SEC and the Next Best 3 Week 3

[Chewbaccer]

I think last weeks games went about as expected except for a glaring two. Wasn't this supposed to be the year that Arkansas competed for the West title? I mean, they played so many close games and shut out two back sliding teams at the end of the season last season and finished 7-6. Their run game and defense was supposed to be great this season. Honestly, I don't know how to excuse a home loss against Toledo. At the start of the season, I said Mississippi State would be back to being cellar dwellers, but they actually had a good showing against LSU, and while the season is still young, I'll go ahead and say Arkansas is going to get destroyed in SEC play. I didn't see anything that resembled a quarterback, and while the defense wasn't terrible, it was against Toledo. This proves once again that preseason hype is just hype.

And as for Auburn, their win over Jacksonville State left a lot to be desired. Their defense wasn't great, but the biggest story for me is the fact that Jeremy Johnson, who was supposed to be so good has looked so bad in the first two games of the season. Fortunately for Auburn, they were able to squeeze out an overtime win, and thus their season can be salvaged and nobody will remember the rocky start if they keep winning, but until I see something from Jeremy Johnson, I'm going to have a tough time picking Auburn to beat the tough competition in the SEC West, especially since their win over Louisville doesn't look as strong now that The Cardinals lost to Houston at home.

As for Tennessee, they showed they can hang with good competition, but they were way too conservative in the second half, and when the momentum went into Oklahoma's favor, they couldn't take it back in their favor. The defense was outstanding for three quarters, but as we all know, a football games last 4 quarters, and in this case, overtime. The biggest blown lead ever at Neyland Stadium at 17 points is a tough one to swallow for Volunteer fans, but not all is lost. It's a loss that I think the team can build and grow from. I believed the Tennessee hype more than the Arkansas hype, if for nothing else how each team played Georgia last season, and I still think Tennessee is going to finish the season as a top 20 team, they just need to learn to finish games and keep pressing.

And it looks as though this will be another long season for the Gamecocks. They lost Kentucky at home, and they really didn't show me anything in the process. They're giving Georgia and Arkansas a run for their money for worst quarterback situation in the conference, and they didn't seem to have an answer for Kentucky. Don't know how long its been since Wildcat fans can say they've beaten South Carolina two seasons in a row.


On to this week's games.


It's Week 3, and You're Still playing a Cupcake?


Nevada @ Texas A&M- I guess calling them a cupcake could be a bit insulting to Nevada, they really aren't a terrible team, but I don't think they're really a threat to play on New Years Day either. A&M has had a strong start to the season. They've looked good in pretty much every aspect of the game. I look for Kyle Allen to have a big game, and for the Aggies to win rather easily. Final Score: Texas A&M 55-24

Northwestern State @ Mississippi State- While a loss at home is a loss at home, Miss State had a far better showing than I expected them to have. Their defense came together, and Dak Prescott had a big game through the air to give The Bulldogs of the west a chance to beat LSU with a very long field goal that didn't quite make it. Time can only tell, but I'm expecting big things from LSU this season, and Miss State might surprise a few folks, including me if how they played last Saturday was any indication of how they'll be going forward. As for the game, I see far far less dramatic game than the one we saw last week when Auburn played Jacksonville State. Final Score: Mississippi State 42-7

Austin Peay @ Vanderbilt- It's just two weeks in, and two losses to show for it, but Vanderbilt's defense has had two strong showings. They held Georgia to just 17 points on offense, the punt and interception returns for touchdowns bloated Georgia's score. With that said, they still leave a lot to be desired on offense. Johnny McCrary has the potential to be something in a year or two, but growing pains can be painful. As for the game, this is one of Vandy's few opportunities this season to get a win, and I think they'll have enough defense to beat an FCS opponent. Final Score: Vanderbilt 17-0

Western Carolina @ Tennessee- If there's ever a good time to play an FCS opponent, I think this is the best possible time for Tennessee to play one. They controlled the game against Oklahoma for 3 quarters, but they let it slip away. This will be a good game to get the team's confidence back, and build some momentum before they play Florida next week and try to end that long losing streak to them. Final Score: Tennessee 49-10

Connecticut @ Missouri- Given how close the game at Arkansas State was for Missouri, I was debating on whether or not to call this game a cupcake. Missouri still has a good defense, and that's fine and dandy, but this is two weeks in a row that they've struggled on offense against less than stellar competition. It's time for Matty Mauk to show he can do something at quarterback, and Missouri really needs to get their run game going. If their struggles continue this week, I won't have a lot of confidence for them when they start conference play. Connecticut is 2-0, but they struggled against FCS Villanova and a lowly Army team. Final Score: Missouri 35-14


Eh, At Least It's a Non Conference Game Against a Power 5 Team

Texas Tech @ Arkansas- I'm not one to think losing to Toledo was just a fluke. Sure Arkansas might beat them 8 times out of 10, but the fact that they allowed a MAC team to beat them in Little Rock is almost as low as a program can get. Toledo might turn out to be a decent team, but at this point I'm wondering if Arkansas is even going to make a bowl game this season. While Texas Tech hasn't play much of anyone, they have been hanging some big numbers on the scoreboard, and while common opponents might not mean much if both teams beat them, Tech did beat UTEP by a larger margin. Tech still doesn't have much of a defense, if they even have a defense at all, but Arkansas looked pretty pathetic on offense. Arkansas will probably keep Tech from blowing them out, their defense didn't cost them the game against Toledo, but I'm not very confident that Arkansas has enough offense to contend. And I'm fairly confident in saying that they won't be able to move the ball through the air if they fall behind or if they can't get the run game going. Final Score: Texas Tech 31-21


This Game Could be Interesting

Florida @ Kentucky- Last season this was one of the more entertaining games of the season. It took Florida 3 overtimes to be able to beat the Wildcats in the Swamp last season, and this season the game is in Lexington, and the Wildcats are coming off a big win in Columbia against South Carolina. I've said in both of the previous SEC and the NB3 threads that I think Patrick Towles has the ability to be the best quarterback in the SEC East, and I stand firm with that statement. His play hasn't disappointed, but Stanley Williams is emerging as a very reliable running back. I'm still not very confident in Kentucky's offensive line, and I think Florida is better suited to exploit it than South Carolina was, and while Kentucky had a good defensive showing last week, I'm thinking it had more to do with South Carolina's ineptitude on offense. I'm having a tough time picking a winner for this game. On one hand, I think Florida clearly has the better defense, but I'm far from being sold on their offense. On the other hand, I think Kentucky has the better offense in this game, but I'm concerned about their offensive line holding up, and if they'll be able to contain Florida's run game for 4 quarters. At the end of the day, I'd rather have Patrick Towles at quarterback than Treon Harris, and given how close the game was last season in Gainesville, I'm going to have to pick Kentucky to win at home. Finals Score: Kentucky 35-31


Anything Can and Has Happened in this Matchup

South Carolina @ Georgia- On paper, one would think this should be an easy win for Georgia, but if Steve Spurrier is coaching the opposition, it's never an easy game for the Dawgs. It doesn't look like South Carolina has much of a quarterback, run game or defense, but the same could be said about last season, and look what happened. Georgia has fared much better in Athens when they play the Gamecocks, but let's not pretend like Georgia doesn't have issues of their own. The defense and the run game have been on point. They've done their jobs, and done about as well as can be expected, but as a Georgia fan, Grayson Lambert starting at quarterback concerns me. He didn't complete a single pass in the first half against Vandy, and while he played much better in the second half, Georgia is going to need a lot more production out of him if they expect to compete for a playoff spot. If the game were in Columbia, I'd be a lot more nervous than I already am, but I'm going to go homer and pick the Dawgs this week. Really I think both teams are hurting for a quarterback, but I trust Georgia's run game and defense a lot more than I trust South Carolina's, especially between the hedges. It's a rivalry game, and anything can happen, but I'm picking the better team to win. Final Score: Georgia 28-17

 

[Chewbaccer]

Certain Events Kept This Game from Being Game of the Week

Auburn @ LSU- We've seen Auburn struggle to beat Louisville on a neutral field. That wasn't a big deal, Louisville was a pretty good team last season, but then Louisville turned around and lost to Houston at home. Jeremy Johnson struggled in that game, and Louisville damn near came back and beat them. Then Last week, a game that I, and most others labeled as a cupcake game, Auburn needed overtime at home to beat FCS Jacksonville State. Jeremy Johnson struggled in that game too. If Jeremy Johnson is going to struggle against a rebuilding Louisville and an FCS Jacksonville State, logic only dictates that he is going to struggle in one of the most hostile environments in all of college football. It's not just Jeremy Johnson struggling for Auburn. Their defense hasn't showed anything to lead me to believe they are improved from last season. I try to find something good to say about all teams in this thread, but other than the fact that they are 2-0, and somehow still ranked in the top 20, I'm finding it hard to find something positive to say about Auburn thus far this season. If they win in Death Valley, it would go a heck of a long ways putting the ugly performances of the first two games behind them.

For LSU, I was expecting a bigger win over Mississippi State, but the fact is they went into a hostile environment and got a big conference win over a team that embarrassed them last season. Once again LSU will be looking for some sweet revenge, and this time, in front of the home crowd. I'd like to see a little more from LSU's passing game and Brandon Harris. That was the only reason why last week's game was close, but Leonard Fournette had a spectacular game against Mississippi State rushing for nearly 160 and scoring all 3 touchdowns for the Bayou Bengals, and LSU's defense for the most part played a great game against last season's Heisman Finalist, Dak Prescott.

For the game, I look to see a more diversified offense from LSU at home. Opening your season on the road, in a late start against a division rival is never easy, and just to come out with a win is an accomplishment. I look for Fournette to have a big game Saturday afternoon, and I expect a bit more than 71 passing yards for Harris. It's hard to judge a team from one game, but I'm just more confident is LSU's run game and defense, and if Jeremy Johnson struggles again, this could be a long game for Auburn. For the second week in a row, I look for LSU to get their revenge. I never want to play in Death Valley, but I have to imagine it's even tougher when you needed over time to beat an FCS opponent at home. Final Score: LSU 28-21


Game of the Week

Ole Miss @ Alabama- Both of these teams have looked great out of the gate. Alabama's front 7 looks dominant, their run game has been great, and Jake Coker has looked solid at quarterback. Two game in and the least amount of points Ole Miss has scored was 73 last week against Fresno State. Last year, this was one of the better games of the season. Ole Miss scored the upset in Oxford, and they rode a top 10 ranking for much of the season until they fell apart towards the end of the season when we saw the bad version of Bo Wallace show up a lot more often than the good version. I know two cupcakes to start the season isn't very impressive, but to hang over 70 points in back to back weeks is a bit of a head turner. Will they hang 70 or anything close to it against Alabama? No, but as strong as Bama's front 7 has been, they still have some holes in the secondary, and Chad Kelly looks like he's good enough to move the ball through the air against Bama and put some points on the board. It's hard to gauge how good a team's defense is when they really haven't needed it and the second quarter becomes garbage time, but Ole Miss has had some big recruiting classes lately, and I know the talent is there on defense, but it'll be interesting to see how they do in the spot light of a late night game in Tuscaloosa against an Alabama team with both revenge for last season's loss and dreams of a national championship on their mind.

For Bama, I think their best bet like always is to do what they do best. Pound the ball with Henry and Drake, and execute when the time comes to throw the ball and play great defense. With Henry supplying the power and Drake supplying the outside moves, Bama's run game will be hard to stop, especially as the game wears on and Ole Miss's front 7 begins to tire. Bama's offensive line has looked solid so far this season, and I look for them to keep opening up holes for their two headed monster at running back, and give Coker enough time when he needs to throw. I have little doubt that Bama's front 7 will stop Ole Miss's run game. Running the ball hasn't been a strength of the Rebels, but this is by far the best passing attack Bama has faced thus far this season, and their secondary has been a problem for them the past couple of seasons, and they will need to step up their game for this matchup.

For the game, I think both teams will get their points. I look for Ole Miss to be leading at half time, but I look for Bama to start controlling the time of possession battle and keeping Ole Miss's offense off the field in the second half and just wear down the Rebel's defense with the relentless pounding of Derrick Henry and Kenyon Drake. It'll be hard for Ole Miss to score when they don't have the ball, and while Ole Miss should have a decent defense, they won't be able to withstand Bama's ground and pound. It's a formula we've seen time and time again from Bama, and I think this is the best Bama team we've seen in a few years. I wouldn't be completely shocked if Ole Miss scored another upset against Bama, but at the end of the day, Bama is a legitimate National Championship contender, the game is in Tuscaloosa, I trust Bama's defense more and I don't see Ole Miss stopping Bama's run game, or being able win the time of possession battle. Plus love him or hate him, not many teams can beat Nick Saban two years in a row. Final Score: Alabama 38-27


The Next Best 3


Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame- Man, this game would have been a hell of a lot better had Zaire not went down for the season last week for Notre Dame, but DeShaun Kiser wasn't too bad in relief, and he threw the game winning touchdown against Virginia. We'll really get to see what Kiser has this week against Georgia Tech in Atlanta. The thing that concerns me about Notre Dame though is how they struggled against lowly Virginia, even when Zaire was in the game. Notre Dame's defense didn't show me much against Virginia, and I think Texas just has a piss poor offense. The triple option attack with good atheletes is tough to defend when you don't see it every year, and Georgia Tech's hopes for the season are just as high as Notre Dame's, and I don't see a backup QB beating Georgia Tech at Bobby Dodd. Final Score: Georgia Tech 42-28


BYU @ UCLA- Not a bad way to start the year for BYU. A hail Mary win over Nebraska and beating Boise State. The Cougars look like they have a pretty solid offense and they look to be the front runners for the mid major to play on New Years day. I haven't had the opportunity to watch UCLA play this season, but from the highlights and box scores, it looks like Josh Rosen is picking up where Brett Hundley left off, and their defense has been pretty dang good too. It took a Hail Mary to beat Nebraska, and Boise State fans themselves have said they don't like their quarterback situation. Mangum has filled in nicely for Taysom Hill, but I'm not sure he's ready for this big of a stage yet. UCLA is the more talented team, and I don't see them losing to BYU at home. Final Score: UCLA 37-21


Nebraska @ Miami- There's really not a lot to choose from with ranked teams, but this could be an interesting game between tow storied programs in a stretch of down seasons. Miami is 2-0 and have blown out both cupcakes they've played. Nebraska is 1-1, blowing out a cupcake last week, and they were a miraculous play away from beating a very good BYU team. This is Mike Riley's first season as coach for Nebraska, and this is a chance for him to get his first win against a power 5 team as their coach. Really, I haven't seen Miami play this season, but the last few years they have had depth issues, and until proven different I'm going to assume the same is true for this season, whether it's a smart move or not. Terrell Newby has looked pretty good replacing Ameer Abdullah and I think Nebraska is an overall better team. Final Score: Nebraska 27-19

 

[4down20]

Disagree about Arkansas. I moved them out of the top25 for obvious reasons, but I think they got caught with their pants down and that they are actually a better team than Toledo.

Bert spent too much time talking shit and looking towards Texas Tech this weekend and got slapped in the jaw. Tasted a bit of karma, but I'm guessing Arkansas will still be a decent team while every anti-SEC hater will cite the game for the next 10 years as proof the SEC is over-rated.

If they lay another egg this weekend, I'll change my opinion, but I think they pull out the win against Texas Tech.

 

[Rebel]

Good read. A lot of solid points.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Disagree about Arkansas. I moved them out of the top25 for obvious reasons, but I think they got caught with their pants down and that they are actually a better team than Toledo.

Bert spent too much time talking shit and looking towards Texas Tech this weekend and got slapped in the jaw. Tasted a bit of karma, but I'm guessing Arkansas will still be a decent team while every anti-SEC hater will cite the game for the next 10 years as proof the SEC is over-rated.

If they lay another egg this weekend, I'll change my opinion, but I think they pull out the win against Texas Tech.

I think Arkansas is a better team than Toledo, and they might beat Tech, but I still don't think they're as good as the 7-6 team they were last season.

 

[4down20]

I think Arkansas is a better team than Toledo, and they might beat Tech, but I still don't think they're as good as the 7-6 team they were last season.

We'll see. This weekend should give us a good idea of where they are.

 

[Jakology]

Great read, but the Georgia Tech Notre Dame game is at South Bend. I'd be a lot more confident if we were at home.

 

[Wild Turkey]

Disagree about Arkansas. I moved them out of the top25 for obvious reasons, but I think they got caught with their pants down and that they are actually a better team than Toledo.

Bert spent too much time talking shit and looking towards Texas Tech this weekend and got slapped in the jaw. Tasted a bit of karma, but I'm guessing Arkansas will still be a decent team while every anti-SEC hater will cite the game for the next 10 years as proof the SEC is over-rated.

If they lay another egg this weekend, I'll change my opinion, but I think they pull out the win against Texas Tech.

They have been killed by injuries there is a good chance Beliema loses this team. Right now they could go either way.

 

[handicappers]

Thanks for the post, Chewie. Good read.

 

[Chewbaccer]

Great read, but the Georgia Tech Notre Dame game is at South Bend. I'd be a lot more confident if we were at home.

Facepalm on my part.

I don't really have an excuse. Guess I was rushing to get done towards the end.

Too late to edit now too. Appreciate the correction.

 

[Jakology]

Facepalm on my part.

I don't really have an excuse. Guess I was rushing to get done towards the end.

Too late to edit now too. Appreciate the correction.

I just now noticed who your team is. Let me rephrase. That was the shittiest thing I have ever read, and it made my eyes bleed.

 

[Chewbaccer]

I just now noticed who your team is. Let me rephrase. That was the shittiest thing I have ever read, and it made my eyes bleed.

Always nice making a Tech fan bleed.

 

[4down20]

Always nice making a Tech fan bleed.

That's the whole reason they left the SEC.

 

[Jakology]

Always nice making a Tech fan bleed.

At home this year, but I doubt we'll beat Georgia two years in a row. I predicted 2 losses. If we beat you again, I think we have a shot at the playoffs. But I'm not banking on it at all.

 

[Deep Creek]

I think Arkansas is a better team than Toledo, and they might beat Tech, but I still don't think they're as good as the 7-6 team they were last season.

My Miners lost their good RB in that game is the reason it got more lopsided than the Arkie game. The only way the Red Faders win ANY game is if they outscore the opponent. It can happen but I'm still not buying the Tech defense has improved any.

 

[Jakology]

That's the whole reason they left the SEC.

You know good and well why Georgia Tech left if you know your Alabama history. I'm not going to get into it to save others from building more hatred towards you. Love watching Alabama football, but I hate you until the end. Almost as much as Georgia.

 

[Chewbaccer]

At home this year, but I doubt we'll beat Georgia two years in a row. I predicted 2 losses. If we beat you again, I think we have a shot at the playoffs. But I'm not banking on it at all.

I wish I was that confident. I'll keep giving them homer votes for the moment, but eventually, we're gonna have to pass the ball.

 

[gandog56]

I wonder why Alabama never seems to get a placekicker worth a damn? I get tired of watching them march all the way down the field only to get no points because of yet another missed field goal.

 

[Chewbaccer]

I wonder why Alabama never seems to get a placekicker worth a damn? I get tired of watching them march all the way down the field only to get no points because of yet another missed field goal.

It does boggle the mind. Hell, a lot of mid majors have good kickers.

While Marshall Morgan had a rough game against Vanderbilt, he's been rock solid throughout his career. Really, as a Georgia fan, I haven't had to suffer through a shitty kicker in a while. Brandon Coutu and Blair Walsh had excellent college careers too.

 

[4down20]

You know good and well why Georgia Tech left if you know your Alabama history. I'm not going to get into it to save others from building more hatred towards you. Love watching Alabama football, but I hate you until the end. Almost as much as Georgia.

Which excuse are you going to use? Officially it's because the SEC didn't adopt recruiting numbers under 140 and he Cartman'd GT's fat ass right outta the conference.

Or are you trying to refer to the game in which the GT player got hurt real bad, and your Keith Obermann football coach demanded an apology from Bear and Bear told him to pound sand?