Projection Time for 2017

[seahawksfan234]

King Felix was definitely hurt by the alleged absence of the marine layer. His 3.93 home ERA was the worst of his career. It was even higher than his home ERA in 2006 when his overall ERA was 4.52.

But on the flip side, Cano actually posted his lowest home OPS of the three years he has played here. His OPS home/road splits were .802/.962.

So, for me, it's a hard sell that the Marine layer was less of a factor last year than in previous years. It's easier for me to believe that the baseball was juiced last year.

Felix was hurt by age and innings, which subsequently induced a reduction in velocity. He was able to compensate for a decline in velocity in the past, but didn't seem able to do it last year. I genuinely believe that his days as a dominant starter are over. He will be a solid mid 3 to low 4 ERA pitcher, but I highly doubt Felix will ever post an ERA lower than 3 again in his career.

 

[dude82]

Felix was hurt by age and innings, which subsequently induced a reduction in velocity. He was able to compensate for a decline in velocity in the past, but didn't seem able to do it last year. I genuinely believe that his days as a dominant starter are over. He will be a solid mid 3 to low 4 ERA pitcher, but I highly doubt Felix will ever post an ERA lower than 3 again in his career.

I think he bounces back and has a more typical Felix season. He's still only 30 years old (31 in April) and while he's been pitching in the majors since he was a teenager and has logged a ton of stressful innings in that time, I'm not ready to say that his time as an Ace is over. I've heard that he's been throwing his fastball harder this spring than he did last year and I remember hearing that he's committed to throwing his 4-seamer more often this season. From what I've read, he seems to have fallen in love with his 2-seamer and his offspeed stuff a bit too much the past couple of seasons.

He was lights out tonight (one hit allowed in 6 innings on 73 pitches and the one hit was a "shift" hit) and he probably has one more spring start before the regular season begins. I say with a new approach on the mound and a healthier body off of it, he'll get back to being the kind of pitcher we had the pleasure of seeing for so many years. Maybe he doesn't post an ERA in the low 2's, but unless something goes horribly wrong, I can't see him posting an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 either.

 

[JMR]

I think we have a good team, a team that is better than last year. But, Cano, Cruz and Seager all had career years. It is hard to reasonably expect guys like Cano and Cruz to reproduce the years they had last year considering their age. That being said, I expect a similar year to last year. We will either make the playoffs by a very, very slim margin, or miss out by just as slim of a margin.

I'm not sure the big 3 will see much of a decline if at all. Cruz is the oldest of the bunch, but his production has been pretty steady the last 3 season. He will turn 37 in the middle of the summer, but if spring is any indication then it seems he's still a ways away from showing signs of aging. It seems like he'll not touch a glove at all this year as well, outside of many @ NL parks, and that should help as well. I'm not at all worried about Cano. With how smooth he plays, I wouldn't be surprised to see him play til he's nearly 40 at a high level. Seager isn't even 30 yet, so he should still be on the incline. If these guys do dip a bit, injuries is probably the reason.

The thing that is going to help the team is the production I think we'll get at other spots this year. Zunino hit 12 HRs in 55 games last year. He isn't gonna be a high average hitter I don't think, but ~25 HRs from a catcher who plays as well as he does behind the plate is huge. There will be a lot more offense from the SS position this season as well. Our 9-1-2 guys all have the ability to steal 30+ bases. Way more help for the big 3 than there was before.

 

[JMR]

Felix was hurt by age and innings, which subsequently induced a reduction in velocity. He was able to compensate for a decline in velocity in the past, but didn't seem able to do it last year. I genuinely believe that his days as a dominant starter are over. He will be a solid mid 3 to low 4 ERA pitcher, but I highly doubt Felix will ever post an ERA lower than 3 again in his career.

I think he can be really good without a sub-3 ERA. That's a tough standard to hit -- none of the qualifying AL pitchers did it last season. The thing that killed Felix last year was the spike in number of bad starts. You're going to have a tough outing here and there over the course of a 30-start season, but a few times he got bombed really bad. If he cuts that down to a normal number for a season, he'll be back in the low 3 range.

I think he bounces back and has a more typical Felix season. He's still only 30 years old (31 in April) and while he's been pitching in the majors since he was a teenager and has logged a ton of stressful innings in that time, I'm not ready to say that his time as an Ace is over. I've heard that he's been throwing his fastball harder this spring than he did last year and I remember hearing that he's committed to throwing his 4-seamer more often this season. From what I've read, he seems to have fallen in love with his 2-seamer and his offspeed stuff a bit too much the past couple of seasons.

He was lights out tonight (one hit allowed in 6 innings on 73 pitches and the one hit was a "shift" hit) and he probably has one more spring start before the regular season begins. I say with a new approach on the mound and a healthier body off of it, he'll get back to being the kind of pitcher we had the pleasure of seeing for so many years. Maybe he doesn't post an ERA in the low 2's, but unless something goes horribly wrong, I can't see him posting an ERA between 3.50 and 4.00 either.

I heard in his WBC start vs USA, he hit 93.6 on his fastball. I guess that is encouraging, but I am expecting him to be between 89-92 most of the time. He can be successful in that range with movement and command -- saw Greg Maddux do that for many years. A better defense behind him should help a lot as well. I expect a better season than what we saw last year, but it's tough to imagine he's ever going to get back to what he was 5 years ago.

 

[StanMarsh51]

I think he can be really good without a sub-3 ERA. That's a tough standard to hit -- none of the qualifying AL pitchers did it last season. The thing that killed Felix last year was the spike in number of bad starts. You're going to have a tough outing here and there over the course of a 30-start season, but a few times he got bombed really bad. If he cuts that down to a normal number for a season, he'll be back in the low 3 range.

A concern with Felix last year was that his ERA could've been a lot worse than it was, given that his FIP was 4.63. His WHIP, BB/9, K/9 were all below league average last year, so if he keeps that up then his ERA should be expected to rise.

Looking at his game log, in a good chunk of the games where he didn't give up many runs, he allowed a good amount of baserunners. If he keeps that up, it's likely to catch up to him.

 

[JMR]

A concern with Felix last year was that his ERA could've been a lot worse than it was, given that his FIP was 4.63. His WHIP, BB/9, K/9 were all below league average last year, so if he keeps that up then his ERA should be expected to rise.

Looking at his game log, in a good chunk of the games where he didn't give up many runs, he allowed a good amount of baserunners. If he keeps that up, it's likely to catch up to him.

Yeah, that's fair. But the defense behind him was also pretty bad and is expected to be MUCH improved this year, especially in the OF.

 

[PolarVortex]

Felix was hurt by age and innings, which subsequently induced a reduction in velocity. He was able to compensate for a decline in velocity in the past, but didn't seem able to do it last year. I genuinely believe that his days as a dominant starter are over. He will be a solid mid 3 to low 4 ERA pitcher, but I highly doubt Felix will ever post an ERA lower than 3 again in his career.

Felix only had a 4 mph separation between his fastball and his change up. When he was in his prime, he had an 11 mph separation.

Felix doesn't have to have his 95 mph fastball anymore to be effective, but he does have to have a decent separation between his fastball and his changeup, which has always been his out pitch. 4 mph isn't going to cut it. He has to adapt to his new reality.

He's looked pretty good so far this spring and I think he has a fairly high baseball IQ. So, I'm hopeful. Wary, but hopeful.

 

[SeattleCoug]

I still remember the 2004 season, when the Mariners waited too long to bring in younger talent and the team got old overnight. That could happen again this year. The offense relies so much on Cruz and Cano, and those are getting up there. I don't think it will happen this year, but, the possibility lingers.

So if Cruz and Cano can provide another 200 RBIs between them, then I think the team will be okay. Starting pitching is going to be a wild card. Safeco suddenly isn't a pitcher's park anymore. Hernandez isn't aging well. Iwakuma can no longer stay effective over a 162 game schedule. Paxton is a brittle bitch. Gallardo is about three years past his prime. Smyly is not as good as Ariel Miranda but for some dumbass reason, he's getting a rotation spot.

If this team hits on all cylinders, they are a 90-win playoff team. But I don't think they will hit on all cylinders.

Sorry for the glass half empty, pessimistic prognosis.

I disagree on Paxton and Smyly but agree on everything else.

Paxton was actually healthy all last year outside of two weeks. I can't fault him for getting hit by a line drive. His numbers were actually pretty good once he came up.

I have a hunch on Smyly that he will do well but I could easily be wrong

 

[NWinAZ]

I have a hunch on Smyly that he will do well but I could easily be wrong

I think he is as big of a key as anyone on the team. He is a guy I always wanted so I am all in on him. I hope he proves me right.

 

[Anointed One]

I think we'll hit 89 wins this year, good enough for a WC spot...

 

[Anointed One]

I think he is as big of a key as anyone on the team. He is a guy I always wanted so I am all in on him. I hope he proves me right.

I like him too... I think he'll be a big anchor for us in the starting lineup...

 

[NWinAZ]

I say they win 89 games and just miss out. Pitching will come back to bite us. We just can't put out a complete team even when they say they are going for it.

Win total off, but reason...nailed it! LOL.

 

[unlvmariners]

Make the playoffs...

My concerns are mainly the quality of the starting 5, do they stay healthy? Does Paxton make than next step? Do the guys coming off down years bounce back? I think that the depth beyond the starting 5 ended up being pretty good at first it was looking like Dipoto was going to forget about the depth again. All in all I think the pitching could end up in the middle of the pack.

The offense has the potential to be one of the better ones in the league. Adding some speed to the lineup was a welcome addition to the team. They should be more active on the bases this season.

Idiot!!!

 

[NWinAZ]

Idiot!!!

Playoff prediction failed much like my 89 win prediction, but your reasoning was on point.

 

[unlvmariners]

Playoff prediction failed much like my 89 win prediction, but your reasoning was on point.

This team ended up being quite a bit worse than I thought they would be. 89 wins didn't seem crazy at all at the time.

We all saw the holes before the season, but kept the hope that they could overcome said holes.. Fact is those holes ended up being sink holes and Dipoto had no clue how to fix it, not to say he didn't try he just went full Mariner... Never go full Mariner!!!

 

[mcnabb7542]

Idiot!!!

It's okay buddy we all, (well most of us) drank the kool aid.....

Of course NW hit his prediction right of the park.......

Let's hope our Rebels can produce for us this year!

 

[unlvmariners]

It's okay buddy we all, (well most of us) drank the kool aid.....

Of course NW hit his prediction right of the park.......

Let's hope our Rebels can produce for us this year!

I keep hoping the Rebs get back to winning ways. Might be one more season before they are legit again. Menzies seems to recruit good players (never been a problem for UNLV though).

 

[SeattleCoug]

I disagree on Paxton and Smyly but agree on everything else.

Paxton was actually healthy all last year outside of two weeks. I can't fault him for getting hit by a line drive. His numbers were actually pretty good once he came up.

I have a hunch on Smyly that he will do well but I could easily be wrong

Ugh. Fucking Mariners