Is Peyton Manning the most valuable QB of all time?

[numone9er]

Not only does the Colts record prove Peyton is the most valuable QB, but it proves how bad a coach Jim Caldwell is.

Jim Caldwell is George Seifert part 2.

It's not like Dungy was a Bill Walsh. Dungy got by on Peyton during his time in Indy as well.

 

[MHSL82]

There are a few problems with this argument, but I can't prove that he's not the most valuable.

1. We don't know how the teams would do if their QB were out if in fact they never got injured. We can compare those teams who have lost their QB, but cannot see hypothetically what would have happened if some great QBs had been gone when they hadn't. This may still be true because I can't think of teams off hand that I think would do worse from being so good. Someone more knowledgeable than I might.

2. The season isn't over so if they somehow win 5 of 10, does that have any effect on what Manning did when he wasn't injured?

3. Some of the examples discuss losing a QB mid-season, but a lot of the examples I've seen used are for the next year, when the teams knew the QB was gone and replaced him but lost poorly the next year. Here, the Colts may have not known that Manning was gone (maybe they did but wanted to get refular season tickets bought, but I doubt it).

4. This is, as someone pointed out, a situation where a good backup would mask it. A few of this year's games would have been won by an average backup. If I came in and replaced Rodgers, they'd go 0-16, where this year with Rodgers they have a chance of 16-0. If Flynn took over they may have won 4-8 games. If Alex Smith played for Green Bay, they'd go 19-0. (JK)

5. Anyone who follows the Colts know if the supporting cast is better/worse this year and this year's strength of schedule so we can predict how Manning would do this year (not Manning's team of the past)?

 

[NinerSickness]

Ok, calling Peyton a "choker" isn't fair in and of itself, but it is fair when compared to the best QBs of all time. Compared to Montana he's a choker. But almost all QBs are chokers compared to Montana.

In '05 the Colts had by far the most talented team in the NFL, but Manning blew it against the Steelers in the playoffs over-throwing guys terribly all game. In '09 Manning had his chance to make a case for GOAT, but he blew it with that pick 6.

Montana had a 127+ passer rating in 4 superbowls. 12 TDs, 0 INTs. He had to deal with 2 strike years in his career, and the only thing that could stop him was getting injured against the most painful game in my life time (the 1990 NFC Championship game against the Giants). He even played at a probowl level for the Chiefs & won 2 superbowls before the Niners had either Rice or Taylor. He's the most valuable QB of all time and it's not really that close.

Young was the most efficient regular season QB of all time (against the average). He had a great chance to win another SB in '97, but he lost Rice & Hearst for the playoffs. That hurt big time. But sob stories don't equal greatness; if they did then Bo Jackson would be mentioned with the greatest RBs of all time. So Young takes a back seat to Montana.

P.S. I think Kurt Warner is one of the 5 best QBs of all time.

 

[tallglassofwater007]

Ok, calling Peyton a "choker" isn't fair in and of itself, but it is fair when compared to the best QBs of all time. Compared to Montana he's a choker. But almost all QBs are chokers compared to Montana.

In '05 the Colts had by far the most talented team in the NFL, but Manning blew it against the Steelers in the playoffs over-throwing guys terribly all game. In '09 Manning had his chance to make a case for GOAT, but he blew it with that pick 6.

Montana had a 127+ passer rating in 4 superbowls. 12 TDs, 0 INTs. He had to deal with 2 strike years in his career, and the only thing that could stop him was getting injured against the most painful game in my life time (the 1990 NFC Championship game against the Giants). He even played at a probowl level for the Chiefs & won 2 superbowls before the Niners had either Rice or Taylor. He's the most valuable QB of all time and it's not really that close.

Young was the most efficient regular season QB of all time (against the average). He had a great chance to win another SB in '97, but he lost Rice & Hearst for the playoffs. That hurt big time. But sob stories don't equal greatness; if they did then Bo Jackson would be mentioned with the greatest RBs of all time. So Young takes a back seat to Montana.

P.S. I think Kurt Warner is one of the 5 best QBs of all time.

And if Craig doesn't fumble, the Niners 3-peat. Man, that was a tough game to watch. It still hurts.

 

[Otter]

Is Peyton Manning the most valuable QB of all time?

Of all time? Hmmm... Hard to say. But, of this season? I would argue emphatically, yes.

Colts offense during the Manning seasons:
Total YPG (1998 - 2010): 364
Total YPG (2011): 280

Pass YPG (1998 - 2010): 264
Pass YPG (2011): 186

Even if you look at the numbers just in the Caldwell Era, making a bit more of an apples-to-apples comparison as far as the entire team is concerned, here's how it shakes out:
Total YPG (2009 - 2010): 371
Total YPG (2011): 280

Pass YPG (2009 - 2010): 285
Pass YPG (2011): 186

In both comparisons, it's at minimum a 22% reduction in offensive output and 29% reduction in passing yards. That's a huge impact not only on your offense, but also places a lot more pressure on an already suspect defense.

 

[NinerSickness]

Otter, that's a terrible arguement. Really. Curtis Painter, a guy who barely belongs in the league, doesn't have any bearing on the importance of Peyton Manning. Nor does Kerry Collins, a guy who doesn't belong in the league any more.

The Colts have been in a steady decline for a couple of seasons anyway. And they did nothing this offseason to improve.