Overvalued/ Undervalued

[Ram Tough]

Just by looking at where some players are going in drafts (ADP) I see alot of value going late and a couple reaches early on.

Overvalued:
C.J Spiller- In my opinion he's being drafted a little to early. People love his YPC avg last year but in all honesty the people who think he can withstand 300-350 touches better be praying their lucky stars at night. O-line is weaaaak!!!! and durability concerns are a red flag for me.. I know many will disagree but I can't see Spiller lasting over 16 games with an increased workload.

Tom Brady- If your drafting Brady as a Top 5 Fantasy Qb and expecting another 4500, 30 tds your going to be sadly disappointed. Gronk looks like he is going to miss the first 6 games as he may start season on PUP. Brady owners and Pats fan better hope Amendola stays healthy, he looks like their only hope.

Ray Rice- I see a big drop in Production for Rice this year, Ravens seem to really like Pierce and don't mind giving him a 60/40 split with Rice... Only time i'd consider taking Rice with a Top 10 pick is in a PPR League.

Reggie Bush- People are drooling over Reggie this year and besides in a PPR league I can't see why? In a Non-PPR League i would only consider taking Bush as my 3rd or 4th RB.

Colin Kaepernick- If you can get Kaps as the 10-12th QB taken off the board then that's good value but I have witnessed him going as the 6th or 7th Qb taken off the board and in my opinion that's way to early for him.. Kaps for me is a Bust candidate; interesting to see how he handles life without Crabtree. Turnovers will pile up this year (just my opinion)

Eric Decker- Alot of talent out there in Denver I can't see Decker coming close to last year's stats.. Being drafted as a Top 20 WR I feel there's players who go a couple rounds later that will match or have better Fantasy Numbers than Decker this year.

Undervalued:

Russell Wilson - Harvin is a big loss and lowers Wilson's ceiling, but it's not like Percy was on the team last year... I still see Wilson at worst as a Top 10-12 QB and with Harvin's injury you can wait til the later rounds to grab Wilson( rounds 7-9) Would be smart to draft a quality Backup QB if you take Wilson tho.

Sam Bradford- Not a homer pick.. I really see Bradford breaking out this year, finally has weapons around him with an O-Line that should keep him up straight. Bradford's potential in my opinion is 4000 yds 30 Tds and a Top 15 Fantasy QB.

Demarco Murray- Mr. injury Prone himself... i know i know guy gets hurt ALOT but this year I am feeling a breakout for Murray and yes that's only if he can stay healthy.. Hes being drafted as the 15th-20th rb taken off the board.. If Murray can put it all together he will easily finish as a Top 10 RB.

Lamar Miller- Lightning Fast.. 3 Down Back.. weak division.. I see a big year for Miller.. He usually is the 18th-24th Rb taken off the board I see him finishing as a Top 15 RB.

Shane Vereen- I really like Vereen this year.. Especially in a PPR League!! He is taking Woodhead's spot and if Ridley continues to have fumbling issues don't be shocked to see Vereen take over as the starter at some point during the season. Being drafted as the 28th-34th Rb I feel that is a steal.. Like him as a 3rd or 4th Rb in a non PPR..In a PPR Vereen's value goes through the roof... I like him as a Low end number 2 high end 3 with Top 15 potential (PPR only)

Pierre Garcon - Talent is there but so are the injury concerns.. Being drafted as the 18th-25th WR taken off the board.. If he can stay healthy he should be a Top 15 WR.

Kenny Britt- For once no off-season issues with Britt.. Finally healthy and it's a contract year.. Taken as the 25th-35th WR.. I like Britt's upside, Talent is there he is a nice gamble mid to later rounds

Jared Cook- being drafted anywhere from the 8th-14th TE taken.. Cook is a great talent and is finally on a team that will use him correctly.. Cook is going to be moved all over the field.. I see a monster season coming for Jared.. Don't be surprised to see him as a Top 5 TE when the season ends.


Well here's my little write up... Give comments opinions or give your overvalued and undervalued.

 

[tlance]

Nice list. There are a couple I disagree with slightly, but the big one is Brady.

Aside from Randy Moss, when has Brady ever had elite WRs? He made Welker, Gronk and Hernandez fantasy studs. The names may be different and the numbers may fall of slightly, but underestimate the hoody and Brady at your own risk. I would feel very comfortable drafting him in the 4th round (no sooner). I think he is right at the top of the next QB tier, right after Newton and Manning (the good one).

 

[Ram Tough]

Nice list. There are a couple I disagree with slightly, but the big one is Brady.

Aside from Randy Moss, when has Brady ever had elite WRs? He made Welker, Gronk and Hernandez fantasy studs.

I feel welker and Gronk would be stars even without Brady.. Welker would need to fit in the right system tho for him to have success without Brady..Gronk would be a stud on any team. Maybe not as productive but still a beast.

I just can't see Brady being a Top 5 Fantasy QB this year but that's my opinion. I won't be drafting him...

 

[TREFF]

I agree with the whole thing, minus Kaeos and Murray. Well done Ram.

We're all well aware of the Kaeps debate so won't revisit that. As for Murray..he's badically a new version of DMC, I have him valued low because the likelihood of him playing 10+ games is about 50/50

 

[wilwhite]

I don't disagree much - except I think Rice will get a ton of touches, especially in the passing game with Pitta out.

And Murray as a breakout if he's healthy isn't really news - I think he's only going as late as he is because nobody expects him to stay healthy.

As for Brady, he had Moss or the Welker/Gronk/Hernandez combo for five years with great results. He had six years without those guys and never sniffed 30 TDs in any of them and only crept past 4000 passing yards once. If you bank on him now it's because you think Brady is a significantly better QB than he was in 2006 - or that Amendola can do what Welker did, Gronk won't miss time, and Vereen or somebody makes up for the loss of Hernandez.

 

[David_son]

I disagree with Spiller. Maybe slightly overvalued if people are taking him high first round but I think low first early second is a good spot for him. To me there are no injury concerns and the offense wants to run 70-80 plays a game so with KK or EJ being the QB there will be a good amount of touches. and The OLine is not as bad as you think. Wood is an Elite Center. Glenn is a young and improving LT Pears and Urbik are decent servicable G and T. only truly weak spot is LG

 

[Ram Tough]

Gronk won't miss time

I have read many reports that he is most likely going to start the year on the PUP so the earliest he would be back is week 7...

 

[David_son]

And how can you have Kap and over valued but have Wilson as undervalued. Both should be right there in the group right after the Elite.

 

[Ram Tough]

I disagree with Spiller. Maybe slightly overvalued if people are taking him high first round but I think low first early second is a good spot for him.

I agree.. He usually gets drafted anywhere from 5th to 10th overall tho and i think that's a little to early for him.. if you can get him in 2nd round pull the trigger...

I say Spiller's overvalued becuz there are talks of him being a Top 3 rb when the season ends and I just can't see it.. Not with that o-line and offense.. Lets see how Spiller does with a bigger workload and if he can hold up

 

[Ram Tough]

And how can you have Kap and over valued but have Wilson as undervalued. Both should be right there in the group right after the Elite.

I've seen Kaps being taken as the 6 or 7th Qb off the board..In my opinion that's to early for him.. Wilson now is like the 10th-13th QB taken off the board and goes 1 to 3 rounds later than Kaps

 

[Ram Tough]

The OLine is not as bad as you think. Wood is an Elite Center. Glenn is a young and improving LT Pears and Urbik are decent servicable G and T. only truly weak spot is LG

I live in Rochester, NY the Bills Training camp is in town.. Ive been to a couple sessions all i hear is how bad the o-line has looked.. My relative is friends with an assistant coach and he told him that a weak spot on the team is the o-line.. eric wood an elite center? that's a little farfetched

 

[David_son]

I live in Rochester, NY the Bills Training camp is in town.. Ive been to a couple sessions all i hear is how bad the o-line has looked.. My relative is friends with an assistant coach and he told him that a weak spot on the team is the o-line.. eric wood an elite center? that's a little farfetched

He has the talent to be Elite and when he plays he looks it.... his only problem is injuries.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

I think doug martin is very over-rated by his ADP... I would never take him 3rd... i think that is insane... I would love him on my team but i would never pick him in the top 5... The biggest reasons

1. The Bucs have a more difficult schedule this season, and Martin had a couple amazing games vs some very bad competition...

2. He had too many touches last season...368 touches is a lot...

3. add the first 2 reasons with the fact that he is going to be a sophomore NFL player. He had such a great season last year can he play up to the hype??

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I think doug martin is very over-rated by his ADP... I would never take him 3rd... i think that is insane... I would love him on my team but i would never pick him in the top 5... The biggest reasons

1. The Bucs have a more difficult schedule this season, and Martin had a couple amazing games vs some very bad competition...

2. He had too many touches last season...368 touches is a lot...

3. add the first 2 reasons with the fact that he is going to be a sophomore NFL player. He had such a great season last year can he play up to the hype??

this is why I love fantasy football - such differing opinions on the same players. Yes, Martin did pad some major stats in about 3-4 games last year, but he still cleared 1400yds rushing, and had 49rec. His O-line was banged up last year, so assuming they stay healthy, a lot of people think he will improve his numbers. He is going to be heavily involved in TB's offensive plans, and by merely not having any major competition for touches on his own team puts him into the top 6 for me.

Nice counterpoints Milk!

 

[Ram Tough]

Doug martin is a beast!!! Ill take him 2nd 3rd overall all day.. I loved him last year he is complete package I don't know who you would consider taking over him besides Ap..charles and idk who else maybe Trent based on potential?

 

[TREFF]

this is why I love fantasy football - such differing opinions on the same players!

What's really crazy is that from week to week, sometimes even over the course of the whole sesson..both can be right or both wrong! Love it!

 

[TKOSpikes]

I live in Rochester, NY the Bills Training camp is in town..

lucky bastard!

 

[averagejoe]

Just by looking at where some players are going in drafts (ADP) I see alot of value going late and a couple reaches early on.

Well here's my little write up... Give comments opinions or give your overvalued and undervalued.

Spiller had a great year. What turns me off about him is that it took him 3 years to get that "great" season. I'm a guy that feels that a skill position player needs to establish himself immediately- as soon as he gets the opportunity. Even if the opportunity doesn't come for a few years (which is fine - i.e. See Willie Parker). Guys that don't seize their opportunity are unpredictable. The optimists will envision Spiller 2012. And the pessimists almost expect Spiller of 2010.

I agree with you on Brady. I don't think he'll have a terrible season. But they just gutted his receivers and replaced them with rookies and health risks.

I'm starting to turn the corner on Bradford too. The Rams were 4-1-1 in their division last season which included the Niners and Seahawks.

My Overvalued:
Graham - going in the 2nd round or early 3rd? They do score the TE position the same as the WR, right? I don't see Mike Williams, Hilton or Shorts going that high - and they had similar numbers.

My Undervalue:
Nobody.

 

[Barilko]

My Overvalued:
Graham - going in the 2nd round or early 3rd? They do score the TE position the same as the WR, right? I don't see Mike Williams, Hilton or Shorts going that high - and they had similar numbers.

Wow a small first Joe i may not agree

Yes they do score Wr and Te the same..however as we are all painfully aware the Te spot is Graham and then the rest and you must put a Te in the line up every week
thus to get Mr Graham you need pick him mid to late 2nd or early third
wherein there will be plenty of Shorts -Williams etc etc in the middle rounds..to fill your 2nd and 3rd wr spots..

of course if you jumped on Mr Graham as i luckily did 2 years ago in my keeper league i get the big guy for a 7th rounder this year...

 

[TREFF]

Joe..Priest Holmes comes to mind. .as does Marshal Faulk, as great RB'S that didn't fully seize their initial opportunity. Perhaps they are the rare exception, but thats just two off the top of my head