Phil Kessel will be third in scoring this season

[DragonfromTO]

Fair point. Most of us here actually watch a lot of hockey though and don't have to rely on stats to guide our opinions.

It is not humanly possible to watch so much hockey that you no longer stand to learn anything by looking at data.

 

[DragonfromTO]

So some advanced stats you've seen are the ultimate authority of truth and standard stats are complete bogus? The advanced stats I've seen are nothing more than trend indicators as well.

Does Kessel pass the eye test? Meh. From what I've seen, I don't think he's as bad as -34 indicates, but he certainly leaves a lot to be desired, especially since I'm used to watching guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg control all three zones.

You've watched Kessel play a lot more than I have and you're usually fairly objective about such things. Does Kessel pass your eye test in the defensive zone? Do you think he could be a hindrance defensively on a team that already has struggled in their own zone the past couple years?

Kessel wasn't playing Datsyuk and Zetterberg's spot though. Those were Bozak's responsibilities.

I have said on here many times that while I don't think that Kessel is a particularly impressive defensive player, I think that he was the best defensive player on that line.

 

[RP-29]

It is not humanly possible to watch so much hockey that you no longer stand to learn anything by looking at data.

I said people who watch games don't have to rely on stats to form opinions; I did not imply we couldn't learn from statistical analysis. In fact, I suggested the opposite when I recommended cross-referencing perception with statistics.

I tend to judge by the eyeball test first, then check the stats to see how they align. That's why I've always been irritated when people say "Sidney Crosby is the best player in the world" as if it's absolute fact. The eyeball test has consistently told me Crosby is barely above average in the defensive and neutral zones when the puck is not on his stick and his leadership leaves a lot to be desired. After having watch Datsyuk dominate all three zones with and without the puck for over a decade, it seems like a prime example of statistical blindness to call Crosby "the best". "One of the best" is fair.

Kessel wasn't playing Datsyuk and Zetterberg's spot though. Those were Bozak's responsibilities.

Both Datsyuk and Zetterberg have spent plenty of time at wing and both were equally defensively proficient at both center and wing - at least judging by the eyeball test. Maybe someone conjured some advanced metrics that indicates a slight difference, but even then a lot of factors are in play and it doesn't necessarily make it fact one way or the other.

I have said on here many times that while I don't think that Kessel is a particularly impressive defensive player, I think that he was the best defensive player on that line.

Fair assessment. It will definitely be interesting to see how he does in Pittsburgh.

 

[Dacks]

Data can be interpreted in a biased fashion, but in nature is not biased (unless it's collected in biased fashion). But the "eyeball test", as you refer to it, is inherently biased, because everything we see is filtered by our own biased brains. Our eyes can see the same play on the ice, but our brains will see two very different things.

The strangest criticism I've heard of Sid is the leadership one. If your eyeball test says Sid is a bad leader, but almost everyone who's played with him says the opposite, and the guy who coached your Wings until this season strongly says the opposite, maybe you should consider that your eyeball test is flawed?

 

[DragonfromTO]

I said people who watch games don't have to rely on stats to form opinions; I did not imply we couldn't learn from statistical analysis. In fact, I suggested the opposite when I recommended cross-referencing perception with statistics.

I tend to judge by the eyeball test first, then check the stats to see how they align. That's why I've always been irritated when people say "Sidney Crosby is the best player in the world" as if it's absolute fact. The eyeball test has consistently told me Crosby is barely above average in the defensive and neutral zones when the puck is not on his stick and his leadership leaves a lot to be desired. After having watch Datsyuk dominate all three zones with and without the puck for over a decade, it seems like a prime example of statistical blindness to call Crosby "the best". "One of the best" is fair.



Both Datsyuk and Zetterberg have spent plenty of time at wing and both were equally defensively proficient at both center and wing - at least judging by the eyeball test. Maybe someone conjured some advanced metrics that indicates a slight difference, but even then a lot of factors are in play and it doesn't necessarily make it fact one way or the other.



Fair assessment. It will definitely be interesting to see how he does in Pittsburgh.

People don't have to look at stats in order to have opinions, regardless of whether or not they watch hockey. I don't see why any distinction has to be made there.

But if either subset wants to have informed opinions they should at least be looking at some data.

I would also add that you may not even be aware of whether or not/how those plus/minus stats are affecting your opinion and general narratives about the player. No one ever talked about how great a defensive player Jari Kurri was because the narrative was that he was Gretzky's trigger man on the PP. Ask someone today about what they remember about him and that's almost certainly what you'll hear. I've even had people who have watched a ton of hockey and are big fans argue with me at the bar that Kurri was all fancypants offense and no defense. But nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

So some advanced stats you've seen are the ultimate authority of truth and standard stats are complete bogus? The advanced stats I've seen are nothing more than trend indicators as well.

Does Kessel pass the eye test? Meh. From what I've seen, I don't think he's as bad as -34 indicates, but he certainly leaves a lot to be desired, especially since I'm used to watching guys like Datsyuk and Zetterberg control all three zones.

You've watched Kessel play a lot more than I have and you're usually fairly objective about such things. Does Kessel pass your eye test in the defensive zone? Do you think he could be a hindrance defensively on a team that already has struggled in their own zone the past couple years?

The thing is, +/- has been discarded as a useful stat by basically anybody who needs to use stats. When was the last time you heard a writer worth a damn use it to make any determination of a player's value? Like I said, it's as useful as team points total in examining a player's performance.

Put Zetterberg or Dats with the line mates Phil has had the past 6 years and I'm guessing they would struggle hard to post a +. I would be very, very surprised if Kessel were a minus player in Pittsburgh.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

People don't have to look at stats in order to have opinions, regardless of whether or not they watch hockey. I don't see why any distinction has to be made there.

But if either subset wants to have informed opinions they should at least be looking at some data.

I would also add that you may not even be aware of whether or not/how those plus/minus stats are affecting your opinion and general narratives about the player. No one ever talked about how great a defensive player Jari Kurri was because the narrative was that he was Gretzky's trigger man on the PP. Ask someone today about what they remember about him and that's almost certainly what you'll hear. I've even had people who have watched a ton of hockey and are big fans argue with me at the bar that Kurri was all fancypants offense and no defense. But nothing could be further from the truth.

Speaking of Gretzky, he was a combined -86 in his final 8 seasons. He had 715 points during that span.

Plus minus is literally the most useless stat in sports, followed closely by pitcher wins.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Speaking of Gretzky, he was a combined -86 in his final 8 seasons. He had 715 points during that span.

Plus minus is literally the most useless stat in sports, followed closely by pitcher wins.

Look at how the narrative on Bozak has changed. Last offseason we were able to read him being described as a complete, defensively responsible 200 foot centre. Now that narrative has largely (correctly) disappeared, and nothing about him has changed much except for his +/-.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Look at how the narrative on Bozak has changed. Last offseason we were able to read him being described as a complete, defensively responsible 200 foot centre. Now that narrative has largely (correctly) disappeared, and nothing about him has changed much except for his +/-.

The thing with Bozak is you don't even need the stats to back it up, the eye-test always told the truth with him. But his defenders were always as staunch as Kessel's critics. Which is kind of scary, if you think about it.

 

[Tomas Tatar]

Had to laugh at Franzen playing 55 games.

Eh, it's certainly possible. Not sure why it's laughable.

 

[pixburgher66]

I said people who watch games don't have to rely on stats to form opinions; I did not imply we couldn't learn from statistical analysis. In fact, I suggested the opposite when I recommended cross-referencing perception with statistics.

I tend to judge by the eyeball test first, then check the stats to see how they align. That's why I've always been irritated when people say "Sidney Crosby is the best player in the world" as if it's absolute fact. The eyeball test has consistently told me Crosby is barely above average in the defensive and neutral zones when the puck is not on his stick and his leadership leaves a lot to be desired. After having watch Datsyuk dominate all three zones with and without the puck for over a decade, it seems like a prime example of statistical blindness to call Crosby "the best". "One of the best" is fair.



Both Datsyuk and Zetterberg have spent plenty of time at wing and both were equally defensively proficient at both center and wing - at least judging by the eyeball test. Maybe someone conjured some advanced metrics that indicates a slight difference, but even then a lot of factors are in play and it doesn't necessarily make it fact one way or the other.



Fair assessment. It will definitely be interesting to see how he does in Pittsburgh.

I'm super confused by your logic here...you state that you value the eyeball test more than stats alone (fair...although I don't think either should happen with out the other), but then state that stats support Crosby not being the best...? He's not the best defensive forward out there, not sure anyone says that...and the. You bring up leadership and I realize this conversation is probably useless. There is literally no way to quantify that, and basically zero way to even pretend we know anything about such a thing. Feel free to bring up whining, because every captain does it, and every hockey player loses their cool. It's just...it's so irrelevant.

 

[ritari330]

Yes, TJ Oshie (73rd) will outscore Brandon Saad (78) and Nick Foligno (84).

Who are the projected linemates of the guy he says will finish 11th.

I mean Oshie is projected to be linemates with the guys who will finish 2nd and 12th, so...

 

[RP-29]

I'm super confused by your logic here...you state that you value the eyeball test more than stats alone (fair...although I don't think either should happen with out the other),

Actually, I didn't say value, I said judge. I develop my impressions of a player by watching him play first rather than having stats guide my impressions.

but then state that stats support Crosby not being the best...?

Hm. Perhaps I didn't articulate my opinion. My intention was to cite the opposite... My opinion is that Crosby has had offensive stats to back up being "the best" but the eyeball test first tells me otherwise.

He's not the best defensive forward out there, not sure anyone says that...and the. You bring up leadership and I realize this conversation is probably useless. There is literally no way to quantify that, and basically zero way to even pretend we know anything about such a thing. Feel free to bring up whining, because every captain does it, and every hockey player loses their cool. It's just...it's so irrelevant.

With Crosby's leadership, it's not so much about whining or pleading his case to the refs, because that's the job of a captain. It's about the visible frustration he exudes when things don't go his way. He's the captain of the team and the rest of the players follow his lead. When Crosby gets frustrated, the whole team tends to lose focus.

After having been spoiled watching Yzerman, Lidstrom and Zetterberg captain my team in succession - a very high benchmark - it can be tough watching emotionally charged and volatile players like Ovechkin and Crosby and captain good teams into icebergs like the Titanic.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Eh, it's certainly possible. Not sure why it's laughable.

Because he hasn't played that many games since 2012?

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Actually, I didn't say value, I said judge. I develop my impressions of a player by watching him play first rather than having stats guide my impressions.



Hm. Perhaps I didn't articulate my opinion. My intention was to cite the opposite... My opinion is that Crosby has had offensive stats to back up being "the best" but the eyeball test first tells me otherwise.



With Crosby's leadership, it's not so much about whining or pleading his case to the refs, because that's the job of a captain. It's about the visible frustration he exudes when things don't go his way. He's the captain of the team and the rest of the players follow his lead. When Crosby gets frustrated, the whole team tends to lose focus.

After having been spoiled watching Yzerman, Lidstrom and Zetterberg captain my team in succession - a very high benchmark - it can be tough watching emotionally charged and volatile players like Ovechkin and Crosby and captain good teams into icebergs like the Titanic.

Exactly how does the eyeball test not back up Crosby's offensive talents?

And how can you even utter the sentence "captain good teams into icebergs"? Are you honestly of the opinion that teams like the Pens and Caps have failed to capture the success of teams like the Kings and Hawks because their superstar captains let them down? Have you ever compared the surrounding cast of the Kings and Hawks with that of the Caps and Pens?

It's like saying the Isles haven't had any success lately because Tavares is a weak leader. Hell, Datsyuk must be one shit captain since his team has only gotten past the first round once in the past 4 years.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

I mean Oshie is projected to be linemates with the guys who will finish 2nd and 12th, so...

Yeah that one didn't strike me as crazy. The point total he's projecting for Oshie is actually lower than his point total last season and his linemates (Backes and Steen) weren't nearly as prolific offensively as OV and Backstrom are.

 

[RP-29]

Exactly how does the eyeball test not back up Crosby's offensive talents?

Again, no, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying Crosby's offensive talent is off the chart and he has the stats to back that up, but the eyeball test says he's average in the neutral and defensive zones when the puck is not on his stick.

And how can you even utter the sentence "captain good teams into icebergs"? Are you honestly of the opinion that teams like the Pens and Caps have failed to capture the success of teams like the Kings and Hawks because their superstar captains let them down? Have you ever compared the surrounding cast of the Kings and Hawks with that of the Caps and Pens?

You're right, the Kings and Hawks are much better defensively. Both forwards and defensemen. And they have multiple Cups. Which is why I value defensive play just as highly as offensive play. And there isn't much for standard statistics on the quantification of defensive play, so it's not easy to argue against Crosby and Ovechkin being "the best".

And I'm not saying it's all Crosby's fault, but when Crosby loses his cool in a playoff series and starts taking cheap shots and barking at players, you know the Pens aren't going to see the next round. He's the captain of the ship and when the ship starts swerving it will crash.

It's like saying the Isles haven't had any success lately because Tavares is a weak leader. Hell, Datsyuk must be one shit captain since his team has only gotten past the first round once in the past 4 years.

Datsyuk is not captain, Zetterberg is and has been since Lidstrom left. And a key reason the Wings have not gotten past the first round is that Lidstrom left... and Rafalski... and Stuart... all about the same time. Tough to recover from losing 3 of your top 4 defenseman in short order, including a first ballot Hall of Famer.

 

[Bloody Brian Burke]

Again, no, that's not what I'm saying. I'm saying Crosby's offensive talent is off the chart and he has the stats to back that up, but the eyeball test says he's average in the neutral and defensive zones when the puck is not on his stick.

My opinion is that Crosby has had offensive stats to back up being "the best" but the eyeball test first tells me otherwise.

?

Datsyuk is not captain, Zetterberg is and has been since Lidstrom left. And a key reason the Wings have not gotten past the first round is that Lidstrom left... and Rafalski... and Stuart... all about the same time. Tough to recover from losing 3 of your top 4 defenseman in short order, including a first ballot Hall of Famer.

Not like the Wings had years to anticipate 42 year old Lidstrom leaving, kinda like the Pens haven't had 6 years since they won the Cup to give Crosby good players to skate with...[/QUOTE]

 

[RP-29]

?

Okay, poorly written and misleading. Now you know what I mean.

Not like the Wings had years to anticipate 42 year old Lidstrom leaving, kinda like the Pens haven't had 6 years since they won the Cup to give Crosby good players to skate with...

Ken Holland was on record as saying something like "when Lidstrom retires, so am I". Holland knew Lidstrom's value and the impossibility of replacing him. The ultimate kick in the junk though was Rafalski unexpectedly retiring and Stuart wanting to head back to the west coast. If you want to go back further, Jiri Fischer almost dying on the bench and subsequently retiring from cardiac irregularities set the team back. If you want to flash forward, Holland going heavy in on Suter right after Lidstrom retired only to have Suter decide he wanted to play closer to home... which has since become a reoccurring theme/nightmare for various reasons. And it's not like rebuilding your defensive corps is easy to do when your first draft pick every year is in the 20's or 30's... something both Detroit and Pittsburgh have to deal with these days.

 

[awaz]

Yes, TJ Oshie (73rd) will outscore Brandon Saad (78) and Nick Foligno (84).

Who are the projected linemates of the guy he says will finish 11th.

I raise you Michael Raffl (291st), projected to play with Giroux (7) and Voracek (10).