New Top 68 as of now

[mr.hockey4242]

Is BYU out now?

Nah they'll be in

 

[The Derski]

I guess I dont see Zona or UK as great offensive teams. They are good offensive teams ( unlike UVA who is a average to below average offense ), I didnt include Wisconsin in the predominantly defense category, I was just listing the 6 best teams in order of how likely I feel they are prone to an upset. Wisconsin is last because I think they can defend AND score at a high level. I know Im in the minority with my thoughts on your Wildcats but I just have a tough time gauging how great they really are since I dont think they have played a top 20 type team since Kansas. Now I grant you that they in large part dominated that substandard competition but I just am not sure how they will respond in a 1 game scenario when they are playing a team capable of scoring the ball on them. They could easily adapt and win the title ( as most think they will ) but since I havent seen it I take pause. Maybe I wont see it, thats entirely plausible.

Arizona scores 77 ppg which is good for top 20 in the nation and they are averaging 81 over their current win streak. Not to mention they are 14th in the country in offensive efficiency. I'm really not worried about our offense at all. Arizona is one of the most balanced teams there is.

 

[dcZONAfan]

In Virginias last 10 games they are scoring 60 ppg. They won because of D, more than any other team by a wide margin. You can't win a title dropping 60 ppg on people

I think you are being pretty harsh. Virginia lost their best offensive player for a long stretch, before that they were hovering around a top 10 offense in efficiency. And if you think you can't win a title dropping 60 on people, didn't UCONN drop like 63 or something in the title game last year?

That UVA D is as good as they were last year, if not better. The difference is that with Justin Anderson they are close to an elite offense. It's just hard to score a lot when the defensive possession always lasts 30 seconds.

I think, aside from maybe Kentucky and Wisconsin, the UVA offense is one of the most patient and unselfish I have seen in a long time. They almost NEVER take a bad shot, always make the correct extra pass, and have a guy in Malcom Brogdon who can create at the end of the shot clock if needed. Sleeping on that team (if fully healthy, mind you) is not a very smart idea.

 

[dcZONAfan]

Also,

Was looking at bracketology on ESPN and Lunardi has Wisconsin as a 2 and Notre Dame as a 3. I think if that matchup came to fruition Wisconsin might score 170 points in that game. The Notre Dame defense is absolutely putrid. Man, can they score, but....

 

[ericd7633]

I'm with UNCfan. I don't think UVA is a bad offensive team at all. Have they been worse the last 10 games? Yeah, definitely, but that's also because they've been playing without their best player and a legitimate All-American candidate. By all indications, he should be back in time for the NCAA Tournament. Chances were he was going to be at worse a 3rd team All-American, with a good chance at landing on the 2nd team. Take Stanley Johnson off Zona, Sam Dekker off Wisconsin, Melo Trimble off Maryland, Kyle Wiltjer off Gonzaga, Quinn Cook off Duke, and I'm sure they wouldn't be as good offensively either. Judge the team on how they were with Anderson since, like I said, according to all indications are that he will be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

With Anderson they were averaging just over 68 ppg. And they did that without getting alot of possessions. Sure they slow the tempo down, but they also make it impossible to score against them, which leads to the other team using up much of the shot clock.

I'd love to see if there was a way to get efficiency numbers for UVA on offense with Anderson in the lineup. And points per possession numbers. I'd bet they were top 10 in both categories.

It won't be their offense that will let them down, if it does at all, it will be their style, that does, because it will keep games closer.

 

[ericd7633]

Also,

Was looking at bracketology on ESPN and Lunardi has Wisconsin as a 2 and Notre Dame as a 3. I think if that matchup came to fruition Wisconsin might score 170 points in that game. The Notre Dame defense is absolutely putrid. Man, can they score, but....

That would be a fun matchup. I think ND would match up well with Kaminsky with Auguste, who's a pretty athletic big. Really contrasting teams. Don't know who would stop Dekker and Hayes, but I also don't know who Hayes would guard on the perimeter, since ND basically plays 4 guards and a big.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

I'm with UNCfan. I don't think UVA is a bad offensive team at all. Have they been worse the last 10 games? Yeah, definitely, but that's also because they've been playing without their best player and a legitimate All-American candidate. By all indications, he should be back in time for the NCAA Tournament. Chances were he was going to be at worse a 3rd team All-American, with a good chance at landing on the 2nd team. Take Stanley Johnson off Zona, Sam Dekker off Wisconsin, Melo Trimble off Maryland, Kyle Wiltjer off Gonzaga, Quinn Cook off Duke, and I'm sure they wouldn't be as good offensively either. Judge the team on how they were with Anderson since, like I said, according to all indications are that he will be playing in the NCAA Tournament.

With Anderson they were averaging just over 68 ppg. And they did that without getting alot of possessions. Sure they slow the tempo down, but they also make it impossible to score against them, which leads to the other team using up much of the shot clock.

I'd love to see if there was a way to get efficiency numbers for UVA on offense with Anderson in the lineup. And points per possession numbers. I'd bet they were top 10 in both categories.

It won't be their offense that will let them down, if it does at all, it will be their style, that does, because it will keep games closer.

Their style is great for protecting a lead. But what if they fall behind? Offensive efficiency is great over the course of a game, but when you're down 5 with 2:00 left, I'm not sure that I want to trust the 34.9 second offense to get them back in the game. (And KenPom had them at 5th in AdjO prior to Anderson going down)

Their offense is effective, but it isn't particularly potent.

But I still trust a team that relies on their defense more than I do one that relies on their offense.

 

[ericd7633]

Their style is great for protecting a lead. But what if they fall behind? Offensive efficiency is great over the course of a game, but when you're down 5 with 2:00 left, I'm not sure that I want to trust the 34.9 second offense to get them back in the game. (And KenPom had them at 5th in AdjO prior to Anderson going down)

Their offense is effective, but it isn't particularly potent.

But I still trust a team that relies on their defense more than I do one that relies on their offense.

While I agree with your premise, they haven't really been in that type of situation this year other than the Louisville game, when they were down 4 with 2:00 minutes to go and played good down the stretch and it took an extreme circumstance for them to lose. They were beating Duke the entire game, until they made five three's in the last 5:00 of that game, which is again an extreme circumstance. This isn't to say they won't be put in this situation in the tournament, because it's bound to happen, especially after the first weekend and moving forward. IMO, I think they'll be able to handle that type of situation because they don't panic, stick to their game plan, and don't turn the ball over. They generally never get frazzled, whether ahead, or behind. I hope Anderson can come back and be as effective as he was. I think with him they are the 2nd best team in the country.

 

[rmilia1]

Arizona scores 77 ppg which is good for top 20 in the nation and they are averaging 81 over their current win streak. Not to mention they are 14th in the country in offensive efficiency. I'm really not worried about our offense at all. Arizona is one of the most balanced teams there is.

I know, UK also scores it well but much like UK Zona hasnt played much of a schedule since conference play started so its tough for me to figure them out. They are more experienced than UK so thats why I listed them 3rd amongst the top 6. Plus having a senior PG is going to help tremendously. Listen NONE of these teams are likely to be beaten early. I am just giving you the order of how likely they could be to get beat IMO. Hell all 6 of them will probably be in the E8

 

[rmilia1]

As to UVA, I am a fan of efficiency metrics but you cant laud a team for efficiency and note them having less possessions as a reason for them scoring less and then at the same time say they dont turn it over as much. Of course they dont turn it over as much when there are fewer possessions. I have watched UVA 15 times this year and they just arent very good on offense. Many of their points come off of their D as well. Honestly it wouldnt even take a GREAT shooting performance to beat them, it would take a good shooting performance and to not turn the ball over. IF UVA runs in to a team with good, experienced guards in R2 or S16 and that team also hapopens to have a decent big guy then the Cavs could be in trouble. A team like UNI would be a bad matchup for UVA in a S16 matchup IMO

 

[gordontrue]

3 of the top 6 are heavily focused on defense. While that is great and defense is for sure an important part of the game when you rely on your D to win games you are highly susceptible in a 1 game scenario. UK, UVA and Arizona ( to a lesser extent ) are really just one lights out shooting performance away from being upset as none of these 3 teams are offensively equipped to handle a 85-82 type game IMO. If I had to rank the likelihood of the top 6 getting upset early ( before E8) Id go UVA, UK, Zona, Nova, Duke, Wisconsin in that order. Of course that doesnt mean any of those teams WILL have a team go off on them but if it happens the first 3 on that list are in more trouble than the last 3

Whahuh?

I completely disagree with this philosophy. Good defense will be good defense, day in and day out. UK and UVA and other good defensive teams will be good at defense regardless. Teams like Duke that rely on hitting a million 3's are much more likely to suffer an upset when their shots aren't falling. (See Lehigh, Mercer)

I've seen a lights out shooting team have a cold night. I don't think I've ever seen a great defensive team have a bad defensive night. Any team is susceptible to another team shooting white hot, but I think that scenario is much less likely for good defensive teams. (I find it particularly odd that you think the team with the 3rd best 3pt% allowed is the one most likely to a lights out shooting performance.)

Kentucky, Arizona and Wisconsin don't belong in that conversation at all. All of them have all the tools necessary to score in heaps if need be. Virginia I can see on there. Duke I can see on there because their defense is suspect. (and they could have a cold shooting night) And I haven't seen Nova enough this season to have an informed opinion but they're 4th in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, so take that for what it's worth.

You guys are saying opposite things... and yet somehow both making perfect sense to me. Now I'm confused.

 

[gordontrue]

I heard a couple weeks ago that Kentucky and Zona were the only 2 teams that ranked in the top-15 for both offensive and defensive efficiency.

Just checked and its still true. (Zona is #4 def and #14 off, Kentucky is #1 def, #11 off)

 

[rmilia1]

Efficiency is GREAT and as I said over the course of a year it will pay huge dividends. However in a 1 game situation you may still need to be able to drop 85 points on someone in order to win. Nothing UVA has shown me leads me to think they are capable of that. In fact their offense has gotten worse over the course of the year. UK and Zona could do that I think but I dont KNOW they could do that. Duke, Nova and Wisconsin I KNOW they can do that. If that makes sense?

 

[jeffro151]

Their style is great for protecting a lead. But what if they fall behind? Offensive efficiency is great over the course of a game, but when you're down 5 with 2:00 left, I'm not sure that I want to trust the 34.9 second offense to get them back in the game. (And KenPom had them at 5th in AdjO prior to Anderson going down)

Their offense is effective, but it isn't particularly potent.

But I still trust a team that relies on their defense more than I do one that relies on their offense.

UVa was losing 13-2 to Syracuse with 6:07 left in the 1st half, yet was 23-20 at the end of the half.

UVa was losing 56-52 to Louisville with 1:54 left in the 2nd half, yet led 57-56 with 0:16 left in the 2nd half.

The team is capable of making comebacks just fine.

 

[jeffro151]

Efficiency is GREAT and as I said over the course of a year it will pay huge dividends. However in a 1 game situation you may still need to be able to drop 85 points on someone in order to win. Nothing UVA has shown me leads me to think they are capable of that. In fact their offense has gotten worse over the course of the year. UK and Zona could do that I think but I dont KNOW they could do that. Duke, Nova and Wisconsin I KNOW they can do that. If that makes sense?

Of course our offense has gotten worse throughout the season, we have been missing our best offensive player over the past 8.5 games.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

Efficiency is GREAT and as I said over the course of a year it will pay huge dividends. However in a 1 game situation you may still need to be able to drop 85 points on someone in order to win. Nothing UVA has shown me leads me to think they are capable of that. In fact their offense has gotten worse over the course of the year. UK and Zona could do that I think but I dont KNOW they could do that. Duke, Nova and Wisconsin I KNOW they can do that. If that makes sense?

Auburn shot almost 60% (11-19) from behind the arc against UK. They scored 75 points. (the most anyone scored against UK in a regulation game) They still lost by 35 points. Thirty five. UK scored A Hundred and Ten points in a conference game. I know it's only Auburn, but what happened to Auburn when they got white hot from beyond the arc? They go annihilated.

There isn't a lineup that UK plays where they don't have 4 bona-fide scorers on the floor. Pretty sure the same is true of Arizona too.

If you don't like efficiency, that's great. Look at the talent on the floor. UK has the talent to score at will. So does Arizona.

 

[TrollyMcTroller]

UVa was losing 13-2 to Syracuse with 6:07 left in the 1st half, yet was 23-20 at the end of the half.

UVa was losing 56-52 to Louisville with 1:54 left in the 2nd half, yet led 57-56 with 0:16 left in the 2nd half.

The team is capable of making comebacks just fine.

21 points in 14 minutes isn't exactly scoring in heaps. Yeah, they closed the gap but they weren't in any sort of hurry to do it.

5 points in a minute and a half isn't anything great either. And it's interesting that you'd point to a game where they lost as an example of them being able to come from behind.

Don't get me wrong. I think UVA is really good, and I think their defense is good enough to carry them most of the way. But I don't think their offense is particularly potent. I'm not saying its bad. I just don't think they are really good at scoring in a hurry, and sometimes you might need to do that in the tournament.

 

[jeffro151]

Notre Dame is 14th in points scored with 78.9. UVa held them to 56 points in South Bend.
Davidson is 4th in points scored with 80.6. UVa held them to 72 points in Charlotte.
Duke is 3rd in points scored with 81.3. UVa held them to 69 points in Charlottesville.
UNC is 16th in points scored with 78.2. UVa held them to 64 points in Chapel Hill.

As evidenced, UVa has shut down some of the top offenses, going 3-1 against the above teams, with the loss being at home. Points scored per game is not that big of a stat. 10 of the top 20 teams most likely won't even make the NCAAT.

 

[rmilia1]

Let me ask you Jeffro, what odds do you give UVA of winning a tourney game if they give up 75 points in that game?? I think if youre honest with yourself you would see my point. Of course UVA may win the title and not give up more than 60 in any game. Their D is that good. However if they do run in to a team that scores it on them I just dont think they are as capable as the other top 5 teams to win that game. As I said Id lump UK and Zona in there too only because I am not sure they can win that game. UVA I just dont think would. No reason to think it will happen for sure but if it does then UVA is more prone to lose that game than UK, Zona, Wisky, Duke and Nova

 

[jeffro151]

Let me ask you Jeffro, what odds do you give UVA of winning a tourney game if they give up 75 points in that game?? I think if youre honest with yourself you would see my point. Of course UVA may win the title and not give up more than 60 in any game. Their D is that good. However if they do run in to a team that scores it on them I just dont think they are as capable as the other top 5 teams to win that game. As I said Id lump UK and Zona in there too only because I am not sure they can win that game. UVA I just dont think would. No reason to think it will happen for sure but if it does then UVA is more prone to lose that game than UK, Zona, Wisky, Duke and Nova

UVa has only given up more than 73 points ONCE all season, and that was Miami in a 2OT game. I just gave a list of 4 teams that score over 75 points a game. UVa held them well below their averages with ease. You are using what if's to justify your stance, when I am using facts to say that Virginia shuts teams down, period. They have held 14 teams below 50 points and 24 teams below 60 points. That is unheard of.