Something funny I heard on Seattle sports talk this morning

[deep9er]

no matter how you project ahead, our position today is better than the Seahawks. they're projecting three wins in a row (for #2 seed), or two wins in a row for the West. but this ALSO projects we lose two a row. this is the NFL so IMO, that is a lot of projecting.

don't blame them for looking ahead and being optimistic, but we'll see how it goes in Seattle?

 

[TobyTyler]

There's a good chance it will come down to the game in Seattle. Unless we win this week.

I would say the chances are slim of winning in Foxboro; slightly better in Seattle because, despite his recent success, Wilson is a QB who is easily defensible. Probably about 50-50 overall that the 49ers lose both those games. I would love it if the Seahwks stumbled in Buffalo this weekend and made the whole thing moot.

 

[TobyTyler]

winning this week doesn't eliminate the seahawks from winning the division. It gurantees us a playoff spot but not division IIRC.

If the seahawks "lose" to the bills this week, then I think one more win in the next 3 after a pats "win" would give us the divison... well if we beat the seahawks i think we win the division no matter what happened this week or the weeks afterwards.

Win this SNF, then win the next SNF and i believe we'd win the division.

I think it does because we close with Arizona at home and no way do the 49ers lose that game.

 

[TobyTyler]

no matter how you project ahead, our position today is better than the Seahawks. they're projecting three wins in a row (for #2 seed), or two wins in a row for the West. but this ALSO projects we lose two a row. this is the NFL so IMO, that is a lot of projecting.

don't blame them for looking ahead and being optimistic, but we'll see how it goes in Seattle?

True. Seattle may be the favorite to win that game at home but they still have to go out there and do it.

 

[deep9er]

I would say the chances are slim of winning in Foxboro; slightly better in Seattle because, despite his recent success, Wilson is a QB who is easily defensible. Probably about 50-50 overall that the 49ers lose both those games. I would love it if the Seahwks stumbled in Buffalo this weekend and made the whole thing moot.

slightly better than slim in Seattle.....or slightly better we win in Seattle?

this likely won't happen but who knows.......if the 49ers get into another OT, there isn't as much pressure to win. not saying we play for the tie, but it won't be a disaster if we end up tied.

for Seattle however, if they get into OT......they MUST win.

 

[TobyTyler]

slightly better than slim in Seattle.....or slightly better we win in Seattle?

this likely won't happen but who knows.......if the 49ers get into another OT, there isn't as much pressure to win. not saying we play for the tie, but it won't be a disaster if we end up tied.

for Seattle however, if they get into OT......they MUST win.

The chances of winning in Seattle are slightly better than they are in Foxboro. Haven't you seen enough of what happens to the 49ers when they play not to lose?

 

[deep9er]

The chances of winning in Seattle are slightly better than they are in Foxboro. Haven't you seen enough of what happens to the 49ers when they play not to lose?

if the chances of winning in Foxboro are slim, and in Seattle slightly better than slim.....how do you arrive at 50-50 overall?

i disagree our chances of winning are slim and slightly better than slim. but i understand how a pessimistic person would think this.

chit happens on any Sunday and it applies to Seattle too. no guarantee Seattle beats Buffalo and the 49ers, so why are you running scared?

 

[CalamityX11]

The Seahawks are 8-5, we're 9-3-1 (Fucking Rams), so we're 1 1/2 games ahead of them. If we win Sunday night or the Seahawks lose, we're 1 1/2 games ahead with 2 to play. Our magic number is 2, so any combo of Seahawk losses or 49er victories equaling 2 gives us the division.

A niners win and a seattle loss this weekend gives us the division then...

 

[CalamityX11]

I think it does because we close with Arizona at home and no way do the 49ers lose that game.

I meant qualification, for example, if we win this weekend, no matter what Seattle does, that win gurantees playoffs for the 2012 SF 49ers(as division winner or WC), we lock up a spot but not necesarrily the division after that game.

however, now expanding, if the seahawks lose vs the bills and niners win, then I believe we become division champs after that week(no matter what happens in the next two).

 

[deep9er]

I meant qualification, for example, if we win this weekend, no matter what Seattle does, that win gurantees playoffs for the 2012 SF 49ers(as division winner or WC), we lock up a spot but not necesarrily the division after that game.

however, now expanding, if the seahawks lose vs the bills and niners win, then I believe we become division champs after that week(no matter what happens in the next two).

yep.

 

[TobyTyler]

if the chances of winning in Foxboro are slim, and in Seattle slightly better than slim.....how do you arrive at 50-50 overall?

i disagree our chances of winning are slim and slightly better than slim. but i understand how a pessimistic person would think this.

chit happens on any Sunday and it applies to Seattle too. no guarantee Seattle beats Buffalo and the 49ers, so why are you running scared?

I was trying not to sound as pessimistic as I feel. This is the NFL though and the 49ers are as capable as anyone of jumpi up and playing one good game and upset either the Seahawks or Patriots..

 

[TobyTyler]

I meant qualification, for example, if we win this weekend, no matter what Seattle does, that win gurantees playoffs for the 2012 SF 49ers(as division winner or WC), we lock up a spot but not necesarrily the division after that game.

however, now expanding, if the seahawks lose vs the bills and niners win, then I believe we become division champs after that week(no matter what happens in the next two).

Yes, because then there would be no way the 49ers could have six losses which is what the Seahawks would have.

 

[deep9er]

I was trying not to sound as pessimistic as I feel. This is the NFL though and the 49ers are as capable as anyone of jumpi up and playing one good game and upset either the Seahawks or Patriots..

huh? haaa, nevermind. yep, if there is one team that is capable, it is the 49ers.

i'm not extreme to the other side either, not being overconfident we win either game. just to me, no need for 'sky is falling' now, lets just see what happens to both teams?

regarding the Patriots.......it is difficult for any team to play at a high level every week, harder if you face two good teams back to back, and coming off Monday night. so i'm glad the Patriots just annililated the Texans on Monday.

 

[TobyTyler]

huh? haaa, nevermind. yep, if there is one team that is capable, it is the 49ers.

i'm not extreme to the other side either, not being overconfident we win either game. just to me, no need for 'sky is falling' now, lets just see what happens to both teams?

regarding the Patriots.......it is difficult for any team to play at a high level every week, harder if you face two good teams back to back, and coming off Monday night. so i'm glad the Patriots just annililated the Texans on Monday.[/QUOTE]

Agreed.

 

[MHSL82]

I would say the chances are slim of winning in Foxboro; slightly better in Seattle because, despite his recent success, Wilson is a QB who is easily defensible. Probably about 50-50 overall that the 49ers lose both those games. I would love it if the Seahwks stumbled in Buffalo this weekend and made the whole thing moot.

This isn't sound math, but I say it's 25% that we win both, 50% we split, and 25% we lose both - or rather, without percentages, the likelihood is this: Split, lose both, win both. (I lean towards losing both more likely than winning both because I'm a pessimist, but I unscientifically give both 25% chance.) I think we'd be even more determined and would know a few more things from the Pats game if we lose that makes it less likely we then lose to the Hawks. But if we beat the Pats, I could see us continuing the WWLWWLWWTWWL pattern.

 

[TobyTyler]

This isn't sound math, but I say it's 25% that we win both, 50% we split, and 25% we lose both - or rather, without percentages, the likelihood is this: Split, lose both, win both. (I lean towards losing both more likely than winning both because I'm a pessimist, but I unscientifically give both 25% chance.) I think we'd be even more determined and would know a few more things from the Pats game if we lose that makes it less likely we then lose to the Hawks. But if we beat the Pats, I could see us continuing the WWLWWLWWTWWL pattern.

I'm not even considering victory in Foxboro but there is a chance in Seattle. The big drag is going to be Kaepernick against that great Seattle pass rush. I believe they'll pressure him into almost complete inneffectiveness. Seattle's offense is so bad though that the Niners could win another 10-6 or 13-10 game.

 

[deep9er]

This isn't sound math, but I say it's 25% that we win both, 50% we split, and 25% we lose both - or rather, without percentages, the likelihood is this: Split, lose both, win both. (I lean towards losing both more likely than winning both because I'm a pessimist, but I unscientifically give both 25% chance.) I think we'd be even more determined and would know a few more things from the Pats game if we lose that makes it less likely we then lose to the Hawks. But if we beat the Pats, I could see us continuing the WWLWWLWWTWWL pattern.

ok, 50-50 chances of splitting is reasonable.

regarding winning both or losing both, i lean towards winning both. because we catch New England spent from Monday, and we're a better team than Seattle.

IMO the Seattle game will be harder, because we come off an East coast road game, against a GOOD team, and then have to travel to Seattle.

 

[deep9er]

I'm not even considering victory in Foxboro but there is a chance in Seattle. The big drag is going to be Kaepernick against that great Seattle pass rush. I believe they'll pressure him into almost complete inneffectiveness. Seattle's offense is so bad though that the Niners could win another 10-6 or 13-10 game.

Seattle has a good D, but "great Seattle pass rush"?

the game will have slowed even more for Kaep after this Sunday, "almost complete ineffectiveness" is an exaggeration. but again, this what a very pessimistic person would write.

our offense will move against their D, more than their offense will move against ours. but as always in tight games, it is those "little" mistakes....turnovers followed by big penalties.

 

[Jikkle]

Patriots game could really go any direction.

Patriots could blow us out or we could win big (wouldn't go blow out for us though). Or it could be a close game decided by a few points.

What bodes well for us is we can run the Giant's formula of getting pressure with 4 or 5 and leaving everyone else out to cover the pass. It's kept high powered offenses in check like Green Bay and New Orleans (I suppose you can throw Detroit in there as well).

Also New England's defense reminds me of a lot like Green Bay's and New Orleans' defenses in the past where they rely a lot on their offense's production to force opposing offenses in bad situations.

So while I don't particularly like us against the Pats I do think we have a pretty good shot at them especially if we can establish the running game.

 

[TobyTyler]

ok, 50-50 chances of splitting is reasonable.

regarding winning both or losing both, i lean towards winning both. because we catch New England spent from Monday, and we're a better team than Seattle.

IMO the Seattle game will be harder, because we come off an East coast road game, against a GOOD team, and then have to travel to Seattle.

Ha ha! It looked to me like they hardly broke a sweat.