New Top 68 as of now

[rmilia1]

UVa has only given up more than 73 points ONCE all season, and that was Miami in a 2OT game. I just gave a list of 4 teams that score over 75 points a game. UVa held them well below their averages with ease. You are using what if's to justify your stance, when I am using facts to say that Virginia shuts teams down, period. They have held 14 teams below 50 points and 24 teams below 60 points. That is unheard of.

Thats not my point Jefrfro. The original comment was that I think UVA is more likely to be upset than the other 5 teams based on how they rely so much on their D. Saying they dont give up that many points is not a guarantee it wont happen in the tourney. Thats the entire premise of the thought. IF they do run in to a team that scores it on them then do you think they are offensively equipped to win a 80-75 game vs a good team?? Im not saying it will happen but we are debating the merits of the 6 best teams in the country.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Let me ask you Jeffro, what odds do you give UVA of winning a tourney game if they give up 75 points in that game?? I think if youre honest with yourself you would see my point. Of course UVA may win the title and not give up more than 60 in any game. Their D is that good. However if they do run in to a team that scores it on them I just dont think they are as capable as the other top 5 teams to win that game. As I said Id lump UK and Zona in there too only because I am not sure they can win that game. UVA I just dont think would. No reason to think it will happen for sure but if it does then UVA is more prone to lose that game than UK, Zona, Wisky, Duke and Nova

How confident are you that Duke will win if they don't shoot 30% from behind the arc? (they are 2-2 in the ACC when shooting <30% from behind the arc, one of those wins was against a UofL team that might have set an ACC record for missed wide open jumpers)

Bonus question: What do you think is more likely UVA giving up 75 or Duke shooting less that 30% from behind the arc?

 

[ericd7633]

Let me ask you Jeffro, what odds do you give UVA of winning a tourney game if they give up 75 points in that game?? I think if youre honest with yourself you would see my point. Of course UVA may win the title and not give up more than 60 in any game. Their D is that good. However if they do run in to a team that scores it on them I just dont think they are as capable as the other top 5 teams to win that game. As I said Id lump UK and Zona in there too only because I am not sure they can win that game. UVA I just dont think would. No reason to think it will happen for sure but if it does then UVA is more prone to lose that game than UK, Zona, Wisky, Duke and Nova

That 75 point threshold is totally unrealistic considering UVA hasn't given up that much all season in regulation though. That would be like me spinning it around and saying nobody can beat UVA if they score 90 in a game. I'd give UVA the win 100% of the time if they scored 90, but they havent done that this year so that's just as an irrelevant of a number as them giving up 75 on defense.

 

[jeffro151]

Thats not my point Jefrfro. The original comment was that I think UVA is more likely to be upset than the other 5 teams based on how they rely so much on their D. Saying they dont give up that many points is not a guarantee it wont happen in the tourney. Thats the entire premise of the thought. IF they do run in to a team that scores it on them then do you think they are offensively equipped to win a 80-75 game vs a good team?? Im not saying it will happen but we are debating the merits of the 6 best teams in the country.

Yes, I do think UVa has the offense to keep up if need be. Most likely, that won't be necessary since out of the 30 games they have played, only 1 has scored above 73 points, and it took them 2 OT's to get to 80.

 

[rmilia1]

How confident are you that Duke will win if they don't shoot 30% from behind the arc? (they are 2-2 in the ACC when shooting <30% from behind the arc, one of those wins was against a UofL team that might have set an ACC record for missed wide open jumpers)

Bonus question: What do you think is more likely UVA giving up 75 or Duke shooting less that 30% from behind the arc?

not very confident at all, that said I think that if you look at the 12 units on the top 6 teams ( iffense and defense ) I dont think many people would argue that the most questionable of them all is UVA's offense. All teams have strengths and weaknesses and are beatable on any given night> Im simply stating my opinion as to who the most likely team to lose before they should is.

 

[ericd7633]

not very confident at all, that said I think that if you look at the 12 units on the top 6 teams ( iffense and defense ) I dont think many people would argue that the most questionable of them all is UVA's offense. All teams have strengths and weaknesses and are beatable on any given night> Im simply stating my opinion as to who the most likely team to lose before they should is.

Dukes defense is worse than UVA's offense IMO. I'd be interested to see the efficiency numbers on that.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

not very confident at all, that said I think that if you look at the 12 units on the top 6 teams ( iffense and defense ) I dont think many people would argue that the most questionable of them all is UVA's offense. All teams have strengths and weaknesses and are beatable on any given night> Im simply stating my opinion as to who the most likely team to lose before they should is.

I'm not necessarily arguing your assessment of UVA's offense. I agree they aren't particularly potent (though very effective) I'm arguing against the likelihood of the scenario in which UVA needs to score more than 75.

And even if that situation was to come up, it isn't a weakness that is specific to UVA. Any team is going to have their hands full against a team that hits 20 3s, not just Virginia.

 

[jeffro151]

Dukes defense is worse than UVA's offense IMO. I'd be interested to see the efficiency numbers on that.

Duke is 63rd in adjusted D. UVa is 22nd in adjusted O.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Dukes defense is worse than UVA's offense IMO. I'd be interested to see the efficiency numbers on that.

Duke is #2 and #65, UVA is #21 and #2 (AdjO and AdjD respectively)

Or is you prefer the numbers:

Duke scores 122.9 per 100 possessions. Gives up 96.5
UVA scores 113.0 per 100. Gives up 85.3

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Duke is 63rd in adjusted D. UVa is 22nd in adjusted O.

Dammit. I forgot to refresh. So uh... yeah... what you said.

 

[rmilia1]

That 75 point threshold is totally unrealistic considering UVA hasn't given up that much all season in regulation though. That would be like me spinning it around and saying nobody can beat UVA if they score 90 in a game. I'd give UVA the win 100% of the time if they scored 90, but they havent done that this year so that's just as an irrelevant of a number as them giving up 75 on defense.

IOK well we will see, as I said efficiency numbers are great on a season long basis but useless in a 1 game scenario. Scoring 75 points against UVA ( while difficult ) really is just a good offensive team having an average game. I get the premise of it being less likely vs UVA and agree. However Id say that that scenario is more likely to happen to UVA than any scenario that leads to another top 6 type team losing early. Remember Im not arguing UVA WILL lose early, Im just saying that I consider it more likely to happen than the other teams losing early.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

IOK well we will see, as I said efficiency numbers are great on a season long basis but useless in a 1 game scenario. Scoring 75 points against UVA ( while difficult ) really is just a good offensive team having an average game. I get the premise of it being less likely vs UVA and agree. However Id say that that scenario is more likely to happen to UVA than any scenario that leads to another top 6 type team losing early. Remember Im not arguing UVA WILL lose early, Im just saying that I consider it more likely to happen than the other teams losing early.

I get that... I just can't get past the idea that you think it is more likely that somebody hangs 75 (in regulation) on UVA (which hasn't happened all season) than Duke going cold from behind the arc (which they have done, several times this season)

In the one high scoring (OT) game that UVA got into they won.
Duke lost two of it's cold shooting games and the two it won were against a crappy GaTech team and a Louisville team that just refused to hit wide open jumpers and layups. (seriously, I don't know if you saw that game but it was painful to watch.)

I could get behind your reasoning if the evidence supported it, but I just don't see it. It's nothing personal. I usually agree with most of your stuff. This one just seems off base.

 

[ericd7633]

IOK well we will see, as I said efficiency numbers are great on a season long basis but useless in a 1 game scenario. Scoring 75 points against UVA ( while difficult ) really is just a good offensive team having an average game. I get the premise of it being less likely vs UVA and agree. However Id say that that scenario is more likely to happen to UVA than any scenario that leads to another top 6 type team losing early. Remember Im not arguing UVA WILL lose early, Im just saying that I consider it more likely to happen than the other teams losing early.

Only 8% of D-1 teams average more than 75 ppg. Of that 8% only 35% of them are P5/Big East schools. The numbers would suggest that a team would have to play above average to even great to put up 75 points in a game. UVA played 4 of those schools that average more than 75 ppg. They gave up 65 ppg in those 4 games. So 4 of the best offensive teams in the country were collectively held 10 ppg below that 75 ppg threshold. Hell you should have put the number at about 65 to make it more realistic. They aren't giving up 75 points at any point this year. I'd bet any amount on that.

 

[dcZONAfan]

I think each team has something that could cause them to get upset earlier than expected.

Kentucky is prone to stretches where it can't score in the half court. If that coincides with a game where the other team is hot from the perimeter, they could lose.

Wisconsin is a good, but not great defensive team. I think they are the least likely to get upset because their offense is that good and it's not like they can't stop anybody, because they have shown they can when they need to.

UVA is going to be incorporating their best offensive player back into the rotation. No telling whether he will be ready to go. That leaves them little margin for error on defense and of course any time you are in a close game anything can happen.

Villanova has no size. They present mismatches all over the floor but what do they do if they aren't hitting every 3 and face a team that can dominate them down low and on the boards?

Duke is not a good defensive team. I'm not going to go any further than that with my analysis.

Arizona does not shoot the three well enough, consistently. If a team zones us, can we score enough? I'm not worried about man to man, but I am worried about a well executed zone. Look what happened when we went to Oregon State. Hell, I don't think we reached 60 points at home against that zone (we won by 23 or something, but still).

 

[uncfan103]

As to UVA, I am a fan of efficiency metrics but you cant laud a team for efficiency and note them having less possessions as a reason for them scoring less and then at the same time say they dont turn it over as much. Of course they dont turn it over as much when there are fewer possessions. I have watched UVA 15 times this year and they just arent very good on offense. Many of their points come off of their D as well. Honestly it wouldnt even take a GREAT shooting performance to beat them, it would take a good shooting performance and to not turn the ball over. IF UVA runs in to a team with good, experienced guards in R2 or S16 and that team also hapopens to have a decent big guy then the Cavs could be in trouble. A team like UNI would be a bad matchup for UVA in a S16 matchup IMO

They're 13th in turnovers per possession.

 

[uncfan103]

IOK well we will see, as I said efficiency numbers are great on a season long basis but useless in a 1 game scenario. Scoring 75 points against UVA ( while difficult ) really is just a good offensive team having an average game. I get the premise of it being less likely vs UVA and agree. However Id say that that scenario is more likely to happen to UVA than any scenario that leads to another top 6 type team losing early. Remember Im not arguing UVA WILL lose early, Im just saying that I consider it more likely to happen than the other teams losing early.

No, it's not. It's a great offensive team having a great night. 8 power conference schools average 75 points per game or more. That average is coming against teams that are giving them more possessions, teams that allow more points off turnovers, teams that can't defend, etc. If a good offense could have an average game and score 75 on UVA it would've happened this year.

 

[rmilia1]

Well I didnt even care yesterday about UVA. Now I hope they lose 76-59 in the second round just so I can

 

[jeffro151]

At least now you've admitted why you dropped UVA down, just so you can hope you prove yourself to be right.