentioned I get points for Completions. He has had over 30 the past couple weeks.
Last week beat Mahomes by 10 completions.
Mahomes has had zero 300 yd games (all season)
Mahomes has zero games with 3+ TDs (all season)
Mahomes has zero games with 30+ completions. (all season)
Mahomes has 9 INTs in 7 games
Baker has 9 in 8 games.

So getting back on subject of Fantasy Football. Following possible points scored in fantasy football. It isnt even close between Mahomes & Baker so far.

Last week was Mahomes best points day all season in my league.
Baker has beat mahomes best game 6 out of the 8 weeks!

You do realize we arent arguing or talking about real football right?

 

[Cave_Johnson]

@Cave_Johnson keeps bring up all these weird stats about QBs Air yards & all these other things.
I think he forgets we are talking "Fantasy" football!
Baker has had over 300 yds the past 3 weeks.
He has had 3+ TDs the past 4 weeks straight (5 total weeks)
I mentioned I get points for Completions. He has had over 30 the past couple weeks.
Last week beat Mahomes by 10 completions.
Mahomes has had zero 300 yd games (all season)
Mahomes has zero games with 3+ TDs (all season)
Mahomes has zero games with 30+ completions. (all season)
Mahomes has 9 INTs in 7 games
Baker has 9 in 8 games.

So getting back on subject of Fantasy Football. Following possible points scored in fantasy football. It isnt even close between Mahomes & Baker so far.

Last week was Mahomes best points day all season in my league.
Baker has beat mahomes best game 6 out of the 8 weeks!

You do realize we arent arguing or talking about real football right?

Dude, it wasn't me who brought up claims about which QB had more "volume".

It wasn't me who brought up claims about which QB threw the ball further down field.

It wasn't me who brought up ADP.

It wasn't me who brought up which guy had been better since week 1.

Every single time, it's someone else. And every single time the claims have been wrong or misleading. I've just responded with stats or an explanation to back up why the claims are wrong.

And again, yes, Baker has been better thus far. We can all read box scores.

I'm sure you can probably start Baker every week moving forward and get good enough production. I would just prefer to start Mahomes if possible.

 

[tlance]

Dude, it wasn't me who brought up claims about which QB had more "volume".

It wasn't me who brought up claims about which QB threw the ball further down field.

It wasn't me who brought up ADP.

It wasn't me who brought up which guy had been better since week 1.

Every single time, it's someone else. And every single time the claims have been wrong or misleading. I've just responded with stats or an explanation to back up why the claims are wrong.

And again, yes, Baker has been better thus far. We can all read box scores.

I'm sure you can probably start Baker every week moving forward and get good enough production. I would just prefer to start Mahomes if possible.

No.

It was you who said starting a QB like Baker over Mahomes was stupid.