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Rock Strongo
My mind spits with an enormous kickback.
Atlanta Falcons (36.6 percent chance to make the playoffs)
Playoff kryptonite: Run defense
The Falcons' defense hasn't been very good in general this season, but it has been particularly egregious against the run. Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in rush defense DVOA and was dead last as recently as one week ago. As an undersized defense built on speed, the Falcons aren't likely to suddenly improve against opposing rushing attacks. Dan Quinn's team is allowing runners to convert on 69.2 percent of their third-down carries, the worst rate in football by nearly five full percentage points.
As a result, the Falcons probably don't want to see their NFC South brethren in the playoffs, given that the Panthers are built upon their power running game, while the Saints have built a balanced attack around their impressive offensive line and the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Carolina has been the second-best team in the league at converting third-down rushing attempts, while the Saints are averaging a league-high 5.3 yards per carry on their first-down rushing attempts. Sean Payton's team has added 2.06 wins this year through its running game, which puts the Saints in second place behind the Cowboys.
Los Angeles Chargers (37.5 percent)
Playoff kryptonite: Tackling
Every team has to tackle, and the Chargers have gotten better as the season has gone along, but the Los Angeles defense has a way of turning decent gains into huge chunks of yardage. The Chargers are allowing a league-high 2.38 yards after first contact against opposing rushers this season. Given that Los Angeles is 21st in the league in yards before first contact, taking down opposing ball carriers would greatly improve its run defense.
The Raiders might be on the outskirts of the playoff picture, but it's no surprise Marshawn Lynch's team leads the league in yards after first contact at 2.26. In shouting distance behind Oakland are the Patriots, who are in sixth at 1.99 yards after first contact. In fact, every likely AFC playoff team ranks in the upper half of the league in this category.
Kansas City Chiefs (61.5 percent)
Playoff kryptonite: Lack of pass pressure
I wrote on Monday about Kansas City's disappearing pass rush. The Chiefs desperately need a healthy Dee Ford to step up and deliver as a second threat alongside Justin Houston, because opposing quarterbacks simply haven't had much to worry about in the pocket. The Chiefs are pressuring opposing quarterbacks on just 24.8 percent of their dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
The Chiefs don't have to be worried about the two quarterbacks who lead the league in passer rating while unpressured this season, given that No. 1 is injured Texans rookie Deshaun Watson and No. 2 is Alex Smith. Three other AFC quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of more than 105.0 while unmolested in the pocket this season, and two of them are in the playoff hunt. One is Tom Brady of the Patriots, while the other is Los Angeles' Philip Rivers, whose team is suddenly in the thick of the division race. During the Chargers' three-game winning streak, Rivers has posted a molten-hot 126.8 passer rating without pressure. That's yet another thing for Chiefs fans to worry about in advance of their home game against the Chargers in two weeks.
Playoff kryptonite: Run defense
The Falcons' defense hasn't been very good in general this season, but it has been particularly egregious against the run. Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in rush defense DVOA and was dead last as recently as one week ago. As an undersized defense built on speed, the Falcons aren't likely to suddenly improve against opposing rushing attacks. Dan Quinn's team is allowing runners to convert on 69.2 percent of their third-down carries, the worst rate in football by nearly five full percentage points.
As a result, the Falcons probably don't want to see their NFC South brethren in the playoffs, given that the Panthers are built upon their power running game, while the Saints have built a balanced attack around their impressive offensive line and the duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara. Carolina has been the second-best team in the league at converting third-down rushing attempts, while the Saints are averaging a league-high 5.3 yards per carry on their first-down rushing attempts. Sean Payton's team has added 2.06 wins this year through its running game, which puts the Saints in second place behind the Cowboys.
Los Angeles Chargers (37.5 percent)
Playoff kryptonite: Tackling
Every team has to tackle, and the Chargers have gotten better as the season has gone along, but the Los Angeles defense has a way of turning decent gains into huge chunks of yardage. The Chargers are allowing a league-high 2.38 yards after first contact against opposing rushers this season. Given that Los Angeles is 21st in the league in yards before first contact, taking down opposing ball carriers would greatly improve its run defense.
The Raiders might be on the outskirts of the playoff picture, but it's no surprise Marshawn Lynch's team leads the league in yards after first contact at 2.26. In shouting distance behind Oakland are the Patriots, who are in sixth at 1.99 yards after first contact. In fact, every likely AFC playoff team ranks in the upper half of the league in this category.
Kansas City Chiefs (61.5 percent)
Playoff kryptonite: Lack of pass pressure
I wrote on Monday about Kansas City's disappearing pass rush. The Chiefs desperately need a healthy Dee Ford to step up and deliver as a second threat alongside Justin Houston, because opposing quarterbacks simply haven't had much to worry about in the pocket. The Chiefs are pressuring opposing quarterbacks on just 24.8 percent of their dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
The Chiefs don't have to be worried about the two quarterbacks who lead the league in passer rating while unpressured this season, given that No. 1 is injured Texans rookie Deshaun Watson and No. 2 is Alex Smith. Three other AFC quarterbacks have posted a passer rating of more than 105.0 while unmolested in the pocket this season, and two of them are in the playoff hunt. One is Tom Brady of the Patriots, while the other is Los Angeles' Philip Rivers, whose team is suddenly in the thick of the division race. During the Chargers' three-game winning streak, Rivers has posted a molten-hot 126.8 passer rating without pressure. That's yet another thing for Chiefs fans to worry about in advance of their home game against the Chargers in two weeks.