Prospects for NFC v. AFC in the SB?

[TDs3nOut]

Kind of interesting to me that the two conference championships both feature teams that are more similar to their opponents this week than the winners will be to who they face in the SB. In particular, the NFC teams both feature great defenses, solid running games, and young, nontraditional QBs who are more proven making plays with their feet than with their arms. On the other hand, the AFC teams are both led by QBs who are classic pocket passers and at the top of GOAT QB lists, but who are also backed by less than stellar defenses.

Given that there are two competing axioms about what it takes to win a SB -- defense wins championships versus its a QB league -- it's hard to imagine a starker contrast in teams than we will see in a few weeks. Accordingly, I thought it might be interesting for people to post their thoughts about which style, the NFC or the AFC, is more likely to prevail at the end of the season.

 

[Wedgie]

I have no clue, but whatever happens, should be a hell of a Super Bowl.

 

[Clayton]

I think if all 4 teams were at full strength on a neutral field, both AFC teams would be favored over the NFC teams but with the way injuries have happened, the NFC teams will likely be favored over the AFC teams unless the NFC team suffers a couple of injuries.

 

[Podunkparte]

I think if all 4 teams were at full strength on a neutral field, both AFC teams would be favored over the NFC teams but with the way injuries have happened, the NFC teams will likely be favored over the AFC teams unless the NFC team suffers a couple of injuries.

Even at full strength, and disregarding the performances this season since we're going hypothetical, I would think the rankings would have to be:

1. Denver - HOF QB with capable receivers and a solid defense with a couple serious playmakers
2A. Seattle - Young dynamic QB with an elite RB and the best D in the league
2B. San Francisco - Young dynamic QB with an elite TE, solid receivers and a great RB plus a very good D
4. New England - Proven HOF QB with an elite TE, one above average receiver, and an above average D

Just based on roster strength and balance.

 

[CaptainStubing]

I believe either nfc team will be favored over either afc team.

On paper, I'm not sure either afc front 7 can handle either nfc running game.

For the pats run oriented offense, they would not have much luck against the niners front 7. For the broncos passing game, they might struggle against the hawks secondary.

I would say the best match ups for entertainment/competitive purposes would be:
Pats v hawks or broncos v 49ers

 

[TDs3nOut]

I believe either nfc team will be favored over either afc team.

On paper, I'm not sure either afc front 7 can handle either nfc running game.

For the pats run oriented offense, they would not have much luck against the niners front 7. For the broncos passing game, they might struggle against the hawks secondary.

I would say the best match ups for entertainment/competitive purposes would be:
Pats v hawks or broncos v 49ers

Possibly, but the Broncos offense is not as one dimensional as some might think. Despite setting all-time records for both yardage and TDs in the passing game, Denver was also the 15th ranked rushing offense. The running game has been particularly complementary to the passing attack the past three games.

 

[sonnyblack65]

Possibly, but the Broncos offense is not as one dimensional as some might think. Despite setting all-time records for both yardage and TDs in the passing game, Denver was also the 15th ranked rushing offense. The running game has been particularly complementary to the passing attack the past three games.

As a Pats fan I know that first hand as Moreno scorched us for 224 yards this year, he was the offense

 

[TDs3nOut]

As a Pats fan I know that first hand as Moreno scorched us for 224 yards this year, he was the offense

Yeah, that was a career game for Moreno. I seriously doubt that he gets anywhere near the 37 caries he got that night, when the Pats were inviting Denver to run and the wind made passing more difficult than it will hopefully be this Sunday. I do expect that running the ball will be important for both teams, though.

 

[SonnyCID]

I wish i could find it now, but yesterday i saw the future lines for the sb. They had the nfc teams favored in all the matchups except one, i believe it was sf-ne as a pickem.

 

[NEhomer]

Lines are based upon betting so this weekend could sway things quite a bit.

Denver blows out NE (as if!) while Seattle barely squeaks by San Fran and you'll have one line. Switch those scenarios and you'll get a different line.

I think Kaep is the real deal and I'm most leary of the 49ers. I think Bill would have a good plan for Wilson and his O.

 

[gowazzu02]

I think if all 4 teams were at full strength on a neutral field, both AFC teams would be favored over the NFC teams but with the way injuries have happened, the NFC teams will likely be favored over the AFC teams unless the NFC team suffers a couple of injuries.

Really thats interesting. Are you taking into account Seattles one weakness the passing game, would get Sydney Rice and Percy Harvin healthy in this scenario?

 

[tshirt]

On paper, I'm not sure either afc front 7 can handle either nfc running game.

keep in mind:

Broncos, 49ers, and Hawks have the #7 run D ypc allowed (3.9), while Pats have the #24 run D ypc allowed

The Pats and 49ers have the #9 rushing offense by ypc (4.4) followed by #12 Seattle (4.3) and #17 Denver (4.1)

For the pats run oriented offense, they would not have much luck against the niners front 7.

if the Pats had a QB like Wilson or Kap, it would be interesting to see how the Pats #9 rushing offense did against the #7 run D of the 49ers and Hawks. But the Pats have a balanced offense that is tough to defend, which is why the Pats have the #3 scoring offense (1 pt on the whole season shy of #2). Brady is #6 in the NFL in passing yards and a two-time Super Bowl MVP. Pats don't have a run-oriented offense like the Hawks or 49ers (the #26 and #30 passing offenses by ypg)

For the broncos passing game, they might struggle against the hawks secondary.

Manning might also struggle vs the 49ers secondary (49ers have the #4 pass efficiency D). The Pats, with their more balanced offense could be tougher for either the 49ers or Hawks to stop

I would say the best match ups for entertainment/competitive purposes would be:
Pats v hawks or broncos v 49ers

for competitive purposes, the Pats D (#24 run D ypc allowed) seems to be at a big disadvantage vs the run-oriented NFC teams in comparison to the Broncos (#7 run D ypc allowed). But the Broncos weak pass D (below the NFL avg in both pass efficiency D and passing ypc allowed) could allow the Hawks and 49ers to open up their run game via the pass (while the Hawks and 49ers don't pass much, when they do they are efficient - Hawks have #5 pass efficiency offense, 49ers #9). The Pats, on the other hand, with their #9 pass efficiency D (and #4 pass D by opponent completion pct allowed) could have an easier time selling out to stop the running game of the NFC teams. Plus, the Pats would have BB, the greatest mind in football (probably ever) going against a young QB in Kap or Wilson. And the Pats have the #10 scoring D while Denver has the #22 scoring D. And New England should be most at home in the Super Bowl weather in New Jersey

as for entertainment purposes, while Fox v Carroll might not have the same oomph as BB v Harbaugh, I think everybody would enjoy watching Manning with his record-setting season go for Ring #2 against the best secondary in the NFL, a secondary that features two leading DPOY candidates.

and watching Brady going for Ring #4 (tying Montana and Bradshaw) if he wins, and going for 0-3 in his last Super Bowls if he loses, should be entertaining as well

Between the Hawks and 49ers, they are both so similar. Hawks have that secondary that is in a league of its own, and are by far #1 in forced turnovers (including INTs). 49ers have Bolden/Davis/Crabtree/Gore. If the 49ers can go into Seattle and get a W, we can all agree they deserve to be in the Super Bowl.

Either way, we are guaranteed a HOF QB vs a badass D, and that should entertain everybody

 

[Clayton]

Really thats interesting. Are you taking into account Seattles one weakness the passing game, would get Sydney Rice and Percy Harvin healthy in this scenario?

Its hard to say. Its just the Gronk and Wilfork might be the Pats 2nd and 3rd best players and Von Miller is the Broncos 2nd best player and probably a top 10 player in the league.

But Harvin was probably a top 15-20 player in the league for the Vikings but we haven't really seen if he can duplicate that. Seattle was the favorite at the beginning of the year and the NFC West was the most dominant conference so there is an argument that they would have been favored but I think thats pretty moot. They will be favored unless something catastrophic happens.

 

[Morpheus]

keep in mind:

Broncos, 49ers, and Hawks have the #7 run D ypc allowed (3.9), while Pats have the #24 run D ypc allowed

The Pats and 49ers have the #9 rushing offense by ypc (4.4) followed by #12 Seattle (4.3) and #17 Denver (4.1)



if the Pats had a QB like Wilson or Kap, it would be interesting to see how the Pats #9 rushing offense did against the #7 run D of the 49ers and Hawks. But the Pats have a balanced offense that is tough to defend, which is why the Pats have the #3 scoring offense (1 pt on the whole season shy of #2). Brady is #6 in the NFL in passing yards and a two-time Super Bowl MVP. Pats don't have a run-oriented offense like the Hawks or 49ers (the #26 and #30 passing offenses by ypg)



Manning might also struggle vs the 49ers secondary (49ers have the #4 pass efficiency D). The Pats, with their more balanced offense could be tougher for either the 49ers or Hawks to stop



for competitive purposes, the Pats D (#24 run D ypc allowed) seems to be at a big disadvantage vs the run-oriented NFC teams in comparison to the Broncos (#7 run D ypc allowed). But the Broncos weak pass D (below the NFL avg in both pass efficiency D and passing ypc allowed) could allow the Hawks and 49ers to open up their run game via the pass (while the Hawks and 49ers don't pass much, when they do they are efficient - Hawks have #5 pass efficiency offense, 49ers #9). The Pats, on the other hand, with their #9 pass efficiency D (and #4 pass D by opponent completion pct allowed) could have an easier time selling out to stop the running game of the NFC teams. Plus, the Pats would have BB, the greatest mind in football (probably ever) going against a young QB in Kap or Wilson. And the Pats have the #10 scoring D while Denver has the #22 scoring D. And New England should be most at home in the Super Bowl weather in New Jersey

as for entertainment purposes, while Fox v Carroll might not have the same oomph as BB v Harbaugh, I think everybody would enjoy watching Manning with his record-setting season go for Ring #2 against the best secondary in the NFL, a secondary that features two leading DPOY candidates.

and watching Brady going for Ring #4 (tying Montana and Bradshaw) if he wins, and going for 0-3 in his last Super Bowls if he loses, should be entertaining as well

Between the Hawks and 49ers, they are both so similar. Hawks have that secondary that is in a league of its own, and are by far #1 in forced turnovers (including INTs). 49ers have Bolden/Davis/Crabtree/Gore. If the 49ers can go into Seattle and get a W, we can all agree they deserve to be in the Super Bowl.

Either way, we are guaranteed a HOF QB vs a badass D, and that should entertain everybody

Your statement seems to say the Broncos do not have a balanced offense because they are so good at the passing game. By default it insinuates they do not have a good running game.

This would be false, The Broncos can run the ball very efficiently when they need to. They just have had so much success throwing the ball that it replaces a lot of plays where you might call run and still gives you that same success.

Broncos offense was really good at 3rd down efficiency this season (2nd behind the Chargers 3rd Down Efficiency - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics ) running or passing and also put themselves in a lot of 2nd and short where they converted a first down or were converting and moving the chains on 1st down.

I also believe they were 8 for 9 going for it on 4th down this year.

4th Down Efficiency - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics


I would say they can move the ball on the ground or through the air and were the #1 team in redzone efficiency.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

 

[Morpheus]

keep in mind:

Broncos, 49ers, and Hawks have the #7 run D ypc allowed (3.9), while Pats have the #24 run D ypc allowed

The Pats and 49ers have the #9 rushing offense by ypc (4.4) followed by #12 Seattle (4.3) and #17 Denver (4.1)



if the Pats had a QB like Wilson or Kap, it would be interesting to see how the Pats #9 rushing offense did against the #7 run D of the 49ers and Hawks. But the Pats have a balanced offense that is tough to defend, which is why the Pats have the #3 scoring offense (1 pt on the whole season shy of #2). Brady is #6 in the NFL in passing yards and a two-time Super Bowl MVP. Pats don't have a run-oriented offense like the Hawks or 49ers (the #26 and #30 passing offenses by ypg)



Manning might also struggle vs the 49ers secondary (49ers have the #4 pass efficiency D). The Pats, with their more balanced offense could be tougher for either the 49ers or Hawks to stop



for competitive purposes, the Pats D (#24 run D ypc allowed) seems to be at a big disadvantage vs the run-oriented NFC teams in comparison to the Broncos (#7 run D ypc allowed). But the Broncos weak pass D (below the NFL avg in both pass efficiency D and passing ypc allowed) could allow the Hawks and 49ers to open up their run game via the pass (while the Hawks and 49ers don't pass much, when they do they are efficient - Hawks have #5 pass efficiency offense, 49ers #9). The Pats, on the other hand, with their #9 pass efficiency D (and #4 pass D by opponent completion pct allowed) could have an easier time selling out to stop the running game of the NFC teams. Plus, the Pats would have BB, the greatest mind in football (probably ever) going against a young QB in Kap or Wilson. And the Pats have the #10 scoring D while Denver has the #22 scoring D. And New England should be most at home in the Super Bowl weather in New Jersey

as for entertainment purposes, while Fox v Carroll might not have the same oomph as BB v Harbaugh, I think everybody would enjoy watching Manning with his record-setting season go for Ring #2 against the best secondary in the NFL, a secondary that features two leading DPOY candidates.

and watching Brady going for Ring #4 (tying Montana and Bradshaw) if he wins, and going for 0-3 in his last Super Bowls if he loses, should be entertaining as well

Between the Hawks and 49ers, they are both so similar. Hawks have that secondary that is in a league of its own, and are by far #1 in forced turnovers (including INTs). 49ers have Bolden/Davis/Crabtree/Gore. If the 49ers can go into Seattle and get a W, we can all agree they deserve to be in the Super Bowl.

Either way, we are guaranteed a HOF QB vs a badass D, and that should entertain everybody

Your statement seems to say the Broncos do not have a balanced offense because they are so good at the passing game. By default it insinuates they do not have a good running game.

This would be false, The Broncos can run the ball very efficiently when they need to. They just have had so much success throwing the ball that it replaces a lot of plays where you might call run and still gives you that same success.

Broncos offense was really good at 3rd down efficiency this season (2nd behind the Chargers 3rd Down Efficiency - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics ) running or passing and also put themselves in a lot of 2nd and short where they converted a first down or were converting and moving the chains on 1st down.

I also believe they were 8 for 9 going for it on 4th down this year.

4th Down Efficiency - 2013 - NFL Season Statistics


I would say they can move the ball on the ground or through the air and were the #1 team in redzone efficiency.

NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) on TeamRankings.com

 

[Morpheus]

Damn edit timeout.

Only way the Broncos offense can be slowed down is by the Broncos.


Their 3 losses this year they were on the negative side of turnovers.