Playoff Odds

[tzill]

I don't care if we have the best record, I just want to make sure we get the Reds in the NLDS. I dont want anything to do with Phi or Atl until the NLCS.

Yeah, about that best record:

There are two schedule scenarios for the division series in the NL this year (because it is the league with home-field in the World Series). One series goes Weds-Fri-Sun-Mon-Weds. The other goes Thurs-Fri-Sun-Mon-Weds. That means one series has an extra off day before it starts, and the other has the extra off day between Games 1 and 2. The significance to that, of course, is that in the series with the extra off day in the middle, you can use three starters, all on normal rest. In the other one, if you want to use three starters, two of them would have to go on three days rest. (For the record, Barry Zito is the only Giants starter who has ever started on three days rest.) Most teams use four starters in that scenario, although we’ve had a rash of sweeps in the division series lately, so we haven’t seen many Games 4 and 5.

The team with the best record in the NL will get to pick which series it takes.

 

[gp956]

I just want them to make the playoffs.

I'm in this line.

 

[gp956]

Yeah, about that best record:

There are two schedule scenarios for the division series in the NL this year (because it is the league with home-field in the World Series). One series goes Weds-Fri-Sun-Mon-Weds. The other goes Thurs-Fri-Sun-Mon-Weds. That means one series has an extra off day before it starts, and the other has the extra off day between Games 1 and 2. The significance to that, of course, is that in the series with the extra off day in the middle, you can use three starters, all on normal rest. In the other one, if you want to use three starters, two of them would have to go on three days rest. (For the record, Barry Zito is the only Giants starter who has ever started on three days rest.) Most teams use four starters in that scenario, although we’ve had a rash of sweeps in the division series lately, so we haven’t seen many Games 4 and 5.

The team with the best record in the NL will get to pick which series it takes.

Good knowledge.

 

[calsnowskier]

Yeah, about that best record:

There are two schedule scenarios for the division series in the NL this year (because it is the league with home-field in the World Series). One series goes Weds-Fri-Sun-Mon-Weds. The other goes Thurs-Fri-Sun-Mon-Weds. That means one series has an extra off day before it starts, and the other has the extra off day between Games 1 and 2. The significance to that, of course, is that in the series with the extra off day in the middle, you can use three starters, all on normal rest. In the other one, if you want to use three starters, two of them would have to go on three days rest. (For the record, Barry Zito is the only Giants starter who has ever started on three days rest.) Most teams use four starters in that scenario, although we’ve had a rash of sweeps in the division series lately, so we haven’t seen many Games 4 and 5.

The team with the best record in the NL will get to pick which series it takes.

tz,

I wish you would stop gossiping and contribute some actual baseball insight every once in a while...





Great post!!

 

[gp956]

Latest Pecota playoff odds


.............Exp W...Champions...Wild Card
Giants........90.5.....51.5.........4.5
Padres........89.5.....25.3.........4.9
Rockies.......89.3.....23.2.........4.8

 

[gp956]

So over the last 10 days or so, the Giants' chances of winning the division dropped a few points, as did the Padres chances, with all of those losses gained by the Rox (obviously). Plus, the Giants wild card chances are now pretty slim, so that feeling that tzill mentioned that the Giants lost ground this week has some basis in reality.

Just a one game swing is all it took, i.e. not winning two of three from the Brewers.

 

[tzill]

So over the last 10 days or so, the Giants' chances of winning the division dropped a few points, as did the Padres chances, with all of those losses gained by the Rox (obviously). Plus, the Giants wild card chances are now pretty slim, so that feeling that tzill mentioned that the Giants lost ground this week has some basis in reality.

Just a one game swing is all it took, i.e. not winning two of three from the Brewers.

Exactly. A playoff team should be taking 2/3 at home against a sub .500 team. C'est le baisbol.

 

[msgkings322]

C'est le baisbol sans une joueur superieur comme Torres.

I hate to harp on it but I feel pretty smart on this one. Might be overdoing it.

 

[Heathbar012]

C'est le baisbol sans une joueur superieur comme Torres.

I hate to harp on it but I feel pretty smart on this one. Might be overdoing it.

Definitely a good call. My dad and I were discussing the impact of the Torres loss this weekend. gp is right that it isn't the only factor (as I'm sure you know), but it is certainly easier to score runs when there is a consistent and speedy lead-off man at the top of the line-up. That's even without discussing the defensive impact. I was very apprehensive about Zito pitching with an outfield of Burrell, Ross and Guillen. Luckily, Zeets was on for all but one pitch, and Ross didn't let his "home run" get in his head in the field. Torres definitely has better range than him out there. But yeah, you're harping on it too much. .

 

[gp956]

Definitely a good call. My dad and I were discussing the impact of the Torres loss this weekend. gp is right that it isn't the only factor (as I'm sure you know), but it is certainly easier to score runs when there is a consistent and speedy lead-off man at the top of the line-up. That's even without discussing the defensive impact. I was very apprehensive about Zito pitching with an outfield of Burrell, Ross and Guillen. Luckily, Zeets was on for all but one pitch, and Ross didn't let his "home run" get in his head in the field. Torres definitely has better range than him out there. But yeah, you're harping on it too much. .

I think we can all agree to that.

 

[gp956]

Giants slash line in September:

.218/.276/.374

I'll repeat - this is more than just Torres being out. But there is also no doubt a walk/single and a stolen base here or there could have meant a one win difference.

 

[Heathbar012]

Giants slash line in September:

.218/.276/.374

I'll repeat - this is more than just Torres being out. But there is also no doubt a walk/single and a stolen base here or there could have meant a one win difference.

Definitely. And it can never be just one person in a team sport that controls the outcome of a game. Modern-day NBA Basketball might be an exception, but certainly not baseball, football, hockey, soccer, etc.

Of course, there are seemingly super-human feats where players put teams on their shoulders, but others have to play well to even allow a great player to take over. The bottom line is if Torres comes back healthy, we can all agree that the Giants instantly become a better team. The majority of his slump has to be attributed to discomfort from the appendix, and at least some of the Giants' offensive woes has to be attributed to the absence of a healthy Torres.

 

[msgkings322]

Giants slash line in September:

.218/.276/.374

I'll repeat - this is more than just Torres being out. But there is also no doubt a walk/single and a stolen base here or there could have meant a one win difference.

Agreed, but I am just going with a feeling that Torres was the 'spark plug', and his absence has affected the whole lineup. I have no stats to back that up, just yakking.

 

[gp956]

Definitely. And it can never be just one person in a team sport that controls the outcome of a game. Modern-day NBA Basketball might be an exception, but certainly not baseball, football, hockey, soccer, etc.

Of course, there are seemingly super-human feats where players put teams on their shoulders, but others have to play well to even allow a great player to take over. The bottom line is if Torres comes back healthy, we can all agree that the Giants instantly become a better team. The majority of his slump has to be attributed to discomfort from the appendix, and at least some of the Giants' offensive woes has to be attributed to the absence of a healthy Torres.

+1

Although I wonder if the appendix preferentially impacted Torres from the right side.

 

[gp956]

Agreed, but I am just going with a feeling that Torres was the 'spark plug', and his absence has affected the whole lineup. I have no stats to back that up, just yakking.

That's where stats can't tell the story. And being in the dugout feeling the pulse of the team, as it were, is necessary. That's why, even though I love to do the stat thing, i know they can never tell the whole story.

 

[msgkings322]

That's where stats can't tell the story. And being in the dugout feeling the pulse of the team, as it were, is necessary. That's why, even though I love to do the stat thing, i know they can never tell the whole story.

+1

And one of the reasons I'm beating this topic to death. I'll give it a rest I think. But I expect some tough losses to come while we wait for his return, due to weak scoring days. And sadly 1 or 2 may be in Colorado. I feel sure (just an opinion, no stats) that we'd have taken 2 from MIL with him around.

I am under the impression he is due to come back for the last week homestand. Anyone know better?

 

[tzill]

Definitely a good call. My dad and I were discussing the impact of the Torres loss this weekend. gp is right that it isn't the only factor (as I'm sure you know), but it is certainly easier to score runs when there is a consistent and speedy lead-off man at the top of the line-up. That's even without discussing the defensive impact. I was very apprehensive about Zito pitching with an outfield of Burrell, Ross and Guillen. Luckily, Zeets was on for all but one pitch, and Ross didn't let his "home run" get in his head in the field. Torres definitely has better range than him out there. But yeah, you're harping on it too much. .

Also, that "one pitch" was a pretty good changeup that the Hebrew Hammer just went and got.

Don't fuck with the Hebrew Hammer. I am disappointed he played on Friday night.

 

[gp956]

Also, that "one pitch" was a pretty good changeup that the Hebrew Hammer just went and got.

Don't fuck with the Hebrew Hammer. I am disappointed he played on Friday night.

Yes. I think i made a note of that in the game discussion thread. Although, I didn't recognize it as a CH at the time.

 

[gp956]

Latest Pecota playoff odds


.............Exp W...Champions...Wild Card
Giants........91.0.....57.5.........8.3
Padres........90.0.....30.6.........10.7
Rockies.......88.8.....11.9.........6.5

 

[filosofy29]

Latest Pecota playoff odds


.............Exp W...Champions...Wild Card
Giants........91.0.....57.5.........8.3
Padres........90.0.....30.6.........10.7
Rockies.......88.8.....11.9.........6.5

I wonder if the two fights in the clubhouse last week will dampen the odds?