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Part 1 of 2
Cowboys trail only Seahawks in NFC projected standings - NFL
By Aaron Schatz
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2015 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation.
But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2015 records to build his 2016 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average ratings (found here) and then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last season's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.
Today, I'll go through the NFC, division by division, and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2015. (We did the AFC on Monday, which also contains a more detailed description of how we came up with these projections.) Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Minnesota is No. 1) to the easiest (Atlanta).
(Note: When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2015, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of Football Outsiders Almanac 2015.)
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 11-5 (11.2 mean wins, SOS: 18)
New York Giants 9-7 (9.4 mean wins, SOS: 24)
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 (8.7 mean wins, SOS: 23)
Washington Redskins 5-11 (5.0 mean wins, SOS: 17)
Last year, these projections had the Cowboys way too low, with a mean forecast of just 7-9. This year, our projection looks too extreme in the other direction. How can Dallas be the second-best team in the league despite the loss of DeMarco Murray? History says that losing a top running back doesn't tend to have a strong impact on overall offensive quality. The passing game and the offensive line simply have much more importance in the modern NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have more injuries on offense (No. 2 in our adjusted games lost metric) but better health on defense (No. 28 in AGL) should help improve that unit to league average. (The Cowboys are also the only NFC East team that will not have to face the suspended Tom Brady).
Improved health is also a big reason we have the Giants projected to improve, but there are clearly some issues in the Giants' training room. Big Blue has led the league in adjusted games lost for two straight seasons. So while this projection assumes some regression toward the mean, it doesn't assume as much as it would with other teams. And if the Giants have another season as the most injured team in the league, this forecast is clearly going to be too high.
Just as there are subjective reasons to believe that the Giants' may not get a boost when health regresses toward the mean by improving, there are subjective reasons to believe that the Eagles (and Chip Kelly's sports science program) may not get worse when their health regresses toward the mean by declining. But we do have to penalize the Eagles for introducing a new quarterback to their system, which usually means an offensive step back, all other things being equal.
There are some good indicators for Washington -- drafting an offensive tackle high, rebounding from poor health on defense last year -- but we still expect a poor season overall. Washington doesn't look like the worst team in the league, but got the No. 1 pick in Todd McShay's mock draft because it had the easiest schedule of the three teams projected to go 5-11.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10-6 (9.9 mean wins, SOS: 13)
Chicago Bears 7-9 (7.3 mean wins, SOS: 15)
Detroit Lions 7-9 (6.6 mean wins, SOS: 4)
Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (5.9 mean wins, SOS: 1)
Green Bay has ranked in the top five of our DVOA ratings every year since 2009. ... Except for 2013, when they were eighth the week before losing Aaron Rodgers for the second half of the season. Is there any reason to expect things to be different in 2015? Not really, although if the Packers can't match their health from last year (No. 3 in offensive AGL, No. 9 in defensive AGL) they'll rank closer to fifth than first overall in 2015.
Chicago's health was as negative as Green Bay's was positive (No. 27 in offensive AGL, NO. 26 in defensive AGL), which is an objective reason to believe the Bears will improve in 2015. A subjective reason, not indicated in these numbers, is that the coaching change has to have an impact given the way the locker room seemed to completely quit on Marc Trestman last season.
On Monday, we picked Miami as the hottest sleeper team in the AFC, in part because awful special teams tend to regress toward the mean stronger than offense or defense. So why aren't we predicting the same thing for the Lions, whose special teams were nearly as bad as Miami's in 2014? Because on defense, the Dolphins added Ndamukong Suh while the Lions have to subtract him, and because Detroit also has one of the toughest projected schedules in the league this season.
And speaking of tough projected schedules: There are many reasons to believe in the Minnesota Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater improved significantly in the second half of the year and now has Mike Wallace as a quality downfield weapon. Adrian Peterson is supposed to be back. Mike Zimmer is a well-regarded coach, especially when it comes to defense. But the statistical projections still don't see the young defensive talent coalescing yet, and the projected hardest schedule in the league will be a serious problem. Sell your tickets for the Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl 50 bandwagon and buy tickets for the Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl 51 bandwagon instead. (Or is that Super Bowl LI? It's confusing.)
Cowboys trail only Seahawks in NFC projected standings - NFL
By Aaron Schatz
With the NFL draft in the rearview mirror, Football Outsiders is ready to move on to projecting the 2015 season. Unfortunately, we're not yet finished building our more complicated forecast, which involves a lot of variables and a big Monte Carlo simulation.
But when Todd McShay asked us for some projected 2015 records to build his 2016 mock draft, we put together some quick-and-dirty projections that started with Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average ratings (found here) and then applied the usual regression toward the mean that a good or bad team sees from each unit. We then adjusted the projections to account for last season's injury numbers, major free-agent moves and a few other indicators.
Today, I'll go through the NFC, division by division, and explain why we see certain teams moving up and down in 2015. (We did the AFC on Monday, which also contains a more detailed description of how we came up with these projections.) Each team has a forecasted record but also, for those of you wanting more detail, a more exact "mean projected wins" number. We also list strength of schedule based on average projected DVOA of next season's 16 opponents, ranked from the hardest (Minnesota is No. 1) to the easiest (Atlanta).
(Note: When considering these numbers, remember that this is not the final, official Football Outsiders forecast for 2015, and some of these projections will change between now and the July publication of Football Outsiders Almanac 2015.)
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys 11-5 (11.2 mean wins, SOS: 18)
New York Giants 9-7 (9.4 mean wins, SOS: 24)
Philadelphia Eagles 9-7 (8.7 mean wins, SOS: 23)
Washington Redskins 5-11 (5.0 mean wins, SOS: 17)
Last year, these projections had the Cowboys way too low, with a mean forecast of just 7-9. This year, our projection looks too extreme in the other direction. How can Dallas be the second-best team in the league despite the loss of DeMarco Murray? History says that losing a top running back doesn't tend to have a strong impact on overall offensive quality. The passing game and the offensive line simply have much more importance in the modern NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have more injuries on offense (No. 2 in our adjusted games lost metric) but better health on defense (No. 28 in AGL) should help improve that unit to league average. (The Cowboys are also the only NFC East team that will not have to face the suspended Tom Brady).
Improved health is also a big reason we have the Giants projected to improve, but there are clearly some issues in the Giants' training room. Big Blue has led the league in adjusted games lost for two straight seasons. So while this projection assumes some regression toward the mean, it doesn't assume as much as it would with other teams. And if the Giants have another season as the most injured team in the league, this forecast is clearly going to be too high.
Just as there are subjective reasons to believe that the Giants' may not get a boost when health regresses toward the mean by improving, there are subjective reasons to believe that the Eagles (and Chip Kelly's sports science program) may not get worse when their health regresses toward the mean by declining. But we do have to penalize the Eagles for introducing a new quarterback to their system, which usually means an offensive step back, all other things being equal.
There are some good indicators for Washington -- drafting an offensive tackle high, rebounding from poor health on defense last year -- but we still expect a poor season overall. Washington doesn't look like the worst team in the league, but got the No. 1 pick in Todd McShay's mock draft because it had the easiest schedule of the three teams projected to go 5-11.
NFC North
Green Bay Packers 10-6 (9.9 mean wins, SOS: 13)
Chicago Bears 7-9 (7.3 mean wins, SOS: 15)
Detroit Lions 7-9 (6.6 mean wins, SOS: 4)
Minnesota Vikings 6-10 (5.9 mean wins, SOS: 1)
Green Bay has ranked in the top five of our DVOA ratings every year since 2009. ... Except for 2013, when they were eighth the week before losing Aaron Rodgers for the second half of the season. Is there any reason to expect things to be different in 2015? Not really, although if the Packers can't match their health from last year (No. 3 in offensive AGL, No. 9 in defensive AGL) they'll rank closer to fifth than first overall in 2015.
Chicago's health was as negative as Green Bay's was positive (No. 27 in offensive AGL, NO. 26 in defensive AGL), which is an objective reason to believe the Bears will improve in 2015. A subjective reason, not indicated in these numbers, is that the coaching change has to have an impact given the way the locker room seemed to completely quit on Marc Trestman last season.
On Monday, we picked Miami as the hottest sleeper team in the AFC, in part because awful special teams tend to regress toward the mean stronger than offense or defense. So why aren't we predicting the same thing for the Lions, whose special teams were nearly as bad as Miami's in 2014? Because on defense, the Dolphins added Ndamukong Suh while the Lions have to subtract him, and because Detroit also has one of the toughest projected schedules in the league this season.
And speaking of tough projected schedules: There are many reasons to believe in the Minnesota Vikings. Teddy Bridgewater improved significantly in the second half of the year and now has Mike Wallace as a quality downfield weapon. Adrian Peterson is supposed to be back. Mike Zimmer is a well-regarded coach, especially when it comes to defense. But the statistical projections still don't see the young defensive talent coalescing yet, and the projected hardest schedule in the league will be a serious problem. Sell your tickets for the Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl 50 bandwagon and buy tickets for the Minnesota Vikings Super Bowl 51 bandwagon instead. (Or is that Super Bowl LI? It's confusing.)
