Robbie Cano and the Elusive Extra-Base Hit

[PolarVortex]

Three weeks ago I started a thread suggesting his current hitting style is similar to Ichiro when he played here: a glorified singles hitter. Many of you insistged that the extra base hits would come. Three weeks ago he was on pace for 43 extra base hits this year. Well, feel vindicated guys, you were right. He is now on pace for 44 extra base hits this year.

Below is a list that shows how many extra base hits he had, by season, and where he plced in the AL for most extra base hits:

2009_75_tied for 6th
2010_73_tied for 5th
2011_81_2nd
2012_82_2nd
2013_68_tied for 7th
2014_18_tied for 52nd. Yes, 52nd. That's not a typo.

Here's something to think about: through 66 games last year, Kendrys Morales had 26 extra base hits.

 

[dude82]

Speaking of Ichiro... remember all the years when he would get off to a slow start (by his standards) and people would say "Oh, he's on pace for this and on pace for that. This is the season his decline starts"? What would end up happening nearly every time? He'd finish with 200+ hits and a .300+ BA. The problem with looking at a guy's numbers after a specific number of games and trying to predict what they'll finish with is that it discounts hot streaks. Do you really think a hitter like Cano is gonna stay on pace to finish 52nd in the league in extra base hits? He's a proven, established hitter, as was Ichiro, and he deserves the benefit of the doubt until he proves that he doesn't deserve it anymore. Would I like for Cano to have more extra base hits and homeruns at this point? Absolutely. I'm just not concerned about it because I know Cano's track record. Obviously playing at a pitcher's park is going to bring his numbers down, but he's too good a hitter for some of them to stay where they are all year. Why are people so intent on ignoring track record when it comes to consistently good-to-great players? If his numbers are still way down at the end of the season, we can talk about a possible decline, but not in freaking mid-June.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Take a look at the thread I posted a while ago:

http://www.sportshoopla.com/forums/seattle-mariners/151988-will-cano-start-hitting-hrs.html

I'm starting to speculate (due to the fact that Cano is not hitting the ball as far) that there is a possibility that Cano's power ability may be on the decline. I don't doubt that Cano will be a .300+ hitter for years to come, but I'm starting to have concerns about his power.

It will be interesting to see how Cano's season progresses. For what it's worth, he was robbed of a HR during the series against the Yankees, and he was also robbed of one against the Rays. I don't believe it is entirely bad luck, but I think it is safe to say he won't be hitting 30+ this year.

 

[bksballer89]

You guys are in trouble with him unless you surround him with better bats.

How the hell does it take you 2+ months to hit your first HR at home?

 

[seahawksfan234]

For the hell of it, here is a year-by-year comparison of where Cano has been after 66 games.

2014: .333/.387/.436 3 HR 35 RBI 14 2B 1 3B
2013: .282/.354/.521 16 HR 42 RBI 14 2B 0 3B
2012: .301/.368/.543 13 HR 32 RBI 21 2B 1 3B
2011: .290/.335/.517 14 HR 45 RBI 13 2B 2 3B
2010: .372/.416/.616 14 HR 49 RBI 20 2B 1 3B
2009: .311/.340/.511 12 HR 42 RBI 16 2B 1 3B

I think that's cause for concern.

 

[SeattleCoug]

You guys are in trouble with him unless you surround him with better bats.

Your preaching to the choir here. Of course I wish he was hitting with power more but there are 6 other spots in the lineup that I am more worried about before I worry about Cano.

 

[seahawksfan234]

You guys are in trouble with him unless you surround him with better bats.

How the hell does it take you 2+ months to hit your first HR at home?

It's not the lineup that is the problem. The Yankees surrounded Cano with absolute shit in 2013 and he still managed to hit 27 HRs.

In 2013:
Yankees #4 hitter: .228/.305/.382 24 HRs 84 RBI
Yankees #5 hitter: .204/.275/.338 17 HRs 58 RBI

 

[bksballer89]

Weird shit is last year he was damn good as a yankee with not much protection since A-Roid, Tex, and Grandy all missed most of last year. His only protection was Soriano after we traded for him

 

[bksballer89]

It's not the lineup that is the problem. The Yankees surrounded Cano with absolute shit in 2013 and he still managed to hit 27 HRs.

In 2013:
Yankees #4 hitter: .228/.305/.382 24 HRs 84 RBI
Yankees #5 hitter: .204/.275/.338 17 HRs 58 RBI

Me and you basically said the same thing lol. This is the reason why I'm not sure you can actually blame the M's lineup because last year Cano had no protection at all and still was hitting for power and getting a ton of extra base hits

 

[seahawksfan234]

Me and you basically said the same thing lol. This is the reason why I'm not sure you can actually blame the M's lineup because last year Cano had no protection at all and still was hitting for power and getting a ton of extra base hits

I think that his ability to hit for power is beginning to decline. He has had some bad luck, but I don't think he will hit 30 HR ever again.

 

[bksballer89]

Especially not when he now play 81 games in Safeco instead of Yankees stadium

 

[seahawksfan234]

Especially not when he now play 81 games in Safeco instead of Yankees stadium

I'm very happy to have Robinson Cano, but I'd be shocked if he hit 30 again. I don't think 20-25 is out of the question, but 30 is extremely unlikely.

 

[cezero]

Cano hits better when surrounded by a lineup that isn't one of the worst in MLB history. There is no argument against this fact. Anybody who tries to argue against it is a fucking moron with zero understanding of baseball.

Put any marquee hitter in this lineup, and their SLG/OPS+ numbers will go down drastically from what they were when surrounded by competent hitters. It's why most of them won't come here when they can get money anywhere similar to what they can get somewhere else. It's why even Morales won't come here, despite losing money in the short term.

There is no future here for a professional hitter unless they can get a 5+ year contract for mega dollars above and beyond what anybody is stupid enough to offer.

Cano got much more from the M's than any other team would be stupid enough to offer him. 10 year mega contracts to guys in their 30s are a thing of the past, and the M's have the fortune of being one of the last teams to do it. It was a deal he couldn't refuse, and I don't blame him for it a bit.

 

[octagondd]

I have never thought of Cano as a Power hitter. Yes, he had a few peak seasons with 25+, but considering the ballpark he played in, and his age, it made sense. When we got him I figured high average, 100+ RBI, bunches of doubles and maybe 20-25 HR since he is getting older and Safeco. Not sure he can reach 20 this season, but the avg., RBI, and doubles are fine. He is a very consistent hitter, and the only true hitter on the team. He may settle in and hit 25 next year, I don't really care, as long as he keeps getting on base and driving in runs.

 

[R.J. MacReady]

Advantage Cashman?

 

[Logicallylethal]

I have never thought of Cano as a Power hitter. Yes, he had a few peak seasons with 25+, but considering the ballpark he played in, and his age, it made sense. When we got him I figured high average, 100+ RBI, bunches of doubles and maybe 20-25 HR since he is getting older and Safeco. Not sure he can reach 20 this season, but the avg., RBI, and doubles are fine. He is a very consistent hitter, and the only true hitter on the team. He may settle in and hit 25 next year, I don't really care, as long as he keeps getting on base and driving in runs.

Yeah I never viewed Cano as a "power hitter" either, but he's hardly the "slap hitter" that Ichiro was. Cano is more of a line drive hitter with one of the sweetest swings in the game.

I think because of his contract, people automatically assume he has to hit 40 hrs drive in 140 rbis for him to meet expectations. My expectations for him are to win or be in the top 5 for bat avg every year, hit 20-25 hrs, drive in runs, and be that imposing threat in the heart of the order.

So far he has been just that. The power will come I'm not worried.

 

[Shanemansj13]

He is hitting for average at least. You have to take in consideration he was in Yankee Stadium, a high schooler can jack HR's in that park, a little different. It will take time to get adjusted.

 

[PolarVortex]

Yeah I never viewed Cano as a "power hitter" either, but he's hardly the "slap hitter" that Ichiro was. Cano is more of a line drive hitter with one of the sweetest swings in the game.

I think because of his contract, people automatically assume he has to hit 40 hrs drive in 140 rbis for him to meet expectations. My expectations for him are to win or be in the top 5 for bat avg every year, hit 20-25 hrs, drive in runs, and be that imposing threat in the heart of the order.

So far he has been just that. The power will come I'm not worried.

I can't think of one single person anywhere who 'automatically assummed' Robinson Cano was going to hit 40 homeruns and drive in 140 RBI. If you have to exaggerate to make your point then you probably didn't have a useful point to begin with.

 

[Logicallylethal]

I can't think of one single person anywhere who 'automatically assummed' Robinson Cano was going to hit 40 homeruns and drive in 140 RBI. If you have to exaggerate to make your point then you probably didn't have a useful point to begin with.

I think because of his contract, people automatically assume he has to hit 40 hrs drive in 140 rbis for him to meet expectations.

I was referring to his contract. I would say with confidence that most of the posters here did not assume that, because most of the posters here have grounded expectations or no expectations at all. I'm referring to the general public who associate a contract that is 200 + million to someone who typically hits 40 hrs and 140 rbi (like an Albert Pujols)

But Polar let me ask you this. What are your expectations of Cano? It seems like you have been openly critical of him every step of the way and it almost seems like you are actively rooting against him to meet his power numbers just so you can say I told you so to the posters here.

 

[PolarVortex]

He is hitting for average at least. You have to take in consideration he was in Yankee Stadium, a high schooler can jack HR's in that park, a little different. It will take time to get adjusted.

He's played 73 games at Safeco Field and hit 6 homeruns. How many games should we expect him to take to get adjusted?