Game Thread: Let The Games Begin.....

[Msfann]

Teams that don't make the playoffs for 5 years in a row should be forced to sell to another owner in THAT CITY, You win you keep your team. You act like the Mariners and you get your team taken away from you. They need a try or gtfo rule.

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[NWinAZ]

Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports that the Phillies have re-signed Didi Gregorius to a two-year contract.​

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic adds that the contract will be worth $28 million. With the rest of the free agent shortstops on the market finding homes within the past week, it seemed almost inevitable that the Phillies would look to bring back Gregorius, and now it's official. With and and J.T. Realmuto back in the fold, the Phillies offense should be just as strong as it was during the 2020 season.

 

[NWinAZ]

Remember just a few years back when he was a big prospect?

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Astros signed OF Steven Souza to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.​

Jon Morosi of MLB Network was the first to report that the two sides had reached an agreement, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that it will be a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Once considered one of the more intriguing power and speed combinations in the game, Souza has been ravaged by injuries and seen his production fall off of a cliff in recent years. The 31-year-old appeared in just 11 games for the Cubs in 2020, slashing a woeful .148/.258/.333 with one homer, five RBI and a 15/4 K/BB ratio in 31 plate appearances. If he makes the Opening Day roster, it'll likely be as a fourth outfielder, which may push Chas McCormick back to the minors to begin the season.

 

[NWinAZ]

This guy has future Mariners written all over him...

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According to Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, Hyeon-jong Yang has ended contract negotiations to remain with the Kia Tigers in the Korea Baseball Organization and will instead pursue a contract in Major League Baseball.​

The 32-year-old southpaw is coming off of a disappointing 2020 season where he registered a 4.70 ERA, 1.42 WHIP 149/64 K/BB ratio in 172 1/3 innings. However, in 2019 he posted a terrific 2.29 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 163/33 K/BB ratio across 184 2/3 innings. He's reportedly open to any deal that guarantees him a spot on the 40-man roster - even if that means having to begin the season in the minor leagues. With so many teams in the market for starting pitching depth - and the recent success of other hurlers that have come over from the KBO -- it would be surprising if Yang doesn't land the contract that he's looking for.

 

[seahawksfan234]

I'm too lazy to find the article, but I saw how Dipoto is essentially being neutered by ownership on how much money he can spend. First person I thought of was @NWinAZ

I recall the justification being something along the lines of so they have more to spend next free agency period but I find that to be complete bullshit. Strategically speaking, I do believe that they shouldn't spend now and should save for next offseason when we see where we're at, but ownership is not doing this with building a winning organization in mind. I sincerely believe this was a business decision because the ownership group wants to save money with revenue being down in 2020.

I've become jaded, but this is the biggest signal to me that the ownership group doesn't care about winning and all they care about is maximizing the profit on their investment.

My biggest concern going forward is that the organization will not commit to additional payroll unless they believe they'll see a corresponding return on investment.

 

[wazzu31]

Remember just a few years back when he was a big prospect?

-----------------------------

Astros signed OF Steven Souza to a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training.​

Jon Morosi of MLB Network was the first to report that the two sides had reached an agreement, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that it will be a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training. Once considered one of the more intriguing power and speed combinations in the game, Souza has been ravaged by injuries and seen his production fall off of a cliff in recent years. The 31-year-old appeared in just 11 games for the Cubs in 2020, slashing a woeful .148/.258/.333 with one homer, five RBI and a 15/4 K/BB ratio in 31 plate appearances. If he makes the Opening Day roster, it'll likely be as a fourth outfielder, which may push Chas McCormick back to the minors to begin the season.

This one is odd that the Mariners didn’t go after him. Jerry literally described him as one of the “missing pieces”. Though, I actually wouldn’t have minded seeing him signed.

 

[wazzu31]

I'm too lazy to find the article, but I saw how Dipoto is essentially being neutered by ownership on how much money he can spend. First person I thought of was @NWinAZ

I recall the justification being something along the lines of so they have more to spend next free agency period but I find that to be complete bullshit. Strategically speaking, I do believe that they shouldn't spend now and should save for next offseason when we see where we're at, but ownership is not doing this with building a winning organization in mind. I sincerely believe this was a business decision because the ownership group wants to save money with revenue being down in 2020.

I've become jaded, but this is the biggest signal to me that the ownership group doesn't care about winning and all they care about is maximizing the profit on their investment.

My biggest concern going forward is that the organization will not commit to additional payroll unless they believe they'll see a corresponding return on investment.

Your last part is the most aggravating thing. I can understand from a short sided business perspective of not wanting to spend a lot money but the Seattle Mariners are literally in an unprecedented situation in sports franchises.

A. They have a boat of prospects who are going to be ready this season or next. Which with how baseball is going that means they are going to likely sign extensions to at least two.

B. Going into next season, they have a new hockey team in town that is already sold out for two years. Then on top that the rumored expansion of the NBA which just because of the angst of the past decade plus, the fever pitch of wanting of a Sonics return it going to rival the Seahawks.

C. No one knows what exact economic impact of Covid will have on the city of Seattle in terms of employees working from home or satellite companies or companies flat out pulling out of the city.

So while I understand ownership not wanting to spend money. In a couple of years when on paper it looks like they should open up the wallet book, it may be too late in terms of getting a return on their investment. I may be way off because I am not a financial advisor but does it make any financial sense to add $100 million a year to the payroll when you are the 5th team in the pecking order in the city?

 

[SeattleCoug]

I've become jaded, but this is the biggest signal to me that the ownership group doesn't care about winning and all they care about is maximizing the profit on their investment.

My biggest concern going forward is that the organization will not commit to additional payroll unless they believe they'll see a corresponding return on investment.

Stanton and Co. are merely a slightly more polished version of the previous regime until they prove othewrise

 

[NWinAZ]

Stanton and Co. are merely a slightly more polished version of the previous regime until they prove othewrise

Realistically they are the old regime. Since Nintendo had no voting interest in day-to-day operations, most of the guys still here were the guys then. Hell, I believe Lincoln is still around as a rep for Nintendo and their 10% ownership shares.

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[seahawksfan234]

Your last part is the most aggravating thing. I can understand from a short sided business perspective of not wanting to spend a lot money but the Seattle Mariners are literally in an unprecedented situation in sports franchises.

A. They have a boat of prospects who are going to be ready this season or next. Which with how baseball is going that means they are going to likely sign extensions to at least two.

B. Going into next season, they have a new hockey team in town that is already sold out for two years. Then on top that the rumored expansion of the NBA which just because of the angst of the past decade plus, the fever pitch of wanting of a Sonics return it going to rival the Seahawks.

C. No one knows what exact economic impact of Covid will have on the city of Seattle in terms of employees working from home or satellite companies or companies flat out pulling out of the city.

So while I understand ownership not wanting to spend money. In a couple of years when on paper it looks like they should open up the wallet book, it may be too late in terms of getting a return on their investment. I may be way off because I am not a financial advisor but does it make any financial sense to add $100 million a year to the payroll when you are the 5th team in the pecking order in the city?

Before I respond I should begin by saying that I do agree with everything you're saying.

I've been working in investments and I deal with many high net worth clients and business owners and that's probably why I've reached this perspective; but I can promise you that ownership doesn't give a shit if the team wins. They care about the bottom line and guarantees. As I said in my previous post I've become jaded, but to the ownership group this is purely an investment. Team is a perennial loser? Who cares? The value of the franchise appreciates at a rate of 5-10% a year. The best way I can put it is purchasing a bunch of stock in McDonalds. Do the investors care that the food is shit? No. They care about making money off their investment.

If the ownership group was honest, this is how they'd respond to your points:

A. They don't care about prospects. They see prospects as potential undervalued assets that can potentially improve the value of their investment. It's no guaranteed of increased profits - and trust me you wouldn't believe how many high net worth individuals care about "guarantees."

B. The Mariners actually profit from Seattle getting an NHL team. Guess who owns the network that will broadcast the Kraken games? Sure it could lead to a reduction in gate revenue, but that reduction could be negligible with proper price modeling. You can mitigate the financial impact of an NHL/NBA team with proper scheduling and price adjustments. Most of the revenue generated is from TV audiences, which means an NHL team in Seattle on the network owned by the Mariners could actually offset any gate revenue loss.

C. Most of the people impacted by COVID and work from home are relocating to the suburbs surrounding Seattle. Low interest rates somewhat drive this, but home sales in the suburbs outside of Seattle are through the roof. With television revenue driving a lot of the profits, I doubt the ownership group is too concerned about this.

As I said I agree with you, but this is the perspective I think the ownership group has. I don't think they'll approve of an increase in spending unless the 2021 club shows promise and worth investing in. Additionally, they are probably concerned that there will be restrictions on fans in the stadium by the time the season starts - which hurts their bottom line.

Make sure your children don't get into finance/investments/banking. They'll end up like me and believe everything is driven by money.

 

[wazzu31]

Before I respond I should begin by saying that I do agree with everything you're saying.

I've been working in investments and I deal with many high net worth clients and business owners and that's probably why I've reached this perspective; but I can promise you that ownership doesn't give a shit if the team wins. They care about the bottom line and guarantees. As I said in my previous post I've become jaded, but to the ownership group this is purely an investment. Team is a perennial loser? Who cares? The value of the franchise appreciates at a rate of 5-10% a year. The best way I can put it is purchasing a bunch of stock in McDonalds. Do the investors care that the food is shit? No. They care about making money off their investment.

If the ownership group was honest, this is how they'd respond to your points:

A. They don't care about prospects. They see prospects as potential undervalued assets that can potentially improve the value of their investment. It's no guaranteed of increased profits - and trust me you wouldn't believe how many high net worth individuals care about "guarantees."

B. The Mariners actually profit from Seattle getting an NHL team. Guess who owns the network that will broadcast the Kraken games? Sure it could lead to a reduction in gate revenue, but that reduction could be negligible with proper price modeling. You can mitigate the financial impact of an NHL/NBA team with proper scheduling and price adjustments. Most of the revenue generated is from TV audiences, which means an NHL team in Seattle on the network owned by the Mariners could actually offset any gate revenue loss.

C. Most of the people impacted by COVID and work from home are relocating to the suburbs surrounding Seattle. Low interest rates somewhat drive this, but home sales in the suburbs outside of Seattle are through the roof. With television revenue driving a lot of the profits, I doubt the ownership group is too concerned about this.

As I said I agree with you, but this is the perspective I think the ownership group has. I don't think they'll approve of an increase in spending unless the 2021 club shows promise and worth investing in. Additionally, they are probably concerned that there will be restrictions on fans in the stadium by the time the season starts - which hurts their bottom line.

Make sure your children don't get into finance/investments/banking. They'll end up like me and believe everything is driven by money.

A. I was using the prospects in terms of sports though which led into the other two points. But this was my question with financial advising. With how MLB is going though, signing prospects unseen like they did with Evan White or will with Kelenic is a massive liability though isn’t it? If 2013 was like now Dustin Ackley would’ve been signed to something like a 7 year 100 million contract because of his late season performance. It was just more of it is unparalleled in terms of having to raise your budget that much when disposable income from your fan base decreases as much as a Seattle sports fan will.

B. IIRC, the Mariners won’t profit enough from a NHL team to make a dent. That was an argument in 2012 to bringing the Sonics back and it wasn’t worth it that Steve Ballmer made and he is the one that destroyed the value of a sports franchise. I could be wrong but that is the argument that made and that was pre NBA TV, ESPN and TNT choosing any NBA game they want. I am not 100% sure but I am fairly certain NBC Universal and ESPN’s television contract with the NHL won’t make Root spending enough on rights worthwhile. Much like Root Sports was screwed over by the Pac 12 Network/CFB because they lost control over any of their football content. IIRC Root only gets left over games Big Sky games because they can’t replay any Pac 12 game. In FCS Eastern vs Montana or Montana vs Montana State are never live on Root because CBSSports or ESPNU always takes that game. Just IMO. Root Sports was a great idea at the time in terms of turning it into a NW version of the MSG Network except MSG has more legit legitimate content and owns or partially owns the actual MSG which the Mariners don’t with TMobile, the Seahawks don’t with whatever the hell the new name is and the Kraken nor new Sonics will own of the Amazon Jungle Arena.

C. I will disagree with this depending on what you’re definition of suburbs are. “Rural” Pierce County right now has the highest growth of any region west of (for some reason) Nebraska, last I checked which was like 7 months ago so could be way off. The difference between Seattle Suburbs like Kent or Fife is different than the brand new suburb of Tacoma called Tehaleh that isn’t within driving distance of Seattle for a NBA game if employees stay remote/satellite. This argument isn’t a hill I will die on and will defer to you on it though.

No, luckily for me I have two girls that are brilliant with their STEM’s so I won’t have to worry about their financial issues unless they get knocked before they graduate lol. My son though is a different story.

Like I said, I will admit I am no expert but just to me, if this off-season the excuse isn’t a good investment I do not see how 2023 would be. I meant to put this is my first essay but from the Mariners most successful financial years ever were when either the Seahawks were terrible/jaded from them wanting to leave, the Sonics were terrible or gone or the Huskies were dealing with the whole Don James debacle. They haven’t had competition for the real number 2 spot since their magical 95 run.

 

[NWinAZ]

The climb to the top continues...

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[seahawksfan234]

A. I was using the prospects in terms of sports though which led into the other two points. But this was my question with financial advising. With how MLB is going though, signing prospects unseen like they did with Evan White or will with Kelenic is a massive liability though isn’t it? If 2013 was like now Dustin Ackley would’ve been signed to something like a 7 year 100 million contract because of his late season performance. It was just more of it is unparalleled in terms of having to raise your budget that much when disposable income from your fan base decreases as much as a Seattle sports fan will.

B. IIRC, the Mariners won’t profit enough from a NHL team to make a dent. That was an argument in 2012 to bringing the Sonics back and it wasn’t worth it that Steve Ballmer made and he is the one that destroyed the value of a sports franchise. I could be wrong but that is the argument that made and that was pre NBA TV, ESPN and TNT choosing any NBA game they want. I am not 100% sure but I am fairly certain NBC Universal and ESPN’s television contract with the NHL won’t make Root spending enough on rights worthwhile. Much like Root Sports was screwed over by the Pac 12 Network/CFB because they lost control over any of their football content. IIRC Root only gets left over games Big Sky games because they can’t replay any Pac 12 game. In FCS Eastern vs Montana or Montana vs Montana State are never live on Root because CBSSports or ESPNU always takes that game. Just IMO. Root Sports was a great idea at the time in terms of turning it into a NW version of the MSG Network except MSG has more legit legitimate content and owns or partially owns the actual MSG which the Mariners don’t with TMobile, the Seahawks don’t with whatever the hell the new name is and the Kraken nor new Sonics will own of the Amazon Jungle Arena.

C. I will disagree with this depending on what you’re definition of suburbs are. “Rural” Pierce County right now has the highest growth of any region west of (for some reason) Nebraska, last I checked which was like 7 months ago so could be way off. The difference between Seattle Suburbs like Kent or Fife is different than the brand new suburb of Tacoma called Tehaleh that isn’t within driving distance of Seattle for a NBA game if employees stay remote/satellite. This argument isn’t a hill I will die on and will defer to you on it though.

No, luckily for me I have two girls that are brilliant with their STEM’s so I won’t have to worry about their financial issues unless they get knocked before they graduate lol. My son though is a different story.

Like I said, I will admit I am no expert but just to me, if this off-season the excuse isn’t a good investment I do not see how 2023 would be. I meant to put this is my first essay but from the Mariners most successful financial years ever were when either the Seahawks were terrible/jaded from them wanting to leave, the Sonics were terrible or gone or the Huskies were dealing with the whole Don James debacle. They haven’t had competition for the real number 2 spot since their magical 95 run.

A. Whoever is advising the ownership group on the business side of it likely has no idea how baseball works and doesn't care. They look at the numbers, say "to maximize your investment you can allocate X on payroll" and that payroll number gets sent to the baseball operations and Dipoto can work with whatever number that may be. The only time he'll need ownership approval is if it's a huge deal and/or is asking for more than what ownership allows him to spend on payroll.

B. This one is hard to determine. I initially made that comment under the assumption that (A) ROOT sports revenue would go up due to broadcasting the Kraken which would benefit the owners since they own ROOT. (B) That would offset any revenue loss the Mariners would suffer from having a competing franchise in town. The financial impact of the Kraken on the Mariners would be fascinating topic for a sports economist to research.

C. I consider anything within 40 miles of Seattle the suburbs. I don't know if that's the technical definition, but that's kind of irrelevant. Housing market is exploding anywhere in the area that's cheap because even in Renton you're lucky to find a home under $400,000. Homes in Newcastle that sold for $400k back in 2010 are worth over $1m now. I'm going on a tangent that'll last forever so I'll stop here.

My comment about hoping your kids don't get into my profession was mostly a self deprecating joke on my behalf, but I'm happy to hear your daughters are doing well and are on path to enter a great profession.

I agree with you, and here comes the "but," the ownership group gets told they should spend X on payroll and the people running the organization have to work with that number. It will either take an ownership group committed to winning or a front office that can convince the ownership group that spending more money will help improve the value of their investment. Based on my experience dealing with business owners they get advice from people who specialize in different things and in the end go with whatever is the lowest risk. They don't really ever get a comprehensive view.

If I was advising ownership; I would advise a massive increase in spending on marketing and payroll. Make the games something everyone should watch and that every game is a must watch event. They need to create a sense of urgency to watch the games. And how do you do that? By improving the team. I think if they do that, they'd see a strong return on investment. IMO they fucked up big by not trading for Blake Snell. They could've made so much money off of him being a local guy.

 

[wazzu31]

A. Whoever is advising the ownership group on the business side of it likely has no idea how baseball works and doesn't care. They look at the numbers, say "to maximize your investment you can allocate X on payroll" and that payroll number gets sent to the baseball operations and Dipoto can work with whatever number that may be. The only time he'll need ownership approval is if it's a huge deal and/or is asking for more than what ownership allows him to spend on payroll.

B. This one is hard to determine. I initially made that comment under the assumption that (A) ROOT sports revenue would go up due to broadcasting the Kraken which would benefit the owners since they own ROOT. (B) That would offset any revenue loss the Mariners would suffer from having a competing franchise in town. The financial impact of the Kraken on the Mariners would be fascinating topic for a sports economist to research.

C. I consider anything within 40 miles of Seattle the suburbs. I don't know if that's the technical definition, but that's kind of irrelevant. Housing market is exploding anywhere in the area that's cheap because even in Renton you're lucky to find a home under $400,000. Homes in Newcastle that sold for $400k back in 2010 are worth over $1m now. I'm going on a tangent that'll last forever so I'll stop here.

My comment about hoping your kids don't get into my profession was mostly a self deprecating joke on my behalf, but I'm happy to hear your daughters are doing well and are on path to enter a great profession.

I agree with you, and here comes the "but," the ownership group gets told they should spend X on payroll and the people running the organization have to work with that number. It will either take an ownership group committed to winning or a front office that can convince the ownership group that spending more money will help improve the value of their investment. Based on my experience dealing with business owners they get advice from people who specialize in different things and in the end go with whatever is the lowest risk. They don't really ever get a comprehensive view.

If I was advising ownership; I would advise a massive increase in spending on marketing and payroll. Make the games something everyone should watch and that every game is a must watch event. They need to create a sense of urgency to watch the games. And how do you do that? By improving the team. I think if they do that, they'd see a strong return on investment. IMO they fucked up big by not trading for Blake Snell. They could've made so much money off of him being a local guy.

A. I agree completely.

B. Is where I am not 100% sure. I just remember Hansen saying his version of the Sonics would increase revenue for the Mariners. But Ballmer had an interview shortly after he bought the Clippers asking why he didn’t just toss another 500 million to a billion on that offer. IIRC that was when tv negotiations were going on. I am not an economist at all, but the argument kind of goes along the line of Root Sports has to pay rights fees for NHL games or NBA games that aren’t picked up by the primary carriers. Kind of back to my original Root Sports was a great idea on paper but the Pac 12 Networks really did a number on them because they can’t air those games, have the rights to all of the Big Sky games that bigger networks don’t take and get the Gonzaga games no cares about. The business model for the network was solid but unforeseen that nearly every single piece of content that would make them a boat load of more money they don’t have the rights too. Root Sports could be a west coast MSG but, they have to spend close to a billion dollars to essentially purchase Pac 12 WA and OR, and buy the Blazers rights and truthfully the most important piece would be to buy the Gonzaga rights.

C. This is where I figured we would disagree. I think it fair to use SeattleMetro when speaking of population for market size, shares and viewership. But I can’t ever consider any Pierce County city a suburb of Seattle. Tacoma has their own legit war going on with Seattle and the more and more remote working is done the less and less I think the Mariners could have selling out. All the hipsters on Queen Anne for some reason love hockey, the city of Seattle sport is basketball, but football, soccer and baseball fans aren’t. In the Metro area yes, but I can possibly say Bellevue or Tacoma a Seattle suburb. I’ll dance with like a Tukwila or Des Moines where it is within an hour rush hour drive. But that is just a different of the definition of the word suburb. Because we got houses up here that are going for 800k that has no business being that high because how far it is away from any local amenities but lots are getting bought the second it goes on the market.

I know you were kidding, that’s how essentially all of my family is about telling my kids don’t ever go in their field. But my girls are way ahead in school so hopefully they can get a full ride to choose anything they want.

I get the whole investment issue of sports. But every sports franchise appreciates (I think that is the word) every year. You won’t ever lose value in a sports franchise. But problem comes when you have the two paths of spending cheap and get just maintaining minima profits or spending money to make more money. Which in turns allows you to spend more money to make more. I know on a different thread we broke it down to where one ticket is essentially worth $100 to the Mariners pre them slicing up the pie just with money for the ticket, parking, food and drink and merchandise. And they averaged what like 13,000 in 2019 and most of the year Stubhub had boat loads of tickets all year they couldn’t give away at $5.

Their marketing team is great but the luster is off. The last two games I went to was a Cano bobble head and Kuma bear hat thing. My buddies and I showed up like 5 minutes before opening pitch and got them and there were still boxes and boxes. So you are right, they are at the point where bribing no longer works and either have to spend more money on the big club (which they won’t) my other strategy would be to promote the hell out of the Rainiers for this upcoming year. Get Gilbert, Kelenic, Kirby, Trammell and whoever else a solid fan base. Essentially when calling up the player you call up an extra 5,000 fans of the guys and when you get 5,000 baseball fans that generally means 15,000 new one because a guy will bring his buddies, or wife/gf/trying to hook up with girl. Sucks for the Mariners hardcore fan but make fans not of the Rainiers but make die hard fans of the players. Which means the gen z’s or whatever this new generation is labeled follow them all on social media and maybe attend a game to see the guy behind the camera or behind the post they liked or whatever. I don’t know. Old way of promoting the product isn’t working and like I said prior, my fear is it will be too late as they aren’t created new fans, just tugging on the heart strings of older fans with the constant 95-2001 promotions. My kids weren’t alive for the Sonics, haven’t watched a meaningful September game for the Mariners and my girls have seen 2 Coug wins and my son hasn’t seen one yet in the Apple Cup. So basketball, baseball and the Cougs aren’t high on the list of things to do on the weekend and that sucks.

 

[NWinAZ]

 

[NWinAZ]