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Overvalued/ Undervalued

averagejoe

You fell victim to one of the classic blunders.
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Just stirring the pot some more....

Overvalued:
Tom Brady- If your drafting Brady as a Top 5 Fantasy Qb and expecting another 4500, 30 tds your going to be sadly disappointed. Gronk looks like he is going to miss the first 6 games as he may start season on PUP. Brady owners and Pats fan better hope Amendola stays healthy, he looks like their only hope.

I agree with you on Brady. I don't think he'll have a terrible season. But they just gutted his receivers and replaced them with rookies and health risks.

I think I'm also bumping Aaron Rodgers down too because he's kind of in the same situation as Brady. No Jennings. No Nelson. Stone-hands Finley. They just lost an OT. Plus the focus on establishing the run game by drafting Lacy & Franklin. Will Cobb handle double-teams? Lots of unknowns.
 

tlance

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Just stirring the pot some more....





I think I'm also bumping Aaron Rodgers down too because he's kind of in the same situation as Brady. No Jennings. No Nelson. Stone-hands Finley. They just lost an OT. Plus the focus on establishing the run game by drafting Lacy & Franklin. Will Cobb handle double-teams? Lots of unknowns.

While we are at it, we may as well bump Brees too. His primary weapons are mainly in tact, but Sean Peyton has vowed to emphasize the run game a lot more this year. I have no doubt that he will still be a top 3 QB, but he may fall short of 5000 yards and 40 TDs that owners have come to bank on.

Given the QB depth, If Brees goes for 4500 yards and 35 TDs, is he worth a 2nd round pick? I tend to think not. All more reason to wait on QBs this year.
 

wilwhite

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The Saints have a run game?
 

MilkSpiller22

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LOL. Me and one of my buddies in my home league call him Graham cracker.

Wil and Milk, I think you guys are taking projections too literally. Here is actual data from last season:

Graham (cracker) scored 152 points in standard formats. This was 9 more than Gronk (in far fewer games) and 11 more than Gonzo. There were 11 TEs who scored over 100 points. If you had the 8th best TE, you would only have been about 40 points behind Graham. This seems like a lot, but it only amounts to 2.5 points per week. Savvy drafters can usually make a profit off of mid to late round TEs by investing in the right ones further narrowing that advantage.

In contrast, the difference between the 8th best WR and the 25th best was over 50 points. While you can "hit" on a 7th round WR who may produce at a 3rd round level, there is a huge difference between these players. The odds of your 3rd round WR producing at a top 10 level are much better.

I would draft a healthy Gronk in the 2nd round because he provides a huge advantage over every other TE (including Graham). Gronk is not healthy, however, so I will not be selecting a TE until round 6 at the earliest. Graham is a very good player, but not the super elite beastly TE that some analysts market him as. That title applies to Gronk and Gronk alone.



No i was arguing your logic about comparing the 2 players that you were comparing... if you believe graham is over-rated then thats a total different thing... I never said i would draft graham there, i just thought the logic you gave was a little faulty-so i called you out on it...
 

TREFF

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T.. Not only did I follow your logic..but I totslly agree and its a very reasonable comparison of two senarios of how your team would shape up if you drafted Graham vs if you didn't..and its use of showing why you though Graham was overrated.

Does that help ya understand Milk?
 

MilkSpiller22

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this is a very deep year for QBs... its one thing if you can get one of the tops, but assuming if you got one of the tops then you would not waste a pick to get graham, since that means you might not have any top RBs... so by picking graham, i would sacrifice on QB... also 120 is anywhere between the 9th and 13th round depending on how many teams you have in your league... you are not going to draft a kicker or defense in the first 9 rounds anyway. so you already can have 1 QB, 2 RB, 3WR, 1 TE and 2 bench players before you cook or dobson would be on the table... so i dont see how dobson would ever be one of your starters unless you really go crazy with your bench...


Treff, read this message again... because this was my argument against... if you disagree with this and give me a reason why i am wrong then i would be happy to take back what i said about tiance... not that i said anything to really take back...
 

SmokingMonkey

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Food for Thought on the Saints Rushing Abilities:

2009 - 21
2010 - 9
2011 - 16
2012 - 10

Those are team rushing TD totals. I feel like if they would have had the luxury of having a 3 down RB instead of multiple 'specialists' that vulture each other's stats, we would be telling a different tale.

To me, it looks like every other year they switch from all-Brees-all-the-time in the RZ to a more traditional, pound it in game plan. I wouldnt be shocked one bit to see Brees throw for 5000yds again, but to see his TD total dip, especially since his streak is over now.
 

TREFF

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No you didn't..not that I saw..but bottom line..the comparidon scebario is valid, sensible, and is fitting for why he thinks Graham is overrated. I'm sorry, but I have no clue why you think the logic is bad. You have to compare Graham to other players that would be drafted in the round, and against the TE you would take later (as well as the WR/RB/whatever that you'd take if you selected Graham) that's really the only fair way to look at it.
 

MilkSpiller22

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No you didn't..not that I saw..but bottom line..the comparidon scebario is valid, sensible, and is fitting for why he thinks Graham is overrated. I'm sorry, but I have no clue why you think the logic is bad. You have to compare Graham to other players that would be drafted in the round, and against the TE you would take later (as well as the WR/RB/whatever that you'd take if you selected Graham) that's really the only fair way to look at it.

But how can you compare a starter to a bench player??
 

MilkSpiller22

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i am not arguing to whether graham is overrated or not, i am just arguing the logic of the comparison....

I just dont see it, if you guys do then i guess we would have to agree to disagree...
 

MilkSpiller22

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Cuz it's all about potential points..just cuz u draft them to the bench, doesn't necessarily mean you're intending on keeping them there.

Yes, but at the same time WR is much deeper than any other position(since there are more of them) so finding a good WR on the waiver wire is much easier than a TE, so why even talk about backup players??
 

MilkSpiller22

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We all do that to each other a lot. No hard feelings..just good debate. :)
Sometimes we change each other's minds..sometimes, not so much

Luckily this has remained a healthy debate so i dont mind going on until this gets boring(which most debates do)...
 

TREFF

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Luckily this has remained a healthy debate so i dont mind going on until this gets boring(which most debates do)...

We're pretty proud that we rarely, if ever, had a brush fire back on "the site which shall not be named", definitely would like to continue itcas we merge with the SportsHoopla regulars :)
 

MilkSpiller22

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i do think our debate could have its own thread, just need a way to have it make sense, since i think even though we are talking specifics, i think it is an interesting general question...
 

TKOSpikes

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MilkSpiller22 is my nomination for any B League vacancies (if any).
 

wilwhite

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I'll second that.
 
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