NON-EXCLUSIVE FRANCHISE TAG

[RobBase]

Common sense, mostly.

Ya see I think common sense backs me up, not the what if doomsday scenarios about Suh wanting to screw us over for some reason. It's subjective.

 

[Naughtymax]

???? In play?? Roughly $27m is what Suh would be paid. That's 120% of his 2014 cap hit. That's how it's calculated.

We have restructured his original contract I believe three times. The result is the $9.7m in dead money that applies next year. That money can not be deferred. It will hit next year no matter what. A new contract for Suh changes nothing on that hitting in 2015.

Agree - that's what I was trying to say. We're deciding whether to commit another $27MM to the guy.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

What do the numbers actually say??

Ya see I think common sense backs me up, not the what if doomsday scenarios about Suh wanting to screw us over for some reason. It's subjective.

The doomsday scenario is if he actually were to sign the franchise tag. Do you believe the two sides could come to an agreement that we will tag him with the intent of continuing negotiations while he promises that he won't sign the offer while that happens? Sorry, but I laugh at the very premise of that type of blind faith.

If he signs it this team is plenty fucked. You choose to take Mayhew at his word when the numbers themselves actually say its almost impossible to make happen. Look them over for yourself and then form an opinion. It's simple math, including the restructures you want.

You just don't want to engage in that conversation and would rather take Mayhew at his word. The simple fact is that the Lions "could" find the room to squeeze in a tag hit on Suh. But you would not believe what it would take, and I bet that if you did while I doubt you would change your mind on using the tag if it came to that I bet you would soften your stance and see exactly why I say your deadline if March 2.

These are my favorite conversations of the offseason. Posters want to know exactly where we do stand, not just with Suh but what we could possibly do in FA. That's pretty important to us contending next year. So together let's all find the actual $ to make it happen. Start by everyone (including you Swarm) telling us who you would cut?

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

^^^ DR. Evil-er... My assumption, regarding your post, would probably vary depending on Suh being tagged or extended.


MY cuts would be Bush, Tully (although that leaves the LB corp thin), T. Lewis, Bentley and Carey. J. Jones might be another one but only if DE George Johnson was re-signed. I actually like Jones and knowing that DE's Devin Taylor and Larry Webster are still developing, I might hesitate at Jones' dismissal. Now the Draft might change that thought process also. (I've got my eyes on you KTY DE Alvin "BUD" Dupree).

 

[Naughtymax]

My cuts:

Tulloch - save $3.2MM on cap, $2.6MM dead money.
Ryan Broyles - save $900k, $300k dead money
Corey Fuller - save $510k, no dead money

Potentially a couple more in camp depending on performance, but that's all that jumps out at me. I don't hate Bush enough to cut him for $1.7MM savings unless I have a home for the money that is an upgrade.

With that, we'd have $118MM committed next year to 38 players. Project a $138-$141MM cap next year (per NFL will be between $138MM and $141MM) and you have $20-$23MM of space. And you need $2MM of that for rookie salaries. Not quite $27MM.

So, in order to tag Suh without renegotiating some of the big contracts we'd have to cut and further mortgage the future as follows, all post June first:

Steven Tulloch - $4.5MM
Reggie Bush - $3.5MM
Brandon Pettigrew - $2.8MM
Broyles - $900k
Fuller - $400k

That'd do it, but to tag Suh you must be willing to push yet more of that money into the future by using post-June first cuts. If trying to make it all work this year without mortgaging the future, then we need to cut:

Tulloch - $3.2
Bush - $1.7
Broyles - $0.9
Fuller - $0.5
Pettigrew - $0.8
Joique Bell - $1.5
and maybe if the cap is at $138MM:
Ihedigbo - $1.6
Don Carey - $0.6
Travis Lewis - $0.6

Ow. I'd never cut Jones - a steal at his current salary. This is what Evil-er is saying. The math doesn't work without gutting the team.

 

[Naughtymax]

Oh, and even if we keep all 7 of our picks we'd only have 39 players under contract. We'd really have to cut Jones and another player and sign a bunch of scrubs to get to 51.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Max..... I too like Jones but Evil-er's example shows this board how tough it would be to tag Suh. Gutting the team is NOT Going To Work. If DE George Johnson was re-signed, I might not worry so much about J. Jones but you're absolutely right in that J. Jones is a steal at his current salary.


Cutting Fuller isn't really conducive, IMO. He only had 1 1/2 years as a WR at Vir Tech, after coming from their Tract Team. He is still learning and could provide value. He cut Fuller and all you'll do is replace him with a rookie who is less experience than he is, or you bring in a Vet (for the Vet minimum and it costs you more than his 510k alleged savings). 1 of Broyles or Fuller need to stay, JMHO.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Bush had another injury plagued year and cutting him this year may not be the solve all. He knows the system and cutting him in 2016 is actually far more feasible 2015 dead $ 3,553,833 savings 1,722,058 ............. or a 2016 cut dead $ 1,779,492 savings 4,000,000..... big difference IMO and he should bounce back in 2015.... He usually does. Letting Bush go may turn into a Darren Sproles adventure that New Orleans went through by not having him, even though Sproles had more versatility with the Saints.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Sooooooo, in another words Tagging Suh pretty much kills this team. I wonder how many actually went through all the scenarios and what if's, speaking from a fiscal perspective.


We are already lacking (2) starting DT's, if Suh doesn't get tagged or re-sign, (1) starting LG, (1) PK, (1) FB, (1) starting caliber #2 CB, there's not much in talent as far as depth for the O-Line (need four OT's, three OG's, 1 OC and 1 OC/OG combo for a roster). Garrett Reynolds need not apply. His best play of the year was the strip on Demarcus Lawrence. Rodney Austin has done very little. Reserve OG/OC Darren Keyton has done what to date ?


People are already bitching about VanNoy in not knowing if he can contribute, so then we have to cut the teams leading Tackler from 2010 thru 2013, Tully, which would further deplete the LB corp. Maybe re-sign Bynes. That would give us (4) LB's in Levy, Whitehead, VanNoy and Bynes. All this with cutting Tully and T. Lewis.


Bentley and Carey are replaceable IMO. Hopefully Lawson recovers in time for OTA's or June Mini-camp. I want to see more of Seisay this year and hope that he develops. Could use a FA CB and draft another, IMO.


TAGGIN SUH WOULD BE THE WORSE THING THIS TEAM CAN DO, IMHO.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

yeah, pretty much what I expected regarding responses from "The Tag Suh Crew at any expense"


2 hours and 25 minutes later and two responses.... and not from anyone in the Tag Suh Crew !

 

[jayfan]

As usual I'm on an island alone here. I already explained this. Maybe you missed the post. IMO maybe they'll need to do some restructuring with other players to get the cap where they need it to be to sign Suh, and if they can't do that by March 2, then they'll tag him and get to work on a new contract.

Mayhew said Suh wants to play here. Why you guys keep ignoring that fact idk.

I just think the fact that Suh hired a new agent in the off-season and chose not to sign an extension in the off-season leaves everyone doubting whether its true. And the fact that Mayhew said it is uninspiring.

 

[Dr. Evil-er]

Who needs to be cut??

So at this point we are potentially discussing cuts on Tulloch, Bush, T. Lewis, Bentley, Carey, J. Jones, Broyles, and Fuller.

It's important to keep in mind that cutting guys like T. Lewis, Fuller, Carey, Broyles, and even Bentley won't amount to much of a savings. Even if each guy were replaced by a late rd pick or even an UDFA what comes off of their relatively minimal cost is replaced by a player who will cost $500k. For those five guys you are probably looking at a savings thats around maybe $1.5m-$2m (I would have to look at the numbers for each to be sure).

With regards to the post June 1 cuts keep in mind that teams must always be cap compliant and only 2 players per team are allowed to be designated now as post June 1 cuts. Since this discussion is about the viability of tagging Suh, which would need to be done by March 10 we only get the benefit of the post June 1 cuts on two players. So those would be the ones that have the most dead $ reducing the savings on the player cut. For the current list that is going to be Tulloch and Bush.

Does anyone else have players they want to cut before we settle on the final list we will use?

My cuts are a shorter list then most, with only Tulloch and Broyles as definites. However, if its a matter of trying to find room to tag Suh then guys like Jones and Bush would need to be included. I would be fine with Bentley going bye bye as well. For the record I am torn on Bush but wouldn't be upset if he was cut but think cutting Jones is a terrible idea.

 

[Naughtymax]

The math is painful, no question. The only realistic path is restructuring Calvin or Stafford's deal, which is in the long term a bad idea. If they're going to go for broke, restructure now, sign a couple impact free agents, and then make your pitch to Suh to sign or not sign with a contender.

Using the tag always was, still is, and will be an extremely poor choice.

 

[Naughtymax]

And they can always sign UDFA rookies to replace veterans for a full $100k savings per position based on rookie vs veteran minimum. If they tag Suh they'll need about 10 of these players to fill out the roster, at least one of whom will be forced to start a game or more with typical NFL injuries.

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

I'm still sticking with early cuts being


Name..................Dead $.......................Savings
Tulloch................2,600.000...................3,200,000 (most savings individually)
Broyles...................278,818.....................891,614 (he didn't get many reps this yr., why ?)
Bentley...................137,278.....................680,000 (he's oft injured and a PI or DH waiting)
T. Lewis....................14,793.....................660,000 (no real savings, he's only ST player)
this is only 5,431,614 in savings before finding replacements for them.


Bush and J. Jones would be my only possible post June 1 Cuts. I highly doubt I would cut either this year (depends on draft or if they replace with FA's).


Carey is actually cheaper to keep as a depth player, for now, in alignment with the top 51 dollars. If we draft a replacement for him, the savings would be minimal as you pointed out and also the same goes with Lewis, Bentley and Broyles.

 

[TwoCents22]

No offense to any of you guys, but nobody here knows the possible maneuverability of the cap better than Mayhew, whether you like him or not. To sit here and estimate that we will have to sign 10 UDFA, or not be able to sign anyone else is ridiculous.

Mayhew on the cap if Suh is franchised: "if we decide to franchise him, we'll have room". Also said the Lions will be able to "do some things in free agency" whether the tag Suh or not.

I'm not worried about them cutting players not named Levy, Quinn, Ziggy, Slay, Calvin, Stafford, Tate, Warford, or Reiff. Until you guys can prove we have to start letting guys go that were/are actually important to our success, I'm still ok with tagging Suh as a last resort.

 

[Naughtymax]

OK, I amend it to "If Suh tagged and we don't restructure a bunch of existing dollars out into the future and make the team less competitive in the long term, then we have to sign 10 UDFA."

 

[Gulf of Brazil]

Yep, "we'll have room"-Mayhew...... uhhh ha... it's called kick the fuckin' can down the road AGAIN.
Yep, "will be able to do some things in FA"- Mayhew....uhhh ha... sign bottom tier FA's ?


It's either re-structures on Megatron, Stafford, Tate and Quinn to make room for tagging/signing Suh or a combo of large savings cuts and re-structures.


You gotta find a lot of $$ somewhere in order to extend or tag Suh.


That's fact


Mayhew making it sound easy because he and Lewand will do exactly what they're known for. Stupid ass re-structures.

 

[Naughtymax]

this doesn't make me happy, but it does make clear the situation. Evil-er has been saying it for a month and the detail supports his position. If you want to refute the detail, say how.

 

[TwoCents22]

OK, I amend it to "If Suh tagged and we don't restructure a bunch of existing dollars out into the future and make the team less competitive in the long term, then we have to sign 10 UDFA."

Again, pure speculation on your part. No way we have 10 UDFA's from this draft on our roster at any point during 2015. You know you wouldn't bet that.

Like I said, if we have to cut anybody relevant, please show me, and I'll agree with you. But guys like Tulloch and Bush, who are the best players I've heard as possible cuts, are not going to be huge losses. If you'd rather have them over Suh, I'd say please go rewatch the Cowboys game and tell me how we don't get blown out without Suh.