Projecting the 2017 QB Market

[Caliskinsfan]

Interesting article. Can't say I disagree with the take on Kirk.


Projecting the 2017 NFL quarterback market


Excerpt

Kirk Cousins, Washington
I'm not sure we're any clearer on Cousins' future than we were before this season started. He has been up and down in 2016, with five interceptions in five starts despite throwing just 22.4 percent of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest percentage of any regular starter in football. In one game alone, a cursory tape analysis saw Cousins leave three long touchdown passes on the field with bad throws. And yet Cousins has also had stretches in which he has played at a relatively high level. His QBR of 59.6 is a step below last year's 74.5 mark, but it's still good enough for 18th in the league.

Last year, the move that made sense for all parties was for Washington to franchise Cousins, which it did. This offseason, GM Scot McCloughan will have to make a tougher call. Franchising Cousins would cost Washington $24 million on a one-year deal, which would give him the third-highest cap hit in football behind Romo and Joe Flacco. It's not off the table entirely, but that would be an inefficient use of resources. More likely, McCloughan will want to go ahead with Cousins as his quarterback on a multiyear deal or find a new passer.

To be honest, I'm not sure what the right call will be or how things will go. This time last year, Cousins still looked like a turnover machine. He threw eight interceptions in his first six starts, and then, going against everything he had exhibited throughout his career, Cousins threw just three over the following 10 games. Stay tuned.

Likelihood of Cousins leaving: 35 percent

 

[ehb5]

 

[ehb5]

Interesting article. Can't say I disagree with the take on Kirk.


Projecting the 2017 NFL quarterback market


Excerpt

Kirk Cousins, Washington
I'm not sure we're any clearer on Cousins' future than we were before this season started. He has been up and down in 2016, with five interceptions in five starts despite throwing just 22.4 percent of his passes 10 or more yards downfield, the lowest percentage of any regular starter in football. In one game alone, a cursory tape analysis saw Cousins leave three long touchdown passes on the field with bad throws. And yet Cousins has also had stretches in which he has played at a relatively high level. His QBR of 59.6 is a step below last year's 74.5 mark, but it's still good enough for 18th in the league.

Last year, the move that made sense for all parties was for Washington to franchise Cousins, which it did. This offseason, GM Scot McCloughan will have to make a tougher call. Franchising Cousins would cost Washington $24 million on a one-year deal, which would give him the third-highest cap hit in football behind Romo and Joe Flacco. It's not off the table entirely, but that would be an inefficient use of resources. More likely, McCloughan will want to go ahead with Cousins as his quarterback on a multiyear deal or find a new passer.

To be honest, I'm not sure what the right call will be or how things will go. This time last year, Cousins still looked like a turnover machine. He threw eight interceptions in his first six starts, and then, going against everything he had exhibited throughout his career, Cousins threw just three over the following 10 games. Stay tuned.

Likelihood of Cousins leaving: 35 percent

This is why Y/att doesnt automatically mean hes throwing downfield.

 

[Caliskinsfan]

This is why Y/att doesnt automatically mean hes throwing downfield.

Think you and I are in agreement about that.

 

[Stymietee]

I'm real curious as to how he arrived at 35% considering what he wrote. Here's my current look at it. Key word current. Kirk did enough to earn the tag last year but more important, another chance to grasp full control of the spot and a long term deal. Thus far he's playing below the level of play that earned him that second opportunity, again key words are thus far. Based on his play in comparison to how he projected at the end of last season, I'd conclude that if the season ended today, the team likely would offer him another less than market contract, with an eye towards obtaining / drafting the perceived upgrade. Chance of Kirk leaving 50%

BTW: somebody appears to be reaching for a story....wayyyyyy to early!!

 

[skinsdad62]

Let the season play out

 

[Caliskinsfan]

Let the season play out

Goes without saying.

Still interesting to speculate on regardless.

 

[gkekoa]

I was all about signing him long term and can still defend it. Think about it like this...

He is not playing to his potential right now and we are still 3-2 having beat 2 quality opponents, while having a sucks defense.

 

[j_y19]

I'm real curious as to how he arrived at 35% considering what he wrote. Here's my current look at it. Key word current. Kirk did enough to earn the tag last year but more important, another chance to grasp full control of the spot and a long term deal. Thus far he's playing below the level of play that earned him that second opportunity, again key words are thus far. Based on his play in comparison to how he projected at the end of last season, I'd conclude that if the season ended today, the team likely would offer him another less than market contract, with an eye towards obtaining / drafting the perceived upgrade. Chance of Kirk leaving 50%

BTW: somebody appears to be reaching for a story....wayyyyyy to early!!

I agree with your analysis. And it is way too early to make these projections.

 

[Sportster 72]

The only guy I would be remotely interested in on that list and he is so unproven is Jimmy G. Anyone else I would rather stick with Cousins.

 

[gkekoa]

I think Osweiller is proving you don't waste money on unproven QBS from a different team.

 

[j_y19]

I think Osweiller is proving you don't waste money on unproven QBS from a different team.

That has been proven time and again. However, that lesson is not learned by all. Which means someone will be willing to pay KC big money after this year. Which means we will have a very difficult decision this off season. Assuming what we see from KC this year is what we can expect going forward (not a safe assumption at this point), we will either have to franchise tag him at a huge number or sign him to a long term deal at another huge number, just spread out over multiple years. Is a middle of the road QB worth it? That's going to be the argument we all will be into in about 3 months.

 

[Sportster 72]

I think Osweiller is proving you don't waste money on unproven QBS from a different team.

No argument so hence my point. If you think you can retain the receivers we have for another year or two MAYBE you go with an older experienced QB but then you need to improve the D significantly.

Whoever is recommending going with McCoy must see that as a cost cutting measure unless you subscribe to the theory if you have a couple of good games you must be a good QB ala Carson Wentz, Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin, Nick Foles .... maybe they are, maybe they aren't.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

That has been proven time and again. However, that lesson is not learned by all. Which means someone will be willing to pay KC big money after this year. Which means we will have a very difficult decision this off season. Assuming what we see from KC this year is what we can expect going forward (not a safe assumption at this point), we will either have to franchise tag him at a huge number or sign him to a long term deal at another huge number, just spread out over multiple years. Is a middle of the road QB worth it? That's going to be the argument we all will be into in about 3 months.

Exactly which is why I said we are screwed either way because there are plenty of teams who see him as a huge upgrade and will make a big offer if he became available.. Sure we should let the season play out but does anyone seeing it playing out any differently than what we know already? Even if he lights it up we are left with an inconsistant QB. It should be obvious by now that this is who Kirk is. Occassional greatness, often pretty good, just a middle of the road NFL starter. Good enough to retain but probably never good enough to excell.

So what choice does the team have but to extend? He is certainly better than the vast majority of QBs we have had over the decades, better than half the starters around the league and better than just about every other option available.

 

[j_y19]

Exactly which is why I said we are screwed either way because there are plenty of teams who see him as a huge upgrade and will make a big offer if he became available.. Sure we should let the season play out but does anyone seeing it playing out any differently than what we know already? Even if he lights it up we are left with an inconsistant QB. It should be obvious by now that this is who Kirk is. Occassional greatness, often pretty good, just a middle of the road NFL starter. Good enough to retain but probably never good enough to excell.

So what choice does the team have but to extend? He is certainly better than the vast majority of QBs we have had over the decades, better than half the starters around the league and better than just about every other option available.

Hey, I have a unique idea. Why don't we trade away the next three drafts to move up and take the next can't miss college QB? How could that not work?

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Hey, I have a unique idea. Why don't we trade away the next three drafts to move up and take the next can't miss college QB? How could that not work?

You will see on Sunday just how this idea is not so crazy. There isn't a person in Philly today who would take that trade back.

 

[j_y19]

You will see on Sunday just how this idea is not so crazy. There isn't a person in Philly today who would take that trade back.

Give it time......

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Yeah yeah, things could always change, But if you aren't concerned that Philly and Dallas both appear to have better young QBs than we do well you should be.

 

[j_y19]

Yeah yeah, things could always change, But if you aren't concerned that Philly and Dallas both appear to have better young QBs than we do well you should be.

Concerned? Not yet. Watching with great interest? Yes. I remember a time not too long ago when we had a rookie QB. After his first 5 games, we were convinced we had the QB of the future also. Just give it time and see if they hold up.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

Concerned? Not yet. Watching with great interest? Yes. I remember a time not too long ago when we had a rookie QB. After his first 5 games, we were convinced we had the QB of the future also. Just give it time and see if they hold up.

Not completely sold on Prescott but there is absolutely nothing in Carson Wentz that indicates gimmick offense, injury prone self absorbed prima donna. To go from South Dakota State to this sort of instant production without even a preseason is very concerning.