New Top 68 as of now

[DHoey]

You think pretty highly of SEC teams.

 

[rmilia1]

You think pretty highly of SEC teams.

SEC is Kentucky and a bunch of average teams. That said average will probably be good enough to get in this year. Honestly the second best team in the SEC would probably finish 7th in the B10 and I think we can all agree the B10 is down this year. That said someone has to make the tourney. LOL

 

[DHoey]

That said someone has to make the tourney. LOL

That's true. I guess it surprises me every year how "soft" the bubble is.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

That's true. I guess it surprises me every year how "soft" the bubble is.

I'm never surprised how soft the bubble is because there are too many goddamn teams in the tournament. Every year the bubble is a steaming shitpile, and the biggest controversy of Selection Sunday usually boils down to the coach of one steaming shitpile pissed because some other steaming shitpile got in instead of his pile of shit.

64 was too many but it least it made sense in terms of backing a simple bracket, and getting the most exposure for good teams (byes are terrible for marketing since it means that the teams everyone wants to see playing are the teams that play the fewest games)

 

[The Derski]

People say this same crap every year.....it's nonsense

A few teams WILL get hot and a 5+ seed or 2 WILL make the FF. You can take that to the bank.

Won't be Cincy

 

[tducey]

Going to be interesting to see the final rankings. Think at this point the #1's will be Kentucky, Virginia, Duke and villanova.

 

[jontaejones]

People say this same crap every year.....it's nonsense

A few teams WILL get hot and a 5+ seed or 2 WILL make the FF. You can take that to the bank.

Not sure if that will happen this year. The top 6 or 7 or so are unusually strong, compared to the field at least.

I can see it being 1, 1, 2, 3.

 

[rmilia1]

3 of the top 6 are heavily focused on defense. While that is great and defense is for sure an important part of the game when you rely on your D to win games you are highly susceptible in a 1 game scenario. UK, UVA and Arizona ( to a lesser extent ) are really just one lights out shooting performance away from being upset as none of these 3 teams are offensively equipped to handle a 85-82 type game IMO. If I had to rank the likelihood of the top 6 getting upset early ( before E8) Id go UVA, UK, Zona, Nova, Duke, Wisconsin in that order. Of course that doesnt mean any of those teams WILL have a team go off on them but if it happens the first 3 on that list are in more trouble than the last 3

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

3 of the top 6 are heavily focused on defense. While that is great and defense is for sure an important part of the game when you rely on your D to win games you are highly susceptible in a 1 game scenario. UK, UVA and Arizona ( to a lesser extent ) are really just one lights out shooting performance away from being upset as none of these 3 teams are offensively equipped to handle a 85-82 type game IMO. If I had to rank the likelihood of the top 6 getting upset early ( before E8) Id go UVA, UK, Zona, Nova, Duke, Wisconsin in that order. Of course that doesnt mean any of those teams WILL have a team go off on them but if it happens the first 3 on that list are in more trouble than the last 3

Whahuh?

I completely disagree with this philosophy. Good defense will be good defense, day in and day out. UK and UVA and other good defensive teams will be good at defense regardless. Teams like Duke that rely on hitting a million 3's are much more likely to suffer an upset when their shots aren't falling. (See Lehigh, Mercer)

I've seen a lights out shooting team have a cold night. I don't think I've ever seen a great defensive team have a bad defensive night. Any team is susceptible to another team shooting white hot, but I think that scenario is much less likely for good defensive teams. (I find it particularly odd that you think the team with the 3rd best 3pt% allowed is the one most likely to a lights out shooting performance.)

Kentucky, Arizona and Wisconsin don't belong in that conversation at all. All of them have all the tools necessary to score in heaps if need be. Virginia I can see on there. Duke I can see on there because their defense is suspect. (and they could have a cold shooting night) And I haven't seen Nova enough this season to have an informed opinion but they're 4th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, so take that for what it's worth.

 

[rmilia1]

Defense isnt like offense Trolly. I get that you can be great at D even when you arent making shots BUT in a one game knockout scenario you cannot be predominantly a defense first team and not be more susceptible to an upset. Much like its tough to win a title when you are mostly an outside shooting team. Defenive teams can and have won titles but my point is I think they are more prone to losing a game they shouldnt because it just takes 1 great shooting performance to derail them. On a season long basis Ill take D over O every time. On a tournament basis I lean towards offense as opposed to D. Not saying UK, UVA, Zona cant or wont win the title.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Defense isnt like offense Trolly. I get that you can be great at D even when you arent making shots BUT in a one game knockout scenario you cannot be predominantly a defense first team and not be more susceptible to an upset. Much like its tough to win a title when you are mostly an outside shooting team. Defenive teams can and have won titles but my point is I think they are more prone to losing a game they shouldnt because it just takes 1 great shooting performance to derail them. On a season long basis Ill take D over O every time. On a tournament basis I lean towards offense as opposed to D. Not saying UK, UVA, Zona cant or wont win the title.

But most of the teams you had listed are very potent offensive teams. They're known for their defense, but claiming that UK, Zona, and Wisconsin rely on their defense too much seems like lunacy. I get that for UVA as they seem to struggle to score 70 against all but the worst teams, but UK, Zona and Wisconsin all have a ton of offensive weapons.

That said, I'm not buying the premise as a whole either. Defense doesn't just disappear. Offense does. If a team is one dimensional (and most of the teams you've listed aren't one dimensional) I'll take teh defensive team over the offensive team all day long.

 

[rmilia1]

But most of the teams you had listed are very potent offensive teams. They're known for their defense, but claiming that UK, Zona, and Wisconsin rely on their defense too much seems like lunacy. I get that for UVA as they seem to struggle to score 70 against all but the worst teams, but UK, Zona and Wisconsin all have a ton of offensive weapons.

That said, I'm not buying the premise as a whole either. Defense doesn't just disappear. Offense does. If a team is one dimensional (and most of the teams you've listed aren't one dimensional) I'll take teh defensive team over the offensive team all day long.

I guess I dont see Zona or UK as great offensive teams. They are good offensive teams ( unlike UVA who is a average to below average offense ), I didnt include Wisconsin in the predominantly defense category, I was just listing the 6 best teams in order of how likely I feel they are prone to an upset. Wisconsin is last because I think they can defend AND score at a high level. I know Im in the minority with my thoughts on your Wildcats but I just have a tough time gauging how great they really are since I dont think they have played a top 20 type team since Kansas. Now I grant you that they in large part dominated that substandard competition but I just am not sure how they will respond in a 1 game scenario when they are playing a team capable of scoring the ball on them. They could easily adapt and win the title ( as most think they will ) but since I havent seen it I take pause. Maybe I wont see it, thats entirely plausible.

 

[uncfan103]

I'm really not sure how Virginia could possibly be considered average to below average on offense.

Top 15 in assist to turnover ratio
3rd fewest turnovers in the NCAA
24th in points per possession
27th in efficiency

Just because they don't have as many possessions and because they don't score as many as other teams does not make their offense below average.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

I'm really not sure how Virginia could possibly be considered average to below average on offense.

Because they are ranked 218th in scoring offense. Louisville is ranked 120th, and I'm not sure that they've hit a field goal since the first half of the Duke game back in January. UVA is ranked 98 spots behind them.

 

[uncfan103]

Because they are ranked 218th in scoring offense. Louisville is ranked 120th, and I'm not sure that they've hit a field goal since the first half of the Duke game back in January. UVA is ranked 98 spots behind them.

How is that relevant? Fewer possessions = fewer points.

 

[rmilia1]

In Virginias last 10 games they are scoring 60 ppg. They won because of D, more than any other team by a wide margin. You can't win a title dropping 60 ppg on people

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

How is that relevant? Fewer possessions = fewer points.

You said you weren't sure how people could consider Virginia average to below average on offense. I told you why people consider Virginia to be average to below average on offense. They don't score many points.

 

[uncfan103]

You said you weren't sure how people could consider Virginia average to below average on offense. I told you why people consider Virginia to be average to below average on offense. They don't score many points.

In Virginias last 10 games they are scoring 60 ppg. They won because of D, more than any other team by a wide margin. You can't win a title dropping 60 ppg on people

Why does it matter how many points you are averaging if you're not turning the ball over, maximizing possessions, you're scoring more points per possession than other teams, and you're more efficient? Virginia is a really good offensive team.

 

[thedddd]

Well you better update #68! Bobby Mo beat St Francis.

 

[bksballer89]

Is BYU out now?