Orioles 2024 Season

[UVA_Guy81]

Random thought of the day: "How much should we really blame the hitting coaches for the less-patient hitting approach in 2024?"

• 2023 Orioles: 0.255 / 0.321 / 0.421; 0.742 OPS (14th in the MLB); 0.320 wOBA (14th); 8.4% BB, 22.4% K, B/KK ratio = 0.37; 0.305 BABIP (9th in the MLB)
  
  
• 2024 Orioles: 0.250 / 0.315 / 0.435; 0.751 OPS (4th in the MLB); 0.324 wOBA (4th); 7.9% BB, 22.0% K, B/KK ratio = 0.36; 0.288 BABIP (20th in the MLB)

So the numbers seem to tell a different story:

• The 2024 approach is slightly more productive (from the standpoint of higher OPS and wOBA), but it did involve trading AVG and OBP for SLG to some extent
  
  
• Surprisingly, the numbers did not support the hypothesis that the more aggressive hitting approach resulted in turning walks into strikeouts in the attempt to hit for power. Instead, both walks and strikeout decreased, and it may actually be bad luck that's causing "un-clutch" hitting in 2024 (notice the drop in BABIP).
  
  
• For that matter, one area where the 2024 team did worse is the "base running runs above average" (BsR) category: The 2023 team was ranked 3rd (16.1), while the 2024 team was ranked 16th (-0.3). If we look at the details, this was partly due to Mateo's season-ending injury, plus most of the team being worse in this category in general. This might actually be a combination of being a slower team in general (due to having fewer faster players available and/or lingering minor injuries), plus possibly coaching.

I feel like the aggressive approach backfired. Too many guys having it in their mind to swing before the ball is at the plate led to horrible swings a lot of the time when the ball was nowhere near the zone. My thought is just go back to basics and just worry about contact, not the power swing. We had a lot of success with that the last week of the season and it led to wins.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

From MASN (emphasis added):

The Orioles are making multiple changes to their coaching staff following their elimination in the Wild Card series.

According to a source, the club isn’t bringing back co-hitting coach Ryan Fuller, bench coach Fredi González and major league coach José Hernández. The search begins for their replacements. [...]

If no other changes are made, the Orioles would bring back [co-hitting coach] Borgschulte, pitching coach Drew French, assistant pitching coach Mitch Plassmeyer, major league field cooerdinator/catching instructor Tim Cossins, third base coach/infield instructor Tony Mansolino and first base coach/outfield instructor Anthony Sanders.

The staff also includes major league development coach Grant Anders, offensive strategy coach Cody Asche - who basically served as a third hitting coach - and pitching strategy coach Ryan Klimek.

The Orioles haven't announced the changes and don't comment on personnel matters.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Borgschulte also leaving Orioles coaching staff

The changes coming to the Orioles coaching staff will be more extensive than anticipated earlier this week.The co-hitting coach arrangement with Ryan Fuller and Matt Borgschulte is completely gone. The Orioles aren’t retaining Fuller, and a source confirmed today that Borgschulte is returning to...

www.masnsports.com

Looks like the duel hitting coaches attempt failed. Hopefully they don't try it again and can get someone that can write the wrongs of the offense this past season.

 

[chillerdab]

They seemed to be great last season and shitty this season.

Not sure why they abandoned patience at the plate for hard contact above all.

 

[skinz2winz]

Moving forward...

How does this team improve pitching wise to be serious contenders? We know the hitting let us down, that's baseball and our stars will improve with better coaching and adjustments. We need arms to complete as well.

 

[skinz2winz]

Well, Yanks get Fried. Meanwhile, we are zeroing in on who? The Rogers trade was ridiculous as helped none. We cannot complete without much improved pitching. So what's the plan this off season? I have seen very little movement other than to let Anthony Taters walk for O'Neil, which is a head scratcher. Likely not in on Burnes. So now what, piece meal another rotation together? That's Elias' plan to compete?

 

[chillerdab]

O Neil supposedly hits lefties pretty well and walks a lot when he isnt injured. He’s also cheaper than Taters.

I guess Waltimore being moved in a bit will help O’Neil too.

I have no idea what the pitching plan is.

The going rate for star players has never been cheap and is not going to get cheaper. Fried got what he got and Burnes will get the same or more.

At thia point it isnt a surprise, and I think we’re all sick of Elias’s “liftoff” comments about payroll with no action.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Well, Yanks get Fried. Meanwhile, we are zeroing in on who? The Rogers trade was ridiculous as helped none. We cannot complete without much improved pitching. So what's the plan this off season? I have seen very little movement other than to let Anthony Taters walk for O'Neil, which is a head scratcher. Likely not in on Burnes. So now what, piece meal another rotation together? That's Elias' plan to compete?

I have no idea what the pitching plan is.

The going rate for star players has never been cheap and is not going to get cheaper. Fried got what he got and Burnes will get the same or more.

At this point it isn't a surprise, and I think we’re all sick of Elias’s “liftoff” comments about payroll with no action.

While it's not my preference, I wouldn't mind if the Orioles actually commits to the "2024 Detroit Tigers" strategy (using relay teams on a regular basis) for a whole season as a last-resort backup plan in the worst-case scenario where they fail to add any notable starter in free agency:

• Only Eflin and Rodriguez would be used as "traditional" starters.
  
  
• As I have mentioned previously, the #3-5 spots of the rotation would involve teams of two that include some combination of RHPs Kremer / Suárez / McDermott (plus maybe Brandon Young, or Bradish / Wells later in the season if they are healthy enough to return) and LHPs Rogers / Povich.
  
  
• The expectation is that each "co-starter" on a relay team would have a strict pitch limit of about 3 innings (to limit the "times through order" penalty while also avoiding overusing the bullpen). Ideally, each person in this role would be pitching 2-3 times every 10 games, for a total of about 100-120 innings per person throughout the regular season.

To put it another way, the idea is to replace the typical "traditional starters and short relievers" approach of constructing a pitching staff by spreading the workload around more evenly. While the main downside of this approach is a shorter bullpen, that might be tolerable based on the projected 2025 depth chart-- if they view some of the expected bullpen members (e.g. Bryan Baker) as expendable and are willing to replace them with converted #4/5 starter types who can actually handle the higher workload ("a pitching staff that mostly consists of long relievers," if you will).

 

[chillerdab]

Ooorrrrrrrr…. they could pony up the cash to get a true ace, which would limit bullpen use and almost guarantee a seasons worth of quality starts in 30 of the games played.

Even the Tigers had Skrubal every fifth game.

 

[skinz2winz]

Evoaldi 3 yrs $75m and we were not in on that? Cheap asses!

 

[skinz2winz]

While it's not my preference, I wouldn't mind if the Orioles actually commits to the "2024 Detroit Tigers" strategy (using relay teams on a regular basis) for a whole season as a last-resort backup plan in the worst-case scenario where they fail to add any notable starter in free agency:

• Only Eflin and Rodriguez would be used as "traditional" starters.
  
  
• As I have mentioned previously, the #3-5 spots of the rotation would involve teams of two that include some combination of RHPs Kremer / Suárez / McDermott (plus maybe Brandon Young, or Bradish / Wells later in the season if they are healthy enough to return) and LHPs Rogers / Povich.
  
  
• The expectation is that each "co-starter" on a relay team would have a strict pitch limit of about 3 innings (to limit the "times through order" penalty while also avoiding overusing the bullpen). Ideally, each person in this role would be pitching 2-3 times every 10 games, for a total of about 100-120 innings per person throughout the regular season.

To put it another way, the idea is to replace the typical "traditional starters and short relievers" approach of constructing a pitching staff by spreading the workload around more evenly. While the main downside of this approach is a shorter bullpen, that might be tolerable based on the projected 2025 depth chart-- if they view some of the expected bullpen members (e.g. Bryan Baker) as expendable and are willing to replace them with converted #4/5 starter types who can actually handle the higher workload ("a pitching staff that mostly consists of long relievers," if you will).

While I understand this approach, and may very well work to get through a season, not what I wanted with this current groups window of opportunity. Go get a Bonafide true ace to eat innings and lessen the bullpen burden. The O's will always be the O's. You cannot get a playoff series win without a very good 1-2-3. We have proven that 2 consecutive years. Guy's like Gunnar are watching our approach each off season. Piece Mealing a rotation will not work.

 

[hattersgonnahate]

Ooorrrrrrrr…. they could pony up the cash to get a true ace, which would limit bullpen use and almost guarantee a seasons worth of quality starts in 30 of the games played.

Even the Tigers had Skrubal every fifth game.

While I understand this approach, and may very well work to get through a season, not what I wanted with this current groups window of opportunity. Go get a Bonafide true ace to eat innings and lessen the bullpen burden. The O's will always be the O's. You cannot get a playoff series win without a very good 1-2-3. We have proven that 2 consecutive years. Guy's like Gunnar are watching our approach each off season. Piece Mealing a rotation will not work.

Agreed that signing a "real" ace and better pitchers in general would be ideal, of course... I am just being realistically pessimistic until the new ownership shows that it will actually be less passive in free agency, especially on the pitching side:

That being said, I'd like to challenge the assumption that a strong rotation is absolutely necessary in the playoffs: History might suggest this to be the case most of the time, but the higher frequency of rest days in the postseason should theoretically be an equalizer for teams that are willing to "burn the bullpen often," if that's what it takes to reduce the other team's advantage in the starting rotation.

• Should a team consider going to the extreme of "zero starters" by having every pitcher operate as short relievers in the postseason? Obviously not, as the math doesn't add up (needing to pitch ~7 times for one inning each per 10 games would require everyone to pitch on consecutive days often).
  
  
• But what about the intermediate approach of "a pitching staff of long relievers"? Needing to pitch up to 3 times for ~3 innings each per 10 games suddenly looks sustainable on paper, as there's a rest day after every 2-3 games. So the crux of the question is whether your "non-ace" pitchers on the relay team can pitch like an ace if limited to no more than three innings per outing (for which there is little data to make the argument either way-- but if this is the case, perhaps the "Moneyball" strategy is to prioritize hitting over pitching when forced to choose between the two?)

 

[skinz2winz]

Agreed that signing a "real" ace and better pitchers in general would be ideal, of course... I am just being realistically pessimistic until the new ownership shows that it will actually be less passive in free agency, especially on the pitching side:

That being said, I'd like to challenge the assumption that a strong rotation is absolutely necessary in the playoffs: History might suggest this to be the case most of the time, but the higher frequency of rest days in the postseason should theoretically be an equalizer for teams that are willing to "burn the bullpen often," if that's what it takes to reduce the other team's advantage in the starting rotation.

• Should a team consider going to the extreme of "zero starters" by having every pitcher operate as short relievers in the postseason? Obviously not, as the math doesn't add up (needing to pitch ~7 times for one inning each per 10 games would require everyone to pitch on consecutive days often).
  
  
• But what about the intermediate approach of "a pitching staff of long relievers"? Needing to pitch up to 3 times for ~3 innings each per 10 games suddenly looks sustainable on paper, as there's a rest day after every 2-3 games. So the crux of the question is whether your "non-ace" pitchers on the relay team can pitch like an ace if limited to no more than three innings per outing (for which there is little data to make the argument either way-- but if this is the case, perhaps the "Moneyball" strategy is to prioritize hitting over pitching when forced to choose between the two?)

We missed out on Crochet!

 

[skinz2winz]

MSN

 

[skinz2winz]

Elias not living up to the billing right now. Either he has been told NOT to spend or he is not willing thus, wasting the current talent on this team.

 

[UVA_Guy81]

Elias not living up to the billing right now. Either he has been told NOT to spend or he is not willing thus, wasting the current talent on this team.

I'm beginning to wonder if his ego is getting in the way and he refuses to sign top tier free agents because he wants his plan of building a team of homegrown players to work.