QB Value

[Sportster 72]

How about talking about him as he currently is and not what we hope he might become!

Sty that is fine, but there is nothing wrong with projecting. Currently he is the 15th rated QB in the league. That includes his start (first 6 games) where his TOs percentage was much higher. He has increased his rating by being one of the top 10 rated QBs in the league in the last 7 games.

First lets the present. I am happy right now to have a QB that has improved that much over the year. His first year as a starting QB. People such as you Sty proclaimed him to be a career backup during those initial 6 games. This team is in the playoff hunt in week 14. No one would have been on that ... take that back. dean probably would have.

Now lets do what I have suggested, if (IF) he can continue to progress could he be a top 8 - 12 QB? Lets take 3 QBs in the league, Tyrod Taylor (5th year QB, 1st year starter), Cam Newton (5th year starter) and Daulton (5th year starter.) All three of these guys have been left on the side of the road as roadkill at some point in their careers. All three are having very good years. Is it possible they have progressed? Is it possible those of us who suggest he might progress to be a better QB?

Breed is not entirely wrong either. I know he brought up YPA earlier in the year and I have been busting his chops since. I don't remember whether he factored missing Jackson for 6 games and JReed for two games (both bad games for Cousins and the Redskins) into that but since Jackson's return the offense has opened up because he causes defenses to play differently. We also had the "his completion percentage is high because he only throws short passes." More recently as his completion percentage and YPA have gone up we here he is missing too many receivers. Breed is not entirely wrong about taking more shots downfield. Could that be part of progressing as he gains experience? Lets not pretend that every QB in the league doesn't miss a downfield receiver at times and who has ever seen a receiver jumping around with his hand up yelling "I am open."

I said in the beginning of the year that we need to be patient and let the kid have a chance. I stand by that. Certainly there are things that Cousins has to get better at. I am just not expecting he will be better at all of those things tomorrow. It would be nice if he had an off season and training camp as the starter instead of getting the call after three preseason games.

 

[ehb5]

Some of you are going to be very surprised at the numbers when they do sign Kirk. Starting QBs get paid. Big. And contracts are always going up, not down. It's going to be 4-5 years at $17-$20 Mil/year with some outs for the team.

Im gonna vomit if we cant get out of that easily lol.

 

[ehb5]

There's the thing. We do not know if Cousins is the long term answer but he has done nothing to suggest we shouldn't give him more time to continue to improve and show he is.

The idea that you can get any average QB to replace comes from the same people that said in the beginning of the year that he couldn't win games and he was no more than a backup. Then his YPA wasn't high enough or he was throwing 3 yard passes with 35 yards of YAC. (Imagine that in a west coast offense) Now he is not accurate enough and is missing too many receivers although his completion percentage is the highest in the league.

For those who suggest we are praising him too much I say ... quit changing the parameters. He has shown a willingness to work hard and a strong desire to improve. That impresses me. Those us that are cheering him and instead of finding reasons to jeer him aren't sure he is the guy but we are willing to see if he can be a top 10 QB. He is already mid pack and not finished his first year as starter with a rebuilding team that has no run game.

I havent changed the parameters once though. Interceptions were a problem. Y/ATT were a problem. Accuracy was a problem. None of that is debatable. Its only changing the parameters if you think any of those 3 things dont matter which would be yanno kinda dumb.

And Im willing to see what he can do too. People need to stop painting this as Kirk having haters who want him gone. Thats not accurate.

 

[ehb5]

Sportster, your post makes too much sense. Most of those that still aren't sold (to put it nicely) have ulterior wishes. While they won't come out and say it, the majority of them want to see him fail so that the chosen one won't look so inept. I find it funny that those nit picking on KCs flaws come up with all kind of excuses for the chosen one. I just wish they would man up and state what they really want to happen as opposed to hiding behind the nit picking of KC.

Yea you really hit the nail on the head with that one. Ive never said we should keep Cousins or RG3. Ive never said that Cousins should have been is and should continue to be the QB all season. Ive never said we should try to resign him. Nooooo. I just love RG3. Give him a 100 mil next year cuz hes the best. *end sarcasm*

 

[ehb5]

Im gonna vomit if we cant get out of that easily lol.

And to clarify this before I get jumped on for my Kirk hate, I just want a contract that doesnt lock us into paying him a lot for a long time. Thats how you get Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill situations. Which should be a reminder for all the people who think that the market determines value and thats that.

 

[Stymietee]

OK, let's do that......while I totally agree with you that there is nothing wrong with projecting, there's a time and place for that sort of thing, just not on a thread specifically focused on determining contractual value as he currently presents. There is one thing that I can absolutely guarantee, Washington won't be paying him for unquantifiable projection(s) regarding what he might be. Nor will they be paying KIRK because of anyone in the organization (or elsewhere) supposed infatuation of Griffin above the team. (sorry I had to get that one in)

Now, we could toss stats around all day, some helpful some not so much when the topic is "QB value" but how does one determine the value of those things about the player alone that stats don't necessarily tell us? Such as:

Quality of play (Dad and I call them impact players or difference makers)

This team is stocked with good, in some cases very good players, if any one of us were asked to list players (outside of Galette) that other teams must beyond normal, game plan for, the list would look something like this.
1. DJax
2. Reed
3. *possibly J. Crowder

Notice a particular name missing? Maybe I'm not prepared to lower my expectations with regards to QB that so many of this era seem so willing to do. Call it old man syndrome if you must, but to me all Kirk has proven by his play or Jay's insistence is that he is a serviceable stop gap, and a damned good backup in this system..... still. Right now, imo, there is not one DC in the league worried about KC's ability to burn them if they aren't playing exact, disiplined defense, no one worries about his ability to run or improvise on the move. By his own admission he doesn's change a play at the LOS and after 13 straight games still needs work on fundamental things such as seeing the field better, accuracy and pocket presence.

Again, call it old school or what you will, but my bottom line is, the difference between a starter in the NFL and a backup is CONSISTENCY.

 

[j_y19]

How about talking about him as he currently is and not what we hope he might become!

If we only would have done that with RG3!

 

[j_y19]

Yea you really hit the nail on the head with that one. Ive never said we should keep Cousins or RG3. Ive never said that Cousins should have been is and should continue to be the QB all season. Ive never said we should try to resign him. Nooooo. I just love RG3. Give him a 100 mil next year cuz hes the best. *end sarcasm*

Interesting you took this as if it were directed to you. I never named anyone. I was actually curious who would bite.

 

[Sharkinva]

And to clarify this before I get jumped on for my Kirk hate, I just want a contract that doesnt lock us into paying him a lot for a long time. Thats how you get Matt Stafford and Ryan Tannehill situations. Which should be a reminder for all the people who think that the market determines value and thats that.

Not for nothing, but if the Dolphins cut Tannehill, it would be a $7 million cap hit. If they designated him a june 1st cut, it would spread to $3.5 million next year and 3.5 in 2017.

Now to put that into perspective, IF his performance totally tanks, its still a manageable situation. As i have said for a while now, the WHAT will he cost argument is the last ditch effort of those who simply want us to go in some direction other than Cousins. Because lets face it, he isnt going to get a 5 year $125 million dollar deal. And the odds of us getting better than a stop gap. or holding onto the other QB under contract for less than $16 million a year are slim and none.

 

[ehb5]

Interesting you took this as if it were directed to you. I never named anyone. I was actually curious who would bite.

And I'm not at all surprised you responded this way. Maybe you should've sacked up and named names. I'm not gonna feel bad because I took your vague accusation to be about me considering ya know there's like 2 people you could've possibly meant and I've been accused of just being an rg3 fanatic before. So yes sure act like I bit, rather than owning up to the fact that you just talk out your ass.

 

[ehb5]

Not for nothing, but if the Dolphins cut Tannehill, it would be a $7 million cap hit. If they designated him a june 1st cut, it would spread to $3.5 million next year and 3.5 in 2017.

Now to put that into perspective, IF his performance totally tanks, its still a manageable situation. As i have said for a while now, the WHAT will he cost argument is the last ditch effort of those who simply want us to go in some direction other than Cousins. Because lets face it, he isnt going to get a 5 year $125 million dollar deal. And the odds of us getting better than a stop gap. or holding onto the other QB under contract for less than $16 million a year are slim and none.

To say we're arguing over price because we want him gone us ridiculous. I wouldn't want to overpay any player on this roster. Why would I just be ok with that?

As for tannehill that's still not great especially considering the fact that the Dolphins FO apparently thinks he's legit. That's a big part of it. I'm worried we're gonna extend him he's gonna be our guy and the FO will be scared to admit they were wrong if they were wrong. Tannehill doesn't need to tank. Tannehill already isnt worth what he's making yet hell probably spend 10 years in Miami wasting any shot they might get at a super bowl.

 

[Sharkinva]

To say we're arguing over price because we want him gone us ridiculous. I wouldn't want to overpay any player on this roster. Why would I just be ok with that?

As for tannehill that's still not great especially considering the fact that the Dolphins FO apparently thinks he's legit. That's a big part of it. I'm worried we're gonna extend him he's gonna be our guy and the FO will be scared to admit they were wrong if they were wrong. Tannehill doesn't need to tank. Tannehill already isnt worth what he's making yet hell probably spend 10 years in Miami wasting any shot they might get at a super bowl.

First of all, how do you determine if a guy is over paid?? If its based on the market at the time, and he is paid alot more than the current market, then yes you could say he was over paid. If a guy is being paid like a starter, and he is a 2nd or third stringer, then yes he is being over paid.

But I just pointed out to you, the Dolphins could cut Tannehill and move forward. So no dude they are NOT stuck with him. If he isnt performing and the FO sticks with him, thats a GM mistake. But they are not going to keep him based on what his contract was or currently is. The days of keeping a guy because you simply cant afford to cut him are dead and gone. The Dolphins ARE in a better position because they are NOT still chasing the great white whale of the franchise QB.

Bottom line is you are arguing over price before they have even SET a price. So yea, its the last fall back when you simply dont want to say.. .Fuck it I want us to go in any direction other than keeping Cousins. When you can no longer say, he is the reason we are losing games. When you can no longer say.. well he isnt improving. You break out the old tried and true... well we MIGHT over pay him, so we shouldnt keep him.

 

[j_y19]

And I'm not at all surprised you responded this way. Maybe you should've sacked up and named names. I'm not gonna feel bad because I took your vague accusation to be about me considering ya know there's like 2 people you could've possibly meant and I've been accused of just being an rg3 fanatic before. So yes sure act like I bit, rather than owning up to the fact that you just talk out your ass.

Not by me you haven't. Do I think you have a burr up your ass for KC and do I think you view him through unrealistic lenses? Yes, I do. But you have also been upfront in saying that you also believe that he is better that RG3 for this team right now. Have I misunderstood you? While I disagree with you, I have always found you to be upfront in your opinions. My only beef with your stance is when asked what your replacement strategy is to keep this team moving forward if we let KC walk, you don't have one. That is a bailout IMO.

 

[ehb5]

Not by me you haven't. Do I think you have a burr up your ass for KC and do I think you view him through unrealistic lenses? Yes, I do. But you have also been upfront in saying that you also believe that he is better that RG3 for this team right now. Have I misunderstood you? While I disagree with you, I have always found you to be upfront in your opinions. My only beef with your stance is when asked what your replacement strategy is to keep this team moving forward if we let KC walk, you don't have one. That is a bailout IMO.

Fair enough. But i will say I dont get why just because I see Cousins differently than you I have to have a burr up my ass. Fact is, we dont agree. Thats well known. But I think people on here read into things way too much. Really its as simple as a different opinion on a player and team building process. Its not crazy or tied into some hidden hatred or motive.

As for the replacement strategy, I have given an answer to that. I made a whole thread on it a couple weeks ago. While you may not agree with what I think, I have offered my alternatives. And I have offered those all while saying we should try to resign Kirk first and foremost.

 

[ehb5]

First of all, how do you determine if a guy is over paid?? If its based on the market at the time, and he is paid alot more than the current market, then yes you could say he was over paid. If a guy is being paid like a starter, and he is a 2nd or third stringer, then yes he is being over paid.

But I just pointed out to you, the Dolphins could cut Tannehill and move forward. So no dude they are NOT stuck with him. If he isnt performing and the FO sticks with him, thats a GM mistake. But they are not going to keep him based on what his contract was or currently is. The days of keeping a guy because you simply cant afford to cut him are dead and gone. The Dolphins ARE in a better position because they are NOT still chasing the great white whale of the franchise QB.

Bottom line is you are arguing over price before they have even SET a price. So yea, its the last fall back when you simply dont want to say.. .Fuck it I want us to go in any direction other than keeping Cousins. When you can no longer say, he is the reason we are losing games. When you can no longer say.. well he isnt improving. You break out the old tried and true... well we MIGHT over pay him, so we shouldnt keep him.

I will say if those numbers you mentioned are correct than getting out of that contract isnt as bad as I thought. But FOs also have a tendency to double down when they missed rather than move on. The Doolphins are NOT in a better position because they have Tannehill. Instead their stuck awkwardly paying their at best middling quarterback 20 million a year. That is not good. Thats money they could spend elsewhere. And thats actually one of the big problems with the Dolphins roster.

Secondly, are you saying we cant determine value after a contract is signed so screw it just pay him? Its not that hard to tell if somebody is overpaid dude. Value =/= price. What we are getting from a player does not always match up with what we are paying him. And its not that hard to tell when the two don't line up.
And if you think you might end up not getting an fair return on your investment, then yanno dont do it.

 

[Sharkinva]

Reality check... you can NOT determine before hand if a guy is being over paid if his deal falls within the established market for his position.

If the going rate for a starting QB is in the $15-20 Million a year range, and the guy you sign as your starter gets paid in that range, you cant say before he has played a snap on his new deal... he was automatically over paid.

Also... Tannehills cap number this year is $4.5 million. Next year its $11 million. So um... might want to check the whole his contract is ONE of the BIG problems with the Dolphins. Signing Suh to a $100 million plus.. yes. Tannehill at $11 million next year, and if he fails they cut him in 2017 and recoup $13 million in cap space.... not so much.

Ryan Tannehill Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap

 

[ehb5]

Reality check... you can NOT determine before hand if a guy is being over paid if his deal falls within the established market for his position.

If the going rate for a starting QB is in the $15-20 Million a year range, and the guy you sign as your starter gets paid in that range, you cant say before he has played a snap on his new deal... he was automatically over paid.

Also... Tannehills cap number this year is $4.5 million. Next year its $11 million. So um... might want to check the whole his contract is ONE of the BIG problems with the Dolphins. Signing Suh to a $100 million plus.. yes. Tannehill at $11 million next year, and if he fails they cut him in 2017 and recoup $13 million in cap space.... not so much.

Ryan Tannehill Contract Details, Salary Cap Charges, Bonus Money | Over The Cap

And I never said you could. But that doesnt mean you dont try. Literally thats the entire idea of a team offering a guy a contract is them saying hmmm we think he will or will not be worth this much. You dont just say screw it theres no way to know.

And Miami has been saying Tannehill can be their guy. Meaning hes getting that 11 mil. And then the 20 mil after that most likely. Which I think is bad for them. If they can get out of it easily good for them - after all thats what im saying i want with Cousins.

 

[Sharkinva]

And I never said you could. But that doesnt mean you dont try. Literally thats the entire idea of a team offering a guy a contract is them saying hmmm we think he will or will not be worth this much. You dont just say screw it theres no way to know.

And Miami has been saying Tannehill can be their guy. Meaning hes getting that 11 mil. And then the 20 mil after that most likely. Which I think is bad for them. If they can get out of it easily good for them - after all thats what im saying i want with Cousins.

And what I have been saying all along is that since the new CBA was put into place, there isnt a QB contract out there that a team can not get out of if the guy doesnt perform. Romo's deal was the last posion pill deal done for a QB. And it was done before the new CBA.

Point two... ALL the alternatives you have given at BEST have this team treading water for another year or two, and at worst put us right back where we were three years ago.

 

[ehb5]

And what I have been saying all along is that since the new CBA was put into place, there isnt a QB contract out there that a team can not get out of if the guy doesnt perform. Romo's deal was the last posion pill deal done for a QB. And it was done before the new CBA.

Point two... ALL the alternatives you have given at BEST have this team treading water for another year or two, and at worst put us right back where we were three years ago.

And if we arent committing tons of money to the guy then Ill tolerate it. I may not love it but I would most likely tolerate it. Ive said that.

And thats one way of looking at it. The other is that it leads us too finding a better QB. Or it leads us to upgrading our roster in other places. Theres what ifs in every direction. I could say best case Cousins ends up a decent QB getting paid more than a decent QB should and worst case he regresses and sets us back. But thats not really fair to say either.

 

[Sportster 72]

Interesting you took this as if it were directed to you. I never named anyone. I was actually curious who would bite.

Yeah good point. But we knew who the three guys who have been on his ass all year were anyhow. I would respect their opinions if they weren't always negative but that's just not the case. You had to love Sty's comment "okay lets look at projection but I guarantee that is not how management will decide how much he should be paid." HUH??? Serious. Y'all have fun, I have tired of this.