Season wrap

[Illinest]

Are there two games left? Yeah I guess there are but I don't care. I'm barely watching scores even. Feel free to add to my list because I'm doing the points that most interested me.

Start with the bad.
It's terrible that Pedro Alvarez crapped out so bad. With Pedro we might've been a legitimate lineup. Still could happen if he figures something out but there are doubts and questions now that I'd rather we didn't have to entertain. Now there's a story in the PG about him adding a toe-tap to correct his timing. I don't know what his problem is but if a toe-tap gets his average north of .250 then I'll take it.

All the pitching prospects in the high minors were a disappointment. Lincoln and Locke had moments, but nothing close to what we wanted to see. Unimpressed. As far as I'm concerned we have a bunch of guys who should be in competition to be the first call-up or a middle relief arm out of the bullpen.

All of Neil's FA acquisitions were bad.

The season was bad, though it went a lot better than expected. Still another losing season. I don't understand the philosophy of going into a season knowing that you aren't going to win. We have this argument all the time about acquiring FA talent but there was really no reason to believe that this would be a even as good as it turned out. Karstens and Morton had dramatic and unexpected turnarounds to get us even this far.


The good

Andrew McCutchen's performance tailed off late but he did in fact force a spot for himself on the all-star team. There is one player at least who we can count on to perform well.

Charlie Morton and Jeff Karstens both had dramatic improvements. Morton re-worked his delivery and Karstens demonstrated an advanced understanding of how to pitch. I think we should expect some regression from each of them but even still I'm comfortable with them in the rotation to start the 2012 season.

Joel Hanrahan - nice work hammer.

Alex Presley keeps hitting? I don't even know. I like having him in the lineup and I don't see any reason to tear him down but I can't get over the feeling that he's cinderella at the ball. The path he took to get here is atypical. What's even weirder is that he's hitting for extra bases. Look at his slugging! He's ahead of McCutchen right now.
Well he hasn't done a thing to lose his spot but I can't bring myself to relax on him just yet.

Walker, McKenry, Tabata, Jones and a few others have demonstrated that they belong on a major league roster in some capacity. In Jones and McKenry's case I think it's clear that they're good bench players rather than mediocre starters but there's nothing wrong with that. They won't cost a lot of money.


Offseason plans - We have no choice but to give Alvarez another shot. I don't think we need to give him that shot at 3B necessarily, but we do need to plan to get him at-bats.
Pursue a trade for a Cedeno replacement, but be prepared to pay him at least one more year.
Walker stays at 2B and we hope that he can develop more consistency and eliminate the slumps that plagued him this year.
First base is a free agent hole. Jones shouldn't be counted on to start, Pearce is done, Hague doesn't appear to be in the Pirate's plans, and I don't think it's a good idea to bring back Lee.
The outfield shouldn't be messed with. Tabata, Presley, McC, and with Jones making occasional starts as well. Marte will arrive eventually and that makes five. Keep Xavier Paul on as a placeholder.
Catcher - keep McKenry and pick up Snyders option OR someone needs to get with Doumit and fix the things that were pointed out in the article I linked last week. Either way - Doumit or Snyder. Don't bother with FA.
SP - Morton, McDonald, Karstens, Maholm.
Then make a play for a real pitcher.

All told - with one of the catchers coming off the books it should be close to enough to cover the other catcher's pay raise and the pay raise for Maholm. Most of the rest of the guys on the roster are going to be getting tiny pay raises that won't amount to much.

The fans have more than done their part this year. This was the fourth highest attendance figure in the team's history believe it or not. It is time for NH to reciprocate. Give us a starting pitcher who can take us to the next level. Doesn't need to be a Cy Young candidate but I think we deserve a guy who can post a sub 4 ERA.

 

[element1286]

Offseason priority #1 is signing McCutchen
#2 Pick up Maholm's option, non tender Ohlendorf, pick up Cedeno and Snyder's options, do not pick up Doumit's option
#3 Find a trading partner to upgrade the major league roster, bringing in a starting caliber position player or starting pitcher
#4 Sign Clint Barmes
#5 Check in on CJ Wilson, Jeff Francis, and Kyle Davies (in that order)
#6 Check in on the free agent catcher market

 

[magnumo]

A position by position look

1. Starting Pitchers: 2011 - Morton, McDonald, Karstens, Maholm, Correia
Analysis: Not good enough to be competitive
2012: Need someone to lead the staff, likely from trade or FA (without that, will be worse than 2011)

2. Catcher: 2011 - Snyder/Doumit and then McKenry
Analysis: Without injuries, competitive
2012: Need to bring back Doumit or Snyder (otherwise, will be worse)

3. First Base: 2011 - Overbay, Jones, Lee
Analysis: Not good enough to be competitive with Overbay or Jones there
2012: Re-sign Lee (and hope he performs), or Jones/Wood-Hague platoon, or FA or trade acquisition (big hole)

4. Second Base: 2011 - Walker
Analysis: Good but not great
2012: Walker (no significant change likely, small improvement possible)

5. Third Base: 2011 - Alvarez, Harrison, Wood
Analysis: Pretty bad
2012: Likely Alvarez again (would be hard NOT to improve, but breakout seems unlikely)

6. Shortstop: 2011 - Cedeno
Analysis: OK
2012: No significant change (if they keep Cedeno)

7,8,9: Outfield: 2011 - Presley, McCutchen, Tabata, along with Jones, Paul, Ludwick
Analysis: Other than injuries and lack of power, OK
2012: Hard to predict; could go either way..... small improvement seems likely

Bullpen & Bench: To early to speculate, but I'll be happy if they perform as well as in 2011.

So, where will improvement come from? :ballchain:

I see the biggest needs as a dominant starting pitcher, a 1B with power, and a resurgence from Alvarez (in other words, the same needs as during the past off-season). If all three of those things happen, the Pirates will improve significantly over 2011.

Seems to me that the best possible move NH could make would be to trade McCutchen now (while his value is very high) for a young high-potential starting pitcher and a young power-hitting first baseman (e.g. Cueto or Leake plus Yonder Alonso from the Reds). And if Huntington has to add a pitching prospect to the trade, so be it. (I don't follow other teams closely enough to come up with other viable examples.)

I expect McCutchen and his agent to reject any contract which buys out free-agent years. After trading Cutch, the team could move Presley or Tabata to CF for now (hoping Marte will arrive soon) and let Jones take most of the starts in the 3rd OF position.

By the way, given Huntington's trade record, I hesitated to advocate a trade of McCutchen..... and such a trade clearly would be a risk. However, if the players acquired in the proposed trade pan out, two of the team's biggest needs would be filled, the Pirates could be better in 2012 even if Alvarez continues to struggle, and Huntington eventually would be hailed as a hero. If they don't pan out, Huntington probably would get fired. But if he doesn't do something bold (like trading McCutchen), he's likely to get fired anyway, when the 2012 team fails to improve.

 

[element1286]

There is no way to get equal value for McCutchen in a trade now. His trade value is astronomical, one of the top 5 most valuable commodities in the majors. Teams will have to give up too much to satisfy the demands the Pirates should have for him that trading for McCutchen won't be worth it to them because it would cripple other parts of their organization.

 

[thecrow124]

I just wrote a long response to this and it got eaten by the cyber monster.

In short, McCutchen isn't ever going to sign away FA years in Pittsburgh, but he can't be traded....see elements response.

Leave Walker alone, he is solid but not spectacular, best fielding % of all NL 2Bmen.

Presley should be starter going into next year until he is outplayed by 2 OFers.

Pedro sucks, I can't wait until he is gone.

Bullpen should be strong without hitting the FA pool next year....lots of cheap internal options.

Rotation should be IMPROVED 1-3 Morton, Karstens, and McDonald will all be better. Lincoln should be #4 going into spring. #5 is a crap shoot.

Let Doumit, Snyder, Maholm, Ohlendorf and Cedeno go, save the money and add it to the increased revenue from attendance and make a run at Prince Fielder, go strong.

 

[magnumo]

There is no way to get equal value for McCutchen in a trade now. His trade value is astronomical, one of the top 5 most valuable commodities in the majors. Teams will have to give up too much to satisfy the demands the Pirates should have for him that trading for McCutchen won't be worth it to them because it would cripple other parts of their organization.

A thought and a question:

Thought: I think you are over-valuing McCutchen by a significant amount.

Question: Do you think McCutchen for Cueto or Leake plus Alonso is a fair trade?

 

[Illinest]

I feel pretty confident in guessing that there has never before been an all-star with a year of entry level and 4 years of arbitration hit the market.

The value won't come so much from McC's performance relative to other centerfielders - the value will be the fact that 29 other teams will have a legitimate shot at acquiring him AND being able to afford him for 5 years. Even small market teams will be in on it.

Of course the same argument holds true when you look at it from our perspective. Why would we get rid of him now when he is only going to cost about 600k? We can get good service years out of him now and still get a good (though arguably slightly diminished) return out of him 4 years from now.

And then there's the other thing that I think none of us are counting on but all of us are hoping for. What if he hasn't hit his ceiling yet?
If he's got this much value now, what if he becomes a perennial gold glove 30/30 CF? You're opting to trade him now before he even reaches his prime years? Most players enjoy their best season at the age of 27. Wait until 2014 at a minimum please.

 

[WVUinVegas]

 

[element1286]

A thought and a question:

Thought: I think you are over-valuing McCutchen by a significant amount.

Question: Do you think McCutchen for Cueto or Leake plus Alonso is a fair trade?

I don't think I am considering he is young, under contract for a while, and has been a consistent performer coming off a career season.

It's not terrible, but it is quantity for quality. Cueto and Leake look like 2-3 WAR pitchers. Alonso is valuable, but he isn't a star in the making, most likely a solid regular in the making.

Guys like McCutchen are scare, Cueto and Leake aren't scarce.

 

[thedddd]

I don't think I am considering he is young, under contract for a while, and has been a consistent performer coming off a career season.

It's not terrible, but it is quantity for quality. Cueto and Leake look like 2-3 WAR pitchers. Alonso is valuable, but he isn't a star in the making, most likely a solid regular in the making.

Guys like McCutchen are scare, Cueto and Leake aren't scarce.

This is why you don't trade him now. Also the last line what if either doesn't live up to their highest potential. Then this team is set back a few years from any building that has been done.

My other thought is if you trade him now for potential that will also stop any meaningful FA from thinking of coming to Pittsburgh for years to come. It is already bad enough this will make it worse.

 

[magnumo]

I don't think I am considering he is young, under contract for a while, and has been a consistent performer coming off a career season.

Yes, McCutchen is young and under the Pirates' control through 2015. However, I don't see 2011 as a "career season." (If it is, his career will be above average, but not stellar.) Here are his offensive numbers:

Year....OPS....BA....OBP...SLG....HR..RBI...BB....K.....SB...CS
2009--.836--.286--.365--.471--12--54---54---83---22---5--(rookie)
2010--.814--.286--.365--.449--16--56---70---89---33--10
2011--.820--.259--.364--.456--23--89---89--126---23--10

- OPS & OBP have "marked time" since his rookie season
- 2011 batting average was his worst
- HR's have steadily increased, but slugging was best as a rookie
- RBI's in 2011 can be attributed to his position in the lineup
- 2011 K's don't look good
- 2011 SB-CS numbers are worst of his career

The biggest argument AGAINST trading McCutchen now (in my opinion) is that he may become a better player over the next year or two. If he does, that will increase his trade value. Obviously, the decrease in years of control will reduce his trade value. So the question becomes, will the increase from his hoped-for performance exceed the decrease from fewer years of control. That will depend on how much his performance improves.

McCutchen and his agent have sent pretty clear signals that they're not willing to give up any free agent years. If that's the case, no multi-year deal is likely. In my opinion, the Pirates WILL trade McCutchen. The only question is WHEN.

If it were up to me, I would NOT trade McCutchen during the upcoming offseason, for several reasons:
- I'd like to have more confidence that Marte is the real deal.
- I'd like to see Tabata and Presley come back strong in 2012.
- Another year will help further evaluate Gorkys' potential, as well.
- Like everyone else, I hope McCutchen improves.
- I'm already resigned to 2012 being a bad year for the Bucs.
It's always good to deal from strength. There seems to be a good chance that the Pirates' position of strength in CF will be even stronger in 2012 or 2013.

The biggest argument FOR trading McCutchen (now) is that he could bring back enough value to improve the team. The only other possibility I see for significant improvement in 2012 is Pedro Alvarez finding himself.

 

[WVUinVegas]

I'm not as versed in baseball and baseball stats as everyone else here, but to me you always keep a 24 year old who is already the 2nd best (Kemp) player at his position in the National League.

 

[element1286]

As far as his career to date it has been a career year, doesn't mean it has to be the best year moving forward.

His defense has improved, I think that is readily apparent, no more dropping easy flyballs, less airmailing of throws, better routes leading to more catches.

Full disclosure on the offensive stats. Run scoring isn't the same every year, run scoring was down this year all over the league. Considering the run scoring environment, it was statistically his best year at the plate.

McCutchen's stats
Year: OPS - OPS+
2009: .836 - 121
2010: .817 - 121
2011: .820 - 127

Yea his batting average was down, but to me it is part of the process of becoming a more complete hitter, his batting average was down but his OBP was the same. There is no reason to think he can't get his batting average back up, and reap the benefits of increased power and more plate discipline.

Also, he gets points for consistency, there are plenty of guys who have had better years than him recently, but very few who have had better three year stretches, especially considering this is his first three years in the league.

 

[Illinest]

This was clearly his best year. He is improving.

 

[WVUinVegas]

This is what Russell says to McCutch just before he runs out of the dugout (just replace "Bobby" with "Andrew")

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