Question for one of you cap experts

[msgkings322]

Something I've been thinking about with the Warriors...

All the chatter about KD leaving, and there's obviously a very good chance he does. Let's say he indeed does decline his option and go.

Let's also assume the Ws max Klay to keep him, or close to it. They spend a lot on him and he stays. We also know Boogie won't stay.

So now they have Curry, Klay, and Dray on the last year of his deal. I don't feel like looking up all the other players under contract for next year.

My question is, can't they just bring in another star with the money they were gonna spend on KD? Maybe they won't be as good, but couldn't they go after Tobias Harris or Jimmy Butler or some other high level wing?

 

[DJ Fieri]

Something I've been thinking about with the Warriors...

All the chatter about KD leaving, and there's obviously a very good chance he does. Let's say he indeed does decline his option and go.

Let's also assume the Ws max Klay to keep him, or close to it. They spend a lot on him and he stays. We also know Boogie won't stay.

So now they have Curry, Klay, and Dray on the last year of his deal. I don't feel like looking up all the other players under contract for next year.

My question is, can't they just bring in another star with the money they were gonna spend on KD? Maybe they won't be as good, but couldn't they go after Tobias Harris or Jimmy Butler or some other high level wing?

Golden State Warriors Team Payroll | Basketball-Reference.com

KD walks and they have 91 million committed to their players.....think the cap is 106-108 million.

 

[DJ Fieri]

Harris or Butler are going to want more than the W's can offer.....unless they take a discount and I doubt both players would do that.

 

[trojanfan12]

I'm no cap expert, but I will be at least a little surprised if the Warriors don't bite the bullet, sign KD to another 1 year deal and just pay the tax for that year.

They're opening the new arena, so I'd expect they'd do it so they can close this arena with a title and have a chance at opening the new one with a title.

 

[bksballer89]

@WiggyRuss

 

[flyerhawk]

Something I've been thinking about with the Warriors...

All the chatter about KD leaving, and there's obviously a very good chance he does. Let's say he indeed does decline his option and go.

Let's also assume the Ws max Klay to keep him, or close to it. They spend a lot on him and he stays. We also know Boogie won't stay.

So now they have Curry, Klay, and Dray on the last year of his deal. I don't feel like looking up all the other players under contract for next year.

My question is, can't they just bring in another star with the money they were gonna spend on KD? Maybe they won't be as good, but couldn't they go after Tobias Harris or Jimmy Butler or some other high level wing?

If they max Klay they will have 106 million in salaries tied to Steph, Klay, Iggy, and Dray. Include Jones and Evans' contracts and the Warriors are at the cap before they sign a single player, assuming they renounce all of their cap holds and release Livingston.

They would need 25-30 million in free cap space to sign Butler or Harris.

 

[msgkings322]

I'm no cap expert, but I will be at least a little surprised if the Warriors don't bite the bullet, sign KD to another 1 year deal and just pay the tax for that year.

They're opening the new arena, so I'd expect they'd do it so they can close this arena with a title and have a chance at opening the new one with a title.

Obviously that's their first choice but what if KD simply wants to leave? Can they go into the tax to pay another guy?

 

[msgkings322]

C

If they max Klay they will have 106 million in salaries tied to Steph, Klay, Iggy, and Dray. Include Jones and Evans' contracts and the Warriors are at the cap before they sign a single player, assuming they renounce all of their cap holds and release Livingston.

They would need 25-30 million in free cap space to sign Butler or Harris.

Can they spend that and pay the tax? Or can they only go over to pay a guy already there like KD?

 

[WiggyRuss]

Something I've been thinking about with the Warriors...

All the chatter about KD leaving, and there's obviously a very good chance he does. Let's say he indeed does decline his option and go.

Let's also assume the Ws max Klay to keep him, or close to it. They spend a lot on him and he stays. We also know Boogie won't stay.

So now they have Curry, Klay, and Dray on the last year of his deal. I don't feel like looking up all the other players under contract for next year.

My question is, can't they just bring in another star with the money they were gonna spend on KD? Maybe they won't be as good, but couldn't they go after Tobias Harris or Jimmy Butler or some other high level wing?

almost assuredly no- becuase you would be using Durant's Bird Rights to resign him- esp. since you have the Livingston and Iggy contracts.

so you saying that Cousins and Durant leave?

lets look at the cap picture

the cap is 109M this summer

Curry: 40 (that super-max is a big hit)
Dray: 18.5
Iggy: 17M
Livginston: 7.5
Klay: what will his cap hold be? like 28?
Damian Jones: 2M
Evans: 2M

that already takes you to 115


you would be able to sign Durant to exceed the cap because you have his Bird Rights. You obviously would not have the Bird Rights to exceed the cap to say- sign Tobias Harris

 

[WiggyRuss]

C

Can they spend that and pay the tax? Or can they only go over to pay a guy already there like KD?

they can only go over to pay a guy already there like KD since tehy have his Bird Rights.

 

[WiggyRuss]

the lux tax line is 132 million

so- say they resign Klay- his contracts starts at about 32M

they have cap holds for at least 12 roster spots

and they sign Durant to say a 38M dollar deal.

they are in the repeater tax so, once their tax bill gets high enough, they are paying 5-1 for every dollar they spend.

so- if they are in the final bracket- say signing a 5 million dollar play to the mid level exception, would really cost 25M

 

[flyerhawk]

C

Can they spend that and pay the tax? Or can they only go over to pay a guy already there like KD?

Yeah. You can only go over the cap for guys you have on the roster already. Even if the Warriors lose KD, they will still be over the cap. So signing FAs other than at league minimum or using your MLE is not an option

 

[msgkings322]

they can only go over to pay a guy already there like KD since tehy have his Bird Rights.

Ok thanks. So it's really KD or no one for them. They obviously could get a ring chaser again cheap like Boogie but that was a pretty unusual situation

 

[trojanfan12]

Obviously that's their first choice but what if KD simply wants to leave? Can they go into the tax to pay another guy?

I refer you to the "I'm no cap expert" portion of my post. lol

 

[WiggyRuss]

lets try and get an idea of what a lux. tax bill might be

Curry: 40
Durant: 38
Klay: 32
Dray: 18.5
Iggy: 17
Livingston: 7.5
Jones: 2
Evans: 2
-do they have their first rounder? that will be about 2M

so, with only 9 players- they would be at 159M....lets just say that they end up at 165 total- which is pretty fair.

The tax line, as i said, was 132. They are in teh repeater- so the marginal rates per 5M are 250%, 275%, 350%, 425%, 475%, and so on.

from 132-137: penalty is 12.5
from 138-143: penalty is is 13.75
from 144-149: penatly is 17.5
from 150-155: penalty is 21.25
from 156:161: penatly is 23.75
from 162-165: penalty is 21M (since its only against 4M and not 5M)

so the total penalty- to carry a 165M dollar payroll into the repeater is about 110M

ROUGHLY- idid that pretty quick.

 

[WiggyRuss]

I messed that up slightly.....

133-137: 250% = 12.5
138-142: 275% = 13.75
143-147: 350% = 17.5
148-152: 425% = 21.25
153-157: 475% = 23.75
158-162: 525% = 26.25
163-165: 575% = 17.25

total = $132.25M in tax.


the following years - Draymond contract will likely shoot up from about 18M to about 30M (a max is 33M so lets say he DOESNT get the max), Currys contract and Klays and Durants contracts will each gain a couple million each as well.

However, at that point Iggy and Livginston are off the books- but they could not be replaced unless the Warriors traded their expirings for other deals.

the savings from losing Iggy and Livingston are basically equaled out from Draymonds contract and the increases in klays, durants and currys contract

but that would only leave exceptions and vet mins to fill out the roster if they just let livingston and iggy expire.

 

[WiggyRuss]

so....if the Warriors wanted to keep the Big 4 together for next year and the following year--- they would lose iggy and livingston- be able to use their mini mid level exception, and vet min contracts and pay over a 1/4 billion in tax for 2 years of just tax

the total expenditure for rosters for the 2 year would be probably be a a little less than 600M if they did NOT use their MLE and only used vet mins around those guys--- if they used the MLE it would probably go up to about 635M or so.

So thats the question

in order to keep the Big 4 together is it affordable for the Warriors to spend somewhere between 600M (for the Big 4 and a totally vet. min roster) - or use their exceptions and prob. and maybe trade Livingstons expiring (or got crazy and Iggys expiring was dealt for a guy with a continuing contract) for a useufl guy, and use the mini MLE, prob get up to a little less than 700M.


bare bones conservative estimate: 600M
high end estimate balls to the wall: 725M

for 2 seasons

 

[tlance]

so....if the Warriors wanted to keep the Big 4 together for next year and the following year--- they would lose iggy and livingston- be able to use their mini mid level exception, and vet min contracts and pay over a 1/4 billion in tax for 2 years of just tax

the total expenditure for rosters for the 2 year would be probably be a a little less than 600M if they did NOT use their MLE and only used vet mins around those guys--- if they used the MLE it would probably go up to about 635M or so.

So thats the question

in order to keep the Big 4 together is it affordable for the Warriors to spend somewhere between 600M (for the Big 4 and a totally vet. min roster) - or use their exceptions and prob. and maybe trade Livingstons expiring (or got crazy and Iggys expiring was dealt for a guy with a continuing contract) for a useufl guy, and use the mini MLE, prob get up to a little less than 700M.


bare bones conservative estimate: 600M
high end estimate balls to the wall: 725M

for 2 seasons

I know you have been saying this is impossible for years now.

But, Lacob has publically stated nobody will outspend him. THey are opening a new arena and the team is a cash cow.

The run will end someday. But this is literally a once in lifetime dream come true for an owner. I do not think he will let it crumble over a huge tax bill for a couple years. Once they stop winning is another story.

Now KD might leave on his own, but I will be shocked if he and Klay don't both get max offers.

 

[flyerhawk]

I know you have been saying this is impossible for years now.

But, Lacob has publically stated nobody will outspend him. THey are opening a new arena and the team is a cash cow.

The run will end someday. But this is literally a once in lifetime dream come true for an owner. I do not think he will let it crumble over a huge tax bill for a couple years. Once they stop winning is another story.

Now KD might leave on his own, but I will be shocked if he and Klay don't both get max offers.

KD isn't leaving because the Warriors won't pay him. Assuming he leaves.

 

[CitySushi]

I know you have been saying this is impossible for years now.

But, Lacob has publically stated nobody will outspend him. THey are opening a new arena and the team is a cash cow.

The run will end someday. But this is literally a once in lifetime dream come true for an owner. I do not think he will let it crumble over a huge tax bill for a couple years. Once they stop winning is another story.

Now KD might leave on his own, but I will be shocked if he and Klay don't both get max offers.

Did you see my post earlier which says the warriors have already 2 billion in committed incoming money from the new arena?

They have the means if they want.