Overrated QB's

[Oldschool739]

A so called Viking fan slamming the best QB that ever played for the Vikings. Go figure.

I'm still scratching my head.....Tarkenton was one of the best at extending a play with his scrambling abilities and led them to 4 SB appearances, I wonder who this guy thinks is a top tier qb....

 

[Eco]

I don't know a lot of people that consider Cam top 3. And prior to last season there weren't a lot of people that considered him top 10. Last year his peripheral numbers were excellent as well as his cumulative.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/priscos-top-100-players-ranking-all-32-nfl-starting-quarterbacks/

Has him 4th behind Rodgers, Brady, and Ben. So, not a stretch I'd say.

 

[flyerhawk]

Prisco's Top 100 players: Ranking all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks

Has him 4th behind Rodgers, Brady, and Ben. So, not a stretch I'd say.

Yeah. The guy won MVP last year and he STILL couldn't crack the top 3.

 

[Eco]

Yeah. The guy won MVP last year and he STILL couldn't crack the top 3.

Top 3 are all HoF material so surely in the league with elite QB's, it can't be THAT surprising.

 

[GNG]

Top 1 actually (if you're talking about interceptions).

Who cares about INT's... The guy played in 362 straight games.

 

[NinerSickness]

Actually Elway for his career averaged about 5% better than the league average in QB rating (14% better in the WCO, Pro football reference breaks those out for you). So if that "says a hell of a lot", there you go. He ranked above average for his career in YPA, TD%, INT%, sack rate, Comp% as well.

Where are you getting those numbers?

 

[NinerSickness]

You're telling me that a terrible Falcons franchise, weren't successful under Vick? It was the most successful we've ever been until Matt Ryan.

2001 (Before Vick was Full-Time, 7-9)
2002 - 9-6-1 (Lost in Divisional Playoffs)
2003 - 5-11 (But Vick broke his leg preseason, missing most of the year)
2004 - 11-5 (Lost in NFC Championship)
2005 - 8-8 (Missed Playoffs)
2006 - 7-9 (Vick's last year)

So, to go 35-28-1 (Not counting anything from the year he broke his leg) isn't garbage when you consider the franchise had a 252 - 345 record beforehand.

Beside, he isn't HoF worthy anyways. He was the best we've ever had until Ryan/Roddy/JJ all got here and on the same page, but to say he was garbage just makes you look dumb.

You're completely missing the point. You're comparing him to other FALCON quarterbacks. I'm saying he got far more hype than he deserved. Those are 2 completely separate issues.

 

[NinerSickness]

Who cares about INT's...

You're joking, right?

 

[NinerSickness]

Favre and Elway were both great QB's.

Never disagreed with that.

 

[Psych-Ward]

Bigtime overrated.........

 

[Rockinkuwait]

I wonder why no one is doing a QBR+(traditional) type rating that compares a QBs passer rating compared to his peers rather than to an all time standard? That would be a pretty useful stat.

I think that works somewhat, but again, what about the years before when things like big plays, volume, those high risk/high reward plays were considered more key and efficiency was not as key as we think of it today?

So kinda like the Michael Jordan with eFG%... You are grading him on an efficiency metric for shot selection in a time when that shot selection efficiency was not thought of nearly as important as it is currently.

I think there is some good in it, but it would favor the current belief of what makes a QB great (which I do agree with by the way), when that may have not been what coaches were putting as much focus on when that guy played.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

You're completely missing the point. You're comparing him to other FALCON quarterbacks. I'm saying he got far more hype than he deserved. Those are 2 completely separate issues.

I'd agree on the hype for sure... But I think overhyping and overrating a QB are two different things as well. None of the really good media guys were rating him as an excellent passer, or a guy who can stay in the pocket, take a hit, and pop back up, or a guy that can read a D and go through progressions. Those guys were saying his physical skill set was off the chart, but he has a long way to go to become a great passer.

Now the hype train absolutely was there, where you had lots of the lesser media and sponsors and league hyping him as a superweapon and such.

 

[flyerhawk]

I think that works somewhat, but again, what about the years before when things like big plays, volume, those high risk/high reward plays were considered more key and efficiency was not as key as we think of it today?

So kinda like the Michael Jordan with eFG%... You are grading him on an efficiency metric for shot selection in a time when that shot selection efficiency was not thought of nearly as important as it is currently.

I think there is some good in it, but it would favor the current belief of what makes a QB great (which I do agree with by the way), when that may have not been what coaches were putting as much focus on when that guy played.

Actually I think that passer rating has become outdated and that it reflected good QB play better in the 80s and 90s than it does today. Low risk lateral passers tend to have high passer ratings without being particularly good QBs. See Smith, Alex.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Actually I think that passer rating has become outdated and that it reflected good QB play better in the 80s and 90s than it does today. Low risk lateral passers tend to have high passer ratings without being particularly good QBs. See Smith, Alex.

Yup, QBR is a further evolution of that for sure. Again, not perfect, but it takes QB rating and adds situational success to it (ie 3rd and 10 an 8 yard completion isn't a success, 3rd and 7 that same play is).

But of course Montana and Young really were the Alex Smith's of their generation as well. That WCO was so much more low risk than what everyone else was running. It's tough to compare guys side by side that were in the WCO when it hadn't proliferated the league..

 

[GNG]

You're joking, right?

Why would I joke about that?

 

[NinerSickness]

Actually I think that passer rating has become outdated and that it reflected good QB play better in the 80s and 90s than it does today. Low risk lateral passers tend to have high passer ratings without being particularly good QBs. See Smith, Alex.

Alex Smith has a career rating of 84.5, which is middle-of-the-road for his career. It's been better lately because he's been a better QB, but his efficiency numbers have still been mediocre at best (especially when you take things like yards per attempt into consideration; 6.73 for his career is downright bad).

 

[NinerSickness]

Why would I joke about that?

Let me rephrase...

Since turnovers are usually what decides the outcome of a game, how could you say you don't care about interceptions? That makes zero sense.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

Alex Smith has a career rating of 84.5, which is middle-of-the-road for his career. It's been better lately because he's been a better QB, but his efficiency numbers have still been mediocre at best (especially when you take things like yards per attempt into consideration; 6.73 for his career is downright bad).

Yeah, but he's been at 93 the past 5 years after his really rough start back when he would try to press the D with his throws. And then a great comp%, int% (2nd best to only Rodgers the past 5 years)... the efficiency numbers are there... Same with Pennington back in the day, Garcia at points in his career. Brian Griese at times.. Kolb, Feeley, Kanell, Leinart. Grbac and Bono, guys off the top of my head I think who's efficiency stats were a bit misrepresenting of how effective they were.

Of course where the super conservative throwing game plan falls apart for some of those guys is when they are asked to push a defense, the 2 minute warning situations where they don't have the velocity and downfield ball placement to throw against a cover 2 under out toward the sidelines. And in those area's, those types of QB's almost always tend to fall off and really struggle. It's crazy, almost like clockwork.

So I'd say their efficiency is overstated when it comes to winning at times because they struggle in those biggest of game defining moments.

 

[NinerSickness]

Yeah, but he's been at 93 the past 5 years after his really rough start back when he would try to press the D with his throws. And then a great comp%, int% (2nd best to only Rodgers the past 5 years)... the efficiency numbers are there... Same with Pennington back in the day, Garcia at points in his career.

2 things: efficiency also includes yards per attempt and points per drive. Alex's numbers in those areas have been pretty bad. He's great at not totally f***ing up; he probably would've been the perfect Broncos QB last year. But he's not an efficient passer. He's a rich man's Sam Bradford.

Secondly, Chad Pennington was a truly great QB before he injured his shoulder. He really was. It didn't last because he didn't have the body for it. But if he were more durable & strong, I think he could've made it to the HOF one day. The hardest part about being a QB is what happens between the ears, and Chad was great in that aspect. He just got derailed by injuries like a lot of other great players have over the years.

Brian Griese at times.. Kolb, Feeley, Kanell, Leinart. Grbac and Bono, guys off the top of my head I think who's efficiency stats were a bit misrepresenting of how effective they were.

None of those guys were consistently efficient. Not even close. 1 or 2 good years is nothing.

Some QBs have been efficient & didn't play with a conservative style. Brett Favre is one (who was a great QB despite getting WAAAAAY too much credit, which makes him overrated IMO). Colin Kaepernick threw down the field a ton in his 2 good seasons as well (but he's a mental midget compared to Favre, so defenses figured him out). If you're too conservative, yards per attempt are going to be the most telling stat.

 

[Rockinkuwait]

2 things: efficiency also includes yards per attempt and points per drive. Alex's numbers in those areas have been pretty bad. He's great at not totally f***ing up; he probably would've been the perfect Broncos QB last year. But he's not an efficient passer. He's a rich man's Sam Bradford.

Secondly, Chad Pennington was a truly great QB before he injured his shoulder. He really was. It didn't last because he didn't have the body for it. But if he were more durable & strong, I think he could've made it to the HOF one day. The hardest part about being a QB is what happens between the ears, and Chad was great in that aspect. He just got derailed by injuries like a lot of other great players have over the years.



None of those guys were consistently efficient. Not even close. 1 or 2 good years is nothing.

Some QBs have been efficient & didn't play with a conservative style. Brett Favre is one (who was a great QB despite getting WAAAAAY too much credit, which makes him overrated IMO). Colin Kaepernick threw down the field a ton in his 2 good seasons as well (but he's a mental midget compared to Favre, so defenses figured him out). If you're too conservative, yards per attempt are going to be the most telling stat.

I wasn't calling them efficient, I was saying their numbers were MORE efficient than their impact. Their numbers might make them look average or decent at times when they weren't.

Pennington is a great example of that. Early on he was looking ok. I remember years ago doing a breakdown on him and I don't remember the other QB... but it was someone decent but not great. But situationally they were the same, same comp rate, QB rating etc on 0 yard passes, 10 yard passes, 20 yard passes, just Pennington didn't take the shots and the other QB did. Other QB had the wins, the comebacks, etc. Chad had the better efficiency numbers. When things were going good around him, he could look amazing, but knock a wheel off and ask him to make plays in a tough situation, and you saw it, man he fell apart quickly.

You are right, he was really smart, he never would take the risky throws that he knew he couldn't make.

I think that's part of why he could look so good and fall so flat when the game was on the line. I mean those numbers look great, but like I said, what does he do with the 2 minute drill? Wow what a drop off there... right there with Rex Grossman and Trent Edwards all of a sudden. I think that's why it was such a rare sight to see him turn a game around late.