Outplay Factor.....

[bengaldoug]

Outplay factor analyzes statistics in comparison to opponents statistics. It's a good way to analyze relative team performance up to now. Here are the top to bottom rankings by points per game, offense and defense combined.

1) Bengals +17.8
2) Chargers +12.0
3) Falcons +10.7
4) Ravens +10.0
5) Cards +7.0
6) Seahawks +6.1 Broncos +6.1 tie
8) Saints +4.4
9) Bills +4.2
10) Bears +3.7
11) Eagles +3.1
12) 49ers +2.6
13) Steelers +2.1
14) Redskins +1.5
15) Browns +1.4
16) Texans +1.3
17) Lions +0.9
18) Colts +0.8
19) Giants -0.8
20) Patriots -0.9
21) Panthers -1.8
22) Vikings -2.7
23) Titans -3.1
24) Cowboys -4.1
25) Packers -5.7
26) Dolphins -5.8
27) Chiefs -6.1
28) Raiders -7.1
29) Jets -7.8
30) Rams -15.0
31) Bucs -15.9
32) Jags -18.6

The Bengals have a solid edge on these numbers after three weeks, and it is also notable that two of their three opponents, the Falcons and Ravens, are third and fourth in these rankings.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

Outplay factor analyzes statistics in comparison to opponents statistics. It's a good way to analyze relative team performance up to now. Here are the top to bottom rankings by points per game, offense and defense combined.

1) Bengals +17.8
2) Chargers +12.0
3) Falcons +10.7
4) Ravens +10.0
5) Cards +7.0
6) Seahawks +6.1 Broncos +6.1 tie
8) Saints +4.4
9) Bills +4.2
10) Bears +3.7
11) Eagles +3.1
12) 49ers +2.6
13) Steelers +2.1
14) Redskins +1.5
15) Browns +1.4
16) Texans +1.3
17) Lions +0.9
18) Colts +0.8
19) Giants -0.8
20) Patriots -0.9
21) Panthers -1.8
22) Vikings -2.7
23) Titans -3.1
24) Cowboys -4.1
25) Packers -5.7
26) Dolphins -5.8
27) Chiefs -6.1
28) Raiders -7.1
29) Jets -7.8
30) Rams -15.0
31) Bucs -15.9
32) Jags -18.6

The Bengals have a solid edge on these numbers after three weeks, and it is also notable that two of their three opponents, the Falcons and Ravens, are third and fourth in these rankings.

Those are very interesting numbers. I didn't know they had a stat for what you just posted. Nice.

 

[bengaldoug]

I'll go through the steps of calculating the Bengals' rating as an example.

Bengals averaging 26.7 ppg Opponents giving up an average of 21.3 ppg offensive outplay is 5.4ppg

Bengals yielding 11 ppg Opponents scoring an average of 23.4 ppg offensive outplay is 12.4 ppg

Total outplay = sum of offensive and defensive outplay numbers or 17.8 ppg

 

[bengaldoug]

I don't think they are as good a measure of relative strength as power ratings are, but if you look at the rankings and compare them to power ratings you see around there is a similarity. In my own power ratings I still have Seattle rated first, but that's in deference to last season. These numbers are more a performance rating for this year to date. I've been told that they are useful in finding underdogs to bet. The reasoning is an underdog with a higher outplay rating than their opponent has a good chance to cover the spread. If this is true, Chicago, Buffalo, and Philadelphia are live dogs this week. I'll update the ratings every week from here on out.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

I still think the Bengals deserve to be ranked 1st, especially when you look at the +47 the Bengals have racked up on opponents in scoring differential. Next closest is the Falcons at +31.

You consider the fact that the Bengals opponents are 5-1 when not playing the Bengals.

2 of the 3 teams in your list as you just stated are ranked 3 and 4.

I think as of right now, the power ranking are arguable, AFTER #1, which are the Bengals.

I don't think Seattle should deserve a #1 ranking just because they won the SB last year. They have not played the same as last year so far this year. Yes, they killed GB, but once again, it was at home and GB has been kinda miserable this year so far. Took Denver to OT at home, where they may have easily lost had Denver won the coin toss.

I am not denying your own system, only that I do not have the same point of view as you and disagree with your number 1, at least for this week.

 

[bengaldoug]

In my power ratings, every team this year started with the same number they ended with last season. Seattle started out at 10, the Bengals at 5. After three weeks the Seahawks are still at 10 while the Bengals have closed to 8. San Diego started at 6 and have closed to 9. So the Bengals and Chargers have made the biggest moves toward the top. If you look at the outplay ratings from this season that makes absolute sense.

It's way too early to draw many conclusions.

 

[CrashDavisSports]

How do you determine your ratings for your power rankings? What is your method?

 

[bengaldoug]

How do you determine your ratings for your power rankings? What is your method?

I started last year. Before last season started I started every team at 0. I then went through every game from 2012. The first week I matched up every game starting every team at 0 with 3 points given for homefield. I then adjusted each team from the final score that game. I also checked the stats of the game so that I didn't overadjust for blowouts caused by turnovers. I limited adjustment for each team to 4 points the first four weeks, three points through week 12, and two points for the remainder of the regular season and playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl. I used the final ratings for 2012 as the starting ratings for 2013. I then repeated the process for the entire season of 2013 all the way through the Super Bowl and gave each team the same starting number for this year that they finished with in 2013. Generally I make adjustments for every seven points the final actual score differs from my projected score, again checking statistics from the game to confirm my adjustments. It's a pretty objective method which only occasionally requires subjectivity.

 

[flamingrey]

I'll go through the steps of calculating the Bengals' rating as an example.

Bengals averaging 26.7 ppg Opponents giving up an average of 21.3 ppg offensive outplay is 5.4ppg

Bengals yielding 11 ppg Opponents scoring an average of 23.4 ppg offensive outplay is 12.4 ppg

Total outplay = sum of offensive and defensive outplay numbers or 17.8 ppg

As the season progresses and the sample sizes increase, I'd recommend also breaking home and road games into the equation. Every team plays better at home than it does on the road. So, for example, comparing the Falcons output and yield against the Bengals to their output and yield against other road opponents.

Both set of ratings would be ideal (considering home/road and not considering home/road).

 

[cincygrad]

NFL Week 4 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds | FiveThirtyEight

 

[bengaldoug]

As the season progresses and the sample sizes increase, I'd recommend also breaking home and road games into the equation. Every team plays better at home than it does on the road. So, for example, comparing the Falcons output and yield against the Bengals to their output and yield against other road opponents.

Both set of ratings would be ideal (considering home/road and not considering home/road).

Makes sense, but quadruples the workload. I can readjust quickly using Statfox.com, but they don't offer home/road stats updated weekly. I can get most of the ratings directly from their game matchups, and only have to do the teams on byes by hand. But along about after week 8 I will put in the time for home/road stats. Maybe I'll update those once a month rather than every week. Such ratings might be good for analyzing just how much the home field is worth to every team, as the standard 3pt advantage is flawed.

Edit: I know I'm weird, but I dearly love math.

 

[bengaldoug]

NFL Week 4 Elo Ratings And Playoff Odds | FiveThirtyEight

Now that would be way too much work, unless you knew how to program a computer spreadsheet to do the grunt work. I don't.

 

[bengaldoug]

Updated outplay ratings

1)Bengals +16.6
2)Ravens +12.8
3)Cards +11.1
4)Broncos +10.0
5)Seahawks +9.5
6)Chargers +7.4
7)Falcons +5.0
8)Bills +4.2
9)49ers +4.0
10) Lions +3.7
11)Colts +3.1
12)Chiefs +2.7
13)Texans +1.9
14)Browns +1.2
15) Cowboys +0.7
16) 17) Eagles and Packers +0.3
18)Saints -0.7
19) Giants -0.8
20) Vikings -1.1
21) Steelers -2.4
22) Titans -2.8
23) Bears -3.2
24) Patriots -3.9
25) Panthers -4.8
26) Redskins -5.3
27) Dolphins -5.8
28) Jets -6.9
29) Raiders -7.1
30) Rams -10.5
31) Bucs -14.5
32) Jags -18.3

 

[bengaldoug]

My Updated Power Ratings
1) Seahawks 10
2) Chargers 8
3) Bengals 7
4)5)6) Cards Broncs 49ers 6
7)8) Packers Chiefs 5
9) Colts 3
10)11)12) Ravens Cowboys Saints 2
13)14)15) Eagles Lions Patriots 1
16)17)18) Falcons Panthers Vikings 0
19)20)21) Dolphins Giants Steelers -1
22)23) Bears Rams -2
24)25) Bills Browns -3
26)27) Titans Jets -4
28)29) Bucs Titans -5
30)31) Raiders Redskins -9
32) Jags -10

 

[bengaldoug]

According to the outplay ratings, the live dogs this week are :

1) Ravens +3.5
2) Cards +7.5
3) Falcons +4
4) Bills +7
5) Titans +6.5

These are the games where the dog has the higher outplay number. They are not necessarily my plays, though I will admit to already having bet the Ravens and Falcons.

 

[bengaldoug]

Outplay ratings updated after week five:

1)2) Seattle and Denver +12.3
3) Baltimore +9.7
4) San Diego +9.6
5) Indianapolis +7.3
6) Arizona +6.7
7) Cincinnati +5.6
8) NYGiants +5.2
9) Buffalo +5.0
10) Green Bay +4.2
11) Detroit +3.7
12)13) Dallas and San Francisco +3.1
14) Kansas City +2.7
15) Houston +2.3
16) New England +1.3
17) Philadelphia +0.1
18) Atlanta 0.0
19) New Orleans -0.7
20)21) MIami and Cleveland -1.4
22) Carolina -3.5
23) Chicago -4.0
24) Pittsburgh -4.3
25) Washington -4.9
26) Minnesota -5.0
27) Tennessee -5.3
28) NYJets -8.1
29) St Louis -9.8
30) Tampa Bay -12.8
31) Oakland -13.8
32) Jacksonville -15.5

 

[bengaldoug]

Why do the ratings still have the Bengals nine places ahead of the Pats? Because the ratings are for total season performance. The more games that are played, the tighter they should get. The Pats moved up 8 spots and the Bengals down 6.

 

[bengaldoug]

Here are my updated power ratings
1)2) Seattle and San Diego +10
3) Denver 8
4) Green Bay 7
5) San Francisco 6
6) Kansas City 5
7)8)9) New England, Arizona and Cincinnati 4
10) Indy 3
11)12) Baltimore and Dallas 2
13)14) New Orleans and Philadelphis 1
15)16)17) Carolina, Detroit, and NYGiants 0
18)19)20) Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Miami -1
21)22)23)24) Buffalo, Chicago, Minnesota and StLouis -2
25) Cleveland -3
26)27) Tampa Bay and Houston -4
28) Tennessee -5
29) NYJets -6
30) 31) Oakland and Washington -9
32) Jacksonville -10

 

[cincygrad]

Here are my updated power ratings
1)2) Seattle and San Diego +10
3) Denver 8
4) Green Bay 7
5) San Francisco 6
6) Kansas City 5
7)8)9) New England, Arizona and Cincinnati 4
10) Indy 3
11)12) Baltimore and Dallas 2
13)14) New Orleans and Philadelphis 1
15)16)17) Carolina, Detroit, and NYGiants 0
18)19)20) Atlanta, Pittsburgh and Miami -1
21)22)23)24) Buffalo, Chicago, Minnesota and StLouis -2
25) Cleveland -3
26)27) Tampa Bay and Houston -4
28) Tennessee -5
29) NYJets -6
30) 31) Oakland and Washington -9
32) Jacksonville -10

That KC ranking must be weighted too much on the NE game.

 

[bengaldoug]

That KC ranking must be weighted too much on the NE game.

Actually they are one point below their season starting rating. The only bad game they really had was their opening loss at home to Tennessee. Since then they had a close loss at Denver, a solid win at Miami, the blowout of New England, and the close loss at San Francisco where they had the lead in the second half. That's a pretty solid number imo.