Official Mariners arm-chair GM offseason thread 2018-2019

[Tapey]

Stings though, he's so young and coulda been here closing for a long time... Who are we getting in return exactly, I still don't know, Jay Bruce is the only one I know of...

6 posts up

 

[Podunkparte]

Stud 5 tool prospect
Big time RHP prospect
100+ mph kid who needs to find his control (Same was said about a guy named Johnson)
Jay Bruce
Some shitty pen piece

 

[Tapey]

Stud 5 tool prospect
Big time RHP prospect
100+ mph kid who needs to find his control (Same was said about a guy named Johnson)
Jay Bruce
Some shitty pen piece

And dont have to pay all of canos contract

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

6 posts up

Ah just noticed that...

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Stud 5 tool prospect
Big time RHP prospect
100+ mph kid who needs to find his control (Same was said about a guy named Johnson)
Jay Bruce
Some shitty pen piece

Man, ok, Jay Bruce is ok, not great lately, but ok .. but the rest I guess we hold our breath and hope they pan out...

 

[Podunkparte]

Man, ok, Jay Bruce is ok, not great lately, but ok .. but the rest I guess we hold our breath and hope they pan out...

Jay Bruce is a throwaway. We're taking him off the Mets hands like they're taking Cano off of ours. The 3 kids are the pieces to watch for the next 2 years.

Add them to the prospects we got for Paxton, and what should be coming when Segura is dealt, our farm system is about to look a million times better than it did for the last few years.

 

[Tapey]

Man, ok, Jay Bruce is ok, not great lately, but ok .. but the rest I guess we hold our breath and hope they pan out...

Oh yea for sure. I'm hearing the outfielder we got is drawing comps to Bryce Harper which doesnt mean much but is good to hear

 

[ulmax]

Agreed Sixto has to be involved cause JP is starting to remind me of Dom Brown. Supposed to be the crown jewel but never panned out.

the mariners dont really need
anything else phili has
i would think pivetta or velasquez
before sixto...cuz that is there
future
and pivetta is from victoria B.C.

and they are looking to add a free agent LHP.

maybe corbin or morgan. or both

 

[ulmax]

im down to mariners needs
R/R 2b
ss..after trading segura
if they get crawford..then one more ss
ace pitcher
#4 of
one more catcher

AAA
ace..prob free agent
maybe phelps..???

AA
3b

some prospects could be added
in other places but..those seem
to be needs

 

[ulmax]

gerson bautist is better than i gave
him credit for
he is a strike out pitcher..who has not thrown a lot of innings
was a starter the first two years
then turned into..closer
not fabulous era..but we will see

 

[Mariners_44]

Man , losing Diaz though, @#$%^@$ He only saved 57 games outta 61 tries, no big deal ... 1.96 ERA, 0.79 Whip, 124 strikeouts to 17 walks... I hate the way the M's always try to rebuild by getting ride of good young talent... M's just spin there wheels all the dam time...

On the flip side, how do you feel about Felix still being here? I ask because he’s an example of holding onto a blue chip star through years when you have no chance and what the end result looks like. Yeah we got to have Felix through his peak that included some filthy work on the mound, but if Jack Z knew how to build an organization we would have shipped him out and brought back prospects that could have kept us from being in the position we are now in. A lot of criticism gets thrown JeDi’s way, but I love what he’s doing. We’ll truly see if he has even a clue on player evaluation when these guys turn the corner in a few years, but the fact that they are finally tearing it down gives me hope.

 

[PolarVortex]

Big Money Players still on team - remaining years under contract - money still owed - % chance of being traded this winter:

Segura, 4 years/$60.4 mill, 70%. Segura is the best remaining trade chip (unless you count Haniger). Segura should be able to be traded for decent prospects without having to eat any of his salary. His salary is team friendly in today's market.

Leake, 2 years/$27 mill, 50%. Leake, in a strictly cash dump, would not return any prospect of value but the team probably would not have to eat any of his salary.

Bruce, 2 years/$28 mill, 40%. Probably have to eat $8-12 million of remaining money owed. Strictly a cash dump. He's still only 32 years old on opening day and prior to last season he was coming off of a 2-year run that netted 69 homeruns, 200 RBI and a 122 OPS. So, someone might take a $20 million gamble on him.

Gordon, 2 years/$28.1 mill, 35%. His market is extremely limited (maybe 3-4 teams) and the teams looking for a second baseman also have Schoop and Dozier available to them.

Seager, 3 years/$58.5 mill, 15%. Eat $25 million minimum. Nothing of value in return. There is a stronger market for 3rd baseman than 2nd baseman but Seager is just owed too damn much money when compared to what he offers.

Nicasio, 1 year/$9.25 mill, 10%. Eat $4 million. Nicasio is just one year removed from being a pretty good setup guy. Someone may take a chance on him.

Felix, 1 year/$27.85 mill, 0%. I honestly question if he can come out of spring training with a healthy arm and pitch at all in 2019. Mariners won't need much of an excuse to DL him. But who knows? If he is serious about extending his career beyond 2019, this is the season to put up or shut up.

Swarzak, 1 year/$8.5 mill, 0%. Yeah, we are stuck with him and I think he probably gets cut in spring training.

 

[PolarVortex]

Big Money Players still on team - remaining years under contract - money still owed - % chance of being traded this winter:

Segura, 4 years/$60.4 mill, 70%. Segura is the best remaining trade chip (unless you count Haniger). Segura should be able to be traded for decent prospects without having to eat any of his salary. His salary is team friendly in today's market.

Leake, 2 years/$27 mill, 50%. Leake, in a strictly cash dump, would not return any prospect of value but the team probably would not have to eat any of his salary.

Bruce, 2 years/$28 mill, 40%. Probably have to eat $8-12 million of remaining money owed. Strictly a cash dump. He's still only 32 years old on opening day and prior to last season he was coming off of a 2-year run that netted 69 homeruns, 200 RBI and a 122 OPS. So, someone might take a $20 million gamble on him.

Gordon, 2 years/$28.1 mill, 35%. His market is extremely limited (maybe 3-4 teams) and the teams looking for a second baseman also have Schoop and Dozier available to them.

Seager, 3 years/$58.5 mill, 15%. Eat $25 million minimum. Nothing of value in return. There is a stronger market for 3rd baseman than 2nd baseman but Seager is just owed too damn much money when compared to what he offers.

Nicasio, 1 year/$9.25 mill, 10%. Eat $4 million. Nicasio is just one year removed from being a pretty good setup guy. Someone may take a chance on him.

Felix, 1 year/$27.85 mill, 0%. I honestly question if he can come out of spring training with a healthy arm and pitch at all in 2019. Mariners won't need much of an excuse to DL him. But who knows? If he is serious about extending his career beyond 2019, this is the season to put up or shut up.

Swarzak, 1 year/$8.5 mill, 0%. Yeah, we are stuck with him and I think he probably gets cut in spring training.

These 8 guys represent $121.5 million toward the 2019 payroll. In 2020 it will drop to $75.9 million. In 2021 it will further drop to $34.5 million.

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

On the flip side, how do you feel about Felix still being here? I ask because he’s an example of holding onto a blue chip star through years when you have no chance and what the end result looks like. Yeah we got to have Felix through his peak that included some filthy work on the mound, but if Jack Z knew how to build an organization we would have shipped him out and brought back prospects that could have kept us from being in the position we are now in. A lot of criticism gets thrown JeDi’s way, but I love what he’s doing. We’ll truly see if he has even a clue on player evaluation when these guys turn the corner in a few years, but the fact that they are finally tearing it down gives me hope.

I'm with you. I wanted to trade Felix back in 2013-14 when I moved to Chicago. That trade was actually a possibility and we would've gotten a King's ransom (no pun intended). I was told I was overreacting, and an idiot on this forum (too long ago to remember the couple people that said that).

Diaz is an absolute stud, but Seattle needs a LOT more tools than an elite closer. Seattle basically needs a full rebuild at this point. A buddy of mine who is MUCH more baseball knowledgeable than me thought it was a good trade for both sides. Mets need to win now and Cano/Diaz can help highly in that regard, and the Ms need to just start over.

Point being, if it didn't work out last year, it's not going to work with the same crew next year. Sadly what this means for Ms fans is we likely have another 2-4 years of no playoffs, likely going 20+ years into no playoffs, thus cementing the longest playoff streak in US major sports. Hopefully we can hit on the prospects we got and some of the draft picks. I feel like we're due, but the Ms run one of the worst front offices in US major sport history.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

On the flip side, how do you feel about Felix still being here? I ask because he’s an example of holding onto a blue chip star through years when you have no chance and what the end result looks like. Yeah we got to have Felix through his peak that included some filthy work on the mound, but if Jack Z knew how to build an organization we would have shipped him out and brought back prospects that could have kept us from being in the position we are now in. A lot of criticism gets thrown JeDi’s way, but I love what he’s doing. We’ll truly see if he has even a clue on player evaluation when these guys turn the corner in a few years, but the fact that they are finally tearing it down gives me hope.

We shouldn’t have to always trade for prospects though, we should have our own prospects within our system, especially considering we’ve been drafting high for the last 17 years ... That’s the frustrating part... I’m ok with an occasional trade to improve the team but $@&&&@, this is all the Mariners have done over the decades and it’s failed miserably... I’ll try to be optimistic, but it’s tough with this franchise...

 

[seahawksfan234]

it's okay

it really is

i just wish we had an org that could develop talent

this is my most positive post on here in at least a year

Wow, I've never seen this much optimism from you.

Are you okay?

 

[Sharkonabicycle]

We shouldn’t have to always trade for prospects though, we should have our own prospects within our system, especially considering we’ve been drafting high for the last 17 years ... That’s the frustrating part... I’m ok with an occasional trade to improve the team but $@&&&@, this is all the Mariners have done over the decades and it’s failed miserably... I’ll try to be optimistic, but it’s tough with this franchise...

I mean that's fair boogs... but end of day you have to know where your value is, and as of this point that includes selling Diaz high and HOPEFULLY hitting on some prospects. If we can't trade for good prospects or draft good players than we're fucked regardless, because not many teams (including all sports) have spent huge money or traded for successful players and built a winning team with it. Seattle pre-trade was by far the worst farm system in the majors. It was pretty sad. And Cano/Cruz/Seager are not getting younger.

Diaz was about the only promising thing we had maybe outside of Haniger/Gamel. Either way you're not building a championship team off those 3 pieces alone (okay granted Seager/Segura are solid), especially not with the worst farm system in the MLB. Diaz is sadly the most expendable with an arm that likely has limited time thanks to a 100+ MPH FBall being his core pitch, and his role as a closer. Yes over 55+ saves.... he's probably not going to see that on a better team that can actually generate more than 1-2 runs per game. If I recall Seattle was leading the MLB in wins by less than one run... and then it all fell apart majorly post all star.

All said, it is frustrating. I would LOVE to see the Mariners get new ownership but Allen is dead and Bezos doesn't seem to give two fucks about sports.

 

[seahawksfan234]

Big Money Players still on team - remaining years under contract - money still owed - % chance of being traded this winter:

Segura, 4 years/$60.4 mill, 70%. Segura is the best remaining trade chip (unless you count Haniger). Segura should be able to be traded for decent prospects without having to eat any of his salary. His salary is team friendly in today's market.

Leake, 2 years/$27 mill, 50%. Leake, in a strictly cash dump, would not return any prospect of value but the team probably would not have to eat any of his salary.

Bruce, 2 years/$28 mill, 40%. Probably have to eat $8-12 million of remaining money owed. Strictly a cash dump. He's still only 32 years old on opening day and prior to last season he was coming off of a 2-year run that netted 69 homeruns, 200 RBI and a 122 OPS. So, someone might take a $20 million gamble on him.

Gordon, 2 years/$28.1 mill, 35%. His market is extremely limited (maybe 3-4 teams) and the teams looking for a second baseman also have Schoop and Dozier available to them.

Seager, 3 years/$58.5 mill, 15%. Eat $25 million minimum. Nothing of value in return. There is a stronger market for 3rd baseman than 2nd baseman but Seager is just owed too damn much money when compared to what he offers.

Nicasio, 1 year/$9.25 mill, 10%. Eat $4 million. Nicasio is just one year removed from being a pretty good setup guy. Someone may take a chance on him.

Felix, 1 year/$27.85 mill, 0%. I honestly question if he can come out of spring training with a healthy arm and pitch at all in 2019. Mariners won't need much of an excuse to DL him. But who knows? If he is serious about extending his career beyond 2019, this is the season to put up or shut up.

Swarzak, 1 year/$8.5 mill, 0%. Yeah, we are stuck with him and I think he probably gets cut in spring training.

Good post.

I think when it comes to Bruce, the Mariners might be better off holding on to him and seeing if he has anything left in the tank. If he can somehow rebound in the first half of 2019, we could probably land something actually useful for him without having to eat too much of his contract. It's wishful thinking, but it wouldn't be too far-fetched to think he could rebound. He has done it before in his career.

I still like the idea of pooling Leake and Segura to the Padres. Obviously not for Myers straight up, but the Padres have an incredibly deep farm system the Mariners could probably get some value from. I think Leake has a bit more value than you give him credit for. He's nothing special, but he's an incredibly consistent and reliable #3 pitcher who comes at a pretty reasonable price.

I'm a bit more optimistic about Dee Gordon than you are. He can play SS or 2B and before he got hurt, he was still a terror on the bases. My biggest concern is that speed doesn't age well.

Seager won't go anywhere. His contract is too awful relative to his steady regression in 2017 and 2016 after a career year in 2015. Best case scenario he comes out on fire next year and someone is willing to take a flier on him.

I agree on Swarzak, but hopefully he somehow pitches well and we could get a bag of balls for him at some point.

 

[seahawksfan234]

These 8 guys represent $121.5 million toward the 2019 payroll. In 2020 it will drop to $75.9 million. In 2021 it will further drop to $34.5 million.

Not going to lie it's a huge relief to finally be able to look to the future and not have to think about the fact that we'd be paying Robinson Cano $24m when he is 40 going on 41 years old. Or having to pay Felix $27m a year when he probably shouldn't even be pitching at the major league level anymore.

 

[seahawksfan234]

We shouldn’t have to always trade for prospects though, we should have our own prospects within our system, especially considering we’ve been drafting high for the last 17 years ... That’s the frustrating part... I’m ok with an occasional trade to improve the team but $@&&&@, this is all the Mariners have done over the decades and it’s failed miserably... I’ll try to be optimistic, but it’s tough with this franchise...

We shouldn't, but unfortunately that's the situation we're in right now.

Over the years I don't think the Mariners have actually fully committed to rebuilding like they are right now.

The Mariners have very quickly gone from having the worst farm system hands down in baseball to having a pretty solid one that is going to get even better if the Mariners move Segura.

Without looking back, I don't think we've had a farm system this strong in the last 10 years.