Jose Abreu is the best young hitter in the game

[pumpkinhead33793]

Did Andruw Jones do what Trout did from 20-23?

No but how much did he improve from 23-27 since there should be noticeable improvement acordung to everyone even though you are already in the league 3 years. I mean we are talking averages and hypotheticals right to try and predict how good Trout will be at 27. Why not find other players like Jones that started at 20 and see their improvements from 20-23 and compare it to 23-27.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

But it's "guaranteed" that a 27-year-old will improve in his next season?

No.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

No but how much did he improve from 23-27 since there should be noticeable improvement acordung to everyone even though you are already in the league 3 years. I mean we are talking averages and hypotheticals right to try and predict how good Trout will be at 27. Why not find other players like Jones that started at 20 and see their improvements from 20-23 and compare it to 23-27.

Why not use a guy like Albert Pujols? Because he doesn't fit your flawed model?

 

[DragonfromTO]

And how the fuck do you know that a Trout will get better??? After all he has only played 3 years and his last one was his worst. Who is to say that pitchers have bit figured him out better and his extra weight has made him worse? There is no guarantee that he will be better next year than this year just like there is no guarantee that Abreu will. Do you agree on that?

Of course I would agree with that. Hell, there's no "guarantee" that I wake up tomorrow. But what does that have to do with the price of tea in China?

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

And you are still sort of missing the point. When I say "prime" I am not talking specifically about Abreu. No one (including you) will know precisely when his "prime" was until his career is finished (or at least well on the downside). All we can do until then is make a best guess based on what we know about how players develop.

So now that you've seemingly acknowledged that he will probably physically decline from here on out, why specifically do you think that what he gains with experience will exceed what he loses from that physical decline? It certainly might, but history seems to strongly suggest that it won't... the cost of experience is youth, and it tends to end up being a bad transaction. So what do you think is so different about him?

My point is, atleast for the next 2-3 years his experience will increase but his physical ability will not decline. Almost no one in baseball physically declines before 30. Some players just start to suck inexplicably but not because their body breaks down baring fluke injuries.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Why not use a guy like Albert Pujols? Because he doesn't fit your flawed model?

Sure use him. Pull up the stats.

 

[DragonfromTO]

I don't. But Trout did have a worse year this year than last year.

You said right in this thread that it was "pretty much a certain (sic)". You're backing off that now I'm guessing?

 

[broncosmitty]

If this thread had been named "Jose Abreu best NEW hitter in the game", things would have been so different. So, so different.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Sure use him. Pull up the stats.

Pujols like Trout shot out of the gates on fire at 21.

At 23 he had his best career average and most career doubles.

For the next 7 seasons following all the way up to 30 he would never have less than 100 RBI or a sub .300 average. He went on to win 3 MVP's and 4 silver Sluggers.

Why can't Trout see that kind of success through age 30? You know, since he has proven himself by 23 to be able to sustain excellence. Hell, he even has the MVP that Pujols didn't.

That is the point. You said Abreu is the best young hitter. He isn't young and he isn't the best. Trout is doing insane things at a far younger age.

So as you point out you can't predict breaking down til 30...well Abreu is 27 3 years shy of that thus his PRIME.

Trout has 7 more seasons.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

You said right in this thread that it was "pretty much a certain (sic)". You're backing off that now I'm guessing?

Well I wouldn't bet my house on it, but I would bet oh say 1,000 dollars.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Pujols like Trout shot out of the gates on fire at 21.

At 23 he had his best career average and most career doubles.

For the next 7 seasons following all the way up to 30 he would never have less than 100 RBI or a sub .300 average. He went on to win 3 MVP's and 4 silver Sluggers.

Why can't Trout see that kind of success through age 30? You know, since he has proven himself by 23 to be able to sustain excellence. Hell, he even has the MVP that Pujols didn't.

That is the point. You said Abreu is the best young hitter. He isn't young and he isn't the best. Trout is doing insane things at a far younger age.

So as you point out you can't predict breaking down til 30...well Abreu is 27 3 years shy of that thus his PRIME.

Trout has 7 more seasons.

It fucking proves that Pujols was already in his prime at 23. Trout will likely have similar years to what he is having now, some better, some worse. Abreu, even if he has every year like this one for 3-4 years will mean that his prime is right there with Trout and Pujols.

Boom.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

It fucking proves that Pujols was already in his prime at 23. Trout will likely have similar years to what he is having now, some better, some worse. Abreu, even if he has every year like this one for 3-4 years will mean that his prime is right there with Trout and Pujols.

Boom.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Again, you have to factor in experience. In baseball, a players prime as far as their physical ability goes well past 27. You can't possibly tell me that someone that is in their first year at 27 will not approve based on experience at age 28, 29, 30 when they become more acclimated to pitchers.

So home come Cespedes and Morales (two Cuban players with the first full years in their mid 20s) didn't improve after their first full year?

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Go to baseball reference and look at Pujols' stats. They are not significantly better from his 2003 year to every other year. They are very similar.

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Pujols in 2003 had 43 hr, 124 RBI, 137 runs, 357 ave. he never had over 49 hr, 137 RBI, or 357 ave after that.

 

[mr.hockey4242]

Go to baseball reference and look at Pujols' stats. They are not significantly better from his 2003 year to every other year. They are very similar.

No shit Sherlock.

That is the goddamn point what don't you understand.

You tried and failed miserably at using Andruw Jones as an example.

Pujols like Trout excelled before 23. Then throughout his prime he kept up and slightly surpassed that excellence winning 3 MVPS, 2 World Series, 4 SS and reaching his career highs in homers and RBI.

Abreu on the other hand is already 27. So based upon the pumpkinhead transitive property he has 3 more years of good baseball before declining and that's if he can match his numbers this year....you know since he has nothing to back up he can. While Trout at 23 already has 3 MVP caliber seasons of support lol.

Great try though,

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

So home come Cespedes and Morales (two Cuban players with the first full years in their mid 20s) didn't improve after their first full year?

They just didn't? How come Andrew Luck just threw that pick?

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

No shit Sherlock.

That is the goddamn point what don't you understand.

You tried and failed miserably at using Andruw Jones as an example.

Pujols like Trout excelled before 23. Then throughout his prime he kept up and slightly surpassed that excellence winning 3 MVPS, 2 World Series, 4 SS and reaching his career highs in homers and RBI.

Abreu on the other hand is already 27. So based upon the pumpkinhead transitive property he has 3 more years of good baseball before declining and that's if he can match his numbers this year....you know since he has nothing to back up he can. While Trout at 23 already has 3 MVP caliber seasons of support lol.

Great try though,

You just said Trout was not at his prime. Wouldn't that imply that he would get significantly better from now to 27? Not be consistently as good?

 

[StanMarsh51]

They just didn't? How come Andrew Luck just threw that pick?

You said it's pretty much a certainty that Abreu will be even better (post #81)....so if I can show you two Cuban players who had their first full years in their mid-20s and didn't get any better afterwards, how is it "pretty much a certainty" that Abreu will get better?

You're not being consistent with your argument here...one second it's a certainty he will get better, and the next it might not be (which you admitted in post #102)

 

[pumpkinhead33793]

Can we agree that Abreu had a better offensive year this year than Trout? I already put up the stats that show this.