Poor Dodgers :(

[Clayton]

It is everything. The bullpen wasn't just aweful in October, they have been awful for the last two years. I blame Honeycutt for that. But that being said, the majority of our bullpen except for Wilson and Jansen have very little playoff experience, let alone time in a Dodger uniform.

Overall, I agree with you. My whole point though is that people are just hanging all of this on Dodger payroll meaning that they should win the ring automatically, and I think it's very clear that "everything matters" not just payroll.

I guess my main point is that you can't hide your weaknesses in the playoffs. If you have someone on your team that can't play defense, the ball will find him. If a guy can't hit left handed pitching, he will face left handed pitchers. If a guy hits into double plays, he will get double play balls. If your bullpen is bad, it will get beat up.

Football and basketball have time limits. The strong parts of your team can hold the ball or control things. In baseball, every man on the team has to perform.

 

[CatsTopPac]

My only disagreement with you is with your statement that player payroll is not a significant factor. I think it is. I agree with you that the other factors are important. Just think about it. If the amount you spend on player payroll does not help you significantly, then why are the Dodgers spending so much on something that is not significant?

Because they can. If payroll was significant, then every year the WS teams would be top 5, and all of the playoff teams would be top half. That is never the case. Teams with top payrolls miss the playoff (and some do horribly, in fact), and teams with weak payrolls make the playoffs (and some make it often).

I'm not saying it's not a factor, just not as the default to why the Dodgers don't win the WS this year or last.

 

[msgkings322]

I guess my main point is that you can't hide your weaknesses in the playoffs. If you have someone on your team that can't play defense, the ball will find him. If a guy can't hit left handed pitching, he will face left handed pitchers. If a guy hits into double plays, he will get double play balls. If your bullpen is bad, it will get beat up.

Football and basketball have time limits. The strong parts of your team can hold the ball or control things. In baseball, every man on the team has to perform.

This is an astute comment, well said.

So now our teams face off...what in your opinion is the Cards' weak link(s)? The Giants' problems IMO are left field, lack of a decent leadoff hitter, and baserunning.

I predict a 6 or 7 game series of mostly low-scoring close games but as I've mentioned, these things are uniquely unpredictable.

 

[CatsTopPac]

I guess my main point is that you can't hide your weaknesses in the playoffs. If you have someone on your team that can't play defense, the ball will find him. If a guy can't hit left handed pitching, he will face left handed pitchers. If a guy hits into double plays, he will get double play balls. If your bullpen is bad, it will get beat up.

Football and basketball have time limits. The strong parts of your team can hold the ball or control things. In baseball, every man on the team has to perform.

Agree for the most part. Ellis was batted .191 this year but .538 against you guys. And neither stat is much different than last year. You could say the same but opposite fashion with Kershaw. Dee played well this year but it was his first postseason ever, and he led off and played 2B. Dee looked like he was 12. Puig did horribly against you guys last year after doing well against the Braves and in both seasons. He also looked like a frantic kid. Carpenter is a monster right now hitting 3 HR at .375 after hitting 8 HR total this year batting .272. You could point to Gonzalez and Puig as well who did well in the year and failed uncharacteristically in the playoffs. Our defense was shit all year, but outstanding against you. many times the most talented team isn't the one that wins. It's the most sound and experienced. The Giants and Cards should know all about this. They are both playing their best baseball right now, especially SF who got in as a WC.

However for our bullpen, you are absolutely correct. And again, we are not talking about payroll.

 

[Robotech]

Because they can. If payroll was significant, then every year the WS teams would be top 5, and all of the playoff teams would be top half. That is never the case. Teams with top payrolls miss the playoff (and some do horribly, in fact), and teams with weak payrolls make the playoffs (and some make it often).

I'm not saying it's not a factor, just not as the default to why the Dodgers don't win the WS this year or last.

It sounds like your definition of significant factor is "only factor". I've repeatedly said it's not the only factor. It's hard to argue that player payroll is not a significant factor. The Dodgers' decision to heavily invest in it tells you they believe it is significant. In addition, when was the last time a bottom-half payroll team won the World Series? Marlins in 2003, maybe. If you look at all the teams that have won the World Series since then, I think you would find teams with healthy payrolls.

 

[BeaverShaver]

Well, we can find solace in the fact that we don't live in Arizona.

Or SoCal for that matter.

 

[Robotech]

Again, my only disagreement is with your statement that it is not a significant factor. I just can't see how it isn't a significant factor.

 

[Clayton]

So now our teams face off...what in your opinion is the Cards' weak link(s)?

Pete Kozma existing, Peralta being streaky, Matt Adams against lefties, Matt Holliday's defense, Rosenthal having some control issues, Lance Lynn being a terrible hitter even by pitcher standards, Wainwright can occasionally get beat up if he isnt locating his fastball, Molina and Matt Adams on the bases.

I'll admit that seems like nitpicking

 

[Robotech]

Pete Kozma existing, Peralta being streaky, Matt Adams against lefties, Matt Holliday's defense, Rosenthal having some control issues, Lance Lynn being a terrible hitter even by pitcher standards, Wainwright can occasionally get beat up if he isnt locating his fastball, Molina and Matt Adams on the bases.

I'll admit that seems like nitpicking

It's awesome for us that the NL WS rep will again be either Cards or Giants. This is anyone's series. We certainly have our flaws. Here's to an awesome rivalry

 

[Clayton]

Agree for the most part. Ellis was batted .191 this year but .538 against you guys. And neither stat is much different than last year. You could say the same but opposite fashion with Kershaw. Dee played well this year but it was his first postseason ever, and he led off and played 2B. Dee looked like he was 12. Puig did horribly against you guys last year after doing well against the Braves and in both seasons. He also looked like a frantic kid. Carpenter is a monster right now hitting 3 HR at .375 after hitting 8 HR total this year batting .272. You could point to Gonzalez and Puig as well who did well in the year and failed uncharacteristically in the playoffs.

I guess the experience is knowing your weaknesses and working on them/improving them over the year. Its honestly something we aren't going to be able to figure out from the outside looking in which is why most of the favorites dropped this year.

My theory on Ellis is that he is a catcher and the Cardinals are a team currently run by catchers.

 

[msgkings322]

I guess the experience is knowing your weaknesses and working on them/improving them over the year. Its honestly something we aren't going to be able to figure out from the outside looking in which is why most of the favorites dropped this year.

My theory on Ellis is that he is a catcher and the Cardinals are a team currently run by catchers.

As are the Giants!

 

[Robotech]

Catchers are typically the most knowledgeable players on a team, so it makes sense.

 

[Clayton]

It's awesome for us that the NL WS rep will again be either Cards or Giants. This is anyone's series. We certainly have our flaws. Here's to an awesome rivalry

Yeah, its pretty crazy that these two teams have representing the NL for so long even when players come and go.

For some reason, the thing that worries me the most is your ballpark. A lot of our pitchers play for contact and are good at keeping balls in the park but thats kinda what your place already does.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Agreed. Hahaha, I can give you that it it is a top tier factor. I put it in the top five with experience, chemistry, talent (offense/defense), and coaching/front office. Much of our team has very little experience in general together, let alone in the playoffs together (aka in their roles). I can tell you that Kershaw, Dee, Puig, Uribe, did not look like they were comfortable with their roles. I could also chalk this up with great hitters doing so in the season and in the playoffs, but freezing with RISP.

We had good chemistry this year. We went on good runs all year, and last year, and the team looked comfortable together. They fought so I don't want to skim over that, but they we also very passionate to support each other.

We had good talent except for the bullpen (which was among the worst in baseball), and defense (also among the worst in baseball until the playoffs) except for the playoffs.

Our coaching/front office is not top 5, but I'd say certainly top 10. I think that Donnie's time to for me to grant him "new coach with an relatively newly assembled cast" has now run it's course. Same with the players.

And, we have the best payroll in baseball. We can sign our studs than many lose (Kershaw, Kemp, Jansen, and Gordon). We can sign international players (Ryu and Puig). And, we can go out and buy a great deal (Crawford, Gonzalez, Greinke, Beckett, Uribe, Ramirez, Haren, League, Wilson, etc.). That all cost a lot of money. But you don't just throw all of that together over a couple seasons and expect that a team will go from their last playoff appearance in 2009 to winning the WS, just because you bought it.

We can see that some of the guys bought were booms, and some were busts. But we can afford to. Again, I acknowledged that the teams at the WS champs are mostly high payroll, but only the stable ones. Boston won because of the reasons I described above. Same with the Cards, Giants, Phillies. They won or are winning when they have the same guys playing together and they were good. But mixing it up mostly leads to a crash, Sox, Yanks, Phillies now. But the Giants and Cards are mostly keeping it together. SF didn't get rid of everyone after winning it in 2012, that is why they are back. They had to add some pieces and make it work, but they did; mostly with the same players. They didn't change much from 2010 to 2012. same with the Cards between 2011 and forward. Small changes throughout and brought guys up, and they were incorporated into the scheme.

But both of you guys are also top ten in payroll. The Giants do a good job of going out and getting their pick quite a bit (Peavy, Hudson, Pence) and still also able to pay to keep that group together (Romo, Lincecum, Bum, Posey, Vogelsong, Cain, Sandoval). What happened to SF last year despite the #7 payroll. It takes more than money.

"Money doesn't buy chemistry." -Posey

I'd argue the same with the experience factor, especially as it related to chemistry.

Overall guys, I think we are arguing the same thing but different angles. We both acknowledge that it is significant but among a handful of other significant factors.

 

[calsnowskier]

Agreed. Hahaha, I can give you that it it is a top tier factor. I put it in the top five with experience, chemistry, talent (offense/defense), and coaching/front office. Much of our team has very little experience in general together, let alone in the playoffs together (aka in their roles). I can tell you that Kershaw, Dee, Puig, Uribe, did not look like they were comfortable with their roles. I could also chalk this up with great hitters doing so in the season and in the playoffs, but freezing with RISP.

We had good chemistry this year. We went on good runs all year, and last year, and the team looked comfortable together. They fought so I don't want to skim over that, but they we also very passionate to support each other.

We had good talent except for the bullpen (which was among the worst in baseball), and defense (also among the worst in baseball until the playoffs) except for the playoffs.

Our coaching/front office is not top 5, but I'd say certainly top 10. I think that Donnie's time to for me to grant him "new coach with an relatively newly assembled cast" has now run it's course. Same with the players.

And, we have the best payroll in baseball. We can sign our studs than many lose (Kershaw, Kemp, Jansen, and Gordon). We can sign international players (Ryu and Puig). And, we can go out and buy a great deal (Crawford, Gonzalez, Greinke, Beckett, Uribe, Ramirez, Haren, League, Wilson, etc.). That all cost a lot of money. But you don't just throw all of that together over a couple seasons and expect that a team will go from their last playoff appearance in 2009 to winning the WS, just because you bought it.

We can see that some of the guys bought were booms, and some were busts. But we can afford to. Again, I acknowledged that the teams at the WS champs are mostly high payroll, but only the stable ones. Boston won because of the reasons I described above. Same with the Cards, Giants, Phillies. They won or are winning when they have the same guys playing together and they were good. But mixing it up mostly leads to a crash, Sox, Yanks, Phillies now. But the Giants and Cards are mostly keeping it together. SF didn't get rid of everyone after winning it in 2012, that is why they are back. They had to add some pieces and make it work, but they did; mostly with the same players. They didn't change much from 2010 to 2012. same with the Cards between 2011 and forward. Small changes throughout and brought guys up, and they were incorporated into the scheme.

But both of you guys are also top ten in payroll. The Giants do a good job of going out and getting their pick quite a bit (Peavy, Hudson, Pence) and still also able to pay to keep that group together (Romo, Lincecum, Bum, Posey, Vogelsong, Cain, Sandoval). What happened to SF last year despite the #7 payroll. It takes more than money.

"Money doesn't buy chemistry." -Posey

I'd argue the same with the experience factor, especially as it related to chemistry.

Overall guys, I think we are arguing the same thing but different angles. We both acknowledge that it is significant but among a handful of other significant factors.

How can you list talent and payroll separately? if done right, payroll is only there to increase talent. Of course, there is the case of "paying the piper" to consider (for example, the last 9 years of Poo Holes' 10 year contract) which makes the two not match up.

Also, experience can be sub-sets of talent and chemistry.

Chemistry and coaching are clearly payroll-independent, though. I will grant you that.

I also think that health should be in the list for important factors, which is also payroll-independent.

 

[CatsTopPac]

If I were you guys, I'd be concerned with your hitting. Each has very potent playoff pitching and neither of you saw that while facing the Nats or Dodgers. .236 and .238 respectively is not gong to cut it anymore. StL's bullpen is only slightly better than ours. LA's bullpen ERA this year was 3.81. StL and SF's bullpen ERA are 3.72 and 3.79 respectively. Other than that, I think it will be a great series. Crazy thing is that I think the weaknesses are the same for both, so it will be interesting to see which team's hitting and bullpen step up.

 

[CatsTopPac]

Yes, health is certainly a huge factor, and a crazy wildcard. Great point. I put payroll and talent separate for a few reasons, one you mentioned. The other are the players that are brought up and immensely talented but are not getting paid. Every team has to have those players. Altuve, Donaldson, Gordon, Wacha, Adams. It overlaps, like experience and chemistry, and payroll and experience, but it is not automatic or completely separate. That's my point. Even after assembling the pieces (payroll), they still need to earn their check (talent), play together (chemistry), over a period of time in their known roles and roles on the team (experience), under a competant coach and front office, without injuries. Some teams had it all and don't right now (Yanks, Phils, Sox), others clearly have it (StL and SF), and others are on their way (Dodgers, Angels, Tigers, Orioles, Nats). There are also some wildcards like the Braves, Royals, Angels, I'll even say Boston is one and move them), A's, and Texas.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

If I were you guys, I'd be concerned with your hitting. Each has very potent playoff pitching and neither of you saw that while facing the Nats or Dodgers. .236 and .238 respectively is not gong to cut it anymore. StL's bullpen is only slightly better than ours. LA's bullpen ERA this year was 3.81. StL and SF's bullpen ERA are 3.72 and 3.79 respectively. Other than that, I think it will be a great series. Crazy thing is that I think the weaknesses are the same for both, so it will be interesting to see which team's hitting and bullpen step up.

What? Neither of them saw potent playoff pitching? Are you kidding?

 

[CatsTopPac]

What? Neither of them saw potent playoff pitching? Are you kidding?

I'll retract that. Washington pitched well and LA did in spurts. But I think that StL and SF will be more lock-down. I think we'll see some very low-scoring IPs from the SPs, especially because of the lack of hitting from these two teams. I think whichever one can solve that and/or their bullpen will win.

 

[calsnowskier]

What? Neither of them saw potent playoff pitching? Are you kidding?

Yea. The Nats arguably had the best pitching of all the teams in this year's post-season.

Now I think I would rank the rotations this way...

Giants
Cards





Royals
Orioles


The Giants and Cards are both built almost the exact same way - Pitching, defense, experience (in that order). Offense is a complete after-thought.

The Royals are speed and defense and the O's are offense, offense, offense.