Some interesting stats on Jay Cutler

[Wounded Bear]

Was reading an article on the ESPN-Chicago website entitled QB Snapshot: Jay Cutler and found these gems:


* In Jay's last six starts, he has not generated a QBR better than 68.7.

* Jay produced a QBR of 43.3 in his last start against the Lions.

* He turned over the ball twice more during the Lions game increasing his total turnovers to 20 (one of the two turnovers, however, was in the last seconds of the game, which was forgivable in my view)

* Chicago's opponents have scored a total of 85 point off of the clubs 23 turnovers, 20 of which are Jay's.

* Jay threw a record high 13 screen passes, but completed only 3 of 12 passes of 11 yards or more.

* Bears faced five 3rd downs where they needed 18 yards or more for a 1st down.

* Cutler has a completion record of 49.5% on passes of 5 yards or more, which is 30th in the league out of 34 QB's. Only Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins, and Drew Stanton rank below Jay Cutler in this category.

* Cutler's 74.7% completion record on play-action passes ranks third in the league, but since the team rarely runs the ball makes the fake handoffs less credible.

Chicago Bears Quarterback Snapshot: Jay Cutler - ESPN Chicago



I guess I knew things were bad, but I had no idea they were that bad.

 

[Center Ice]

Trestman better lose that baggage if he wants a longer tenure.

 

[richig07]

Was reading an article on the ESPN-Chicago website entitled QB Snapshot: Jay Cutler and found these gems:


* In Jay's last six starts, he has not generated a QBR better than 68.7.

* Jay produced a QBR of 43.3 in his last start against the Lions.

* He turned over the ball twice more during the Lions game increasing his total turnovers to 20 (one of the two turnovers, however, was in the last seconds of the game, which was forgivable in my view)

* Chicago's opponents have scored a total of 85 point off of the clubs 23 turnovers, 20 of which are Jay's.

* Jay threw a record high 13 screen passes, but completed only 3 of 12 passes of 11 yards or more.

* Bears faced five 3rd downs where they needed 18 yards or more for a 1st down.

* Cutler has a completion record of 49.5% on passes of 5 yards or more, which is 30th in the league out of 34 QB's. Only Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins, and Drew Stanton rank below Jay Cutler in this category.

* Cutler's 74.7% completion record on play-action passes ranks third in the league, but since the team rarely runs the ball makes the fake handoffs less credible.

Chicago Bears Quarterback Snapshot: Jay Cutler - ESPN Chicago



I guess I knew things were bad, but I had no idea they were that bad.

Paints a pretty bleak picture, for sure. And an accurate one as well… unfortunately.

However, this is rather irrelevant to Jay… Bears faced five 3rd downs where they needed 18 yards or more for a 1st down.

At least two of these, were because of holding calls. One that I know was called back on a long gain to Martellus, that would have put the Bears once again in scoring position with a 14-10 lead.

Jay also converted one of those 3rd and 18's.

But yes, the rest is pretty damning.

 

[JoeyTourettes]

Just to take opposing view- "rose colored glasses" perhaps? We have all brought up stats before and I think we can all agree they can paint whatever picture you want... to me we have to really look closer at what these numbers are saying instead of just taking them at face value or the opinion of who wrote them. I'm not saying he's great- In other posts I'm teetering on Jay...but just for fun (for me) I want to address some of this... Cheers...here we go.... QB apologist extraordinaire!

Wounded Bear;5978165]Was reading an article on the ESPN-Chicago website entitled QB Snapshot: Jay Cutler and found these gems:

* In Jay's last six starts, he has not generated a QBR better than 68.7.
*Jay produced a QBR of 43.3 in his last start against the Lions.
Are we talking TQR or Passer Rating? Because I think these different stats can be confusing- Passer Rating perfect is 158.3 where a TQR or QBR (I've seen it listed as both??) "perfect" is 100. And an Average QB would be a 50. I think many people are used to the other system and when they see 43.3 it looks worse. The TBR which I think this is, can be very subjective, because it ID's "important" plays... whoever calculated the # could view different plays as important...

* He turned over the ball twice more during the Lions game increasing his total turnovers to 20 (one of the two turnovers, however, was in the last seconds of the game, which was forgivable in my view)
You said it, and I'll agree the last one...eh. Adding to the total he's also got a hail mary before the half @NE...and a couple others that have bounced of hands... I can't make excuses for many- but I could argue for about 3 or 4 picks that are questionable as to "his fault" or "don't matter" ... The fumbles- eh... It looks really bad in print just seeing #'s and I think this is a big thing for people to point to: 20 Turnovers!!! But blind side sacks in the act of throwing... I don't think of him as a fumbler before this year. I just don't think it's the same as a RB who fumbles 6 times. But that's just me.

* Chicago's opponents have scored a total of 85 point off of the clubs 23 turnovers, 20 of which are Jay's.
I've seen this a lot this year... does this say more about Jay or about the Defense? The D has to take some accountability for this stat too. If we had a better D and they only gave up 25 points off TO's would someone being putting that up as a slight on Jay? Probably not. We've seen how many games where they can't force a punt- regardless of how the O got the ball.

* Jay threw a record high 13 screen passes, but completed only 3 of 12 passes of 11 yards or more. Pass rush, Oline, Lack of running game, drops... there are lots of reasons for this. But when you see 3/12... it makes you think "HE SUCK'S!" What was the down and distance for those 11+yard passes? Was it just a shot on first down- was it after a holding call- 3rd down? hail mary before half... Was it a throwaway? Do other QB's have success against the Lions on 11 or more yard passes? (meaning it could be the same for lots of QB- but when this is attributed to Jay you just think it's him)

* Bears faced five 3rd downs where they needed 18 yards or more for a 1st down.
FIVE 3rd downs of 18 or more? That's A LOT! That's penalties, lack of running game, bad offense as a whole on downs 1 and 2. They had to have neg plays in order to get to 18 yards- holds, off sides, tackles for loss...etc. That's not all on the QB- but in this context in an article about Jay's failures- it leads you to believe it's on him.

* Cutler has a completion record of 49.5% on passes of 5 yards or more, which is 30th in the league out of 34 QB's. Only Derek Carr, Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins, and Drew Stanton rank below Jay Cutler in this category.
It's a % stat... which can be miss leading- I don't have the numbers in front of me- but I know Jay is 8th in total attempts... (I think Carr is right at 9th) It's like the baseball player who only has 4 at bats and get's two hits- he's batting .500...vs the guy who has 100 AB's and has 33 hits. is batting .330. If you only wrote: Player A is batting .500 and Player B is batting .330- WHO do you think is better?

* Cutler's 74.7% completion record on play-action passes ranks third in the league, but since the team rarely runs the ball makes the fake handoffs less credible.
Again- the % thing- this looks good- but they rarely call PA's... It's great that he's doing that- but what does that really mean?

Chicago Bears Quarterback Snapshot: Jay Cutler - ESPN Chicago



I guess I knew things were bad, but I had no idea they were that bad.

 

[beardown07]

Our offensive woes cannot all be pinned on Jay despite what the stats say. They have shot themselves in the foot, time and time again, getting behind the 8-ball on down and distance on nearly every drive. Slow starts, poor in-game adjustments, games where the Defense literally cannot make a stop, endless penalties, the o-line has been in constant change and the results have been underwhelming, at best, and a number of other factors, including poor play by Jay.

It has to start with the coaching to me tho. Both sides of the ball seem inept, and there is far too much talent for that to be reality.

With all that said, there definitely seems to be a raincloud that follows Jay around.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

OK, let me *try* to be helpful here and push this discussion a little further. I think we can all agree that it is not ALL Jay's fault but a pretty damn big fraction of it is. So, OK, let's put that aside for a second. This issue of the coaching...what specifically do you guys want other than the extremely obvious mistake the coaches have made with calling too many passes? First of all..even on that...some of that is actually on Jay, because he is audibling away from runs too much. But even there, OK, so I take it you guys think the coaches should take more audible power away from Cutler? There are downsides to that, of course.

I actually don't think the offensive gameplans themselves have been all that horrible. I say that for two reasons: 1) the Bears are currently running a really fast short-yardage offense. I think they are doing that because the coaches correctly finger the O Line as not being up to par on pass rushing. In that sense, I think the coaches are right. But the Bears seem to me to be running about the fastest pass calls in the whole league. I haven't any stats to back me up on this, it is just an observation. 2) When you watch the All-22 replays, you see open receivers. They are there. Not every play, but a damn lot of them. Now...Cutler isn't always going that way, but there are guys open enough to throw to them generally. So....what exactly do you think the coaches should do about that? They scheme up a play, it basically works and gets guys open, but turnovers result. What's your coaching solution to that?

 

[JoeyTourettes]

Cali... I'm not seeing the all-22. So I can't be sure what you're seeing.

The audibles: The basic rules I was taught (in what I'm assuming is a more basic college system)
1. Count the box (DLine + LBs) Run play on and you have 8+ in the box you check to a pass.

2. If you see ONE on ONE coverage: Hand signal to WR (fade, slant, hitch) Nothing changes on the line/RB- they do the run play and are none the wiser. (as long as it's out quick enough- before the line goes up field. You're fine.) (a good RB will see hand signal and can set up back side or away from 1on1 side...so to be out of QB's way on drop)

3. Overload/shown blitz- Depending on play called in huddle- you can flip a run to other side. (you may have to move TE/FB/Offset Back...whatever formation you are in.) OR if pass is called in huddle- you can change/adjust the hot route if needed. OR switch from run to hot route pass.

I have to think that is what Jay is doing. AND as a PRO QB should have the ability to IMO.

Some other things- Not quite audibles, but "either/or" plays.
We would do this on almost every run play- you would make the call at the line- Only really designating the side or hole, based on the d line alignment. (sometimes they would shade to side and you would have to call the opposite. It would still be a counter run or power run with fb lead, whatever... just designate the hole. So the play call was something like:
Rog Zip OFF E/O Counter on Two (TE on the RT, FB Off set, Either/Or Counter run, on the second "hut")
and in the cadence at the line- "Down GREEN 254, GREEN 254... set Hut, Hut." the NUMBER 4 was the hole and side of the counter.

For pass plays- based on scouting tape we would have packages for some formations- When in a particular formation- would have 2 plays based on coverage. And that would be the color signal in the cadence. Green meant one route combo, blue meant another...or whatever colors we designated that week- OR food or ice cream flavor or Mascot or whatever...We actually had a "Pistachio" which was always fun to scream out. (of course then you are forced to say "pistachio" even when it didn't mean anything...just like Peyton's "Omaha")

With all that- I'm thinking they are trying to find mismatches- Jay audibling to that mismatch. When you audible it's based on what you see pre-snap- which in the NFL could change very quickly after the snap. What I've noticed over the course of the season is Jay is throwing MUCH quicker- the ball is OUT very fast now-he's taking his first or second read- probably based mostly on pre-snap. JMO. I wish I could see the all-22. Had a scrip of play calls. and knew what they were looking for and why Jay threw that there- and if he was right or wrong.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Cali... I'm not seeing the all-22. So I can't be sure what you're seeing.

The audibles: The basic rules I was taught (in what I'm assuming is a more basic college system)
1. Count the box (DLine + LBs) Run play on and you have 8+ in the box you check to a pass.

2. If you see ONE on ONE coverage: Hand signal to WR (fade, slant, hitch) Nothing changes on the line/RB- they do the run play and are none the wiser. (as long as it's out quick enough- before the line goes up field. You're fine.) (a good RB will see hand signal and can set up back side or away from 1on1 side...so to be out of QB's way on drop)

3. Overload/shown blitz- Depending on play called in huddle- you can flip a run to other side. (you may have to move TE/FB/Offset Back...whatever formation you are in.) OR if pass is called in huddle- you can change/adjust the hot route if needed. OR switch from run to hot route pass.

I have to think that is what Jay is doing. AND as a PRO QB should have the ability to IMO.

No, that's not what is going on. First of all, in the modern NFL, there are rarely 8 men in the box against teams with any passing ability. Even 7 in the box is becoming somewhat rare against teams not named Minnesota or Jax when they had Jones-drew. What QBs are looking for now are (at least) these four things: 1) simple coverage matchup advantages, particularly when something gets exposed when a guy goes in motion before the snap, 2) what coverages are the safeties probably going to be in, based on pre-snap alignment, and 3) what are the inside-aligned LBs doing (whether the MBL or an outside backer lined up inside of the hash marks), and 4) what blitz might be coming. Those are the basic pre-snap reads, and in the NFL, mixing all of that is extremely complex. This is why Peyton Manning is a genius, and most people are not. When I watch a play on All-22 12 times, I eventually can see how the pre-snap alignment leads to the defensive coverage, but I have replays and time and a high-angle camera, and Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady, and Rodgers, etc. do it fast and on the fly and that's why they are paid giant piles of money. Cutler is too, but he clearly does not have the same ability to do pre-snap reads, and his audibles suffer as a result.

 

[richig07]

No, that's not what is going on. First of all, in the modern NFL, there are rarely 8 men in the box against teams with any passing ability. Even 7 in the box is becoming somewhat rare against teams not named Minnesota or Jax when they had Jones-drew. What QBs are looking for now are (at least) these four things: 1) simple coverage matchup advantages, particularly when something gets exposed when a guy goes in motion before the snap, 2) what coverages are the safeties probably going to be in, based on pre-snap alignment, and 3) what are the inside-aligned LBs doing (whether the MBL or an outside backer lined up inside of the hash marks), and 4) what blitz might be coming. Those are the basic pre-snap reads, and in the NFL, mixing all of that is extremely complex. This is why Peyton Manning is a genius, and most people are not. When I watch a play on All-22 12 times, I eventually can see how the pre-snap alignment leads to the defensive coverage, but I have replays and time and a high-angle camera, and Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady, and Rodgers, etc. do it fast and on the fly and that's why they are paid giant piles of money. Cutler is too, but he clearly does not have the same ability to do pre-snap reads, and his audibles suffer as a result.

Very good post, Cubz. Also, it was a great plug for All-22. lol… Just made me look into it.

 

[nomoreshoop]

A lot of drives stall on failing to convert on 3rd and 1, that goes on the run game, not Jay. If Jay is solid on play action, why don't they pass on 3rd and 1 because they obviously suck at running the ball?

 

[anotheridiot]

I think its a pretty strong plus for our defense that they only average a little over a field goal for each offensive turnover.

 

[cubzzzfanincali]

Very good post, Cubz. Also, it was a great plug for All-22. lol… Just made me look into it.

I'm telling you, if you are a serious football fan, you have to get the coaches film. It's really not even up for debate. It is a total mystery to me why the league can't sell us a channel where the live games can be watched with these angles....believe me, I would pay, I would pay! NFL use me, exploit me, please take my money! Give us live All-22!

 

[thunderspirit]

Cutler doesn't deserve a pass for his bad plays, and he's had more than a few of them this season.

At the same time, he looks like he's got the 2012 ghosts running around him in the pocket, especially from the Miami game on. And I have to think a lot of that has to do with the offensive line.

I got a chance to listen to Dan Durkin on 670 The Score last night, and many of his observations can be found in this article. I'll be interested in his follow-up article using All-22.

 

[Naughtymax]

Wow. If Cutler wasn't such a likeable guy and locker room leader, this might suggest it's time to move on...

 

[Wounded Bear]

Cutler doesn't deserve a pass for his bad plays, and he's had more than a few of them this season.

At the same time, he looks like he's got the 2012 ghosts running around him in the pocket, especially from the Miami game on. And I have to think a lot of that has to do with the offensive line.

Yep. I'm a broken record here, but Jahy seems to have some QB PTSD and rightfully so. He was abused early on in Chicago.

I got a chance to listen to Dan Durkin on 670 The Score last night, and many of his observations can be found in this article. I'll be interested in his follow-up article using All-22.

Nice article. When they break down the stats, I'm always surprised.

To me, when I read that article, it shows that the big difference in scoring between this year and last is our Field goal production....(30 TD's/9 FG's vs. 32 TD's/21 FG's). The lack of Field Goals this year amounts to a difference of 36 points out of the 50 point differential between this year and last.

 

[Wounded Bear]

A lot of drives stall on failing to convert on 3rd and 1, that goes on the run game, not Jay. If Jay is solid on play action, why don't they pass on 3rd and 1 because they obviously suck at running the ball?

I've always been a fan of throwing on a 3rd and 1 especially if they load the box and especially for a team such as ours that seems to have difficulties in short yardage situations. I wish we could run it effectively in those situations, but since we cannot, it doesn't hurt to throw a pass.

 

[noonthirtyjoe]

Sorry guys but our game plan does not fit our personal. I'm not gonna bother with a long post. The coaching strategy is horrible and so is Cutler. Any other coach would love to have this offense and be able to win with it. Tdog had some early success, but the league has adjusted to his tape. He has not adjusted back.

 

[richig07]

Sorry guys but our game plan does not fit our personal. I'm not gonna bother with a long post. The coaching strategy is horrible and so is Cutler. Any other coach would love to have this offense and be able to win with it. Tdog had some early success, but the league has adjusted to his tape. He has not adjusted back.

Cutler is what he is… but sick of emotional Bears fans calling him "horrible".

Geno Smith is "horrible". Jay Cutler is a slightly above average NFL QB. The fact is, his contract pays him to perform far above that.

 

[dirtboy068]

i think the bears should really think about trading him in the off season. Bears are spinning their wheels with Cutler.

 

[nomoreshoop]

Defense sucked as they have all year, special teams sucked worse than I've ever seen, so there's 50 some other players that need to be replaced before Jay. Jay at least is middle of the pack, leaguewise in performance+talent. Rest of the roster is pure junk. Even Forte looks weak.