Phil Steele's Week 1 CFB's Best Bets - ESPN Insider

[iowajerms]

**** I will do 4 games a post. Post 1/3

College football - Phil Steele's Week 1 best bets

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Last year, my picks went 111-39 straight-up for a solid 74 percent during the regular season, but my against-the-spread (ATS) mark was only 50 percent (74-74-1)

Football is finally back, and there are some interesting games on this week's card, including lot of ranked teams in action. There are 39 games where two FBS teams face off, so here are 10 of my selections on some of this week's biggest games.

Note: All times Eastern. Lines courtesy of Westgate SuperBook as of Thursday at 1 p.m.

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Thursday

South Carolina Gamecocks (-2) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
Thursday at 6:00 p.m., ESPN

Despite this game being in North Carolina, the schools are about equidistant from the stadium, so the crowd should be split. Steve Spurrier is 9-1 in opening games at South Carolina, but that one loss happened last year. In that game, the Gamecocks were big favorites -- and favored to win the SEC East -- but were embarrassed by Texas A&M at home 52-28.

Both teams were 6-6 in the regular season last year, but they were not that close talent-wise. South Carolina blew three fourth-quarter double-digit leads and could easily have been a 10-3 team. North Carolina was blown out in most of their losses, losing five games by 15 or more points (losing by an average of 20.3 points).

South Carolina played the tougher schedule and was plus-10 yards per game while North Carolina was actually minus-68 yards per game. UNC has 17 returning starters (South Carolina has 12), but the Gamecocks are the stronger team with a much better defense. I think the SEC school opens with the win here.

ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: South Carolina 34, North Carolina 27


Oklahoma State Cowboys (-23) at Central Michigan Chippewas
Thursday at 7:00 p.m., ESPNU

These two teams seem to have almost nothing in common. Last year, Central Michigan, the fourth-most-experienced FBS team, won seven games in the regular season for the first time since 2009. Oklahoma State had the least-experienced team in the country and, after averaging 10 wins per season the last five years, only managed to finish 7-6 after a bowl win, and to accomplish even that, it needed Oklahoma to accept a penalty on a punt return and then for Tyreek Hill to return a punt for a touchdown and force OT, eventually allowing Oklahoma State to win that game.

Central Michigan has just nine returning starters, and Oklahoma State has 16, including QB Mason Rudolph, who took off his red shirt and led the Pokes to wins over Oklahoma and Washington (bowl). Last year, Central Michigan lost at home to a 3-9 Syracuse team by a 40-3 margin, and here they face an unranked and under-the-radar OK State team.

Mike Gundy likes to score points, and after averaging 44.4 points per game from 2010-2013, the Cowboys dipped to 27.6 in 2014. He will be anxious to get the team off to a solid start here, while Central Michigan gets used to a new head coach, as former head coach Dan Enos jumped off that sinking ship to become an offensive coordinator at Arkansas.

ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 48, Central Michigan 17

Michigan Wolverines at Utah Utes (-5.5)

Thursday at 8:30 p.m., Fox Sports 1

Jim Harbaugh makes his debut for Michigan. He inherits a top-10 defense, and that unit adds in DB Jabrill Peppers, who was injured early in '14 and redshirted. Utah has my No. 18-rated defense and the edge on offense. Michigan did have more first downs (19-13) in this matchup last year, but Utah won in the Big House 26-10 as an underdog. Utah won five of its games last year by six points or less and does have the altitude advantage, plus will have the MUSS (student section) at full throttle for this rare marquee nonconference opponent. Utah is the stronger team and they have my No. 1-rated special teams, while Michigan's special teams unit is middle-of-the-pack. Look for Harbaugh to lose in his debut.

ATS pick: Utah
Score: Utah 21, Michigan 13

Saturday

No. 15 Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Texas A&M Aggies (-3.5)
Saturday at 7:00 p.m., ESPN

This will be a much-discussed game throughout the year, as it's Pac-12 vs. SEC, and those two conferences are in the debate for best conference. The game is in Houston, so A&M will have a crowd edge.

Both teams should have a much-improved defense, with A&M adding defensive coordinator John Chavis. He has eight returning starters, including DE Myles Garrett, who had 11.5 sacks as a true frosh. Their defense allowed 451 yards per game in 2014. Arizona State only had two returning starters on defense last year and allowed 417 YPG. This year, they have a much more veteran unit, with nine starters back and some solid transfers brought in.

Both teams have quarterbacks that did well when called upon last year and will have explosive offenses. Texas A&M does have the special teams edge. Todd Graham says it is his best team yet, and they finished No. 12 in the polls last year, getting as high as No. 7. Texas A&M finished the year unranked after going 3-5 in its last eight games. I think the Sun Devils are the stronger overall team and pull the upset.

ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Arizona State 34, Texas A&M 31

 

[iowajerms]

Post 2/3


No. 20 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 3 Alabama Crimson Tide (-12)

Saturday at 8:00 p.m., ABC

This figures to be a game that features two strong defenses, as I rate Alabama my No. 1 defense and Wisconsin No. 9. Alabama doesn't have a clear-cut starter at quarterback, but that hasn't hurt them in years past. The Badgers have been banged up on the offensive line in August and at least at the start of the year may not have their normal big, powerful and dominating line. That is not good when going up against my No. 1-rated defensive line.

Alabama matches up well against offenses that do not employ the wide-open spread. Wisconsin beat SEC member Auburn in its bowl last season and could easily have beaten fellow SEC member LSU (led in fourth quarter) last year, but a hungry Alabama team will provide a tougher test. The fact that Alabama's last game was a loss to a Big Ten school will give them extra motivation here.

ATS pick: Alabama
Score: Alabama 28, Wisconsin 10


Texas Longhorns at No. 11 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-9.5)
Saturday at 7:30 p.m., NBC

These two teams used to be among the premier teams in college football every year. Last year, neither finished the season ranked, with Texas going 6-7 and Notre Dame 8-5. The Fighting Irish not only have nine starters back on defense, they also get back LB Joe Schmidt, who was injured midyear, and add in CB KeiVarae Russell, who sat out 2014 and is one of the top cornerbacks in the country.

The last time I watched Texas, the Longhorns had just 59 yards in their bowl game versus Arkansas. I look for this game to follow the pattern from Texas games last year. Texas trailed BYU 6-0 at half, led UCLA 10-3 at half, trailed Baylor 7-0 (despite earning 202 yards versus Baylor's 100 yards) at the half and trailed Oklahoma 17-13 (despite racking up 238 yards to Oklahoma's 19) at halftime. They wore down in the second halves and lost those four games by an average of 16 points per game. Texas has just 12 returning starters and the Irish have 16. Texas also lost four defensive players to the NFL draft.

This Notre Dame squad could be stronger than the 2012 version that made it to the national title game. I'm calling for them to get off to a solid start at home.

ATS pick: Notre Dame
Score: Notre Dame 30, Texas 17


No. 6 Auburn Tigers (-10.5) vs Louisville Cardinals
Saturday at 3:30 p.m., CBS

Both teams are coming off disappointing bowl losses. Auburn finished 8-5 and No. 22 in the AP poll, and Louisville was 9-4 and No. 24. Auburn has 12 returning starters, while the Cardinals return just nine. Louisville's bowl loss was a 37-14 drubbing by SEC member Georgia. Auburn is very excited to have Will Muschamp as the defensive coordinator, and he has eight returning starters and figures to greatly improve that unit. While Louisville lost six starters to the NFL draft (10 players drafted, most in college football), its defense could be strong as the Cardinals add in some super transfers, including two Georgia defensive backs and the 2012 Big 12 Defensive Player of the year Devonte Fields from TCU. I think Louisville makes a game of this and keeps it within the number.

ATS pick: Louisville
Score: Auburn 30, Louisville 24


Bowling Green Falcons at No. 25 Tennessee Volunteers (-21.5)
Saturday at 7:00 p.m., SECN

In its last game versus an SEC team, Bowling Green only lost to Florida 27-14, but it should be much improved this season. Tennessee has a huge home game on deck versus Oklahoma. The Vols should also be an improved team this year, with 18 returning starters. Last year, Bowling Green's QB Matt Johnson was injured in the opener and missed the rest of the season. A lot of MAC coaches I talked to this summer brought him up, and he should thrive in coach Dino Babers' offense. The Falcons were stronger than their final record, as they clinched the MAC East with two games to go and rested some players, which caused them to drop their final two games. Even if the Vols get up to a comfy lead, Bowling Green has the ability to score on every possession, and Tennessee players may start looking ahead to Oklahoma, so this should be closer than the experts think.

ATS pick: Bowling Green
Score: Tennessee 42, Bowling Green 28

 

[iowajerms]

Post 3/3


Arkansas State Red Wolves at No. 8 USC Trojans (-27)

Saturday at 11:00 p.m., PAC12

USC head coach Steve Sarkisian has some controversy swirling around him, and there's no better way to get folks to stop talking than to start the year with a big win. USC is up to over 75 scholarship players, and while the Trojans have a lot of freshmen, they are very talented freshmen that will be looking to gain experience. They are dynamic playmakers who can actually extend the margin in the fourth quarter. Arkansas State is my pick to tie for first in the Sun Belt this year, and the Red Wolves do have 15 returning starters. The fact they have been to four straight bowls makes USC well prepared. Arkansas State also has a home game vs. Missouri on deck and may want to stay healthy for that more winnable game. I like the Trojans to get their season off to a great start.

ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 49, Arkansas State 13

Monday

No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes (-14) at Virginia Tech Hokies
Monday at 8:00 p.m., ESPN

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This is the Monday night game, and Blacksburg will be electric as the team enters to "Enter Sandman." I thought Virginia Tech would have one of Bud Foster's best defenses yet, with an elite defensive line and cornerbacks. Talking to coach Foster only reinforced my opinion. Ohio State does have some advantages in that it has a large offensive line and Virginia Tech has a smaller, speedier defense. Also, last year Foster's blitzing schemes caught the Buckeyes flatfooted, thanks to their inexperienced offensive line and a quarterback in his second start. Those two units were much better the rest of the year as a result of that game, and the experience will help them this year. I look for Virginia Tech to have an improved offense this year, and they are my pick to win the ACC Coastal. Ohio State also is missing five players for this one, including WR Noah Brown and DE Joey Bosa. I forecast a competitive game that is closer than Las Vegas thinks.

ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Ohio State 30, Virginia Tech 20

 

[Jekku]

ASU over A&M is an upset?

 

[The Derski]

ASU over A&M is an upset?

Technically A&M is favored even though ASU is ranked higher.

 

[Red_Alert]

ASU over A&M is an upset?

Yeah. More like a coin flip.