Is Miguel Cabrera the best hitter ever

[soxfan1468927]

Why was Kirby Puckett inducted in the HOF? Ralph Kiner?

One could argue that Koufax' career was all the more remarkable because he wasn't great until later in his career. He left on top of his game, winning a CY in his last season and 3 of his last 4. He may have gone on to further dominance.

It still doesn't change the fact he was a great pitcher, and he had enough longevity. My personal view is that 10 or so years is good enough.

Why would that make Koufax's career more remarkable? And if you think 10 years is good enough why would you think highly of Koufax? He only had 7 seasons in which he qualified for any rate stats and only 9 in which he pitched over 104 innings.

I'm of the mindset that Koufax one of, if not THE, most overrated pitchers in baseball history. It's between him and Ryan to me.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Here is some info on park factors: Park Adjustments - Baseball-Reference.com



In the end, Rice probably got some rbi because of balls hit off the monster, but he lost them on Hr's, whether it be to LF, CF, RC, or RF. Maybe those RBI's evened out. Maybe they didn't. No way of knowing, so I am not going to. What I do know is that Rice lost Hr's in Fenway and that would have affected his overall SLG and OPS. And OPS+ too, but as we can see that stat is flawed.

Yet his slugging away from Fenway was 87 points lower than at Fenway and his OPS was 131 points lower.

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Here is some info on park factors: Park Adjustments - Baseball-Reference.com

Thanks. This is exactly what I was expecting.

What these factors do (and they do a good job -it's just that it is really is impossible to calculate) is that they take an adjustment for a park that is good for hitters and pitchers, and then apply what the league average player would do.

What makes it impossible is that every hitter( just as every person) is different and wouldn't react in the same way in the same circumstance.

Take Fenway, for example. It is known as a good park for scoring runs, but it historically has not been a good park for Hr's. It also caters to different types of hitters. The high flyball, Mark McGwire types would love Fenway. The Jim Rice or Dave Winfield types that hit line drives would not. Sure, they get under a few and they go out, but it doesn't fit their profiles. If there are less hitters fitting a certain profile in the entire baseball league, the averages get skewed.

The dimensions of Fenway to CF, RC, and RF don't help any hitters really (especially righties to RF). Even at the shorter distance CF wall, you still have to hit about 17-20 feet high to get it out. Only straight down the RF line is great for hitters, and lefties in particular.

Lefties can pad their average by knocking balls off The Monster, but lose Hr's to both sides of the field.

The system is flawed, and not for lack of trying by looking at the calculations. If a player loses more Hr's in his home park, that also affects his RBI, runs, average, OBP, SLG and OPS. The park factors in OPS+ can't account for the Hr's. Only the runs. Maybe.

Rice led the league in triples in 1978 with 15 and was second in 1977 with 15. My guess is that many of these triples were hit in that RCF (I saw some as well) "triangle", an area to which the distance would have been a HR in many other parks.

In the end, Rice probably got some rbi because of balls hit off the monster, but he lost them on Hr's, whether it be to LF, CF, RC, or RF. Maybe those RBI's evened out. Maybe they didn't. No way of knowing, so I am not going to. What I do know is that Rice lost Hr's in Fenway and that would have affected his overall SLG and OPS. And OPS+ too, but as we can see that stat is flawed.

You'll get no argument from me that no stat is perfect, even OPS+. That's why you have to examine all the stats. But at the end of the day, those four stats (AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS+) give the best picture of how well the hitter performed and accounts for the other statistics to the best degree possible. No stat measures the specific minutia that you provide to an exact degree, and baseball is such a complex and voluminous game that you can't boil it down to a few random events. Though those random events absolutely change the complexion of an individual game, you don't rate players based on individual games when you play 162 per year.

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Why would that make Koufax's career more remarkable? And if you think 10 years is good enough why would you think highly of Koufax? He only had 7 seasons in which he qualified for any rate stats and only 9 in which he pitched over 104 innings.

I'm of the mindset that Koufax one of, if not THE, most overrated pitchers in baseball history. It's between him and Ryan to me.

I think Koufax's 4 year stretch was the greatest any pitcher ever had. But that's all his career was. 4 years. People who put him in the top 5-10 pitchers of all time drastically overrate him, I'd agree, and a lot of people do just that.

 

[soxfan1468927]

I think Koufax's 4 year stretch was the greatest any pitcher ever had. But that's all his career was. 4 years. People who put him in the top 5-10 pitchers of all time drastically overrate him, I'd agree, and a lot of people do just that.

I disagree that it was the greatest 4 year stretch of all time, but I agree, anyone putting him in the top 5-10 of all-time is overrating him.

 

[jdwills126]

I don't think so, but I am sure there are a bunch of people that want to inundate me with stats so I change to their opinion.

The only argument for not all great pitchers are power pitchers is Greg Maddox. Painted the corners and moved the ball around to keep hitters off balance. Great great pitcher.

Miggy is currently the best hitter in baseball. And that earns him a shot at best ever when his career is worth reflecting on. The problem with big power hitters is when they lose it they lose it fast and become one trick ponies like Ryan Howard.

It is possible Miggy could end up hitting 30 plus bombs in the last few years of his career while hitting .250 and that will take some luster off his career.

Plus all hitters in this generation will suffer from the did he juice or not?

 

[DragonfromTO]

Here is some info on park factors: Park Adjustments - Baseball-Reference.com


In the end, Rice probably got some rbi because of balls hit off the monster, but he lost them on Hr's, whether it be to LF, CF, RC, or RF. Maybe those RBI's evened out. Maybe they didn't. No way of knowing, so I am not going to. What I do know is that Rice lost Hr's in Fenway and that would have affected his overall SLG and OPS. And OPS+ too, but as we can see that stat is flawed.

Yet his slugging away from Fenway was 87 points lower than at Fenway and his OPS was 131 points lower.

Yep, and we can also see that he hit a HR every 19.6 ABs while playing at Fenway while hitting one every 23.9 PAs away from Fenway. So the argument that Fenway cost him HRs overall may be true, but it doesn't seem to be supported by any data. If it wasn't Fenway that was making the difference his wife must have been making him that really special HR dinner when he was playing at home or something.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Yet his slugging away from Fenway was 87 points lower than at Fenway and his OPS was 131 points lower.

Yep, and we can also see that he hit a HR every 19.6 ABs while playing at Fenway while hitting one every 23.9 PAs away from Fenway. So the argument that Fenway cost him HRs overall may be true, but it doesn't seem to be supported by any data. If it wasn't Fenway that was making the difference his wife must have been making him that really special HR dinner when he was playing at home or something.

I would also add that there are usually more specific park factors out there but you have to really dig for them and they often aren't released until after the season is completely done. And it's probably tough to find them from when Rice was playing anyway. I know that Diamond Mind does them every year though cause I play in a league, and here's how they had Fenway rated for different hit types in 2012

1B: LHB 107, RHB 104
2B: LHB 132, RHB 127
3B: LHB 129, RHB 86

And the one we're primarily talking about,

HR: LHB 80, RHB 115

 

[rokketmn]

It is possible Miggy could end up hitting 30 plus bombs in the last few years of his career while hitting .250 and that will take some luster off his career

Why would it or why should it? Just because a guy finishes slow doesn't diminish what he did for the major part of his career.

 

[soxfan1468927]

Why would it or why should it? Just because a guy finishes slow doesn't diminish what he did for the major part of his career.

I somewhat agree. I don't think it diminishes the career. But when looking at a player the total picture should be taken into account. Many players have a great peak, many have no real peak but they do have longevity. Both of which are valuable.

The greatest, however, have a great peak and have longevity. Currently Cabrera has the peak, we'll see how the rest of his career shakes out.

 

[Lord Scalious]

Fenway plays to right handed power. In terms of Homers. It rates as above average. The Mosta make take some away...but it give more because of its proximity to home plate. Line Drive Homers make up a small percentage of Homers you will see in any given ball park anyways.

 

[DragonfromTO]

Yep, and we can also see that he hit a HR every 19.6 ABs while playing at Fenway while hitting one every 23.9 PAs away from Fenway. So the argument that Fenway cost him HRs overall may be true, but it doesn't seem to be supported by any data. If it wasn't Fenway that was making the difference his wife must have been making him that really special HR dinner when he was playing at home or something.

Ugh I see now that I wrote "ABs" the first time and "PAs" the second time... both should be "ABs"

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

I somewhat agree. I don't think it diminishes the career. But when looking at a player the total picture should be taken into account. Many players have a great peak, many have no real peak but they do have longevity. Both of which are valuable.

The greatest, however, have a great peak and have longevity. Currently Cabrera has the peak, we'll see how the rest of his career shakes out.

Well said.

 

[rokketmn]

Some other tidbits on Jim Rice:

Rice is the only player in major league history to record over 200 hits while hitting 39 or more HRs for three consecutive years. He is tied for the AL record of leading the league in total bases for three straight seasons, and was one of three AL players to have three straight seasons of hitting at least 39 home runs while batting .315 or higher. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the AL in total games played, at bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging average, total bases, extra base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.[4] Among all major league players during that time, Rice was the leader in five of these categories (Mike Schmidt is next, having led in four).

To add to that last sentence, Rice and Schmidt led all of MLB in 9 of those 12 categories. That shows some dominance by two players over that 12 year span. Obviously, Schmidt wasn't going to lead in OF assists.

He is one of only two AL players ever to lead his league in both triples and home runs in the same season, and he remains the only player ever to lead the major leagues in triples, home runs and RBIs in the same season. His 406 total bases that year were the most in the AL since Joe DiMaggio had 418 in 1937, and it made Rice the first major leaguer with 400 or more total bases since Hank Aaron's 400 in 1959. This feat wasn't repeated again until 1997, when Larry Walker had 409 in the NL. No AL player has done it since Rice in 1978, and his total remains the third highest by an AL right-handed hitter, behind DiMaggio and Jimmie Foxx (438 in 1932).

Just sayin'...

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Some other tidbits on Jim Rice:

Rice is the only player in major league history to record over 200 hits while hitting 39 or more HRs for three consecutive years. He is tied for the AL record of leading the league in total bases for three straight seasons, and was one of three AL players to have three straight seasons of hitting at least 39 home runs while batting .315 or higher. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the AL in total games played, at bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging average, total bases, extra base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.[4] Among all major league players during that time, Rice was the leader in five of these categories (Mike Schmidt is next, having led in four).

To add to that last sentence, Rice and Schmidt led all of MLB in 9 of those 12 categories. That shows some dominance by two players over that 12 year span. Obviously, Schmidt wasn't going to lead in OF assists.

He is one of only two AL players ever to lead his league in both triples and home runs in the same season, and he remains the only player ever to lead the major leagues in triples, home runs and RBIs in the same season. His 406 total bases that year were the most in the AL since Joe DiMaggio had 418 in 1937, and it made Rice the first major leaguer with 400 or more total bases since Hank Aaron's 400 in 1959. This feat wasn't repeated again until 1997, when Larry Walker had 409 in the NL. No AL player has done it since Rice in 1978, and his total remains the third highest by an AL right-handed hitter, behind DiMaggio and Jimmie Foxx (438 in 1932).

Just sayin'...

I give you credit. The section you bolded is the first item of substance you've provided to the argument. That is quality information. It's cherry-picking to a degree, and some of those stats are fluff, but it's quality information nonetheless. I still don't think he's a great hitter for his career, or the greatest hitter of the 70s, or the greatest hitter of his generation, but that definitely take him up a notch in my book.

 

[StanMarsh51]

Some other tidbits on Jim Rice:

Rice is the only player in major league history to record over 200 hits while hitting 39 or more HRs for three consecutive years. He is tied for the AL record of leading the league in total bases for three straight seasons, and was one of three AL players to have three straight seasons of hitting at least 39 home runs while batting .315 or higher. From 1975 to 1986, Rice led the AL in total games played, at bats, runs scored, hits, homers, RBIs, slugging average, total bases, extra base hits, go-ahead RBIs, multi-hit games, and outfield assists.[4] Among all major league players during that time, Rice was the leader in five of these categories (Mike Schmidt is next, having led in four).

To add to that last sentence, Rice and Schmidt led all of MLB in 9 of those 12 categories. That shows some dominance by two players over that 12 year span. Obviously, Schmidt wasn't going to lead in OF assists.

He is one of only two AL players ever to lead his league in both triples and home runs in the same season, and he remains the only player ever to lead the major leagues in triples, home runs and RBIs in the same season. His 406 total bases that year were the most in the AL since Joe DiMaggio had 418 in 1937, and it made Rice the first major leaguer with 400 or more total bases since Hank Aaron's 400 in 1959. This feat wasn't repeated again until 1997, when Larry Walker had 409 in the NL. No AL player has done it since Rice in 1978, and his total remains the third highest by an AL right-handed hitter, behind DiMaggio and Jimmie Foxx (438 in 1932).

Just sayin'...

When I look for great players, am I looking for the random combination of HR + 3B. Come on, you can make a zillion different combination of stats to make seasons appear better than they really were.

I mean, Curtis Granderson became the 3rd player ever with 20 HR, 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 steals in a season...should we give him MVP or anything because he achieved an arbitrary number in a random combination of items?

Yes, Rice had some great seasons, particularly 1977, 1978, 1979, 1983, and possibly 1986. The fact that he was a below average defensive LFer does diminish his career value a bit, as does his lack of longevity (and no, he didn't have a deadly disease like Gehrig...do we also give Nomar a pass for injuries, or does it hurt his career value).

I don't like quoting Gammons, but one thing I do agree with him on is that he generally likes to see at least 8 'HOF caliber' seasons on a player's resume along with a handful of other good seasons when voting them for the hall. With Rice, I don't see 8 great seasons nor 13 overall good seasons...obviously there are exceptions for players with historic dominance (ie - Pedro, Koufax), but Rice wasn't that, and he didn't have a long enough career to compensate for that.

 

[rokketmn]

When I look for great players, am I looking for the random combination of HR + 3B. Come on, you can make a zillion different combination of stats to make seasons appear better than they really were.

It's not like I cherry-picked it. It was part of the story.

 

[rokketmn]

Now, I understand the numbers mentioned are ridiculous, but nonetheless, Jim Rice feels Fenway Park cost him about 10-20 hr's a season.

That's a Willie McCovey type of stretch, but it goes to show that he thought he lost some HR at Fenway. I thought a more realistic number would have been 3-5 Hr's a season.

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

When I look for great players, am I looking for the random combination of HR + 3B. Come on, you can make a zillion different combination of stats to make seasons appear better than they really were.

I mean, Curtis Granderson became the 3rd player ever with 20 HR, 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 steals in a season...should we give him MVP or anything because he achieved an arbitrary number in a random combination of items?

Yes, Rice had some great seasons, particularly 1977, 1978, 1979, 1983, and possibly 1986. The fact that he was a below average defensive LFer does diminish his career value a bit, as does his lack of longevity (and no, he didn't have a deadly disease like Gehrig...do we also give Nomar a pass for injuries, or does it hurt his career value).

I don't like quoting Gammons, but one thing I do agree with him on is that he generally likes to see at least 8 'HOF caliber' seasons on a player's resume along with a handful of other good seasons when voting them for the hall. With Rice, I don't see 8 great seasons nor 13 overall good seasons...obviously there are exceptions for players with historic dominance (ie - Pedro, Koufax), but Rice wasn't that, and he didn't have a long enough career to compensate for that.

Pedro had 8 great seasons by my count, plus a few more very good seasons. Jusayin'

 

[ImSmartherThanYou]

Now, I understand the numbers mentioned are ridiculous, but nonetheless, Jim Rice feels Fenway Park cost him about 10-20 hr's a season.

That's a Willie McCovey type of stretch, but it goes to show that he thought he lost some HR at Fenway. I thought a more realistic number would have been 3-5 Hr's a season.

Yeah I'm sure he didn't subtract out the cheap fly balls that managed to clear the wall that wouldn't have reached the warning track of most parks.