My fantasy draft is this Friday.

[tlance]

Here's the order of players I will probably pick first if available.

1. LeSean McCoy. 2. Jamaal Charles, 3 and 4. Brandon Marshall/Calvin Johnson, 5. Eddie Lacy

Brandon Marshall should be nowhere near consideration in the first. At pick 5, I think you have to take an RB. The top 5 RBs are far and away the top dogs. They are:

Charles, McCoy, AP, Lacy, Forte.

Most likely, you can get Lacy 5th. Now, I personally have Monte Ball ranked 6th overall, but he may be available to you in round 2. He is ranked low on ESPN. If he is, that is who you should get. You will have 2 elite RBs to start your team if you take that approach and be a leg up on everyone. Next, I would look for Jordy, Jeffrey, or Antonio Brown as your WR1.

Don't take a defense until the late rounds and load up on RBs/WRs. TEs and QBs are luxury items.

 

[tlance]

So, RBs are usually more valuable then WRs?

Yes. Elite WRs are valuable, but elite RBs are gold. Don't pass up an elite RB to get another position. There are only 6, and you just might be able to get 2 of them.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Brandon Marshall should be nowhere near consideration in the first. At pick 5, I think you have to take an RB. The top 5 RBs are far and away the top dogs. They are:

Charles, McCoy, AP, Lacy, Forte.

Most likely, you can get Lacy 5th. Now, I personally have Monte Ball ranked 6th overall, but he may be available to you in round 2. He is ranked low on ESPN. If he is, that is who you should get. You will have 2 elite RBs to start your team if you take that approach and be a leg up on everyone. Next, I would look for Jordy, Jeffrey, or Antonio Brown as your WR1.

Don't take a defense until the late rounds and load up on RBs/WRs. TEs and QBs are luxury items.

I'm a bears fan, so I know what I'm talking about. Alshon Jeffery is very overrated this year. He's a great wr that could end up being better than Marshall, but that doesn't stop cutler from staring down Marshall all year.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Marshall is definitely the Bears #1. Nobody is denying that...but he's still not in the question at 5 overall!

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Marshall is definitely the Bears #1. Nobody is denying that...but he's still not in the question at 5 overall!

Yeah, I agree. I'm just giving non bears fans the advice. Cutler will rarely go to AJ.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Technically you're right...but not by as much as you think. I don't have it in me, but take a look at the difference last year, once Jeffery broke out in week 4, it's not as lopsided as the media and the past will have you believe... as Alshon grows, so will his targets.

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

Technically you're right...but not by as much as you think. I don't have it in me, but take a look at the difference last year, once Jeffery broke out in week 4, it's not as lopsided as the media and the past will have you believe... as Alshon grows, so will his targets.

Alshon really busted out when McCown took over. I'm a firm believer that if Jay Cutler had a prime Jerry Rice opposite of bmarsh, he would still stare down bmarsh. McCown was good because he made the right throws. Cutler is sort of good because he has the arm to force it into Marshall.

And I'm 100% right. I watched every single bears game last year and saw cutler force it to Marshall. If AJ has a big year I'd be incredibly happy, but is seriously seriously doubt it happens unless Claussen takes over. If that's the case, I expect another McCown like performance.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Oh. So the 5 for 100 and a TD in week 4 and the 10 catch 200 yard game in week 5 don't count as breakouts???

LOL

 

[TREFF]

Just because your a bears fan doesn't make you right about anything Bears related. If anything, it clouds your judgement.

 

[Bunkamania]

For the first pick, these are the 5 guys I would target. In order...

1. McCoy
2. Charles
3. Forte
4. Peterson
5. Lacy

You should be able to get a top reciever with your 2nd pick. I would look for...

1. Calvin Johnson - Should be gone
2. D. Thomas - Should be gone
3. AJ Green - Gone
4. D. Bryant
5. Marshall
6. J. Jones

Looking at a QB with your 2nd pick isn't as bad of an idea as most people believe because, a lot of the time those guys never get hurt and can help carry your team on down weeks. The only 3 that I would consider are...

1. Rogers
2. Manning
3. Brees

Jimmy Graham is the only other position player I would consider with the 2nd pick.

 

[iowajerms]

Alright, Here is my order to take as 1st pick if available...

1) Manning
2) Rodgers
3) McCoy
4) Brees
5) Charles

 

[TREFF]

I think putting Manning, and especially Rodgers, ahead of McCoy and Charles is a mistake. At the minimum, McCoy, Charles, AP, and Forte should be fine before taking a QB. And the majority would probably put Lacy, and Calvin on that list as well.

 

[wilwhite]

A note about drafting at each position:

The value is not the raw value you'd get from a player in points, but the value you get relative to players at the same team on other positions.

Over a season, the top-5 RBs typically outscore the next 5 RBs by about 50 FF pts; the top-5 WRs outscore the next 5 by only about 30. Also, after the 30th RB the value drops like a rock, while the loss is not as steep for late WRs.

That's why people take RBs early - but if the top RBs are gone, you can make up that advantage by getting a top WR or two. (But if people keep taking RBs it can be a problem for you if you didn't take any.)

General consensus is that those top 3 QBs will also give you a top-RB-like advantage, as will Graham. The issue with that approach is you need to start multiple RBs and WRs, and they get hurt a lot, so you need depth at those positions - so a QB or TE in the first round may not be a good approach in your first draft.

Ks are usually taken late because their values are pretty similar. DSTs are taken late because they are wildly unpredictable.

And two really important things: just because a player is drafted early does not necessarily mean he will be a top-5 player - and have fun.

 

[TK21775]

Here's the pts from last season

Manning 516
Brees 426
Rodgers 196

Dalton: 343
Rivers: 340
Cam: 330
Stafford: 325
Luck: 325
Romo: 314
Wilson: 308

RB's
Charles: 295
McCoy: 262
Forte: 251
Lynch: 224
Moreno: 220
Lacy: 198
AP: 194
CJ: 189
Murray: 189
F. Jackson: 175

The top 3, w/o injury, QB's put up bigger numbers but once you get to 4-10 in QB there is only 35 points that separate them. You only need 1 QB where you'll need to start 2 RB. Woodhead was the 20th scoring RB last season at 132 pts. Get into the 30th+ RB and you're under 100 points so if someone grabs say the 1st and 10th RB they'd have 470 points off last season's numbers. If you wait and grab the 11th and 20th RB you'd have 307 giving you a 163 decifit to overcome. Manning is 173 points better than the 4th QB, Brees 83 points better, and Rodgers was injured but I'd say 80-70 points is fair. If you grab QB first, you'd have to go RB/RB with next 2 picks almost, leaving you catching up for WR. If you get a top RB, say Forte at 3rd, is 76 points better than the 10th RB, you've already nearly made up difference of waiting on Brees and Rodgers and waiting.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

McCown was good because he made the right throws. Cutler is sort of good because he has the arm to force it into Marshall.

And I'm 100% right. I watched every single bears game last year.

This really gave me a laugh.
I had Alshon in a couple leagues last year, and can say without a doubt, HE made the plays. McCown just closed his eyes and threw the ball as far as he could, and Jeffery adjusted to the throws.

from the Bears own website:
NFLN: Best of Alshon Jeffery 2013

Watch the gem (LOL) that Cutler throws to #17 vs. the Browns around the 0:55 mark. Pretty sure he didn't even see Jeffery, he just threw it to 2 defenders. You gotta believe that Trestman/Cutler realize this guy has a special talent for high-pointing the ball and uses his body to create space.

 

[wilwhite]

TK's right - but that was last year. (Peyton had one of the most dominating seasons ever.) Extrapolating Foles' 10 starts to a full season would have given him 459 pts, btw.

 

[iowajerms]

OK, my new plan...

1st round - 1) Rodgers 2) Manning 3) McCoy 4) Brees 5) Charles
2nd round - RB if I pick a QB 1st round, WR if I pick a RB
3rd round - RB or WR, depending on who others are picking
4th round - QB if not chosen one, WR or RB depending on what I pick 3rd round
5th round - TE, depending on who is available, or RB/WR/QB

 

[Beengay fudgepackers]

This really gave me a laugh.
I had Alshon in a couple leagues last year, and can say without a doubt, HE made the plays. McCown just closed his eyes and threw the ball as far as he could, and Jeffery adjusted to the throws.

from the Bears own website:
NFLN: Best of Alshon Jeffery 2013

Watch the gem (LOL) that Cutler throws to #17 vs. the Browns around the 0:55 mark. Pretty sure he didn't even see Jeffery, he just threw it to 2 defenders. You gotta believe that Trestman/Cutler realize this guy has a special talent for high-pointing the ball and uses his body to create space.

I don't know where what I said was wrong. McCown made the right throws. However they were very inaccurate. I don't doubt Jeffery's talent, I think he could end up better than Marshall, but Cutler favors Marshall. By taking Jeffery, you are gambling that Cutler stops favoring Marshall to the point that he forces it to him on many plays. I don't want to take that gamble with my fantasy team. Whenever Jeffery and Marshall are covered, the ball is probably going to Marshall.

 

[tlance]

OK, my new plan...

1st round - 1) Rodgers 2) Manning 3) McCoy 4) Brees 5) Charles
2nd round - RB if I pick a QB 1st round, WR if I pick a RB
3rd round - RB or WR, depending on who others are picking
4th round - QB if not chosen one, WR or RB depending on what I pick 3rd round
5th round - TE, depending on who is available, or RB/WR/QB

It is your team, so do what you want, but in fantasy football unlike real life QBs just are not that important. I am really not sure why you would even ask for advice if this is what you are going to do.

If it makes you happy to draft Rodgers in the first round, then do it. Just know that in our recent MBBRL draft with the experts on here, Rodgers went 33rd overall. He should not have fallen quite that far IMO, but people who spend inordinate amounts of time analyzing this stuff are telling you NOT to take a QB first. If you want to draft the best team possible, then I strongly recommend taking those QBs out of consideration for your top 5.

 

[TREFF]

It is your team, so do what you want, but in fantasy football unlike real life QBs just are not that important. I am really not sure why you would even ask for advice if this is what you are going to do.

If it makes you happy to draft Rodgers in the first round, then do it. Just know that in our recent MBBRL draft with the experts on here, Rodgers went 33rd overall. He should not have fallen quite that far IMO, but people who spend inordinate amounts of time analyzing this stuff are telling you NOT to take a QB first. If you want to draft the best team possible, then I strongly recommend taking those QBs out of consideration for your top 5.