Playoff Odds

[gp956]

Simple Projection using Pythagorean:


Giants 91.7
Padres 91.2
Braves 90.7
Rockie 87.0

 

[tzill]

Simple Projection using Pythagorean:


Giants 91.7
Padres 91.2
Braves 90.7
Rockie 87.0

That's weird. My usual pythag projections are for how many games the team should have won at this point. For fun, I added in a "projected final" to match up against yours.

For the NLW I have:

Giants 95.1
Padres 93.7
Rox 89.4

The pyth formula I'm using is:

PyPct = 1/(1+(RA/RS)^2....obviously yours is different?

 

[gp956]

That's weird. My usual pythag projections are for how many games the team should have won at this point. For fun, I added in a "projected final" to match up against yours.

For the NLW I have:

Giants 95.1
Padres 93.7
Rox 89.4

The pyth formula I'm using is:

PyPct = 1/(1+(RA/RS)^2....obviously yours is different?

That's the same formula I use. Which applied for each team over a 162 game season yields the totals you have presented. But you don't apply it over the full 162 game season. Just apply it to the remaining games, and add the result to the current record to yield the projection.

 

[tzill]

That's the same formula I use. Which applied for each team over a 162 game season yields the totals you have presented. But you don't apply it over the full 162 game season. Just apply it to the remaining games, and add the result to the current record to yield the projection.

Ahhh...I see what you did there.

 

[gp956]

Latest Pecota playoff odds


.............Exp W...Champions...Wild Card
Padres........91.1.....51.3.........16.9
Giants........91.0.....48.1.........17.9
Braves........90.8......0.2.........63.2
Rockies.......87.6......0.6..........2.0

 

[gp956]

Simple Projection using Pythagorean:


Padres 91.6
Giants 91.1
Braves 91.1

 

[gp956]

Latest Pecota playoff odds



.............Exp W...Champions...Wild Card
Giants........91.5.....66.1.........18.2
Padres........90.6.....33.9.........28.5
Braves........90.3......0.1.........52.4
Rockies.......87.0......0.0..........0.7

 

[filosofy29]

Latest Pecota playoff odds



.............Exp W...Champions...Wild Card
Giants........91.5.....66.1.........18.2
Padres........90.6.....33.9.........28.5
Braves........90.3......0.1.........52.4
Rockies.......87.0......0.0..........0.7

Thanks for the update gp. Hopefully Franchez's MRI comes with good news. I unfortunately think that the Braves last 3 games are going to be against the Phillies AAA team, so the Giants need to take care of business at home. I know it won't be a cakewalk, but the Giants really need to take 2 out of 3 here. I haven't been this nervous/happy in a long time.

 

[gp956]

Thanks for the update gp. Hopefully Franchez's MRI comes with good news. I unfortunately think that the Braves last 3 games are going to be against the Phillies AAA team, so the Giants need to take care of business at home. I know it won't be a cakewalk, but the Giants really need to take 2 out of 3 here. I haven't been this nervous/happy in a long time.

I want to see the Giants coming out fired up for game one of this series. You know how they've been flat after days off.... can't afford that now. If they come out and blow out the Dbacks, i like their chances of a nice run through the playoffs. Come out flat, they'll probably still make the playoffs but I won't like their chances to make it past the first round.

 

[tzill]

I'd think the lads will be pretty pumped for the final homestand and full houses all week long. I don't think being flat will be a problem. I'm going Tues Fri and Sun. I'd go to all six but then I'd have to file for divorce.

They could panic though. If they're weak minded.

 

[calsnowskier]

I'd think the lads will be pretty pumped for the final homestand and full houses all week long. I don't think being flat will be a problem. I'm going Tues Fri and Sun. I'd go to all six but then I'd have to file for divorce.

They could panic though. If they're weak minded.

If the lady is not letting you go the the last games of the season after the last 7 years of pain we have been subjected to, maybe you SHOULD file for divorce...

 

[SFGRTB]

I am so stoked right now!

 

[tzill]

If the lady is not letting you go the the last games of the season after the last 7 years of pain we have been subjected to, maybe you SHOULD file for divorce...

Easy, killer. Easy.

As is happens, I also get to go to Wednesday's game. That's 4 of 6.

I'm thinking Wife Of The Year.

 

[gp956]

Easy, killer. Easy.

As is happens, I also get to go to Wednesday's game. That's 4 of 6.

I'm thinking Wife Of The Year.

Don't you have some crazy bad record of wins for games attended? You could single-handedly keep the Giants out of the playoffs.

 

[tzill]

Don't you have some crazy bad record of wins for games attended? You could single-handedly keep the Giants out of the playoffs.

I've never added it up. My gut is that my record is probably a bit better than the season record, as I tend to avoid the yard when they play like shit over a good number of games. I tend to hit one game a series. Let me look it up now:

Home 16-7
Road 1-2 (Timmy shuts out Doyers on Saturday, Fuckingeckstein HR on Monday, Cain gets Cained in Oakland 1-0)

So my home pct is .695 as opposed to the team's .600
My road pct is .333 as opposed to the team's .531

Clearly, I should be attending more games at AT&T and less on the road. I will be in a quandry if the Gs make the World Serious against the Twinkies, as I've got a ton of friends who have promised me tickets at Target in exchange for tickets at AT&T.

The Giants should expect to win 3 of the 4 games I hit this week (Tu-We-F-Su)

 

[tzill]

Don't you have some crazy bad record of wins for games attended? You could single-handedly keep the Giants out of the playoffs.

I think what you are recalling is an off-the-cuff comment I made after I watched them lose a home game that "their home record is 35-20, and I didn't even realize I'd BEEN to 20 home games..."

You HF.....

 

[gp956]

I think what you are recalling is an off-the-cuff comment I made after I watched them lose a home game that "their home record is 35-20, and I didn't even realize I'd BEEN to 20 home games..."

You HF.....

I think what I am remembering is you attended both one-hit loses this year. That's some extreme bad luck.

 

[gp956]

Latest Pecota playoff odds




.............Exp W...Champions...Wild Card
Giants........92.2.....91.5.........5.0
Braves........91.0......0.0........83.9
Padres........89.8......8.5........11.1