Game Thread: Kill Bills vol. 1

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

I specifically said that in my post that you quoted. Here it is again.

I guess I was wording it a little more strongly but that's the point. More than once they allowed the opposition to get momentum and drive right down the field for a score. That's the problem with that D, you give the offensive team momentum. I'm not arguing but here is a hypothetical. What if the teams that attempted onside kicks recovered those kicks? Would anyone feel confident that we could have stopped those teams in that situation. I'm not so sure we could have especially with JDR's late game D. I think we will all agree that while the receiving team gains possession most of the time, it's still a crap shoot.

Anyone that knows me from the CBS days knows I generally don't backseat coach. I figure these guys are good coaches, see the film and see practices and make sound judgements. That doesn't mean I don't disagree from time to time with plays / game plans ETC. That said I'm starting to really dislike JDR's defensive philosophy. IMO he's pulling on the reins at the most important times and I think it will catch up to us if he keeps it up. Turn em loose JDR.

 

[iknowftbll]

Anyone that knows me from the CBS days knows I generally don't backseat coach. I figure these guys are good coaches, see the film and see practices and make sound judgements. That doesn't mean I don't disagree from time to time with plays / game plans ETC. That said I'm starting to really dislike JDR's defensive philosophy. IMO he's pulling on the reins at the most important times and I think it will catch up to us if he keeps it up. Turn em loose JDR.

I am very much in agreement with you here. I do not presume to know more than JDR. At the same time, I think it's fair to question his philosophy. It seemed he went prevent the whole first half against the Dolphins. It seems at times he's trying harder to confuse the offense than play to the strengths of the defense he has at his disposal. I've seen way too much of Miller and Ware dropping into coverage when these two combined are one of the most leathal pass rushing duos in the league. Use the players where their stregnths are greatest! We saw what happend to the Chiefs when JDR employed the defensive pieces to their best capabilities.

I think we've seen him turn the corner, though. The last two games have seen our defense look a lot more like the defense we all expected this off season. He's going to need to keep this up against the Chargers and take advantage of a team that has some issues at the O-line. Ultimately winning by 1 point or winning by 50, it's still a win.

 

[Broncos6482]

I guess I was wording it a little more strongly but that's the point. More than once they allowed the opposition to get momentum and drive right down the field for a score. That's the problem with that D, you give the offensive team momentum. I'm not arguing but here is a hypothetical. What if the teams that attempted onside kicks recovered those kicks? Would anyone feel confident that we could have stopped those teams in that situation. I'm not so sure we could have especially with JDR's late game D. I think we will all agree that while the receiving team gains possession most of the time, it's still a crap shoot.

Anyone that knows me from the CBS days knows I generally don't backseat coach. I figure these guys are good coaches, see the film and see practices and make sound judgements. That doesn't mean I don't disagree from time to time with plays / game plans ETC. That said I'm starting to really dislike JDR's defensive philosophy. IMO he's pulling on the reins at the most important times and I think it will catch up to us if he keeps it up. Turn em loose JDR.

But it's not a crap shoot. The receiving team will recover an expected onside kick over 90% of the time. You don't get much better odds than that.

To answer your hypothetical, yeah, I do think the Broncos could make a stop. In fact, they did it earlier this season. Colts recovered an onside kick, Broncos defense came away with an interception.

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

I am very much in agreement with you here. I do not presume to know more than JDR. At the same time, I think it's fair to question his philosophy. It seemed he went prevent the whole first half against the Dolphins. It seems at times he's trying harder to confuse the offense than play to the strengths of the defense he has at his disposal. I've seen way too much of Miller and Ware dropping into coverage when these two combined are one of the most leathal pass rushing duos in the league. Use the players where their stregnths are greatest! We saw what happend to the Chiefs when JDR employed the defensive pieces to their best capabilities.

I think we've seen him turn the corner, though. The last two games have seen our defense look a lot more like the defense we all expected this off season. He's going to need to keep this up against the Chargers and take advantage of a team that has some issues at the O-line. Ultimately winning by 1 point or winning by 50, it's still a win.

I agree as well. I think the most maddening thing is we play great when we're not trying to trick people and just playing ball. They show us glimpses of being a truly great defense and then.... Giving up a 4th and 16 in that situation Sunday is ridiculous. IMO you have to attack in that situation and play cover 2 over the top especially with a offensive line that has struggled protecting the passer and an immobile QB.

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

But it's not a crap shoot. The receiving team will recover an expected onside kick over 90% of the time. You don't get much better odds than that.

To answer your hypothetical, yeah, I do think the Broncos could make a stop. In fact, they did it earlier this season. Colts recovered an onside kick, Broncos defense came away with an interception.

I like the fact that you point out the bad odds of recovering a onside kick while using a game where we did have a successful attempt against us. :rollseyes:

Two questions; Do you like the prevent defense?

Do you want / trust the Broncos D in that position when something big is on the line? IE playoffs / playoff seeding? Most likely it will be a very good QB that we will be facing. Personally I don't trust that Fleener will once again let a ball sail through his hands while Indy is driving.

If you like the prevent and don't mind the chances of a onside recovery then we will will disagree. When you have a 2 score + lead late in the game, put them away, don't just let them move down the field and rely on a dropped pass or recovering an onside kick. I think this defense is too good for that reactive / passive / prevent defense. We have gotten away with it so far but.... You impose your will or they do, that is football. We saw this D at their best in KC and we are capable of playing that way against anyone IMO. That's all I want to see.

 

[randymon]

But it's not a crap shoot. The receiving team will recover an expected onside kick over 90% of the time. You don't get much better odds than that.

To answer your hypothetical, yeah, I do think the Broncos could make a stop. In fact, they did it earlier this season. Colts recovered an onside kick, Broncos defense came away with an interception.

I think your like the only guy in America that likes the prevent D strategy.

 

[Broncos6482]

I like the fact that you point out the bad odds of recovering a onside kick while using a game where we did have a successful attempt against us. :rollseyes:

Because it's not a sure thing, but it's about as close as you can get. Do you trust Peyton Manning throwing the ball? Because he only completes them at a 68% rate in Denver. So you're much more likely to recover an expected onside kick than Peyton Manning is to complete a pass.

No, you won't recover every single onside kick, but you'll recover enough of them to make the strategy viable.

Two questions; Do you like the prevent defense?

Do you want / trust the Broncos D in that position when something big is on the line? IE playoffs / playoff seeding? Most likely it will be a very good QB that we will be facing. Personally I don't trust that Fleener will once again let a ball sail through his hands while Indy is driving.

I like a smart, effective strategies that increase your odds of winning. The prevent CAN be a smart, effective strategy at times.

If you like the prevent and don't mind the chances of a onside recovery then we will will disagree. When you have a 2 score + lead late in the game, put them away, don't just let them move down the field and rely on a dropped pass or recovering an onside kick. I think this defense is too good for that reactive / passive / prevent defense. We have gotten away with it so far but.... You impose your will or they do, that is football. We saw this D at their best in KC and we are capable of playing that way against anyone IMO. That's all I want to see.

The problem with the idea of putting them away is that it doesn't always work like that. You stay aggressive, and suddenly the offense makes a big play and are right back in the game. Now if staying aggressive to put the opponent away always worked, then yes obviously that's what you should do. But it doesn't work like that.

I think playing to the odds is a smart thing. I don't really care about style points or anything like that. Did you get the w or not? That's all that matters. So you gave up a late touchdown? So what. The important thing is to win.

I just find it a little ridiculous that so many are dismissing the prevent strategy completely out of hand when it literally hasn't failed this season. The Broncos have managed to hold on for the win every single time they've had a lead in the 4th quarter this season, and they've done it against two of the premier quarterbacks in the league (Rivers and Luck). Now you can say they've gotten lucky, or that it's been because of dropped passes, well I say great teams create their own luck. The point is to win and it's worked.

 

[Broncos6482]

I think your like the only guy in America that likes the prevent D strategy.

Call me crazy, but I like strategies that help my team win games.

 

[randymon]

Call me crazy, but I like strategies that help my team win games.

I wish I knew how to copy/paste like you guys,but I don`t. Another article from Football 101.." Many fans hate the prevent d,saying that it prevents the win. While it "seems logical" to think that it doen`t matter if it`s your offense or their offense that eats up the clock, their is another arguement. Your normal D apperantly was very succsessful at stopping their offense and getting you to a place where the game is all but won. Why change what is working in the last mins? Still, one frequently sees the prevent D hauled out in the last few mins of a game that is not close."

Iknow were beating this to death Bronco6482 but all I find is articles that view the prevent D in a negitive way. Maybe you can show me one that is in favor of it? Serious. I just haven`t found one yet.

 

[Broncos6482]

Well this isn't an article but here's a video discussing the prevent defense, with some big time names both for and against it.

Top 10 Football Myths: Prevent prevents wins - NFL Videos

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

Because it's not a sure thing, but it's about as close as you can get. Do you trust Peyton Manning throwing the ball? Because he only completes them at a 68% rate in Denver. So you're much more likely to recover an expected onside kick than Peyton Manning is to complete a pass.

No, you won't recover every single onside kick, but you'll recover enough of them to make the strategy viable.

Two questions; Do you like the prevent defense?



I like a smart, effective strategies that increase your odds of winning. The prevent CAN be a smart, effective strategy at times.



The problem with the idea of putting them away is that it doesn't always work like that. You stay aggressive, and suddenly the offense makes a big play and are right back in the game. Now if staying aggressive to put the opponent away always worked, then yes obviously that's what you should do. But it doesn't work like that.

I think playing to the odds is a smart thing. I don't really care about style points or anything like that. Did you get the w or not? That's all that matters. So you gave up a late touchdown? So what. The important thing is to win.

I just find it a little ridiculous that so many are dismissing the prevent strategy completely out of hand when it literally hasn't failed this season. The Broncos have managed to hold on for the win every single time they've had a lead in the 4th quarter this season, and they've done it against two of the premier quarterbacks in the league (Rivers and Luck). Now you can say they've gotten lucky, or that it's been because of dropped passes, well I say great teams create their own luck. The point is to win and it's worked.

"The Broncos have managed to hold on for the win". That should be our standard, HOLDING ON FOR THE WIN! Have you ever had a team that you root for make the playoffs and think they will change a weakness and everything will be fine? Most of the time that doesn't happen in fact the problems are exasperated as you play better teams. If you think that letting inferior teams (especially at home) back into games isn't a problem for us, I don't know what to tell you. Not speaking for all the other fans but I think that's a concern mainly because we get away from what worked on D the entire game and let teams back in. But you're right, no red flags having to defend an onside kick several times over the last two seasons when leading by two scores late in games. I would much rather play D like we did against the Bills than we did against the Chefs. After all there was a reason why the opposing team hasn't scored and is behind. Makes perfect sense to change things up when they were working.

The goal for the Broncos and fans is a SB win, PERIOD. Not to hold on and beat teams like the Jets, Bills, and the Dolphins. While those were quality wins, those QB's aren't Brady and we won't even make it to the SB playing like that. Again if you think that playing a passive D will get us there, how did that work in Foxboro where JDR played coverage non aggressive / prevent type of D the whole game? Hmmm....

 

[cdumler7]

Interesting video Broncos6482. Seems like that video has the same thoughts of what is going on here. Statistically you are right it works for the most part probably 95% of the time if not even a higher number than that. As a player and as a fan (us) though watching it happen is about as frustrating as it gets. I hate seeing our defense have to give up the chunk yards and chunk points as we do live in a numbers driven league these days so when you see your defense give up 14 points that maybe they shouldn't have that doesn't quite show just how good our defense is. In the end though you are right it comes down to did we win the game? IF the answer is yes then we should view it as a good thing.

 

[Broncos6482]

"The Broncos have managed to hold on for the win". That should be our standard, HOLDING ON FOR THE WIN! Have you ever had a team that you root for make the playoffs and think they will change a weakness and everything will be fine? Most of the time that doesn't happen in fact the problems are exasperated as you play better teams. If you think that letting inferior teams (especially at home) back into games isn't a problem for us, I don't know what to tell you. Not speaking for all the other fans but I think that's a concern mainly because we get away from what worked on D the entire game and let teams back in. But you're right, no red flags having to defend an onside kick several times over the last two seasons when leading by two scores late in games. I would much rather play D like we did against the Bills than we did against the Chefs. After all there was a reason why the opposing team hasn't scored and is behind. Makes perfect sense to change things up when they were working.

The goal for the Broncos and fans is a SB win, PERIOD. Not to hold on and beat teams like the Jets, Bills, and the Dolphins. While those were quality wins, those QB's aren't Brady and we won't even make it to the SB playing like that. Again if you think that playing a passive D will get us there, how did that work in Foxboro where JDR played coverage non aggressive / prevent type of D the whole game? Hmmm....

What you don't seem to understand is that just because something has worked for most of the game doesn't mean it will work for the entire game. I actually found a great article with Bill Belichick talking about this.

4th Quarter Collapse: Is Prevent Defense the Problem? - Pats Pulpit

I'm sorry, but it just doesn't bother me that the Broncos aren't blowing everyone out of the water. I want them to win the Super Bowl, too, but I also understand that aside from the W or the L what you do in September, October, November, and December doesn't matter. Look at last year as a perfect illustration: the Broncos had the greatest offensive showing in the history of the NFL, then in the Super Bowl they put up 8 points long after the game had already been decided.

So I just go back to what I've been saying: your strategy should be determined by what most increases your odds of winning the game. Sure, maybe if you stay in that same defense you've been playing the opponent does nothing, or maybe they hit a big play and score quickly.

 

[Broncos6482]

Interesting video Broncos6482. Seems like that video has the same thoughts of what is going on here. Statistically you are right it works for the most part probably 95% of the time if not even a higher number than that. As a player and as a fan (us) though watching it happen is about as frustrating as it gets. I hate seeing our defense have to give up the chunk yards and chunk points as we do live in a numbers driven league these days so when you see your defense give up 14 points that maybe they shouldn't have that doesn't quite show just how good our defense is. In the end though you are right it comes down to did we win the game? IF the answer is yes then we should view it as a good thing.

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

What you don't seem to understand is that just because something has worked for most of the game doesn't mean it will work for the entire game. I actually found a great article with Bill Belichick talking about this.

4th Quarter Collapse: Is Prevent Defense the Problem? - Pats Pulpit

I'm sorry, but it just doesn't bother me that the Broncos aren't blowing everyone out of the water. I want them to win the Super Bowl, too, but I also understand that aside from the W or the L what you do in September, October, November, and December doesn't matter. Look at last year as a perfect illustration: the Broncos had the greatest offensive showing in the history of the NFL, then in the Super Bowl they put up 8 points long after the game had already been decided.

So I just go back to what I've been saying: your strategy should be determined by what most increases your odds of winning the game. Sure, maybe if you stay in that same defense you've been playing the opponent does nothing, or maybe they hit a big play and score quickly.

Thanks for the lesson and making me understand coach. No offense but as someone who has a lot of success coaching or playing for over 40 years I will take my lessons a little further up the football food chain. I only point that out because I get a kick out of you "know it all" types that have to teach other lessons. You know, like starting posts "what you don't understand"!

1st, I never said anything about blowing out a team, I said not giving a team new life, big difference. Several ex-Broncos including Mike Pritchard, Al Williams, Mark Schlereth, B Stokley and others all have said they are concerned with the Broncos killer instinct and if they play like that someone will eventually take advantage.

2nd, you play to your strengths. When the Cheat has the horses he puts his foot on their necks. Remember the undefeated season for the Pats in '07? Remeber all the fans and coaches bitching because he was blitzing, throwing the ball deep ETC when he was beating the $^&* out of teams. Good defenses with good personnel don't lay back, they may change their defense and looks but they don't play a soft D like JDR.

3rd, you do change your strategy but that doesn't mean you line up Moore 30 yards off the LOS letting Miami move right down the field. Or 4th and 16 against the Bills you lay back when the play before you forced the issue on 3rd down and a throw away. They showed what they can do in KC.

While you seem to think that it's next to impossible for a team to recover an onside kick, or that a WR opponent will drop a ball that hits him right in the hands every time, I would rather have my team put the game away before that, especially when we are ahead by two scores and we have team backed up. I know, I know I don't get it. Call me crazy....

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

BTW 6482 what did the Cheat do to Manning in the '03 AFCCG on the last couple of Indy drives. That's right, in your face aggressive D. He blited and played in your face bump and run.

 

[Broncos6482]

Forgive me, I shouldn't have said "what you don't seem to understand." Perhaps saying what you're not acknowledging would have been a better choice of words on my part.

I don't think it's impossible for the opponent to recover their own onside kick, or that they'll drop a key pass, I'm just saying that the situations the Broncos have been in the odds of victory were overwhelmingly in their favor, and playing a strategy that maximizes those odds as much as possible is good thing in my opinion.

I'm not saying the prevent defense is the greatest thing ever, I'm not saying the Broncos should always play it late in games, I'm not saying the Broncos coaching staff is perfect or that the team doesn't have flaws. All I'm saying is that the prevent defense has it's time and place, just like any other football strategy. To dismiss it out of hand is foolish IMO.

 

[Broncos6482]

Interesting that you bring up the 07 Pats, another team that failed to win the Super Bowl...

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

Forgive me, I shouldn't have said "what you don't seem to understand." Perhaps saying what you're not acknowledging would have been a better choice of words on my part.

I don't think it's impossible for the opponent to recover their own onside kick, or that they'll drop a key pass, I'm just saying that the situations the Broncos have been in the odds of victory were overwhelmingly in their favor, and playing a strategy that maximizes those odds as much as possible is good thing in my opinion.

I'm not saying the prevent defense is the greatest thing ever, I'm not saying the Broncos should always play it late in games, I'm not saying the Broncos coaching staff is perfect or that the team doesn't have flaws. All I'm saying is that the prevent defense has it's time and place, just like any other football strategy. To dismiss it out of hand is foolish IMO.

That's a better way of putting it. Again I don't mind a conservative D in some situations but I don't think you would argue that we have made it too easy for offenses late in games. Honestly you should have seen how far back Moore was playing V Miami late. 30 yards and he was still backing off at the snap. I know Wallace is fast but..... He!! Tannehill could have throw a bomb and Moore would have had a hard time coming UP to break up the pass. I think when you have a O-Line that has had problems protecting the passer and a statue like Orton you put pressue on him in that situation. The way Jackon was playing along with Ware and Miller I don't think they could have blocked 5.

I'll leave it at this, I would much rather play aggressive then coach scared and let the chips fall where they may. That doesn't mean play stupid just more aggressive. I keep bring up KC and while their WR's have struggled this year they still have a great RB pass catcher, a dynamic TE and Bowe can still hurt you and the Broncos kicked the chit out of them. They smothered them and beat them up.

 

[HOF-ELWAY-7]

Interesting that you bring up the 07 Pats, another team that failed to win the Super Bowl...

I brought that up because you referenced the Cheat. Who did they lose to? Yup a team that pressured them all day and played very aggressive D....