Needs Some Input For My Dynasty Draft

[ANGELAKERAMS]

For fun how do you rank the top rookie RBs?

Harris, Williams/Etienne, Sermon and Carter.

Williams and Etienne are really a toss up for me. I think Williams is slightly better, but may take longer to see significant PT, whereas Etienne will be the receiving back from the get go and will see increased role as the season progresses.

as for long term, I like Etienne’s situation better than Williams in Denver.

 

[HaroldSeattle]

Harris, Williams/Etienne, Sermon and Carter.

Williams and Etienne are really a toss up for me. I think Williams is slightly better, but may take longer to see significant PT, whereas Etienne will be the receiving back from the get go and will see increased role as the season progresses.

as for long term, I like Etienne’s situation better than Williams in Denver.

That's interesting. I sort of see Etienne being used as a gadget player, yeah he could end up with the receiving work although Robinson did fine catching the ball last season with 49 catches and 60 targets. I like Williams chances of being the starter at some point this season as they faze Gordon out. Could even happen from the get go. I don't see Etienne knocking Robinson out from starting or even being the workhorse.
Course that all remains to be seen.

 

[ANGELAKERAMS]

That's interesting. I sort of see Etienne being used as a gadget player, yeah he could end up with the receiving work although Robinson did fine catching the ball last season with 49 catches and 60 targets. I like Williams chances of being the starter at some point this season as they faze Gordon out. Could even happen from the get go. I don't see Etienne knocking Robinson out from starting or even being the workhorse.
Course that all remains to be seen.

Yeah, the Robinson/Etienne situation is interesting.

I just see it as they have nothing invested in Robinson as he was an UDFA and they just took Etienne in the 1st for a reason.

hard to see them sitting their 1st round RB behind an UDFA for very long.

and until Denver fixes their QB situation, defenses will stack the box and make them throw, thus limiting Williams fantasy value even if he does take over RB1

 

[SteelersPride]

Not if there is a COVID forfeit. Even if its because of the opponent.

Dangerous imho to key in on Hurts/Reagor for fantasy power.

im ok with trying hurts, not reagor. thats a leap of faith

That's interesting. I sort of see Etienne being used as a gadget player, yeah he could end up with the receiving work although Robinson did fine catching the ball last season with 49 catches and 60 targets. I like Williams chances of being the starter at some point this season as they faze Gordon out. Could even happen from the get go. I don't see Etienne knocking Robinson out from starting or even being the workhorse.
Course that all remains to be seen.

and many reports that james robinson is having a great camp.

 

[SteelersPride]

That's interesting. I sort of see Etienne being used as a gadget player, yeah he could end up with the receiving work although Robinson did fine catching the ball last season with 49 catches and 60 targets. I like Williams chances of being the starter at some point this season as they faze Gordon out. Could even happen from the get go. I don't see Etienne knocking Robinson out from starting or even being the workhorse.
Course that all remains to be seen.

and many reports that james robinson is having a great camp.

 

[TREFF]

Harris, Williams/Etienne, Sermon and Carter.

Williams and Etienne are really a toss up for me. I think Williams is slightly better, but may take longer to see significant PT, whereas Etienne will be the receiving back from the get go and will see increased role as the season progresses.

as for long term, I like Etienne’s situation better than Williams in Denver.

The buzz out of Denver is that at minimum, the plan is to be a straight up split between Gordin/Williams this season...assuming Williams pulls his weight.
Unlikely Gordon is around next year.

At least, that's the consensus coming from most the local douche canoes that cover the team

 

[TREFF]

As for Etienne..I've got him as most likely being about the equivalent to the next Reggie Bush.

With a somewhat decent chance of being the next CJ Spiller.


But...there's also that slim chance he's the next M. Faulk.

Tough to gauge, and a total leap of faith.


As to his situation, until Robinson is out of the picture, or its obvious he's going to be the next Faulk...his situation is below that of all the big named rookie RB's. Rookie QB, bad oline, rookie NFL HC, Robinson and Hyde around to share...all on a team that was just bad, all around, to start with....even Sermon has a better situation..for 2021 at least

 

[ANGELAKERAMS]

As for Etienne..I've got him as most likely being about the equivalent to the next Reggie Bush.

With a somewhat decent chance of being the next CJ Spiller.


But...there's also that slim chance he's the next M. Faulk.

Tough to gauge, and a total leap of faith.


As to his situation, until Robinson is out of the picture, or its obvious he's going to be the next Faulk...his situation is below that of all the big named rookie RB's. Rookie QB, bad oline, rookie NFL HC, Robinson and Hyde around to share...all on a team that was just bad, all around, to start with....even Sermon has a better situation..for 2021 at least

Yes, but that’s the thing about dynasty FF.

it’s never just about this season. It’s trying to project what they will be/their situation will be beyond this season.

and until Denver finds a legit QB, I have a hard time believing his situation is better than Etienne’s long term.

but, it all depends on the fantasy owner. Just like last year. The drafts I did, J. Taylor was not the #2 RB behind CEH. Most took Akers and Dobbins over Taylor because of the mileage on Taylor.

now, Taylor turned in a fantastic rookie season mostly due to Mack’s injury, but how many more seasons can he produce that way due to his mileage vs the other RB’s like Dobbins, Gibson and Swift?

obviously, Akers had the devastating Achilles injury that takes him out of the equation.

it’s all subjective based on the owner.

 

[MilkSpiller22]

Yes, but that’s the thing about dynasty FF.

it’s never just about this season. It’s trying to project what they will be/their situation will be beyond this season.

and until Denver finds a legit QB, I have a hard time believing his situation is better than Etienne’s long term.

but, it all depends on the fantasy owner. Just like last year. The drafts I did, J. Taylor was not the #2 RB behind CEH. Most took Akers and Dobbins over Taylor because of the mileage on Taylor.

now, Taylor turned in a fantastic rookie season mostly due to Mack’s injury, but how many more seasons can he produce that way due to his mileage vs the other RB’s like Dobbins, Gibson and Swift?

obviously, Akers had the devastating Achilles injury that takes him out of the equation.

it’s all subjective based on the owner.

except you cant look too deep into the future... as things change too quickly and too much...

there is also a huge difference between owning a player and not owning a player when it comes to value... If you own a player, then you can not afford to be pessimistic about your player...

a good owner will never trade their player at his lowest value...

But deciding which players to add in draft or trade, or free agency, that is the only time where the players values are subjective...- if that makes sense...

 

[TREFF]

Yes, but that’s the thing about dynasty FF.

it’s never just about this season. It’s trying to project what they will be/their situation will be beyond this season.

and until Denver finds a legit QB, I have a hard time believing his situation is better than Etienne’s long term.

but, it all depends on the fantasy owner. Just like last year. The drafts I did, J. Taylor was not the #2 RB behind CEH. Most took Akers and Dobbins over Taylor because of the mileage on Taylor.

now, Taylor turned in a fantastic rookie season mostly due to Mack’s injury, but how many more seasons can he produce that way due to his mileage vs the other RB’s like Dobbins, Gibson and Swift?

obviously, Akers had the devastating Achilles injury that takes him out of the equation.

it’s all subjective based on the owner.

oh for sure I can totally see that perspective.

I'll just expand on my reasoning, not trying to contradict any of your points, I just like to explain my position..cuz thats just how I'm wired..

The reason I like Denver's situation, substantially, more than that in Jacksonville is primarily based on faith in the way that organization has been ran, throughout their history. Up until this current rut their in, their big claim to fame that they were ultra proud of, and rightly so, was that they had been to more super bowls than they had had losing seasons in their history. And for an organization that's been around as long as they have, that's really saying something. They are proud and I have faith that they'll get it turned around. Now remember, this is coming from a true black and silver, life long, will be lifetime, card carrying member of Raider Nation..I LOATHE the Donkeys, but I recognize and respect what they are, or at least what they always have been.

In addition to that, Vic Fangio is a proven hardened NFL coach, Pat Schumer is a proven, hardened NFL head coach, Mike Munchak is too..they are all in Denver. Jacksonville has Urban Meyer and a bunch of his lackeys outside of Brian Schottenhiemer. He's proven nothing at the NFL level, so His entire system could be a bust at this level, no clue as to whether he's got the ability to adjust that system to something that will work at this level. Is Pat Schumer some great offensive guru? No, not at all, but he's not terrible. Urban and his staff very well could be.

Then we've got the personnel, sure Lawrence seems to be the next great thing, he could very well be a complete bust, in which case, they've got nothing on the offensive side of the ball. Worst case in Denver, they turn to TeddyB and focus on the run game and a much improved Oline. The Jax line is terrible.
Robinson is around for 3 seasons most likely. Most likely the 2022 season in Denver is Williams and Boone, Gordon is virtually guaranteed to be a cap casualty. Only way he isn't is if Williams himself is a bust, and then it's a pointless debate anyways.

The talent, imho, is firmly on Etienne's side. the raw potential of what could be, I think, is on Etienne's side. But from what I can quantify based off what I know, and from what I've come to learn from observing the NFL for the past 40 years not just assuming that the volatile mixture of rookie HC, rookie QB, and rookie RB will all work out okay, is that the situation in Denver is better

 

[ANGELAKERAMS]

oh for sure I can totally see that perspective.

I'll just expand on my reasoning, not trying to contradict any of your points, I just like to explain my position..cuz thats just how I'm wired..

The reason I like Denver's situation, substantially, more than that in Jacksonville is primarily based on faith in the way that organization has been ran, throughout their history. Up until this current rut their in, their big claim to fame that they were ultra proud of, and rightly so, was that they had been to more super bowls than they had had losing seasons in their history. And for an organization that's been around as long as they have, that's really saying something. They are proud and I have faith that they'll get it turned around. Now remember, this is coming from a true black and silver, life long, will be lifetime, card carrying member of Raider Nation..I LOATHE the Donkeys, but I recognize and respect what they are, or at least what they always have been.

In addition to that, Vic Fangio is a proven hardened NFL coach, Pat Schumer is a proven, hardened NFL head coach, Mike Munchak is too..they are all in Denver. Jacksonville has Urban Meyer and a bunch of his lackeys outside of Brian Schottenhiemer. He's proven nothing at the NFL level, so His entire system could be a bust at this level, no clue as to whether he's got the ability to adjust that system to something that will work at this level. Is Pat Schumer some great offensive guru? No, not at all, but he's not terrible. Urban and his staff very well could be.

Then we've got the personnel, sure Lawrence seems to be the next great thing, he could very well be a complete bust, in which case, they've got nothing on the offensive side of the ball. Worst case in Denver, they turn to TeddyB and focus on the run game and a much improved Oline. The Jax line is terrible.
Robinson is around for 3 seasons most likely. Most likely the 2022 season in Denver is Williams and Boone, Gordon is virtually guaranteed to be a cap casualty. Only way he isn't is if Williams himself is a bust, and then it's a pointless debate anyways.

The talent, imho, is firmly on Etienne's side. the raw potential of what could be, I think, is on Etienne's side. But from what I can quantify based off what I know, and from what I've come to learn from observing the NFL for the past 40 years not just assuming that the volatile mixture of rookie HC, rookie QB, and rookie RB will all work out okay, is that the situation in Denver is better

Fair points

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Yes, but that’s the thing about dynasty FF.

it’s never just about this season. It’s trying to project what they will be/their situation will be beyond this season.

and until Denver finds a legit QB, I have a hard time believing his situation is better than Etienne’s long term.

but, it all depends on the fantasy owner. Just like last year. The drafts I did, J. Taylor was not the #2 RB behind CEH. Most took Akers and Dobbins over Taylor because of the mileage on Taylor.

now, Taylor turned in a fantastic rookie season mostly due to Mack’s injury, but how many more seasons can he produce that way due to his mileage vs the other RB’s like Dobbins, Gibson and Swift?

obviously, Akers had the devastating Achilles injury that takes him out of the equation.

it’s all subjective based on the owner.

there actually isn't any statistical correlation that ties RB college usage with NFL career length or injury probability.
College touches don't work like NFL touches, totally not the same when it comes to wear and tear.