NL Central thread

[navamind]

it's pretty crazy how pat the Cubs have stood this offseason.

 

[Myles]

it's pretty crazy how pat the Cubs have stood this offseason.

Cardinals too.

 

[navamind]

Cardinals too.

Them too. They've done little if anything to improve what was a pretty mediocre lineup last year. I do think Carpenter and Goldy will improve (though their projections still aren't great). If Molina sustains his LD% and hard contact rate he could be in for a better year (or at least a higher BABIP), but that's hard to bank on for a catcher in his late 30's.

The non-Pirates teams all look to project to around 80-90 wins. You'd think every win you can add would be crucial.

 

[tomcat1]

Them too. They've done little if anything to improve what was a pretty mediocre lineup last year. I do think Carpenter and Goldy will improve (though their projections still aren't great). If Molina sustains his LD% and hard contact rate he could be in for a better year (or at least a higher BABIP), but that's hard to bank on for a catcher in his late 30's.

The non-Pirates teams all look to project to around 80-90 wins. You'd think every win you can add would be crucial.

I think the Cardinals are banking on trying to improve from within their own organization by hoping that C. Martinez can become a good starting pitcher once again, hoping that Reyes can perform well in relief, and hoping that several top prospect outfielders will finally arrive. I know that's a lot of hopes and I hope it works.

 

[Clayton]

Them too. They've done little if anything to improve what was a pretty mediocre lineup last year. I do think Carpenter and Goldy will improve (though their projections still aren't great). If Molina sustains his LD% and hard contact rate he could be in for a better year (or at least a higher BABIP), but that's hard to bank on for a catcher in his late 30's.

The non-Pirates teams all look to project to around 80-90 wins. You'd think every win you can add would be crucial.

Goldy I could see improving but I think the Jose Martinez trade tipped the Cardinals hand.

They're giving the veterans (carp, molina, etc) one last run in case there is anything left in the tank but the focus is going to be on bringing up prospects and solidifying the pitching staff. Likely some of the veterans will still be decent and some will fall off a cliff and if their pitching is there then I'd imagine they'll be buyers before the trade deadline.

Moz's strategy the past couple of seasons:

1. Get the best pitching
2. Get better on defense
3. Get worse on offense
4. ????
5. Profit

 

[navamind]

here's the ZiPS projections for all five teams:

2020 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

2020 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

2020 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

2020 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

2020 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

 

[Clayton]

here's the ZiPS projections for all five teams:

2020 ZiPS Projections: Chicago Cubs

2020 ZiPS Projections: Cincinnati Reds

2020 ZiPS Projections: Milwaukee Brewers

2020 ZiPS Projections: Pittsburgh Pirates

2020 ZiPS Projections: St. Louis Cardinals

Zips is pretty conservative on the Cardinals pitching and thats understandable. If the pitching is what they think it is then this is a rebuilding year where the Cardinals bring up their prospects. I think thats a likely scenario but if they get anything at all out of Carlos Martinez or Alex Reyes then they should outperform those metrics. I do get the cynicism towards that idea, though.

 

[navamind]

Zips is pretty conservative on the Cardinals pitching and thats understandable. If the pitching is what they think it is then this is a rebuilding year where the Cardinals bring up their prospects. I think thats a likely scenario but if they get anything at all out of Carlos Martinez or Alex Reyes then they should outperform those metrics. I do get the cynicism towards that idea, though.

it's worth noting that Martinez is projected as a reliever and Alex Reyes has barely pitched at all the last four seasons, so I don't think it's surprising at all that ZiPS is bearish on him. If Martinez is healthy, he should be a huge boon for that rotation. Hudson had a strong rookie year but while he has a very good ground ball rate, he's struggled with walks. Hopefully he can cut down on them. Mikolas looks pretty solid and Flaherty should be a Cy Young contender.

I don't think ZiPS has any of the four teams really projected for much WAR than any of the others. Eyeballing it my guess is the Cubs or Cards are the "favorites" but even the Cubs havesome uncertainty in the rotation and there's not a lot of depth. Which makes those two standing pat this offseason pretty baffling.

And most projections are usually going to be on the conservative side.

 

[BrockForBroglio]

I agree! The Reds have had a great offseason on paper but with that said I would love to have Bryant playing 3rd base for us rather than Carpenter even though I doubt this will happen.

This like the Arenado rumors. The STL top guys, Mo and others, don't have the balls to pull this off. I knoee they did the Goldy thing, but seems they are so in on Carp being the third baseman for the next two years.

 

[BrockForBroglio]

The funniest thing I read recently was that you definately know that STL wasn't stealing signs. If they were why did Bader swing at so many pitches 3 inches outside and in the dirt.

 

[Clayton]

The funniest thing I read recently was that you definately know that STL wasn't stealing signs. If they were why did Bader swing at so many pitches 3 inches outside and in the dirt.

Dang.

Bader in particular is probably going to be the barometer for this team. If they can get anything from him offensively then that would be so huge to the lineup. If he struggles again then Id be pretty stunned if this team made the playoffs without some moves being made.

 

[tomcat1]

Goldy I could see improving but I think the Jose Martinez trade tipped the Cardinals hand.

They're giving the veterans (carp, molina, etc) one last run in case there is anything left in the tank but the focus is going to be on bringing up prospects and solidifying the pitching staff. Likely some of the veterans will still be decent and some will fall off a cliff and if their pitching is there then I'd imagine they'll be buyers before the trade deadline.

Moz's strategy the past couple of seasons:

1. Get the best pitching
2. Get better on defense
3. Get worse on offense
4. ????
5. Profit

Clayton my friend, J. Martinez would not have been dealt if the Cardinals didn't believe they have two or three hot prospects who are outfielders who are not ready to take the next step into MLB. Personally, I think at least two of the three are the real deal but it will take a long season to find out. I rarely pay much attention to spring training but this year I will be glued to it.

GO REDBIRDS!

 

[tomcat1]

it's worth noting that Martinez is projected as a reliever and Alex Reyes has barely pitched at all the last four seasons, so I don't think it's surprising at all that ZiPS is bearish on him. If Martinez is healthy, he should be a huge boon for that rotation. Hudson had a strong rookie year but while he has a very good ground ball rate, he's struggled with walks. Hopefully he can cut down on them. Mikolas looks pretty solid and Flaherty should be a Cy Young contender.

I don't think ZiPS has any of the four teams really projected for much WAR than any of the others. Eyeballing it my guess is the Cubs or Cards are the "favorites" but even the Cubs havesome uncertainty in the rotation and there's not a lot of depth. Which makes those two standing pat this offseason pretty baffling.

And most projections are usually going to be on the conservative side.

The is also a wild card in what you mentioned which is Kim, the South Korean, who will be competing for the 5th starter in the Cardinals rotation in spring training. None of us know at this point how this is going to work out but I like his credentials.

 

[tomcat1]

This like the Arenado rumors. The STL top guys, Mo and others, don't have the balls to pull this off. I knoee they did the Goldy thing, but seems they are so in on Carp being the third baseman for the next two years.

I hear you man but the Arenado rumors are all over the place so I don't think we can depend on anything in that regard until it's a done deal. Like you, I have a problem with why we continue to be so loyal to Carpenter but I also have a problem with why we continue to be so loyal to Bader when so far he has proven that he cannot hit at the MLB level.

 

[wings-pens2166]

Them too. They've done little if anything to improve what was a pretty mediocre lineup last year. I do think Carpenter and Goldy will improve (though their projections still aren't great). If Molina sustains his LD% and hard contact rate he could be in for a better year (or at least a higher BABIP), but that's hard to bank on for a catcher in his late 30's.

The non-Pirates teams all look to project to around 80-90 wins. You'd think every win you can add would be crucial.

WTF are you talking about? The Pirates will easily hit the 80-90 range...oh wait, you said wins. Never mind.

 

[tomcat1]

WTF are you talking about? The Pirates will easily hit the 80-90 range...oh wait, you said wins. Never mind.

I'm glad you clarified that!

 

[tomcat1]

I am so ready for opening day when my Cardinals visit the Reds on March 26th because I feel like that's the team we've got to beat this season to win the NL Central. Stay healthy Mr. Flaherty since you will probably get the opening day assignment as our starting pitcher.

 

[thedddd]

Yes Cherington did state this....

With success, Ben Cherington confident Pirates’ payroll will increase

“I’m confident [payroll] will increase over time as we get deeper into our team build, there’s opportunity and we get closer with those opportunities,” Cherington stated

Seriously does he even know who he works for?

 

[Markwassillylaugher]

Yes Cherington did state this....

With success, Ben Cherington confident Pirates’ payroll will increase





Seriously does he even know who he works for?

 

[navamind]

There's no surer sign that baseball is upon us than a Brandon Morrow injury...

Brandon Morrow's comeback attempt hits a bump in the road