Keeper Question

[tlance]

I actually like Brown to improve on his TD total this season, and am very high on him.
I just couldn't rationalize letting Megatron go in what might be one of his last seasons to post 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs. At least I couldn't let him go without at least trading him and getting something in return, in a keeper league.

Brown won't be putting those type of numbers up this year, at least I don't think he will.

The bolded part sounds like a reason not to keep Megatron. What if the decline starts early?

Now that I see who is available, this decision gets a little closer. Still though, I have to think that pick 58 would be more like pick 75 with all the keepers who will already be gone. I know Lefty is a great drafter, but that is still a pretty big drop off from Brown.

Also, Monkey, nobody is suggesting that Brown will come anywhere near Megatron's production. Thing is, he doesn't need to because he only costs a 5th round pick. Megatron would need to hit those numbers to give Lefty a decent value considering the price he has to pay.

 

[TKOSpikes]

Let's take a look at touchdowns for a second. I guess they're totally unpredictable, but what is predictable is a team's offense. I'm taking the Broncos and Lions to score more touchdowns than the Steelers....

I think Calvin and Montee have a chance to combine for 30.

I think Brown and Bell have a chance to combine for 20. And since there's no way you're keeping two Steelers, I think the better value Steeler is Bell (by FAR), we're talking 9th round here. The only reason I'm saying Ball instead of Bell is because of the touchdowns... and that is just a hunch and nothing but.

If I was at a table right now, and betting on touchdowns, I'd put money of Calvin and/or Montee reaching 15, before I'd put money on Brown and/or Bell reaching 10. However, is Ball three rounds better than Bell? Probably not, so maybe my eyes are just wide on Ball, but that is the only debate, IMO. Keeping Calvin in what should be a monster year, over many already monster seasons is easy, Brown did it once... sure he's a target monster, but where did that get Pittsburgh last year? Their game plan will change slightly, and definitely enough to make Brown go down from what I believe was a career year. He'll still be steady, getting those 7 and 8 point weeks, sprinkling in a few double digits.. but Calvin gets 20+ multiple times a year, every year....

 

[Bandit]

Let's take a look at touchdowns for a second. I guess they're totally unpredictable, but what is predictable is a team's offense. I'm taking the Broncos and Lions to score more touchdowns than the Steelers....

I think Calvin and Montee have a chance to combine for 30.

I think Brown and Bell have a chance to combine for 20. And since there's no way you're keeping two Steelers, I think the better value Steeler is Bell (by FAR), we're talking 9th round here. The only reason I'm saying Ball instead of Bell is because of the touchdowns... and that is just a hunch and nothing but.

If I was at a table right now, and betting on touchdowns, I'd put money of Calvin and/or Montee reaching 15, before I'd put money on Brown and/or Bell reaching 10. However, is Ball three rounds better than Bell? Probably not, so maybe my eyes are just wide on Ball, but that is the only debate, IMO. Keeping Calvin in what should be a monster year, over many already monster seasons is easy, Brown did it once... sure he's a target monster, but where did that get Pittsburgh last year? Their game plan will change slightly, and definitely enough to make Brown go down from what I believe was a career year. He'll still be steady, getting those 7 and 8 point weeks, sprinkling in a few double digits.. but Calvin gets 20+ multiple times a year, every year....

Ok so if I was as big on these two as you are then I would definitely recommend keeping both of them, but 15 touchdowns each. That's a little bit of a stretch to me. Calvin's touchdown totals for his career are 4, 12, 5, 12, 16, 5, 12. He's had 15 only one other time and since 2008 even with the league going to a more passing oriented format, there have only been 3 guys that have caught 15 touchdowns in a season. Calvin in 2011 (16), Jordy Nelson in 2011 (15), and Dwayne Bowe in 2010 (15), there were none in 2008, 2009, 2012, or 2013. It's more likely for running backs, but it has still only happened 8 times since 2009. Jamaal Charles was the only one to get there last year and Arian Foster the only one the year before. I think it is much more likely that Calvin have 10 touchdowns than 15 and the same for Ball, but like I said, if you think they can put up those kinds of stats then by all means I understand suggesting to keep them both.

 

[leftypower]

Good stuff guys. Sucks that I even have to ask opinions on this since there wouldn't be a WR debate if friggin Josh Gordon wasn't a bonehead. Got him in the 8th rd last year and until 2 months ago was my diamond in the rough. .... oh well, the best laid plans don't always work out. ....

 

[TKOSpikes]

Well, I did guarantee 50 from Peyton last year, so...

 

[SmokingMonkey]

Take it for what it is, but I'd bet that Ball gets better numbers than Moreno got last year.

Moreno: just under 1600 total yds and 13 total TDs.
And that was with Ball taking chances away at the end of the season and both backup RBs taking touches away in blowouts.

 

[tlance]

Over the last 8 games, only Josh Gordon scored more fantasy points than Brown last year. If Brown comes anywhere close to what he did last year, you will be kicking yourself for letting him go.

By the way, I do think Ball is significantly better than Bell this year, but I am not sure about future seasons. I could see Bell being the better player once Peyton retires.

 

[Sam Sportboy]

12 team league, scoring is standard except passing TD's = 4. Retain 2 total at their drafted position, keepers must be at different positions. Retention period = 1yr so all kept for last year go back in the pool. This is a little more difficult than it first seems only because it involves quality players at different draft values. Pick 10th, snake. Estimate there will be 18-20 keepers total, with a nearly even split between RB's and WR's - also, probably a QB (Manning) and/or TE (Graham, Thomas) since we play 3 WR/TE flex. My keepers last year were Forte & Demarius Thomas.

Choices in question:
Calvin Johnson - 1st, or
Antonio Brown - 5th

Le'Veon Bell - 9th, or
Montee Ball - 6th

Not much for keeping a QB with this scoring, but have RG3 and Romo. If I keep one of them they go in the 6th but I'll lose either an RB or WR.

Can you trade for draft picks (I'm sure I ask you this every year................lol). I like Brown's value in the 5th but would have a hard time throwing Megatron back into the mix. I would keep Bell over Ball...........looks like I'm in the minority (as usual).

 

[The Foot]

I guess I am the odd man out. I definitely like Calvin but I would keep Bell over Ball. I am not yet sold on Ball like the rest of the Fantasy football world- and I am Bronco fan and season ticket holder. he just didn't impress me last year.

I agree with this. Calvin is a must cause anyone worth more than him will most likely be kept. And Bell is a stud and its not like Ds can stack the box when they have to defend the passing attach.

 

[leftypower]

Can you trade for draft picks (I'm sure I ask you this every year................lol). I like Brown's value in the 5th but would have a hard time throwing Megatron back into the mix. I would keep Bell over Ball...........looks like I'm in the minority (as usual).

Nope - no draft pick trades allowed. Yes, that 9th rd value vs 6th is hard to overlook, the Blount signing does appear to muddy the water for Bell though (or maybe not). Preseason may tell. ....