Let's make this clear

[gohusk]

A Head Coach Botched The End Of The Super Bowl, And It Wasn’t Pete Carroll | FiveThirtyEight

Odds were better with 2 running plays vs 1 passing play and 2 running plays for sure, but this is the math as the author breaks it down. Call it over thinking, but that's what happened here.

We're not talking about run vs. pass. We're talking about what pass he called. It was absolutely idiotic. That article is a bunch of fluff. He called a slant over the middle when he has the most mobile qb in the league who has never had success throwing that route. That is the worst play call you're ever going to see in your entire life and Bevell is a fucking idiot for calling it.

 

[WizardHawk]

We're not talking about run vs. pass. We're talking about what pass he called. It was absolutely idiotic. That article is a bunch of fluff. He called a slant over the middle when he has the most mobile qb in the league who has never had success throwing that route. That is the worst play call you're ever going to see in your entire life and Bevell is a fucking idiot for calling it.

So he should have still not gone to Lynch, but rather thrown to the outside where Browner or Revis were? Yeah, that's MUCH better.

The better call is screw having 3 shots at it. Take your best shot and use your TO if needed to do it again. And do so with your stud RB.

As for "we're" all talking about that, I'm afraid that's not the case as most are saying give it to the beast, not pass it to begin with. You are in a minority that believes a pass was still the best call, just a different one.

 

[CakesW]

Honestly guys....you want to blame somebody...


I'd take a good, hard look at Ricardo Lockette....

We all know he isn't Larry Fitzgerald or Anquan Boldin....but his effort was pretty bad...

Try to find the replay that shows his hands.... He was probably Never going to catch that ball, Butler or no Butler....the way he reached for the ball, there was basically no chance the ball wasn't going to get to his body ( a big no-no, but more so on the goal line).


Like I've stated....the play call was awful....but the execution was even worse.

 

[gohusk]

So he should have still not gone to Lynch, but rather thrown to the outside where Browner or Revis were? Yeah, that's MUCH better.

The better call is screw having 3 shots at it. Take your best shot and use your TO if needed to do it again. And do so with your stud RB.

As for "we're" all talking about that, I'm afraid that's not the case as most are saying give it to the beast, not pass it to begin with. You are in a minority that believes a pass was still the best call, just a different one.

ROLL HIM OUT! Derp, duh, derp, let's throw a slant even though Wilson sucks at it, even though he's got a yard to get and has shown he can score with his feet. But derp, duh, derp, Bevell is so well respected, derp!

 

[WizardHawk]

ROLL HIM OUT! Derp, duh, derp, let's throw a slant even though Wilson sucks at it, even though he's got a yard to get and has shown he can score with his feet. But derp, duh, derp, Bevell is so well respected, derp!

You are bound and determined to be a dumbass today aren't you?

Don't throw it at all. Run it. You have the best back in the league. You don't NEED to throw it at all.

 

[jerseyhawksfan79]

Anyone that justifies not using Lynch with 3 downs, a time-out in your hip pocket, just inside the 1 yard line, is a football moron .... Let's just make that clear right now ....

Lynch could have been used twice and RW on a read option where he rolls out to the corner of the endzone would have been perfectly fine as well. Yet Bevell can't figure that out.

 

[Vitamike]

A Head Coach Botched The End Of The Super Bowl, And It Wasn’t Pete Carroll | FiveThirtyEight

Odds were better with 2 running plays vs 1 passing play and 2 running plays for sure, but this is the math as the author breaks it down. Call it over thinking, but that's what happened here.

What a joke of an article!

First, the whole premise of this article was based on bad 'math'.

The author starts out stating there was only one timeout with 26 seconds left as he pits his 'math' figures to compare the two coaches. But the showdown started well before that. Actually with 1 minute and 2 seconds left in the game. That is when both coaches had the opportunity to call a timeout to extend the game after the Lynch drive to the 1/2 yard line to goal.

At this time both Pete and Bill can call a timeout here. If Pete does than it gives beast mode three full shots at the endzone from the 1/2 yard line. That should be more than enough time to get three plays off but Pete rolls the dice in hopes that Bill will call the timeout instead and the poker game begins.

Bill does not call in Pete's bluff here and holds off to force the eventual scenario the author begins with so the whole article is based on bad 'math'.

Second the author moves his scenario to a favorable position on the final kickoff putting the Pats at the 40 yard line to increase his scenario's 'math' numbers yet never accounts for the time difference moving them from the 25 yard average to the 40 where his 'numbers' work best. Besides that there were 6 touchbacks in the game and 7 starting out behind the 20. The Pat's average starting field position after a kickoff was at the 30 and yet the Author wants us to accept the Pats would be starting 3 yards beyond their best starting position of the night based on what he calls a 'bad' AFA model.

Next, the Author never accounts for the Seahawks top ranked defense in the final drive scenario yet accounts for the Pats offensive ranking with just 20 seconds left even though Seattle had three attempts to score which could gobble up much of the time. We should account for another few seconds to run off for that play if the Seahawks scored running the ball instead of the int scenario and another few if we expect the Patriots to make a run back to get somewhere between the 20 and the 40 yard line. In my mind, there is no more than 18 seconds to get the ball into field goal position from the 30. A much harder task, yet a figure based on the Pats actual average that night than the Authors scenario.

Last, if the whole purpose was to 'win the game', use up clock and not score a TD on that play than why put the ball in play on that pass play, that was eventually intercepted, in the first place? You are still in the same scenario the Author complains about in the first place, giving the ball to Marshawn and scoring, with the same amount of time available for the Pats to comeback and score anyway, right?


Look Bill out played Pete in this scenario whichever way you look at it.

Plain and simple.

These guys like the Author can 'spin' it however they want but Pete got outplayed and was forced to throw the ball on one of those three downs because of it.

Daddy always said, figures never lie but Liars always figure.

Wiz, I'm surprised you ever posted this link to support your cause.

 

[WizardHawk]

Vita, exactly how did I suggest that article helped anything I was saying? Found it on field gulls and shared it. Didn't use anything out of it as an argument or quote any of it. Really, it was just an example that not everyone was saying Bevell is to blame and nothing else as some around here believe. There are varied opinions and this was one. Take it for what you wish.

 

[Vitamike]

Vita, exactly how did I suggest that article helped anything I was saying? Found it on field gulls and shared it. Didn't use anything out of it as an argument or quote any of it. Really, it was just an example that not everyone was saying Bevell is to blame and nothing else as some around here believe. There are varied opinions and this was one. Take it for what you wish.

Okay Wiz.

This part however sounded like your endorsement to me...

Odds were better with 2 running plays vs 1 passing play and 2 running plays for sure, but this is the math as the author breaks it down. Call it over thinking, but that's what happened here.

Tough loss for your boyz bro.

That said, your team fought to the very end to repeat.

What a Great 2 Seasons!

 

[Anointed One]

The times the Hawks had been at the 1 yard line this season they had given Lynch the ball 5xs... He got into the end zone just 1 time... Food for thought...

 

[WizardHawk]

The times the Hawks had been at the 1 yard line this season they had given Lynch the ball 5xs... He got into the end zone just 1 time... Food for thought...

And they had used that passing play to score a TD in that situation earlier in the season.

Doesn't matter though. There is no way you end your season at the 1y line on a bad pass. Don't care how much you trust Wilson. Shouldn't have sent 3 WR's out. Just go power and dare them to stop you.

 

[ElTexan]

Anyone that justifies not using Lynch with 3 downs, a time-out in your hip pocket, just inside the 1 yard line, is a football moron .... Let's just make that clear right now ....

Facts:
26 seconds left, 2nd down, one time out left.
No int's were thrown from the one this year until last night.
Lynch was run in this situation five times this year: he only got in the EZ once.
If you run and miss, call the last TO, then you virtually HAVE TO pass on 3rd, and the D will know it.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 out of 4 downs that series. Given time left and one time out, he had to pass once. What's the best down to throw on?

If you run on 2nd down and miss, you have to call the last time out. Then, the Defense KNOWS you have to throw on 3rd.

If you pass on 2nd, then you save the Time Out. The defense doesn't know what you're going to do on 3rd down.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 of 4 downs. he had to throw once. Throwing on 2nd down was the best time to do that.

QED.

Unless you can acutely counter the above logic, stfu

 

[Vitamike]

Facts:
26 seconds left, 2nd down, one time out left.
No int's were thrown from the one this year until last night.
Lynch was run in this situation five times this year: he only got in the EZ once.
If you run and miss, call the last TO, then you virtually HAVE TO pass on 3rd, and the D will know it.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 out of 4 downs that series. Given time left and one time out, he had to pass once. What's the best down to throw on?

If you run on 2nd down and miss, you have to call the last time out. Then, the Defense KNOWS you have to throw on 3rd.

If you pass on 2nd, then you save the Time Out. The defense doesn't know what you're going to do on 3rd down.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 of 4 downs. he had to throw once. Throwing on 2nd down was the best time to do that.

QED.

Unless you can acutely counter the above logic, stfu

The 26 seconds remaining was not a fact, it was a choice in the way that Pete managed the remaining time on the clock after the Marshawn first down run to the 1/2 yard line. And for that reason the Hawks didn't HAVE to throw the ball on one of the three downs.

Here's the facts:

There was 1 min 2 sec left, second down and one time out after Marshawn's first down run.

Pete can call his timeout here to extend the game and give Marshawn the ball three times. 62 seconds is more than enough time to get three run plays off if need be.

Pete just thought that Bill would want to extend the game and he ended up getting forced into the 26 seconds remaining & 3 down scenario where he would then need to throw the ball on one of those 3 downs.

Pete gambled on what he thought most coaches would do given this scenario. Problem is, Bill is unlike most coaches. Many Pats fans were screaming at their TV's for Bill to take a timeout but he didn't and by not calling it, Bill stuck Pete with that "he must throw the ball on one of those downs" scenario.

 

[ElTexan]

You're csllng for a coach to use their last time out in that situation before 2nd down? That's jncredibly limiting to your options. No one is going to do that.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Facts:
26 seconds left, 2nd down, one time out left.
No int's were thrown from the one this year until last night.
Lynch was run in this situation five times this year: he only got in the EZ once.
If you run and miss, call the last TO, then you virtually HAVE TO pass on 3rd, and the D will know it.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 out of 4 downs that series. Given time left and one time out, he had to pass once. What's the best down to throw on?

If you run on 2nd down and miss, you have to call the last time out. Then, the Defense KNOWS you have to throw on 3rd.

If you pass on 2nd, then you save the Time Out. The defense doesn't know what you're going to do on 3rd down.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 of 4 downs. he had to throw once. Throwing on 2nd down was the best time to do that.

QED.

Unless you can acutely counter the above logic, stfu

It doesn't matter if they think your gonna run it .... Your near the goal-line so you line up win your big boys and play big boy football ...strength on strength and you get 1 yard... Lynch would a punched it in .... And if you are hell bent on throwing, don't risk a slant route, pass outta play action and roll out with Wislon giving him safer options ... It was a terrible fucking play call bottom line.... Even if it worked it was the riskiest call we could a made in that situation ... And we paid for it ....

 

[Vitamike]

You're csllng for a coach to use their last time out in that situation before 2nd down? That's jncredibly limiting to your options. No one is going to do that.

Actually what transpired was incredibly limiting. The Hawks had a minute to work with and found themselves with less than half of that time and were forced to line up for a pass and throw the ball on one of those three downs.

I do understand what you are saying but lets throw conventional wisdom out the door because this was for all the marbles.

You know, one can also say that "Nobody sits on 2 timeouts" like Bill did given what most thought was an eminent go ahead TD by the Hawks but Bill did.

If Pete plays to his strengths of running the ball and playing great defense than they have more options on those three downs, so why not extend the game?

The Seahawks then have three legitimate chances to run the ball with either Marshawn or Russell.

At that point of the game, scoring a TD was the most important thing. Even if they score on the very next play then there are still 45 seconds or so remaining. It's not the most ideal situation of course since the Pats still had 2 timeouts left but as long as Seattle keeps NE out of the end zone then worse case scenario is OT.

I see nothing wrong with having a 3 point lead with less than a minute to go when you can march out arguably one of the top ten Superbowl defenses of all time.

By the way, as a parting gift, Pete still has that timeout in his pocket, doesn't he?

 

[gohusk]

Facts:
26 seconds left, 2nd down, one time out left.
No int's were thrown from the one this year until last night.
Lynch was run in this situation five times this year: he only got in the EZ once.
If you run and miss, call the last TO, then you virtually HAVE TO pass on 3rd, and the D will know it.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 out of 4 downs that series. Given time left and one time out, he had to pass once. What's the best down to throw on?

If you run on 2nd down and miss, you have to call the last time out. Then, the Defense KNOWS you have to throw on 3rd.

If you pass on 2nd, then you save the Time Out. The defense doesn't know what you're going to do on 3rd down.

Carroll was going to run Lynch 3 of 4 downs. he had to throw once. Throwing on 2nd down was the best time to do that.

QED.

Unless you can acutely counter the above logic, stfu

You dipshit. It isn't the fact that they ran the ball. It's the play they called, which absolutely goes against what the team is on offense. If you want to make half-baked, posts then stfu and take your half-baked opinions to the main board.

 

[boogiewithstu2007]

Actually what transpired was incredibly limiting. The Hawks had a minute to work with and found themselves with less than half of that time and were forced to line up for a pass and throw the ball on one of those three downs.

I do understand what you are saying but lets throw conventional wisdom out the door because this was for all the marbles.

You know, one can also say that "Nobody sits on 2 timeouts" like Bill did given what most thought was an eminent go ahead TD by the Hawks but Bill did.

If Pete plays to his strengths of running the ball and playing great defense than they have more options on those three downs, so why not extend the game?

The Seahawks then have three legitimate chances to run the ball with either Marshawn or Russell.

At that point of the game, scoring a TD was the most important thing. Even if they score on the very next play then there are still 45 seconds or so remaining. It's not the most ideal situation of course since the Pats still had 2 timeouts left but as long as Seattle keeps NE out of the end zone then worse case scenario is OT.

I see nothing wrong with having a 3 point lead with less than a minute to go when you can march out arguably one of the top ten Superbowl defenses of all time.

By the way, as a parting gift, Pete still has that timeout in his pocket, doesn't he?

Your 100 percent correct....

 

[ElTexan]

You dipshit. It isn't the fact that they ran the ball. It's the play they called, which absolutely goes against what the team is on offense. If you want to make half-baked, posts then stfu and take your half-baked opinions to the main board.

I'm not a dipshit. 99.9% of people are calling this the dumbest call because they didn't hand the ball to Lynch including the OP which is why I wrote this. And you know it. Dumb. Fuck. Learn to read.

 

[WizardHawk]

I see nothing wrong with having a 3 point lead with less than a minute to go when you can march out arguably one of the top ten Superbowl defenses of all time.

WRONG. They started the game with an above average super bowl defense for sure (several key guys on IR, but still a pretty strong unit). Losing Lane and Avril dropped that down to average or below when you factor in that after the game ended we learned Thomas is getting shoulder surgery, Sherman Tommy John, Kam work on his knee, and of course Lane snapped his arm completely and will be gone for a while after his surgery.

And the offense/coaches knew all of that.

Brady had just marched at will to a TD twice that quarter after Avril went down. In fact that last drive they never even faced a 3rd down.

That defense was NOT going to stop Brady again. No chance. NONE.