Michigan's magic number is 6

[MI Nightmare]

...to go dancing. It could be 7 or it could be 5 (doubtful) depending on the Ws. This has to include a win over MD, OSU or IU (banking on IU finishing 3rd or 4th in the B1G) and no bad losses over the next 9 games (and into the BTT). I don't think sweeping MSU would be enough this year...no offense Sparty. This is my bold ass prediction and it includes the conference tourney.

Right now Michigan sits at 13-8, 6-3 (B1G) 78 Pom, 60 RPI, and 77 BPI. We have zero "very good wins" and two "bad losses" (best wins are Syracuse (71 Pom) Minnesota (53 Pom) and Oregon (76 Pom) Michigan is on life support but there is a chance because of a few decent opponents left on the schedule and it seems like the more injuries this team sustains, the better they play fundamentally.

If Beilein gets his current group of 3 star freshmen, walk-ons, and what bit of experienced players that remain healthy come March, into the Big Dance, it'll be nothing short of a small miracle. Similar to what Beilein did with Stu Douglas, Zak Novak and company but this time on short notice. It's time to see if Beilein can develop and coach this team up to play like 4-5 stars once again.


Sparty, you next.

 

[ericd7633]

IMO if Michigan finishes 6-3 in B1G play, I would assume losses to the following @Michigan State, @IU, and @Maryland. That means Michigan would beat: Iowa, @Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, @Northwestern, Rutgers.

That would put them at 19-11(12-6) heading into the BTT. I would assume that would put Michigan as the #4 seed, maybe #3, but they would be losing the tiebreaker against both the other teams in contention(IU and MD) in my scenario, if they finished with the same B1G record. That would likely pit them against either Ohio State, Michigan State or Iowa in the Quarters.

Michigan would add wins over(in my scenario) Michigan State(RPI of 40), Ohio State(RPI of 41) and Iowa(RPI of 52). I would assume those wouldn't change too drastically if they keep playing how they have been.

That would give Michigan two top 50 RPI wins heading into that game against the #5 seed in the BTT assuming the #5 seed takes care of business in round two.

Long story short: I think they'll need that Quarterfinal win over the #5 seed to feel safe.

A 19-12 record(BTT Quarter loss) would give them the same record as Nebraska had last year. Nebraska went 11-7 in the B1G(albeit a better B1G) and had 4 top 50 RPI wins, just as a comparison. Nebraska received an 11 seed last year. Will be interesting.

 

[ericd7633]

Also, as a side note, I think the BTT is going to be WIDE open, especially for the bottom half. Even if Wisconsin rolls through the top half, you still could see crazy in the bottom half. Just taking a look at the current standings, would it really shock anybody to see Michigan State(#6 seed) Iowa(#7 seed) Illinois(#10 seed) or hell even Minnesota(#11 seed) get to the final?

 

[MI Nightmare]

Also, as a side note, I think the BTT is going to be WIDE open, especially for the bottom half. Even if Wisconsin rolls through the top half, you still could see crazy in the bottom half. Just taking a look at the current standings, would it really shock anybody to see Michigan State(#6 seed) Iowa(#7 seed) Illinois(#10 seed) or hell even Minnesota(#11 seed) get to the final?

Not crazy at all. About half the Big Ten is hovering around 30-80 in the indexes, all fighting for good wins just to reach the "bubble." Only Wisconsin and Maryland are near locks and even they can both lose to the B1G bottom feeders on any given night (almost certain if injuries occur).

 

[jontaejones]

I look at it more as quality wins and total losses.

You need to try to stay at 12 losses total or lower (pre conference tourney), so they need to try to lose 4 games or fewer.

They also don't have enough good wins. They need two at least.

You have to remember. UM must overcome those bad losses earlier on with some really good wins. You might even say they need to beat OSU and Maryland to have a shot.

 

[jdwills126]

Unfortunately the injuries will get factored in. So they need good showings in both the conference play as well as B1G Tourney play.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Yeah, looking from the outside in, I think Michigan has a lot more work cut out for them than some are thinking.

Those early losses, while early, some were really, really bad. Without any really good wins to off-set those, it's going to be a struggle unless they really take off down the stretch and into the BTT.

 

[Cincyfan78]

Also, take it for whatever it's worth, but on the latest Bracketology, Michigan isn't even mentioned...including 1st 4 out, and next 4 out.

Same with Jerry Palm...no mention of Michigan.

They've got work to do.

 

[tducey]

I agree, Michigan looks good right now but only as a bubble team, they got to do good heading down the stretch if they want to make the tournament.

 

[broncosmitty]

Without Caris I don't think they can do it. Not after letting Wisky slip thru their fingers last weekend.

But there's always the BIG Tourney to get it done. Okay, six more regular season wins and an appearance in the conference final, maybe. It's slim to none though.

 

[MI Nightmare]

Without Caris I don't think they can do it. Not after letting Wisky slip thru their fingers last weekend.

But there's always the BIG Tourney to get it done. Okay, six more regular season wins and an appearance in the conference final, maybe. It's slim to none though.

...

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Honestly, I think 12-6 would be just fine. Sure, the good wins would not really be there with the way the BIG is this year but a 12-6 major conference team is tough to leave out even with the awful losses.


That said. I would be absolutely floored if they won 6 more games or even 4 more. I think at NU and Rutgers are probable wins. They may snag 1 more at home against Iowa/MSU/OSU but those are tough. The other 4 road games...not seeing.

 

[H2S]

yah man, heard that...

...

...

 

[MI Nightmare]

Also, take it for whatever it's worth, but on the latest Bracketology, Michigan isn't even mentioned...including 1st 4 out, and next 4 out.

Same with Jerry Palm...no mention of Michigan.

They've got work to do.

Lunardi must have read my thread:


Bracketology - NCAA College Basketball Brackets and Predictions - ESPN


and

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2015


I'm sticking by my 6 wins scenario but IU losing last night didn't help if we're able to knock off the Hoosiers. We definitely need some 1-50 RPI wins.

 

[Cleaves2000]

Didnt they lose to NJIT and EMU with levert and walton? Maybe the bums are better...even tho they just lost to maybe tom izzo's worst team in 18 yrs.

But its back to the NIT for miNITchicken