Mariners Acquire Mike Leake

[Clayton]

Probably a win/win of sorts. Cardinals need to bring up a couple of young guys and i think they are eating some of the contract but not all of it.

Leake has his moments where he shines but other than that he is just an arm.

edit - ninja'd

 

[seahawksfan234]

Leake's second half splits:
6.90 ERA
1,76 WHIP

Cardinals GM: I ripped off DiPoto once. Let's see if I can do it again.

Leake is a #5 on a team that wants to compete. You don't pay a #5 $16 million a year, not even on the Dodgers or Yankees. How much of the money the Cardinals ate will be the final preliminary determination for how good of a trade this might have been. I'm about 98% certain they didn't eat enough.

I disagree. He has pitched poorly in the second half, but I don't think that's indicative of his long-term abilities. Over the past 4 years he has been extremely consistent.

Hopefully I'm right that it's just a bad streak and not an injury, or him starting to head downhill.

Over the past four years he has been a solid #3 IMO. Although $16m a year is a lot for a #3, given the current state of the Mariners rotation and inflating pitcher salaries - I don't think that's all too bad. But that statement is completely contingent on Leake pitching like he has the past four years. Leake to me seems like a guy you can count on for 190-200 IP with a low four ERA.

Leake combined with a free agent or two would give the Mariners a good rotation next year, assuming that he continues pitching like he has in recent years.

 

[SeattleCoug]

So it will be roughly 3 years / 38 mil for us starting next year

 

[seahawksfan234]

Well, that makes me like the trade a lot more.

Leake is owed $48m from 2018-2020 with a $5m buyout in 2021. Just using the numbers from 2018-2020, $48m - $17m = $31m. Meaning the Mariners would be paying him an average of a little over $10m a year.

Honestly not bad. I think a pitcher of Leake's caliber - if you ignore his recent poor stretch - is worth a bit more than $10m per year on the open market nowadays. Hell, fucking Gallardo is getting paid $11m this year - $2m covered by the Orioles.

 

[seahawksfan234]

So it will be roughly 3 years / 38 mil for us starting next year

I've heard that he's "owed" $55m. I was kind of confused as to how that broke down, but this is what I figured:

$48m from 2018-2020.

$5m buyout in 2021. Or an $18m option.

Which means there's $2m left on his contract this year.

I'm unsure how the money that the Cardinals will be distributed, I'd have to assume that it would be distributed among the 2018-2020 years with the Mariners being on the hook for the remainder of his contract this year and the buyout when that comes along.

If I'm correct that would mean the Mariners would be on the hook for $2m this year. $31m from 2018-2020 and the $5m buyout in 2021.

 

[seahawksfan234]

The thing that concerns me is that the Cardinals were willing to send the Mariners $17m. That makes me worry that they were desperate to dump him, even though they have younger guys behind him in the organization.

The deal was a win-win before the Cardinals sent the money. If the Cards are willing to send $17m, that makes me wonder if they think that his poor second half is indicative of him going downhill long-term.

 

[cezero]

18 runs in his last 14 innings

you know what that means?

WE'RE MAKING THE PLAYOFFS NOW!

 

[cezero]

add more shit to a pile of shit

yep, it adds depth

but it's SHIT

Dude what the fuck?

This is a move that should've been made months ago. On the surface, this is a great move. I've never even heard of the prospect we gave up for Leake, we're simply taking on his contract. But this is way too fucking late.

Instead of trading for Marco fucking Gonzales this is the move we should've made months ago. At this point, it may be too little too late. Had we made this move when we traded for little Marco, we'd probably have won a few more games.

probably because the cards weren't quite sure if his arm was truly dead

looks like now they are

 

[PolarVortex]

3/38 is okay. Makes the acquisition better. But this trade is not really about the playoff drive. It's about the next two-three years. In other words, it's a lot like acquiring Erasmo Rameriz. Both of these guys will be in our rotation next year.

It would have been nice if we had acquired a high end rental for the playoff push. When you are as close as this team is, and you haven't made the playoffs in 16 years, it seems like the prudent thing to do.

 

[PolarVortex]

Here is a little more break down on his season so far this year:
He opened the season with 9 straight quality starts and had a 1.91/0.93/.210 on May 24th.
Since then he only has 5 quality starts in 17 tries and has a 6.70 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP. So whatever is wrong with him dates all the way back to late May. Hopefully it is a mechanical thing that Stottlemyre and Servais have spotted, and not an injury. But, those two don't have the greatest track record in fixing broken pitcher mechanics.

 

[NWinAZ]

I am actually surprised how many people on here actually like this deal. He is a first half pitcher a lot like Santana from Minny.

2016
1st half: 111 IP 4.14 ERA
2nd half: 65.2 IP 5.62 ERA

Cezero put it best when he said putting more shit on the shit pile. This also hurts any future deals because M's have yet to show a willingness to add payroll. His pay only replaces leaving contracts and time will tell if they will add to it. I don't see him saving this year nor helping next year. Could they have gotten Verlander for the same deal? Of course not, because he is a MLB talent.

 

[Mariners_44]

I am actually surprised how many people on here actually like this deal. He is a first half pitcher a lot like Santana from Minny.

2016
1st half: 111 IP 4.14 ERA
2nd half: 65.2 IP 5.62 ERA

Cezero put it best when he said putting more shit on the shit pile. This also hurts any future deals because M's have yet to show a willingness to add payroll. His pay only replaces leaving contracts and time will tell if they will add to it. I don't see him saving this year nor helping next year. Could they have gotten Verlander for the same deal? Of course not, because he is a MLB talent.

To me he replaces Gallardo for next year, and should upgrade the #5 spot over Miranda. Having Miranda waiting in the wings for the inevitable DL stint lead by Paxton and followed by Felix is right where Miranda should be; this is where his value resides.

I posted previously that I still think we will have two starting positions to fill in the offseason; it is my thought that Erasmo becomes a solid bullpen arm. He is starting out of necessity right now as far as I'm concerned, but who knows with these yahoo's running the team.

 

[NWinAZ]

To me he replaces Gallardo for next year, and should upgrade the #5 spot over Miranda. Having Miranda waiting in the wings for the inevitable DL stint lead by Paxton and followed by Felix is right where Miranda should be; this is where his value resides.

I posted previously that I still think we will have two starting positions to fill in the offseason; it is my thought that Erasmo becomes a solid bullpen arm. He is starting out of necessity right now as far as I'm concerned, but who knows with these yahoo's running the team.

A $13M per year #5 does not help this team. If they sign 2 studs next year, then totally agree but they have yet to show money is no issue. And he is a #5 pitching in the #2 or #3 spot for this team. He has shown he has done little since leaving the Reds.

 

[NWinAZ]

Leake’s contract includes full no-trade protection, so his approval was required for the deal to go through. He has indeed waived the clause, per Nightengale (Twitter link). Notably, Leake has spoken of his desire to be closer to family in Arizona and will now at least get to spend Spring Training there; that motivation and others may have aided his decision.

 

[Mariners_44]

A $13M per year #5 does not help this team. If they sign 2 studs next year, then totally agree but they have yet to show money is no issue. And he is a #5 pitching in the #2 or #3 spot for this team. He has shown he has done little since leaving the Reds.

To me he is better than Gallardo, and more reliable than Miranda. So when comparing the rotation from this year to next its a good deal IF, and only IF, we cinch up a #2 & #3. Like I said, land Darvish and Arrieta then we are on to something. Go into the 2018 season with him any higher than the #4 and it'll be 2017 all over.

 

[NWinAZ]

To me he is better than Gallardo, and more reliable than Miranda. So when comparing the rotation from this year to next its a good deal IF, and only IF, we cinch up a #2 & #3. Like I said, land Darvish and Arrieta then we are on to something. Go into the 2018 season with him any higher than the #4 and it'll be 2017 all over.

 

[unlvmariners]

The name didn't ring a bell so I figured he wasn't a top 30 prospect in the organization.

I follow the minors pretty close so I recognized him, but he hasn't developed much since we signed him. Still young but no value to Mariners. So in that regard getting a major league pitcher for a guy that may never see the MLB is a good trade in my book.

 

[NWinAZ]

I follow the minors pretty close so I recognized him, but he hasn't developed much since we signed him. Still young but no value to Mariners. So in that regard getting a major league pitcher for a guy that may never see the MLB is a good trade in my book.

Except if the $38M anchor gets in our way of signing talent.

 

[Mariners_44]

Except if the $38M anchor gets in our way of signing talent.

I don't know that cap numbers so correct me if I'm wrong, but Gallardo & Iwakuma coming off the books should covers Leakes salary for next year with a couple million left over?

If so, thats an upgrade from this year to next. BUT, they need to sign two quality pitchers for this to make sense. Erasmo should not be considered in the rotation, he needs to be in the bullpen. Shit, the only guy in our rotation today that should even be considered next year is Miranda and that's as first in line once Paxton goes on the DL. That's how bad it is right now.

 

[unlvmariners]

Except if the $38M anchor gets in our way of signing talent.

True, and you know it will. Dipoto probably already has his rotation set for next season and Leake was the final step in his masterpiece starting rotation. There will probably be a 30 for 30 about the 2018 Mariners starting rotation "ESPN 30 for 30: The Clusterfuck" - The Mariners use 42 different starting pitchers headlined by Connor McGregor on their way to a world series