I'm just gonna come out & say it

[Flyingiguana]

might be better to trade crabtree next offseason.

and trading justin smith would be dumb, he has a couple more years left in him and our d needs him badly

 

[joshuar56]

Excellent theory... trade any player right before a theoretical injury. Can I have a ride in your time machine?

 

[Yadahell]

I see your point of trading a player that will be expensive to re-sign when their value is peaking, but why trade your best WR when he just had his best year and you are a SB contender? It isn't likely that a rookie like Allen could come in and dominate year 1 and this team is built to win THIS year. I don't like the risk involved. I also don't like messing with the chemistry that Kaep and Crabs have established.

 

[TobyTyler]

The Niners should trade Michael Crabtree.

There. I said it.

Depends what they could get for him. He's one of the better receivers in the game now; certainly better than anyone the 49ers currently have.

 

[AU_Fever]

Need to keep Crabs. He has developed a good rapport with Kap. Let him play out his contract and see what happens. Let's see what happens with Jenkins although I'm not holding my breath.

 

[Rathman44]

The problem is his contract is up after this season, so the only way he "moves" is if he leaves via FA. Justin Smith could have garnered obscene value in a trade last offseason, but this offseason he wouldn't net much. The opportunity has passed.

Crabby, on the other hand, could possibly be worth a first round pick right now.

just out of curiosity, what would you consider "obscene value"? When I think obscene I think of something like what the Rams got for RG3, which is impossible for a 30-something DL. Were you thinking of something like what we got for Alex Smith (2nd + conditional), a starter still in his prime at the most important position who has proven he can take a team deep into the playoffs? Or maybe something like what the Pats got for Seymour (a mid-1st), a very similar player/situation, but also a trade performed well before Al Davis' passing? I'm not trying to be a smart-ass, just trying to figure out what you had in mind and how feasible you think that was.

I think realistically, the absolute best we could have done (and even this is a push) was a late 1st to a playoff team who needed Smith for that extra addition in their 3-4D. Even that seems like a major stretch though considering he only had 2 years left on his contract and this 3-4D playoff team would need the cap room to absorb the contract - it would truly have to be the perfect storm and I can't think of a team last offseason that matches this scenario. More likely we'd get a 2nd rounder and maybe a late rounder (a 5th?) as well...not enough IMO.

 

[NinerSickness]

just out of curiosity, what would you consider "obscene value"?

I think they could've gotten a top 15 pick for the guy (maybe higher) or something comparable in terms of a player and / or pick(s).

 

[Rathman44]

I think they could've gotten a top 15 pick for the guy (maybe higher) or something comparable in terms of a player and / or pick(s).

wow - a top 15 pick is up there, especially when you consider how reasonable rookie contracts have become. I'd expect only 3-4 teams would be interested in him; a reasonable assumption since that's the system he has excelled in - just look at what he's done for Aldon. I doubt teams would risk a 1st rounder to have him play in a 4-3 again. Given that, it leaves you with Dallas at 14 (traded for Claiborne), Cards at 13, Chiefs at 11, Dolphins at 8, Washington at 6 (traded for RG3), Cleveland at 4 (traded for Richardson), Colts at 1. I don't think I missed any in the top 15, but I could have...

Dallas - they had their sights on Claiborne, didn't have much cap room, and already had (what they thought were decent) starters in place on the D-line. I don't believe they would've made the move considering all the trouble they were having with their DBs. I think they stick with their trade for Claiborne.

Cards- already had Campbell and Dockett. Plus there is no way we trade Justin to an NFC West team.

Chiefs - This one is interesting. Their biggest need was at NT, which they used this pick for (Poe). They already had Tyson Jackson and Dorsey at ends - I think they would've given those young guys 1 more year together to see what they had before trading for a much older end.

Dolphins - I think they actually switched to the 4-3 scheme in the offseason (?) and I doubt they would've traded out considering how badly they needed a quarterback prospect in this QB-loaded draft. So I think they still take Tannehill. Teams are going to pick their QB-of-the-future every time before trading for a 32 year old end.

Washington - no way. went with RG3 trade.

Cleveland - they were obsessed with Richardson, even trading up for him, and I gotta believe they wouldn't have traded away the #4 pick for a 32 year old End. Unless I'm forgetting a 3-4 team in the top 15, this is about as close as it comes. This was a team that desperately needed help on offense, so I don't see them giving this pick up for a 32 y.o. DL.

Colts- no way, no how.

As good as a top 15 pick may sound to you, I just don't think it's even a remotely realistic consideration.

As for your pick+player option, it's too vague to really consider.

 

[supreme_clientele81]

Excellent and eloquent retort, but I maintain that anyone who trades something just before the ratio of its production to cost falls like a rock has great foresight (which I did in the case of Justin Smith; call it luck if you want, but I was still right).

Crabtree's value, like JSmith last offseason, is at its peak. Right now. And he is far from irreplaceable. And he'll only be around for 2 more years.

Now that the Niners signed Nnamdi & Rogers' salary became guaranteed, however, Revis appears to be out of the question.

Only 1.25 million of Rodgers contract is guaranteed. Baalke & Paraag run a tight ship.

http://www.csnbayarea.com/blog/matt-maiocco/rogers-receives-125-million-guarantee

 

[49er4life1979]

Not gonna happen. Crabtree has developed into a very good WR and my prediction is they let him play out his contract and see what happens. I can see them doing the same thing with Crabtree as they did with Goldson. Let his contract expire, franchise tag him one year and if still no deal in place let him walk...I would extend contracts of Iupati, Kap, and Aldon before Crabtree anyday.

 

[Crimsoncrew]

That's exactly my point. He wasn't going to be 2010 / 2011 dominant forever. Eventually, age & injury catches up to you. So if the Niners ca$hed in on his obscenely high stock in the offseason & got a younger replacement at DE, the defense proabably would've done BETTER in the playoffs, plus they would've been able to use whatever they got in trade to upgrade the team for the next 5 years.



Patrick Willis isn't on the verge of a monumental decline like Justin Smith was.



Aldon was injured too. He even needed surgery for it.

I'm not sure we can fairly call an injury a "monumental decline." And if it is, hasn't Revis undergone a "monumental decline" such that we probably shouldn't trade for him?

 

[NinerSickness]

I'm not sure we can fairly call an injury a "monumental decline." And if it is, hasn't Revis undergone a "monumental decline" such that we probably shouldn't trade for him?

Justin Smith wasn't the man-eater he was in 2010 and 2011 even before he got injured. He was still one of the best, but one could already see a steady decline in his play from those seasons.

 

[49er4life1979]

To follow up on my previous post, I remember how extremely difficult Crabtree was to sign as a rookie (the long hold out that carried over into the season), so imagine how difficult it will be in 2 years once Crabs has experienced NFL success. He will in all likelihood want and exorbitant amount of money. It bears watching how it plays out.

 

[49er4life1979]

Justin Smith wasn't the man-eater he was in 2010 and 2011 even before he got injured. He was still one of the best, but one could already see a steady decline in his play from those seasons.

Part of that was that the 49ers rarely ever rotated their defensive linemen and he and McDonald were gassed by the end of the season. In addition, Justin also tore his triceps late in the season and the pass rush suffered as a result. When healthy, he still occupies two blockers and allows Aldon, Ahmad Brooks, and everyone else a lot of favorable matchups. Wouldnt surprise me if they actuall extended his contract by about 2-3 years to free up cap space and have him retire a 49er. Kinda like Bryant Young.

 

[Rathman44]

Justin Smith wasn't the man-eater he was in 2010 and 2011 even before he got injured. He was still one of the best, but one could already see a steady decline in his play from those seasons.

Why do you think other teams wouldn't have these same concerns that you foresaw? Its not as if his age was a secret. Everyone expects to see some dropoff for DL at his age. As you said, youd be looking to get a top 15 pick, which is unrealistic. Getting a late first is a stretch too. Your whole idea is great but it's highly contingent on finding a trade partner. Justin smith is worth more on our team than the 2nd round pick you could get.

 

[numone9er]

Justin Smith wasn't the man-eater he was in 2010 and 2011 even before he got injured. He was still one of the best, but one could already see a steady decline in his play from those seasons.

I don't think that's a fair assessment. Of course he played worse with a partially torn tricep.

 

[NinerSickness]

I don't think that's a fair assessment. Of course he played worse with a partially torn tricep.

He didn't play with it the whole season. He wasn't quite the same even before he got hurt.

I foresaw a probable decline in his play, and I was right. I think last offseason was the time to replace him, but chalk that up to a hypothetical.

By the way, I got the same kind of flack for suggesting the Niners trade Terrell Owens for Champ Bailey.

I would've traded Jeff Garcia, and I would've traded BY after the 2003 season.

 

[Flyingiguana]

He didn't play with it the whole season. He wasn't quite the same even before he got hurt.

I foresaw a probable decline in his play, and I was right. I think last offseason was the time to replace him, but chalk that up to a hypothetical.

By the way, I got the same kind of flack for suggesting the Niners trade Terrell Owens for Champ Bailey.

I would've traded Jeff Garcia, and I would've traded BY after the 2003 season.

i got laughed at for wanting drew brees

 

[RedneckNiner]

Lets get in early and Trade Kaep, maybe do a package deal and trade Willis, Bowman and Aldon Smith too, We could load up on draft picks.. Seriously though Justin Smith's decline in numbers came down to after his big season in 2011 teams started to plan for him and adjust. His impact was far more than numbers can bear out. Look at Defense pre injury pretty damn solid, After injury as solid as swiss cheese.

 

[NinerSickness]

Seriously though Justin Smith's decline in numbers came down to after his big season in 2011 teams started to plan for him and adjust. His impact was far more than numbers can bear out. Look at Defense pre injury pretty damn solid, After injury as solid as swiss cheese.

That's simply not true. They didn't just all of a sudden realize Justin Smith was a beast after the 2011 season and game-plan for him. They've been game-planning for him since he came to SF. He just wasn't quite as dominant in 2012 as he was in years past.