Keeper Question

[leftypower]

12 team league, scoring is standard except passing TD's = 4. Retain 2 total at their drafted position, keepers must be at different positions. Retention period = 1yr so all kept for last year go back in the pool. This is a little more difficult than it first seems only because it involves quality players at different draft values. Pick 10th, snake. Estimate there will be 18-20 keepers total, with a nearly even split between RB's and WR's - also, probably a QB (Manning) and/or TE (Graham, Thomas) since we play 3 WR/TE flex. My keepers last year were Forte & Demarius Thomas.

Choices in question:
Calvin Johnson - 1st, or
Antonio Brown - 5th

Le'Veon Bell - 9th, or
Montee Ball - 6th

Not much for keeping a QB with this scoring, but have RG3 and Romo. If I keep one of them they go in the 6th but I'll lose either an RB or WR.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I would say Megatron and Ball are the best 2 players. Keep them if you don't think a lot of people are keeping their first round picks.
That way there would be potential to get Bell with your first pick, and Antonio with your 2nd (or another WR)
If you think a lot of people are going to be keeping their 1st rd pick, and that could potentially open up 2 of the first picks in the redraft on top of Brown/Ball, I'd go that route. It would be really hard to let go of Megatron without getting anything in return though. But at least you would know for sure what 1 of the picks before is going to be!

 

[Barilko]

Calvin at 10 looks go
im with Monkey

Calvin/Bell

 

[TKOSpikes]

Calvin and Monte by a wide margin, IMO

 

[SteelersPride]

calvin and ball

 

[Barilko]

oops Calvin/Ball not Bell

 

[Yellow Fuzzies]

I guess I am the odd man out. I definitely like Calvin but I would keep Bell over Ball. I am not yet sold on Ball like the rest of the Fantasy football world- and I am Bronco fan and season ticket holder. he just didn't impress me last year.

 

[Bandit]

Once again, these guys have no idea what the hell they are talking about. You need to keep Eric Weddle and David Wilson. Much better keepers than the crappy guys you have listed.

Seriously though, I might be in the minority here, but the value of Brown in the 5th is hard to pass up. He would be the 58th pick in the draft and he's ranked somewhere between 25 and 30 in the rankings. Let's just say 30th for grins. So his ranking puts him as a middle 3rd round draft pick and you would get him at the back in the 5th round. That's two and a half rounds of value. Calvin would be the 10th pick and he's going either 7th or 8th right now. So let's see what the team would look like both ways.

With Calvin Johnson and Montee Ball

1st round (10th) Calvin Johnson
2nd round (15th) Doug Martin or Antonio Brown
3rd round (34th) Wes Welker or Frank Gore
4th round (39th) Ben Tate or T.Y. Hilton
5th round (58th) Julian Edelman or Pierre Thomas
6th round (63rd) Montee Ball

With Antonio Brown and Montee Ball

1st round (10th) Demaryius Thomas or Arian Foster
2nd round (15th) Doug Martin or Randall Cobb
3rd round (34th) Wes Welker or Frank Gore
4th round (39th) Ben Tate or T.Y. Hilton
5th round (58th) Antonio Brown
6th round (63rd) Montee Ball

Now I do have the advantage of knowing who else might be kept and I took that into consideration with who would be left in the 1st and 2nd rounds, but I like the team keeping Antonio Brown a whole hell of a lot more. The difference between the points out of your 5th round pick is Antonio Brown or Julian Edelman which is going to be significantly more than the difference between Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas. I don't think it's so clear cut between Ball and Bell either though, 3 rounds is a lot of value difference for two guys that are ranked pretty close to each other. Ball is clearly a 1st rounder whereas Bell is more like an early 2nd rounder, so I would honestly go with whichever one you are more comfortable with. The biggest advantage to keeping Bell over Ball would be that you would gain your 6th round draft pick which would be the 63rd pick. By that time we are going to be down into the Reggie Wayne or Maurice Jones-Drew on the WR/RB side of things. So I would say if you want to draft a quarterback in the 6th or 7th round, you should probably keep Bell. If you want to wait longer on a quarterback, you should keep Ball.

 

[TREFF]

I like all of Bandit's points. . And still think Calvin and Ball are your keepers. Until Megaton proves he's lost a step you just don't throw him back into the pile, at any price. And Ball may very well be the flavor of the month, but that potential is huge, and I don't see a big uptick from last year for Bell. Good production no doubts, but his ceiling isn't much higher than where he already is.

 

[tlance]

This WR question is pretty easy IMO. Antonio Brown in the 5th is a much better value. If you want Calvin Johnson in the first, you can always draft him there.

As for the RBs, this one is a little tougher. I prefer Ball to Bell for the short term, but I think the fact that you can grab Bell 3 rounds later would cause me to go that route.

 

[tlance]

Wow. I posted before reading all the replies and I am shocked at how few are siding with Brown.

I am not a big Antonio Brown fan and I love Megatron. That being said, Megatron is the 7th or 8th best player on fantasy draft boards. If you sacrifice your 10th pick to take him, how much equity are you getting on that pick? While I doubt Megatron is available at pick 10, the player you can take there will be a lot closer in value to Megatron than whoever you draft in round 5 will be to Antonio Brown.

The question is, would you rather have Calvin Johnson and a DeSean Jackson type, or AJ Green and Antonio Brown?

I take Brown and Green every time, and it isn't close. Besides, tossing Megatron back in the draft pool offers more flexibility with your top pick. That is always a good thing.

 

[TREFF]

Wow. I posted before reading all the replies and I am shocked at how few are siding with Brown.

I am not a big Antonio Brown fan and I love Megatron. That being said, Megatron is the 7th or 8th best player on fantasy draft boards. If you sacrifice your 10th pick to take him, how much equity are you getting on that pick? While I doubt Megatron is available at pick 10, the player you can take there will be a lot closer in value to Megatron than whoever you draft in round 5 will be to Antonio Brown.

The question is, would you rather have Calvin Johnson and a DeSean Jackson type, or AJ Green and Antonio Brown?

I take Brown and Green every time, and it isn't close. Besides, tossing Megatron back in the draft pool offers more flexibility with your top pick. That is always a good thing.

There are few players in my mind. . Where equity be dammed. .Rodgers, McCoy/Charles/AP.. and Megatron. You have one of em.. you keep him end of story. IMHO

 

[TKOSpikes]

He got Brown in the 5th last year for a reason. 110, 1500 and 8 again is highly unlikely IMO. Whereas Calvin should surpass last year's numbers being healthier. Calvin as a 1st pick doesn't hurt your fantasy team. And there's lots of talent in the 5th that can pull off what AB did last year.

 

[tlance]

He got Brown in the 5th last year for a reason. 110, 1500 and 8 again is highly unlikely IMO. Whereas Calvin should surpass last year's numbers being healthier. Calvin as a 1st pick doesn't hurt your fantasy team. And there's lots of talent in the 5th that can pull off what AB did last year.

Sure, but the swing and miss potential is greater. There is also plenty of talent in the first capable of producing what Calvin Johnson did last year, and some of those players will be there at 10.

 

[tlance]

There are few players in my mind. . Where equity be dammed. .Rodgers, McCoy/Charles/AP.. and Megatron. You have one of em.. you keep him end of story. IMHO

I disagree with that theory.

Some of my best trades of all time have come from getting somebody to overpay for a top dog like Calvin Johnson. You have to look at the big picture in a situation like this.

Brown is a top 30 overall player on most draft boards. If we are just looking at pick slot value, you would be giving (approximately) 8 and 58 for 14 and 28.

While it is true that you might hit on pick 58, I think the gap between 28 and 58 is a lot wider than the one between 8 and 14. Those second tier receivers are closer to Megatron than most care to admit.

The only way I take Calvin Johnson is if a significant number of top 15 players are being kept with something other than a first round pick that is in front of me.

 

[TKOSpikes]

But what Calvin did last year is the norm (maybe a tad under since his knee/fingers were banged up). Last year was Brown's first time in the top 20 for WR, let alone top 30 overall. Maybe it was a sustainable breakout, maybe not. There's no maybes with Calvin.

I have AB inside my top 12 WR, so I see where you're coming from t, and an argument I usually make as well... I guess I'm just blinded by Megatron, but I sure like his darkness.


And yes, it could depend on who is available when all keepers are in.

 

[SmokingMonkey]

I disagree with that theory.

Some of my best trades of all time have come from getting somebody to overpay for a top dog like Calvin Johnson. You have to look at the big picture in a situation like this.

Brown is a top 30 overall player on most draft boards. If we are just looking at pick slot value, you would be giving (approximately) 8 and 58 for 14 and 28.

While it is true that you might hit on pick 58, I think the gap between 28 and 58 is a lot wider than the one between 8 and 14. Those second tier receivers are closer to Megatron than most care to admit.

The only way I take Calvin Johnson is if a significant number of top 15 players are being kept with something other than a first round pick that is in front of me.

I actually like Brown to improve on his TD total this season, and am very high on him.
I just couldn't rationalize letting Megatron go in what might be one of his last seasons to post 1500+ yards and 10+ TDs. At least I couldn't let him go without at least trading him and getting something in return, in a keeper league.

Brown won't be putting those type of numbers up this year, at least I don't think he will.

 

[TREFF]

Well like I said. . I'm not tossing Calvin back into the pile, at any price.

But more specifically, with this case and it being Lefty, the absolute last thing I'm worried about is him being able to find amazing value in every pick, so my take is to give him the best guy to start with and then let him embarrass everyone else in the rest of the Draft. ... kinda like he does to us every year

 

[leftypower]

Appreciate the great responses and rationales - yet there is no clear cut consensus 'winning' combination. Perhaps this will add some clarity. I've been through all the rosters and this is my best guess as to guys currently ranked in the top 25 who will be kept by the other teams.
J. Charles, Shady (both rd1 picks), Lacy, Dez, J. Graham, D. Murray, AJ Green, G. Bernard, A. Jeffery, J. Nelson, Manning. Possible that Lynch and/or Morris (both rd1 picks) may be kept in lieu of Cam and/or Ellington.


If my initial guesses are correct, using current rankings, that puts me in the B. Marshall/D. Martin/Z. Stacy range in the first round. That obviously applies directly to the Megatron debate.


As for Ball(6th) vs Bell(9th), it pretty much comes down to best value and who's left. Either way I go, there it's major value since the RB picking will be slim to none by the 6th. As with most everyone else, I'm leaning towards Ball but we all know it's early yet. ....

 

[Bandit]

Appreciate the great responses and rationales - yet there is no clear cut consensus 'winning' combination. Perhaps this will add some clarity. I've been through all the rosters and this is my best guess as to guys currently ranked in the top 25 who will be kept by the other teams.
J. Charles, Shady (both rd1 picks), Lacy, Dez, J. Graham, D. Murray, AJ Green, G. Bernard, A. Jeffery, J. Nelson, Manning. Possible that Lynch and/or Morris (both rd1 picks) may be kept in lieu of Cam and/or Ellington.


If my initial guesses are correct, using current rankings, that puts me in the B. Marshall/D. Martin/Z. Stacy range in the first round. That obviously applies directly to the Megatron debate.


As for Ball(6th) vs Bell(9th), it pretty much comes down to best value and who's left. Either way I go, there it's major value since the RB picking will be slim to none by the 6th. As with most everyone else, I'm leaning towards Ball but we all know it's early yet. ....

I might keep Marshall since he would be the 22nd pick instead of Harvin, just because I have a hard time rooting for a guy made of glass. Just FYI. And I took into account all the guys that I thought would be kept last night when I did my breakdown of the picks. I'm telling you, as much as I know you like Antonio Brown, you should keep him and I don't really think it's that close.