When We Win/Lose Trends

[MHSL82]

When Do We Win/Lose? (Every game, obviously.)

When we win or tie the Offensive Rebounds: 8-17
When we lose the Offensive Rebounds: 6-9

Defensive Rebounds: 13-13, 1-13
Total Rebounds: 12-15, 2-11
Assists: 10-8, 4-18
Steals: 6-10, 8-16
Blocks: 10-18, 4-8
Turnovers: 4-9, 10-17 (Win = Fewer TOs)
FG%: 13-2, 1-24
3PTM: 10-12, 4-14
3PT%: 8-7, 6-19
FTA: 10-9, 4-17
FT%: 9-9, 5-17
Transition: 11-13, 3-13
Points in Paint: 11-15, 3-11
Points Off Turnovers: 5-9, 9-17 (W = Fewer Points Given Away)

Why do we have a better record when losing the turnovers and points off turnovers battle? Aggressiveness?

Offense

Wins:
401/845 (47.5%), 82/219 3PT (37.4%), 224/288 (77.8%, 26.2 ATT), 10.4 Off Reb, 35.1 Def Reb, 20.9 Asts, 5.7 Stls, 5.7 Blks, 19.6 PFs, 100.7 Pts, 13.4 Transition, 43.5 Points in the Paint, 15.2 TOs, 17.1 Points off TOs.

Losses:
748/1679 (44.6%), 136/434 (31.3%), 330/469 (70.4%, 22.3 ATT), 11.9 Off Reb, 28.2 Def Reb, 19.8 Asts, 6.4 Stls, 5.0 BLKs, 18.6 PFs, 93.9 PTs, 12.5 Transition, 44.0 Points in the Paint, 14.4 TOs, 18.1 Points off TOs.

As far as I can tell, only shooting, getting to the line, and defensive rebounds have any real significance in winning. Assists, TOs, and some transition do a little. Steals, offensive rebounds, TOs, and points in the paint, not really. - This suggests that aggressiveness leads to more TOs, but more points. Shooting better, duh.

Defense

Wins:
374/897 (41.7%), 72/226 (31.9%), 181/245 (73.9%, 22.3 ATT), 9.2 Off Def, 27.5 Def Reb, 17.6 Asts, 8.1 Stls, 3.8 Blks, 22 PFs, 91.0 PTs, 10.8 Transition, 38.7 Points in the Paint, 11.5 TOs, 15.0 Points off TOs.

Losses:
856/1708 (50.1%), 175/431 (40.6%), 312/409 (76.3%, 19.5 ATT), 10.1 Off Def, 30.1 Def Reb, 20.8 Asts, 7.8 Stls, 5.2 Blks, 19.1 PFs, 104.7 PTs, 11.3 Transition, 43.4 Points in the Paint, 12.2 TOs, 15.0 Points off TOs.

In our wins, we hold opponents to a significantly lower field goal percent. This is a duh statement, but look how drastic of a change it is. Three point shooting, too. Rebounding is clearly important, as are assists for our opponents. Steals are not, but blocks are (leads to worse shooting for us, right?) Points in the paint allowed is a bigger factor than points we score in the paint. More turnovers = more points for our opponents, too. Aggressiveness leads to TOs and points. Points off turnovers, again, not very significant.

Differences: (This is our stats when we win subtract opponent stats when we win NOT wins minus losses. You can do that by sight, if you'd like.)

Wins:
44.6% - 50.1% = 5.5% Worse than Opponents, 31.3% - 40.6% = 9.3% Worse 3PT%, 70.4% - 76.3% = 5.9% Worse FT%, 1.2 more Off Reb, 7.6 More Def Reb, 3.3 More Asts, 2.4 Fewer Stls, 1.9 More Blks, 2.4 Fewer Fouls, 9.7 More Points, 2.6 More Transition, 4.8 More Pts in the Paint, 3.7 More TOs, 2.1 More Points Off Turnovers

Losses:
47.5% - 41.7% = 5.8% Better than Opponents, 37.4% - 31.9% = 5.5% Better 3PT%, 77.8% - 73.9% = 3.9% Better FT%, 1.8 more Off Reb, 1.9 Fewer Def Reb, 1.0 Fewer Asts, 1.4 Fewer Stls, 0.2 Fewer Blks, 0.5 More Fouls, 10.8 Fewer Points, 1.2 Fewer Transition, 0.6 More Pts in the Paint, 2.2 More TOs, 3.1 More Points Off Turnovers

Updated: 1/17/2015 but not totals.

 

[MHSL82]

This last game was the first game where we won when losing the FG% battle. 1-24 when we've shot worse than our opponents.

It was also the only game we won after being out rebounded on the defensive glass. 1-13 when we lose the defensive rebounds battle.

Could we play the Lakers Kobe-less every game?

(We won the points (duh), assists, three point makes, free-throw percent (but not makes or attempts), steals, blocks, offensive rebounds, fast break points, transition, turnovers, and points off turnovers.)

 

[MHSL82]

Defensive rebounds mean the opponent missed, didn't get the offensive rebound or get fouled. More made shots by us means fewer defensive rebounds for the opponent. Fewer defensive rebounds for the opponent might mean more offensive rebounds for us. More defensive rebounds could mean more fast break baskets. It could also mean more missed free throws by opponent.

Defensive rebounds seems to be the biggest factor outside of points (duh) and field goal percentage (total made, too, duh).

Big guys are good for all three. But I'm sure Nuraman can appreciate the PGs who get a lot of rebounds - faster for transition, guy away from the PG probably shot it (defense maybe?), etc. But he could also note where it is common.
http://forums.******.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=33&t=1364051#wrap

 

[MHSL82]

When we score more points than our opponents, we are 14-0. When we don't, we're 0-26.

 

[nuraman00]

Thanks for the analysis.

Instead of looking at rebounding totals, look at rebound %. Specifically defensive rebound % and offensive rebounding %.

This is because in some games, the two teams don't take a similar amount of FGAs.

Or, one team can miss a lot more shots, thus resulting in more total defensive rebounds for the opposing team. But it's still possible that just because they have more total rebounds, that they didn't do a job on the defensive boards, because they didn't grab a high % of the defensive boards.

Or, a drastic difference in turnovers in a game, can lead to more FGAs for one team.

To calculate DREB%, just take the number of defensive boards by one team, divided by the number of missed FGAs by the opposing team.

The Jazz are 4th in reb %, and 9th in dreb %.

NBA Stats - NBA Team Total Rebounding % (Rebound Rate) on TeamRankings.com

NBA Stats - NBA Team Defensive Rebounding % on TeamRankings.com

 

[nuraman00]

As you said, the Jazz grab more defensive boards in more wins, but you also showed that they play much better defensive.

I'm wondering are they really grabbing a better % of defensive boards, with the additional missed shots they're forcing? Or are the defensive board totals just better because the other team is missing more shots?

 

[nuraman00]

Also, I like these team based analysis more than the individual player analysis.

Because I don't think there's a player good enough on the team, to have a strong correlation with whether the Jazz win or lose, based on whether that player has a good game or not.

It's more of a team effort right now in losses and wins, IMO.

 

[MHSL82]

Why do we have a better record when losing the turnovers and points off turnovers battle? Aggressiveness?

This suggests that aggressiveness leads to more TOs, but more points.