So is this the year to not go heavy on RB?

[Brees#1]

RE: the "unappealing offense"
What RB led the league last season? Freeman (bad offense). Peterson (bad offense). Dougernaut (bad offense). Do you see a trend here? Add in Gurley, Forte and Lamar Miller who were also on bad-to-mediocre offenses. Generally the best backs to own are the ones that are the focal point of their team's offense.

RE: if Gurley goes down
Your season's in jeopardy no matter who your key player might be - if he goes down. But it also depends on the depth of your team. Not all picks pan out in the top half of the draft. I'm a firm believer that you need to limit the urge to swing for the fences in the bottom half of the draft. Ceilings might be higher. But so might risks. Adding too many of those type of players will crush your depth if you need a bench player to suddenly be productive.

Gurley will have a challenge. All players following a breakout have them. Teams have more film on them and they have to learn new things which if they are not prepared for could lead to things like injuries. Often do the injuries occur to someone coming off their first big year. And it's always cocky players that end up getting knocked down pegs. Gurley has even gone so as to say he will be the best back this year and is telling people to draft him. Remember when people though Peyton Hillis was a stud and went so far as to vote him on the madden cover? Yeah stuff like that, Gurley's gonna be better than that but still players longevity is tested in their second years or first year following their breakouts.

And then there's non-injury stuff like with Josh Gordon.

 

[averagejoe]

Well Brees, I agree with you there. Never a good thing to brag.
I believe Trent Richardson made similar claims.
But Gurley may be the real deal. Never had that thought about Peyton Hillis.

 

[Brees#1]

Take it from another homer whose city once had a great defense.
There is a drop-off at some point.
Coaches move on (Dan Quinn), players leave, injuries start to pile up.
Next thing you know, it seems like the D isn't clicking anymore.
Might be a hiccup, or it could be start of a tailspin.
Seahawks D have been on top for quite a few years.
Not hoping for any ill will. Just sayin'.

Seattle has a easy schedule this year, don't think the falloff happens yet. I could get Arizona but what if Palmer gets hurt? If I don't get Seattle, I think I would wait for NE.

 

[averagejoe]

Brees, if you're interested in the Strength of Schedule, you should check out this Rotoworld article. Basically the author updates the SOS based on Las Vegas win odds for each team.

I'm not a huge believer in SOS affecting fantasy, but it never hurts to review what could be relevant fantasy information. And even I found this concept of incorporating Las Vegas odds very interesting!!

Seattle has a easy schedule this year

Don't forget that Carolina was still better than Seattle last year. And guess who has an easier schedule than Seattle? Just saying.

 

[TREFF]

SOS means zilch until week 5 at minimum. Preseason SOS is based on out of date stats, nothing to do with coaching/personnel/scheme changes, nor does it take into account players aging and losing effectiveness, or improving with experience and gaining effectiveness.

After the season is a few weeks old, then the real picture is out there and you can actually make somewhat well informed decisions in which SOS can be accounted for. Doing so before then is foolishness.

 

[Brees#1]

So I am coming to the conclusion that there is two ways here. If I go and get a Brown or ODB if picking early first, I would have to go WR three straight before getting two RBs. I do not trust that Bell, Lacy, or Charles will be there in late round 2. So I would have to scrap RB for three rounds to get the best quality third receiver and settle for RBs that hopefully do better. On the flip end, I go RB I can still get a quality WR next two rounds(if Bell is there, I am snatching him up though and Lacy as well). My plan could be WR WR WR, RB RB WR(only if said players are there), WR RB, WR(only is said players are there) or RB WR WR.

Personally I just feel more comfortable going RB. If I am picking late RB is obvious for me.