Rankings Game

[tlance]

Got to revise after some late news:

RBs
1. Spiller- That's right, this is someone besides AP.
2. AP- I would still draft him first though. Safety matters.
3. Martin- Young stud can do it all
4. Foster- Run based offense and he will still get plenty of touches in the red zone
5. McCoy- Offensive line looks good and Vick is back.
6. TRich- Great young player. Hopefully he can stay healthy this year.
7. Forte- Predicting big things in a new offense behind a much improved Oline.
8. Charles- Will the TDs be there?
9. Rice- His drop is more due to ascension of others
10. CJ1K- He bounces back some behind a better line
11. D. Wilson- big bump with the Brown news
12. Morris- Steady producer. Could see more goal line attempts this year.
13. Lynch- Michael is very good. Will take some touches from Lynch as the Hawks keep him fresh.
14. SJax- will get the TDs, but the yards will lag behind the elite.
15. MJD- Could be higher if he plays 16
16. Ridley- Solid but unspectacular RB2
17. Bush- Touches should be there, will the TDs?
18. Miller- Miami workhorse has top 10 upside
19. Gore- Bankable RB2 production.
20. Lacy- Looks like the man in GB. How much will they run it?
21. Bernard- BJGE gets the TDs or he would be higher
22. Ball- Hardest rookie to rank.
23. Sproles-
24. D. Williams- Bell cow in Carolina
25. L. Bell- Hurt now, but will make up for lost time in the 2nd half
26. Murray- Will be hurt at some point
27. Bradshaw- could be a lot higher if he stays healthy
28. Richardson- I have a hard time believing he is a workhorse type.
29. Tate- The Texans run enough to support 2 top 30 guys.
30. Ingram- TDs will carry his value
31. Vereen- Sproles of NE
32. McFadden- Just don't believe in the Raiders or DMC anymore
33. Mathews- See McFadden
34. Vick Ballard- Bradshaw will be hurt at some point and the Colts will run a lot
35. Pierce- He will get a lot more touches as a Rice reliever this year.
36. Moreno- Guessing he gets an opportunity at some point and he is solid enough to preform well.


QBs
1. Brees
2. Rogers
3. Peyton Manning
4. Brady
5. Vick- Crazy I know
6. Matt Ryan
7. Kaepernick
8. Cam Newton
9. Luck
10. Stafford
11. Romo
12. RG3
13. Wilson
14. Cutler
15. E. Manning
16. Dalton
17. Big Ben
18. Weeden
19. Bradford
20. Schaub
21. Palmer
22. Freeman
23. Manuel
24. Flacco

 

[averagejoe]

I'm going with shock and awe... just to be different.

Drew Brees
Peyton Manning
Tom Brady
Colin Kaepernick
Aaron Rodgers
Cam Newton
Matt Ryan
Tony Romo
Robert Griffin III
Eli Manning
Matthew Stafford
Andrew Luck
Russell Wilson
Jay Cutler
Joe Flacco
Carson Palmer
Sam Bradford
Andy Dalton
Josh Freeman
Alex Smith
Michael Vick
Philip Rivers
Matt Schaub
Terrell Pryor


Trent Richardson
Adrian Peterson
Doug Martin
Matt Forte
Arian Foster
Jamaal Charles
Ray Rice
Chris Johnson
Lamar Miller
Steven Jackson
David Wilson
Alfred Morris
Marshawn Lynch
Maurice Jones-Drew
Stevan Ridley
Giovani Bernard
C.J. Spiller
LeSean McCoy
Reggie Bush
Chris Ivory
DeMarco Murray
Montee Ball
Ryan Mathews
Eddie Lacy
DeAngelo Williams
Frank Gore
Darren McFadden
Mark Ingram
Bernard Pierce
Shane Vereen
Ben Tate
Isaiah Pead
Rashard Mendenhall
Bryce Brown
Shonn Greene
Christine Michael

 

[wilwhite]

Better get mine in.


QB
1. Peyton Manning
2. Brees
3. Rodgers
4. Brady
5. Stafford
6. Ryan
7. Wilson
8. Romo
9. Cam
10. Luck
11. Kaepernick
12. RGIII
13. Dalton
14. Eli
15. Cutler
16. Alex Smith
17. Palmer
18. Bradford
19. E.J. Manuel
20. Big Ben
21. Tannehill
22. Freeman
23. Flacco
24. Rivers


RB
1. Charles
2. Foster
3. AP
4. Rice
5. Forte
6. Martin
7. TRich
8. Lynch
9. McCoy
10. Gio Bernard
11. Reggie Bush
12. Morris
13. CJ1K
14. McFadden
15. C.J. Spiller
16. David Wilson
17. SJAX
18. MJD
19. DeMarco Murray
20. Ridley
21. Lamar Miller
22. Lacy
23. Le'Veon Bell
24. Frank Gore
25. Sproles
26. Mendenhall
27. DWill
28. Montee Ball
29. Ivory
30. Mathews
31. Bradshaw
32. Vereen
33. Knowshown Moreno
34. Zac Stacy
35. Tate
36. Powell

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Final RB rankings (have changed from first post

1 Adrian Peterson, Min (5)
2 Arian Foster, Hou (8)
3 Doug Martin, TB (5)
4 Ray Rice, Bal (8)
5 Jamaal Charles, KC (10)
6 Marshawn Lynch, Sea (12)
7 Trent Richardson, Cle (10)
8 C.J. Spiller, Buf (12)
9 LeSean McCoy, Phi (12)
10 Chris Johnson, Ten (8)
11 Steven Jackson, Atl (6)
12 Stevan Ridley, NE (10)
13 Alfred Morris, Was (5)
14 Matt Forte, Chi (8)
15 Frank Gore, SF (9)
16 DeMarco Murray, Dal (11)
17 Darren McFadden, Oak (7)
18 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac (9)
19 David Wilson, NYG (9)
20 Eddie Lacy, GB (4)
21 Reggie Bush, Det (9)
22 Darren Sproles, NO (7)
23 Lamar Miller, Mia (6)
24 Chris Ivory, NYJ (10)
25 Ryan Mathews, SD (8)
26 Montee Ball, Den (9)
27 Giovani Bernard, Cin (12)
28 DeAngelo Williams, Car (4)
29 Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind (8)
30 Andre Brown, NYG (9)
31 Daryl Richardson, StL (11)
32 Mark Ingram, NO (7)
33 Le'Veon Bell, Pit (5)
34 Vick Ballard, Ind (8)
35 Shane Vereen, NE (10)
36 Benjarvus Green-Ellis, Cin (12)

 

[Ram Tough]

Waited til the deadline.... here is my seasonal ranking projections

QB
1. Drew Brees
2. Aaron Rodgers
3. Peyton Manning
4. Cam Newton
5. Matt Ryan
6. Matthew Stafford
7. Tom Brady
8. Robert Griffin III
9. Tony Romo
10. Andrew Luck
11. Russell Wilson
12. Colin Kapernick
13. Eli Manning
14. Sam Bradford
15. Jay Cutler
16. Andy Dalton
17. Michael Vick
18. Josh Freeman
19. Matt Schaub
20. Brandon Weeden
21. Ben Roethlisberger
22. Carson Palmer
23. Alex Smith
24. Jake Locker

RB
1. Adrian Peterson
2. Doug Martin
3. Trent Richardson
4. Jamaal Charles
5. Lesean McCoy
6. C.J Spiller
7. Marshawn Lynch
8. Alfred Morris
9. Arian Foster
10. Matt Forte
11. Ray Rice
12. Stevan Ridley
13. Steven Jackson
14. Demarco Murray
15. David Wilson
16. Chris Johnson
17. Maurice Jones-Drew
18. Eddie Lacy
19. Giovani Bernard
20. Frank Gore
21. Darren Sproles
22. Lamar Miller
23. Montee Ball
24. Darren Mcfadden
25. Reggie Bush- in a non ppr i don't value Bush like others do
26. Shane Vereen
27. Ryan Mathews
28. Daryl Richardson
29. Ahmad Bradshaw
30. Ben Tate
31. Rashard Mendenhall
32. Deangelo Williams
33. Chris Ivory
34. Mark Ingram
35. Pierre Thomas
36. Bernard Pierce

 

[Sam Sportboy]

Just call me "Can't get right" from now on.........posted wrong rankings. This is it! BTW, good thing we decided not to do WR..................I've changed those rankings like 10 times!

1 Drew Brees, NO (7)
2 Aaron Rodgers, GB (4)
3 Peyton Manning, Den (9)
4 Colin Kaepernick, SF (9)
5 Robert Griffin, Was (5)
6 Tom Brady, NE (10)
7 Matt Ryan, Atl (6)
8 Matthew Stafford, Det (9)
9 Tony Romo, Dal (11)
10 Cam Newton, Car (4)
11 Eli Manning, NYG (9)
12 Andrew Luck, Ind (8)
13 Russell Wilson, Sea (12)
14 Ben Roethlisberger, Pit (5)
15 Michael Vick, Phi (12)
16 Andy Dalton, Cin (12)
17 Jay Cutler, Chi (8)
18 Joe Flacco, Bal (8)
19 Philip Rivers, SD (8)
20 Carson Palmer, Ari (9)
21 Sam Bradford, StL (11)
22 Josh Freeman, TB (5)
23 Ryan Tannehill, Mia (6)
24 Matt Schaub, Hou (8)

1 Adrian Peterson, Min (5)
2 Arian Foster, Hou (8)
3 Doug Martin, TB (5)
4 Ray Rice, Bal (8)
5 Jamaal Charles, KC (10)
6 Marshawn Lynch, Sea (12)
7 Trent Richardson, Cle (10)
8 C.J. Spiller, Buf (12)
9 LeSean McCoy, Phi (12)
10 Chris Johnson, Ten (8)
11 Steven Jackson, Atl (6)
12 Stevan Ridley, NE (10)
13 Alfred Morris, Was (5)
14 Matt Forte, Chi (8)
15 Frank Gore, SF (9)
16 DeMarco Murray, Dal (11)
17 Darren McFadden, Oak (7)
18 Maurice Jones-Drew, Jac (9)
19 David Wilson, NYG (9)
20 Eddie Lacy, GB (4)
21 Reggie Bush, Det (9)
22 Giovani Bernard, Cin (12)
23 Lamar Miller, Mia (6)
24 Chris Ivory, NYJ (10)
25 Ryan Mathews, SD (8)
26 Montee Ball, Den (9)
27 Darren Sproles
28 DeAngelo Williams, Car (4)
29 Ahmad Bradshaw, Ind (8)
30 Daryl Richardson, StL (11)
31 Le'Veon Bell, Pit (5)
32 Mark Ingram, NO (7)
33 Shane Vereen, NE (10)
34 Rashard Mendenhall, Ari (9)
35 Ben Tate, Hou (8)
36 Bryce Brown, Phi (12)

 

[wilwhite]

Funny - four of us have McFadden in the 11-14 range, and four of us have him in the 26-32 range.

 

[tlance]

My ranking of McFadden is as much about the Oakland offense as it is about his injury history.

 

[wilwhite]

All set up. For fun, we'll start by comparing everybody to the latest ADP. The easiest way is to pretend that ADP is the actual result.

A perfect score for QB is 294.00, and a perfect score for RB is 432.16. (The "scores" below just show how close everybody is to ADP; everything will change once the season starts.)

And we'll invite a couple of old friends and the new Dronemeister to the party.

QB
ADP - 294.00
ESPN site - 269.48
Jamey E. (CBS) - 238.74
Dave R. (CBS) - 235.16
Treff - 234.79
MilkSpiller - 229.68
Barilko - 216.60
Ram - 215.27
Monkey - 213.96
Fuzzies - 213.20
Bunkamania - 212.02
Tlance - 211.08
TKO - 209.62
dblake - 202.59
Sam - 201.12
ww - 191.05
Joe - 189.52

RB
ADP - 432.16
ESPN site - 329.57
Sam - 311.19
Monkey - 302.15
Bunkamania - 300.78
Barilko - 300.28
dlabke - 294.50
Dave R. - 289.04
Treff - 285.98
Jamey E. - 266.96
Fuzzies - 263.58
Ram - 244.40
MilkSpiller - 242.60
TKO - 224.64
Tlance - 209.93
ww - 154.87
Joe - 109.30

The single biggest surprise is that Joe is the one way off in the woods.

The ESPN site is pretty close to ADP - I figure either they're adjusting in ways that match ADP, or vice-versa. (I got the actual ADP from My Fantasy League for drafts after August 25th.)

 

[averagejoe]

Maybe Foot rubbed off on me a little?

I thought that maybe the only way I have a chance at winning this thing is to think outside the box. I'm outside all right. Maybe I should have just stuck to my normal draft rankings.

 

[wilwhite]

BTW, here are the most extreme calls (as scored vs. ADP):

Gio Bernard at #10, -32.40, courtesy of ww
Miller at #9, -27.88, courtesy of Joe
DMC at #11, -15.02, courtesy of TKO
Vick at #5, -12.00, courtesy of Tlance
DMC at #12, -11.11, courtesy of TREFF
Weeden at 15, -8.00, courtesy of MilkSpiller
Bernard at #16, -7.84, courtesy of Joe
Lynch at #13, -7.68, courtesy of both Tlance and Joe
Spiller at #17, -7.11, courtesy of Joe
TRich at #1, -5.76, courtesy of Joe
Ivory at #19, -5.76, courtesy of Barilko
Forte at #4, -4.84, courtesy of Joe
McCoy at #18, -4.81, courtesy of Joe
DMC at #14, -4.70, courtesy of ww and Monkey
Le'Veon Bell at #23, -4.36, courtesy of ww and dblake
Bradshaw at #19, -4.32, courtesy of TKO
Spiller at #15, -4.30, courtesy of ww
Romo at #5, -4.00, courtesy of dblake

(That's a whole lotta Joe.)

 

[averagejoe]

(That's a whole lotta Joe.)

Well, there is a theory to my madness. I'm not actually looking at past seasons for the exact figures, but about 40-50% of the RB projected in the top 10-12 do not finish that way.

Remember AP wasn't projected to be a top 12 RB last season. Neither was Lynch, Morris, Martin or Spiller. That's 5 right there.

 

[The Foot]

Joe I am liking the picks. I have to add mine, been so busy.

 

[TREFF]

Hmm..kind of shocked that my disdain for MJD didn't show up on that one.

 

[wilwhite]

Barely missed the cut (-3.11). You have him so low that the weight of that pick is pretty small.

Passing on somebody good is not as bad as reaching for somebody terrible.

 

[Ram Tough]

Surprised I didn't make the list with reggie bush... guess others are not high on him like myself

 

[wilwhite]

-1.92, Ram. Reggie's ADP is 16 and you had him at 25, so we're down in the lower weights, and a nine-spot difference isn't such a big deal. Fuzzies has him even lower than you, at 27.

If you're right, though, I'll take a big hit since I have at #11.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

If you put a player on your list and at the end of the season he was not on the list how is he ranked?? do we take his real rankings or just consider him the next player... for example we listed 24 QBs I put terelle prior on the list, if he is actually the 35th ranked QB and i put him at 24, does he get measured from the 35th slot or the 25th slot??

 

[wilwhite]

Milk - he'd be measured from the 35th (the idea is to approximate how good/bad these rankings are for fantasy purposes). But we cap the damage at 24 spots off, so if Pryor goes out and throws two INTs right off the bat and then is benched forever and ends up 85th, it doesn't count as 61 spots off.

 

[wilwhite]

And a recap of last year's results (QB only) - I had a nice lead on everybody, but Ram leaped up to grab it from me in the final week. Sam actually looked great until the final few weeks.

Ram: 56.68
Jamey E. (CBS): 54.66
ww: 50.50
Dave R. (CBS): 48.25
ADP: 36.56
Monkey: 36.07
Sam: 30.60
Joe: -23.39
Foot: -95.35

Those were July rankings, though. We should all do better this year.