Southern9er
Refugee
You're right....I made an exaggerated statement when saying the ONLY reason nobody has taken him out was because there's nothing worthwhile to grab. I caught too that after I posted it. And you're right that China would of course have something to say about it.....but that said, NK would have been quickly defeated in the 50s without Chinese involvement and probably would again after a short bloodbath.
Excellent piece on this from a few years ago, a war game run on NK and documented:
North Korea: The War Game - Magazine - The Atlantic
Great read...I think the estimates are spot on; however, characterizing it as a short blood bath is not a good descriptor. A war with Korea will have violence that we have not seen since fighting the Japanese in the Pacific.
That is what concerns everyone; what will China do? Last time they thought MacAthur got too far north tens of thousands of Chinese troops came south. China is different now...has much more to lose and really doesn't want a huge fight on the peninsula, their interests are aimed at Taiwan and the Spratly Islands, but they aren't ready for that yet.
Every weapon they have in their arsenal, they will use...and only China has a chance of stopping that, which would likely occur in the form of assistance if the NORKS remain conventional in their warfare. Their air defenses are older Soviet/Russian designed systems with significant upgrades and their employment in mountainous terrain is unique and dangerous. Consider what they've learned from Iraq and AFG...it will be a blood bath, but short is only defined by the war gamers and not the people fighting and living in those conditions. The problem with war gaming is they are very inaccurate at predicting one critical thing...the desire of a man to fight.
The poor economy of NORK, their isolation, and hatred of America makes them a perfect candidate for selling their nuclear, biological, or chemical wep technology to a terrorist tier. But the fear that the US would be able to finger print it right back to them, may be enough for them to want to maintain the status quo. Remember all they want is for the party to remain in power and enjoy their privileges, they really have no concern for economic growth.